Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Hope you’re well. I need to correct Rayner and Hunter Clark this week, I’m unsure whether to bring in both L Murphy and Barry and bank $150k or bring only one of those two plus Bonner in (but have no cash)? Your thoughts would be appreciated! Cheers.

Hi Seedsman.
pending selections this week, I rate Murphy above Barry, so let's narrow the equation to Bonner v Barry.
The answer to the question "what will Bonner average from here on in?" is the one every non-Bonner owner is trying to determine.
It's tough, as we don't know how much returning players will affect him, and whether he's just has a mini hot streak or not.
Bonner costs $140k more than Barry, which means to out earn Barry, he needs to outscore him by an average of around 27, barring any spike score that will affect either of their cash making. While Bonner currently holds a 97.5 to 53.0 average advantage over Barry, it's highly unlikely he can maintain that.
If we assume that whichever way you jump, you are ending up with a player you will eventually trade out, the rule of thumb dictates, if you are truly not sure which one of the two you should take, you should always take the cheaper one.
I will preface this by saying, I'm no fan of Barry, and have no interest in grabbing him, but given the uncertainty, and the "X v Y" you have presented, I'd go Murphy and Barry over Murphy and Bonner.
Good luck, whichever way you jump.

 

[Rowsus]

I suspect the Happy Birthday wishes are just an annoying interference to/with the business at hand.

Happy Birthday!!!





My question this time, (and it seems to be a Brisbane thing - possibly as we are suspect of anything that Carlton gives us due to previously poor experiences), is an echo of Lewis's prodding question surrounding Mr Zac Fisher. Is he a go-ah?

Actually, Lambert was too expensive for me (have him in the 50 dollar added comp), but Bell wasn't (Have him too in that 50 dollar added comp - yipee).

Anyway, same question, delivered from a different root. Is he a go to get me to the next rookie plus cash? I think he might be alright, yes? Or is there someone that might be better in consideration afetr first two rounds.

Will finish another glass of wine to celebrate your birthday.

Cheers.

Thanks B_S,
you have probably already read, that I am concerned about Fisher being able to maintain useful dollar production, with the imminent return of Kennedy, and Lang soon to be available. Fisher may find himself back as a plodding 60-65/game small forward with either or both of those 2 in the team. Having said that, you have a unique-ish problem in Bell, and already having the better Forward Rookies. It looks to be a gamble, no matter which you jump: Fisher, English, Venables, Waterman?
Under the circumstances, I could see why you might go to Fisher. I myself would probably go to English, even though you have Olango, and no R/F link to get English into your Ruck line. It's more a case of which Rookie Fwd can you get, that will produce the most cash, so in those circumstances, it doesn't matter if you can't get him into your Ruck line. Either way, you are stuck between a rock and a hard place, so I hope you jump the right way.

Also, I 'd like to know what the most challenging question was that you have ever recieved, and the also most interesting question you have ever received? Cheers!

I must say, after answering nearly 3,500 questions, it's just too tough to remember which ones were the tougher ones, and the more interesting ones. Generally you can tell which ones I found more interesting by how long the answer is, and how much statistical research I've put into the answer.
The toughest ones are where you can't really rely too much on stats, like when I was asked pre-season this year how Toby McLean will go. There just wasn't a lot to hang my answer on, so it sort of becomes "your guess is as good as mine" in those circumstances, and I find questions of that ilk a bit tough to answer with much confidence.

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus - interested in your thoughts regarding a couple of my problem children in Beams and Treloar. I was pretty confident in Beams and have been staggered at a 60 and a 50 thus far. Treloar's DE was always an issue, but with a chance to become Collingwood's main man with Pendles on the wane he seemed like a decent pick.

I'm now considering an early correctional trade for both. I went into this season without Danger, Martin or Mitchell (Dusty because I thought there was little chance he could repeat last year, and Mitchell because I think teams will really start making life difficult for him). With ~$70k in the bank, I'm well short of being able to trade them both to Danger/Coniglio - which is a shame. But I'm considering going Danger+O'Meara or Mitchell+Coniglio/Gray. I realise that it's pretty counter-intuitive, to trade a keeper to someone who will in time require another trade - but it's frustrating to see such underperformance from premiums. Would love to hear your thoughts..

G'day Zagbag,
I too have Treloar, and i'm wondering whether I correct him, Neale, or just ride them out.
The fact we've been blessed with a fairly easy Rookie set this year is tempting those of us with no Rookie corrections to make, to trade out Prems for our correction trades, and i'm falling into that category too.
I think at his price, and form, Coniglio is getting very close to a must have. Beams to Coniglio seems like an easy solution to that problem.
I also think anyone with less than two of Danger, Dusty and Mitchell should be doing what they can to get themselves at least two of those three asap, so I guess Treloar to Mitchell fills that need too.
On paper, and given the current numbers, they look good trades, I'm just worried that the guys we're trading out, and I'm adding Neale to your Treloar and Beams, won't turn around, and bite us on the butt. They're all 3 very good players, and have the potential to make us regret any hasty sacking decisions!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

Firstly, hope the bday in the castle was good!

Wondering about Cox with all the injuries that have happened for the Pies - good or bad scoring prospects?

Hi PC,
I too took Cox, based on two major reasons. In that JLT game against the Bulldogs, he looked like he had superglue on his fingers, and was marking everything he got his hands to (then against your mob he couldn't hold uncontested sitters!). The second reason I took him, was Moore was being mooted as playing Def, which left Cox as the key big man in the Fwd line. It looked like Collingwood were about to give in a little last week, and shift Moore Forward again, then he got injured. So all in all, I think the injuries help Cox, as I want him to be the "go to guy", and hope he can quickly regain that pre-season marking form!

 

[Rowsus]

hey Row, happy bday for yesterday. quick one, is trading Zorko to Titch a silly idea? i believe not considering the changes in value about to occur, plus it closes a negative pod for me. can always look at bringing Zorko in down the track, and will only have used 2 trades after 2 rounds for corrections.

thanks for advice.
d!ck

hey d1ck, thanks for that.
It's an interesting one, as it not so much as closes a negative POD for you, but creates a positive one, as not too many would have all 3 of Danger, Dusty and Titch going into Round 3!
It does seem "quick" to sack Zorko already, but I'm a great one for preserving team value where possible, and given most of have no Rookie corrections to make, I say go ahead, get the big 3 now!

 

[Rowsus]

Afternoon Row,

Few questions (assuming all rookies are good to go):

1) M.Crouch - worth going straight to Danger if funds are not an issue and get him in early or to a Cripps type and wait for Danger to drop in price?
2) Hibberd - worth holding or swapping to a Shaw to free up some cash for similar if not potentially better output?

Cheers

Evening t.t,
if the intial thoughts that stopped you getting Danger were you worried if he'd miss more than one game, then get him now. If your thoughts were more waiting for his price to drop, then nothing has changed, so get someone else now.
I'm not 100% sure on Hibberd either way to be honest, and I'm not 100% sure Shaw is going to be the around 10/game better than Hibberd, that you'd need to call the trade a success. Gut feel says Hibberd is suffering a semi-permanent situation, and will struggle to post a 95+ season, but as I said to MC's Mix the other day, if you are trading Hibberd out, you either need to be creative, or confident the player you are trading in is worth more than 5/game better than Hibberd.
If i owned Hibberd, I'd probably err on the side of caution, as there's not too many Defs I have great confidence in anyway. If I did trade him, I think i'd go down, and try and grab some cash, and generate some more. Side trading him would be my last option.

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus,

Was wondering if I could pick your brain:

After trading Ryder to NicNat last week, I have about $180k-$185k in the bank. My team is now generally pretty solid, no more MAJOR issues to deal with.

As with many others, I am contemplating trading out Hibberd (possession count drop, no kick-ins, etc.), but at the same time wanting to make best use of the additional cash. As such, I have a couple of scenarios.

The first seems to be where many are going, which is straight-swap Hibberd for a like-for-like (i.e.: Simpson), then Naughton to Bonner. I'm not completely sold on this myself, and it would still leave me a fair chunk of cash in the bank. Also have Laird and Shaw as DEF premiums.

The second would be Hibberd to Curnow (via Sicily), then with the additional cash, upgrade either Brayshaw or Davies-Uniacke to Coniglio, leaving me some cash. Also have Heeney, Billings and Smith as FWD premiums. The main issue I have with this option is trading out a rookie that isn't a complete disaster, but it would get me two potential premiums (current MID premiums are Dangerfield, Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe and Cripps). I wasn't particularly sold on Coniglio in the pre-season, but his role seems pretty solid so far.

Or obviously hold all trades, and store the cash for a later date.

Any suggestions? Thanks in advance.

G'day TBO,
first let me say, I think Coniglio is close to a must have, so your trading plans should include getting him this week. I don't like the side trading option of Hibberd to another similar Def, but could understand you going to C Curnow. That is at least a little more creative. I think people are sacking Naughton too quickly, and I'm not sure Naughton to Bonner warrants a trade. Of course if Naughton gets dropped, that's a whole other story!
I understand what you are thinking with Brayshaw, but I think Coniglio is more important, so if Brayshaw is your path to get Coniglio, then out he hoes!

 

[Rowsus]

Belated Birthday wishes and thanks for your concise info and greatly valued opinions.

Thanks TB

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

I currently have 2-0-6 structure in Defence (with Hibberd & Savage D1 & D2). I am planning to correct Hibberd and I would appreciate your thoughts on the following players and proposed trades.

I have some spare cash, so can afford to do the following trades
Hibberd => Simpson
Naughton => Shaw
I don't have enough cash to get Laird as part of this trade unless I just go Hibbo to Laird

I quite like the idea of getting Simpson & Shaw as it effectively allows me to upgrade Naughton to a Premo. My concern is really about Shaw - specifically, Shaw has scored well in the past 2 games but do we trust that he is going to continue to play a SC freindly role and output, or is it an illusion/trap?

Do you think Shaw is a player I should be targeting for an upgrade as part of this proposed trade? Further, does it make sense to target Simpson & Shaw in this combined trade, or would I be better off just targeting Hibbo to Laird at this stage?

Thanks in advance

Hi RB,
I'm concerned on two fronts. I'm not convinced Naughton needs correcting, and I'm not sure Shaw can be relied on to continue this form.
Of the options you've presented, I'd be going Hibberd to Laird

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan,

How are you?

Good thanks.

Would love your thoughts on Hibberd in general and what you think of quite a few people looking to either sideways trade him or download him to Bonner.

Or redirect me to a post that has already answered it.

Here you go Zim, it may partially answer your question.

http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Rowsus/page429?p=393974&viewfull=1#post393974

Hi Zim,
my thoughts on Hibberd fall into the following order:
Be creative, and go down to a cash generator, at the same time grab some cash from Hibberd.
Be creative, if you have a link, and turn him into a Mid or a Forward.
Keep him.
Side-swap him to a similar Def.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan,

How are you?

Good thanks.

Would love your thoughts on Hibberd in general and what you think of quite a few people looking to either sideways trade him or download him to Bonner.

Or redirect me to a post that has already answered it.

Hi row

Hibberd seems to be the flavour of the week. His last two scores have been around 75. Apart from last year he was averaging low 90’s with the bombers. I have him in my team and I read in one of your earlier post that we may need to adjust our thinking of how much hibberd can average. I’m thibking he will average around 90.

I currently have Sicily in my forward line and with Sicily and zgl out i think swapping Sicily in the forward line and replacing hibberd for Robbie gray might be the way to go.

What is your thoughts regarding hibberd output for this year? Also do you think gray is the best pick of the bunch out of buddy, acres and McLean?

Hi ad,
I think Hibberd will still make that 88-91 area for the season.
Turning him into a Forwad does fall into my, "if you are going to get rid of Hibberd, be creative" category.
I might be biased, as I started with Gray, but my order for the players you have listed is:
Gray, Buddy, McLean, Acres if it just a points consideration, but put McLean ahead of Buddy, if value is also a consideration.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, hope all is well.

Just after your thoughts relating to Dahlhaus. I haven't seen any of the Bulldogs games so am struggling to form an opinion on whether i need to trade or not. If yes who do you think my best options are.

Thanks in advance for your hard work

Hi blbr,
I'm really worried about all Bulldogs players that aren't Def or Rookies, and even those ones are a worry too.
I think i'd trade him. The best options under $500k, in price order, appear to be:
Dixon, Mundy, Westhoff, Gunston, McLean.
With the arrival of Watts, it looks like Westhoff is really getting up and down the ground more, rather than getting mired at one end or the other. I think he scores best when he's moving, so that's a good sign for him. Dixon will have a higher ceiling, but also a bigger deviation in scores. Mundy and Gunston should safe-ish picks, without too much excitement. McLean is a Bulldog non-Rookie, non-Def, but he is the only other of their players I'd entertain, especially with his role with Libba out.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rows.
Looking at it I could be in a world of pain regardless
Yes.. I have Sicily and Rayner in fwd line but do have
a non playing OKeefe in backline
Issue I have is mids seem ok with TKelly, Holman, Brayshaw, Armitage
However could quite easily lose CEllis, Rayner this week and along with Sicily, Langdon and OKeefe I am moving in donut territory again.
Coniglio seems a must have but would mean Lambert/Rayner to Waterman/Coniglio via Garlett
Not sold on Waterman and could look at Murphy depending on selection.
Also could forgo Coniglio and bring in CDixon
Any thoughts on Dixon? Would mean no Coniglio though

Always happy to help, Slam.
Dixon's draw in the next 8 weeks is good for a KPF, and he has a big ceiling, but Coniglio is close to a must have.
You'd only go Dixon over him, if you wanted a two-way POD.
ie no Coniglio is a POD, and dixon is a POD.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, Happy belated Birthday I hope you enjoyed it

I'm not sure if this has been asked before but i'm really curious if you have seen/made/ any data on the supercoach averages of AFL greats (Hird, Carey, Harvey, Gary Ablett Snr etc.) in their prime. Unfortunately their primes were before Supercoach opened

Hey Steuby, I did enjoy it thank you.
No, I have no information on those players before SC started, though I have read in various places, where people have watched some of their games and "scored" them.

 

[TeeButOne]

G'day TBO,
first let me say, I think Coniglio is close to a must have, so your trading plans should include getting him this week. I don't like the side trading option of Hibberd to another similar Def, but could understand you going to C Curnow. That is at least a little more creative. I think people are sacking Naughton too quickly, and I'm not sure Naughton to Bonner warrants a trade. Of course if Naughton gets dropped, that's a whole other story!
I understand what you are thinking with Brayshaw, but I think Coniglio is more important, so if Brayshaw is your path to get Coniglio, then out he hoes!

Appreciate the comments, thanks heaps.

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi ad,
I think Hibberd will still make that 88-91 area for the season.
Turning him into a Forwad does fall into my, "if you are going to get rid of Hibberd, be creative" category.
I might be biased, as I started with Gray, but my order for the players you have listed is:
Gray, Buddy, McLean, Acres if it just a points consideration, but put McLean ahead of Buddy, if value is also a consideration.

thanks heaps row for your input. i really appreciate your comments. i will most likely head down the path of trading out hibberd and making room for gray. happy birthday

 

[Maccas marvels]

Hi Rowsus,

Time to make my big move this week; considering the following trades:

Hibberd to either o Connor, English or waterman (via Sicily)

Bell to dusty

This will give me the big 3 in the middle of Titch, Dusty and Danger.

Out of the 3 rookies I mentioned in the downgrade for Hibberd, who would you take and why?

 

[BigRuss]

Hi Row, hope your keeping well mate.

Curious as to your thoughts on Taranto, off-kilter PODs are generally right up your alley.

2 scores to start the year that were both higher than his ceiling last season and I’m unsure how to interpret that. There’s a genuine chance they may be his highest scores for the year but there’s also the chance he’s made a 30 point jump and has presented as aviable F5/6 for 360k.

I’m looking to him as a Petracca replacement, Petracca didn’t sit well with me all pre season and ended up in my side as the 15th selected “premium” I have no rookie corrections to do this week outside of ZGL who I may just ride out. My other trade is locked into replacing Crouch.

Should note as an aside that Trac - TT would leave me with 123k as my “Dangerfield buffer” while the rookie replacement would set it at 70k

To frame the question in a simpler manner, should I prioritise moving on the injured rookie, or correct a premium I’m uncomfortable with, and if the latter what are your expectations of Taranto as a break out candidate?

Cheers.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Thanks B_S,
you have probably already read, that I am concerned about Fisher being able to maintain useful dollar production, with the imminent return of Kennedy, and Lang soon to be available. Fisher may find himself back as a plodding 60-65/game small forward with either or both of those 2 in the team. Having said that, you have a unique-ish problem in Bell, and already having the better Forward Rookies. It looks to be a gamble, no matter which you jump: Fisher, English, Venables, Waterman?
Under the circumstances, I could see why you might go to Fisher. I myself would probably go to English, even though you have Olango, and no R/F link to get English into your Ruck line. It's more a case of which Rookie Fwd can you get, that will produce the most cash, so in those circumstances, it doesn't matter if you can't get him into your Ruck line. Either way, you are stuck between a rock and a hard place, so I hope you jump the right way.



I must say, after answering nearly 3,500 questions, it's just too tough to remember which ones were the tougher ones, and the more interesting ones. Generally you can tell which ones I found more interesting by how long the answer is, and how much statistical research I've put into the answer.
The toughest ones are where you can't really rely too much on stats, like when I was asked pre-season this year how Toby McLean will go. There just wasn't a lot to hang my answer on, so it sort of becomes "your guess is as good as mine" in those circumstances, and I find questions of that ilk a bit tough to answer with much confidence.

Thank you, i hadn't considered English and he might just suit. Need to sit and ponder once the teams come out I suppose.

Think I need to spend an arvo reading through your answers too.

Big cheers.

 

[Juzzo]

Hi Rows.

Your expert opinion would be appreciated.

Players in my team who I am not that happy about:
Salem: Had high hopes for him but I think he has to go this week either up to Simmo or down to Bonner. What were your thoughts on him Row?
Bont and Treloar: Not an ideal start for these two but I think I will stick with them for now?
Menegola: All evidence pre season said not to start him, not sure why I did? He might have to go this week. Does not look like being a top forward with all the power Geelong have. Only 66 TOG last week.

Players who I don't have and should think about getting in:
Mitchell: Only started Dusty of the big 3, have to get him in sometime.
Danger: As above
Coniglio: Choosing not to start him seems like a mistake.
English: Chose McInerney for my R3 thinking he may get games.
Curnow: In my team all pre season
Lynch GC: In my team all pre season and is my fav player and I have started him the last couple of years. (Really disappointed I didn't start him this year) If I decide to trade Lynch in it seems like I am chasing last weeks points, but If say Dixon got a 180 I would not consider him.

My rookies are ok, probably only Bonner I've missed but he doesn't seem a must have.

So I can trade Salem to Simmo or down to Bonner and Menegola to any forward, my heart says Lynch, already have Heeney, Trac and Billings.
But this means missing Conigs. I can get Conigs via DPP Menegola/Fog/Garlett. Or should I be looking at one of the other big 3 (Danger or Mitchell)?

Thanks Rows.