Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion
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T Goldstein:
Hitouts Avg:
2018: 35.59
2017: 30.32
Hitouts to Advantage Rate:
Lowest HTA Rate between 2013-2018 is 29.1 (2013) and highest is 32.6 (2017).
2018 HTA Rate: 30.9
Averaged 11 HTA in 2018.
2018 SC Avg when HTA equal/exceeds 11: 113.36 from 11 (low of 88 and a high of 133, 1/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
2018 Post Bye Avg: 110 from 10 (low of 61 and a high of 133, 1/10 below 90, 2/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
Averaged 17.2 disposals per game post bye.
Only dipped below 9 HTA in 4 games and equaled/exceeded 12 HTA in 10 matches in 2018. In 2017 he had 8 games below 9 HTA and 7 matches of 12+.
2nd successive year with a contested possession rate below 50% (2017=48.63%, 2018=48.75) and 3rd in his career (2009=49.04)
2018 Disposals Avg: 14.55
Averaged 115.6 from 10 games when disposals equal/exceeded 15.
Only 2nd time averaging more than 14 disposals a game (2015-14.67)
2018 Marks Avg: 3.36
Averaged 4.5 Marks post bye.
Was his 3rd highest mark tally behind 2nd 2010-90 and 1st 2018-100.
Hitouts Avg:
2018: 35.59
2017: 30.32
Hitouts to Advantage Rate:
Lowest HTA Rate between 2013-2018 is 29.1 (2013) and highest is 32.6 (2017).
2018 HTA Rate: 30.9
Averaged 11 HTA in 2018.
2018 SC Avg when HTA equal/exceeds 11: 113.36 from 11 (low of 88 and a high of 133, 1/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
2018 Post Bye Avg: 110 from 10 (low of 61 and a high of 133, 1/10 below 90, 2/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
Averaged 17.2 disposals per game post bye.
Only dipped below 9 HTA in 4 games and equaled/exceeded 12 HTA in 10 matches in 2018. In 2017 he had 8 games below 9 HTA and 7 matches of 12+.
2nd successive year with a contested possession rate below 50% (2017=48.63%, 2018=48.75) and 3rd in his career (2009=49.04)
2018 Disposals Avg: 14.55
Averaged 115.6 from 10 games when disposals equal/exceeded 15.
Only 2nd time averaging more than 14 disposals a game (2015-14.67)
2018 Marks Avg: 3.36
Averaged 4.5 Marks post bye.
Was his 3rd highest mark tally behind 2nd 2010-90 and 1st 2018-100.
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Between RD1-22
4 players took 50% or more of their team's kick ins.
S Hurn: 61.69% (124/201)
J Lloyd: 55.47% (147/265)
J Short: 54.22% (90/166)
A Witherden: 50.81% (126/248)
Players that play on more than 40% of their kick ins:
C Salem: 65.85% (27/41)
T Stewart: 57.53% (42/73)
H Shaw: 57.14% (48/84)
B Williams: 56.10% (23/41)
K Simpson: 48.42% (46/95)
C McKenna: 46.75% (36/77)
A Witherden: 41.27 (52/126)
S Hurn: 41.13% (51/124)
R Laird took only 7.5% of Adelaide's kick ins with 18 other players taking them and L Brown taking 38.8% of them.
All of these stats are courtesy of the following article- http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin
4 players took 50% or more of their team's kick ins.
S Hurn: 61.69% (124/201)
J Lloyd: 55.47% (147/265)
J Short: 54.22% (90/166)
A Witherden: 50.81% (126/248)
Players that play on more than 40% of their kick ins:
C Salem: 65.85% (27/41)
T Stewart: 57.53% (42/73)
H Shaw: 57.14% (48/84)
B Williams: 56.10% (23/41)
K Simpson: 48.42% (46/95)
C McKenna: 46.75% (36/77)
A Witherden: 41.27 (52/126)
S Hurn: 41.13% (51/124)
R Laird took only 7.5% of Adelaide's kick ins with 18 other players taking them and L Brown taking 38.8% of them.
All of these stats are courtesy of the following article- http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin
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My team at the moment heading into next season is as follows:
Def: Doch 535k, Williams 415k, rookie, rookie, rookie, etc.
Mid: Titch 720k, Fyfe 628k, Kelly 628k, Neale 618k, Yeo 598k, Dusty 560k, Sam Walsh 200k, rookie, rookie, etc.
Ruck: Grundy 724k + Gawn 709k (this will make or break seasons), 102k rookie
Forward: Danger 670k, Dunkley 530k , Greene 367k, Daniher 285k, rookie, rookie, etc.
If Danger isn't DPP he'll take Fyfe's spot in the middle and he'll become Bont, Parker or Menegola (depending on who has Dpp). Hopefully Dunkley also gets forward status.
Greene and Daniher will depend on how their bodies are going during preseason.
I have chosen a midfield with players who I think are all capable of averaging 115+ so I'm shooting for the stars to try to win.
All of this is of course temporary but it's fun to start thinking about.
Def: Doch 535k, Williams 415k, rookie, rookie, rookie, etc.
Mid: Titch 720k, Fyfe 628k, Kelly 628k, Neale 618k, Yeo 598k, Dusty 560k, Sam Walsh 200k, rookie, rookie, etc.
Ruck: Grundy 724k + Gawn 709k (this will make or break seasons), 102k rookie
Forward: Danger 670k, Dunkley 530k , Greene 367k, Daniher 285k, rookie, rookie, etc.
If Danger isn't DPP he'll take Fyfe's spot in the middle and he'll become Bont, Parker or Menegola (depending on who has Dpp). Hopefully Dunkley also gets forward status.
Greene and Daniher will depend on how their bodies are going during preseason.
I have chosen a midfield with players who I think are all capable of averaging 115+ so I'm shooting for the stars to try to win.
All of this is of course temporary but it's fun to start thinking about.
I must really be missing something, so I'm hoping those with a better grasp on it all will explain it to me.
People here, and in the media, keep saying that the Ruck rule change will force/drive Clubs to play 2 Ruckmen.
I really don't understand it, it's really not THAT big of a rule change. The Ruck being deemed to have prior opportunity, if he sharks the ball, rule was only in place for 5 years. Prior to that, we didn't see an awful lot of Rucks sharking the ball, anyway. To be honest, just to the naked eye, it happened around 2 to 3 times a game when the prior opportunity rule was in play, and around 8 or 9 times a game when it wasn't.
Why is it people think, that Rucks sharking the ball an extra 5 or 6 times a game, will lead to such a dramatic structure change in how teams set up?
I'm completely open minded, tell me why everyone is convinced this is such a big deal, and will force Clubs to make such a change?
People here, and in the media, keep saying that the Ruck rule change will force/drive Clubs to play 2 Ruckmen.
I really don't understand it, it's really not THAT big of a rule change. The Ruck being deemed to have prior opportunity, if he sharks the ball, rule was only in place for 5 years. Prior to that, we didn't see an awful lot of Rucks sharking the ball, anyway. To be honest, just to the naked eye, it happened around 2 to 3 times a game when the prior opportunity rule was in play, and around 8 or 9 times a game when it wasn't.
Why is it people think, that Rucks sharking the ball an extra 5 or 6 times a game, will lead to such a dramatic structure change in how teams set up?
I'm completely open minded, tell me why everyone is convinced this is such a big deal, and will force Clubs to make such a change?
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All I can think of at all is that Rucks will get more physical attention from opposing midfielders and opposing ruckman at stoppages. The fact that they are afforded prior opportunity means that they might be forced to shark the ball more often and that will make them more likely to cop knocks and be tackled to the ground (that's always worse for rucks because they have larger upper bodies that fall from higher up with more force). Rotating the rucks might prevent your no.1 ruck from copping too many knocks.
On the other hand you might see the likes of Martin and Grundy making the most of this rule and some of the less mobile ruckman ignoring it a tad more.
A bit far fetched but it's hard to think of any other reason.
Hi Rowsus
I think you are right it won’t suddenly mean two rucks. I think you might see a bit less of the 6 footer ruck (Grigg, Danger, Bont etc) who are really in there as an extra midfielder hoping there midfield will shark the tap.
I think the ability for the ruckman to just grab the ball will mean the likes of Gawn, Grundy and Goldy will just catch the ball and get the contested possession against Grigg quite regularly.
I don’t think it will change a team like the kangas and Goldy because Daw and Brown as relief Rucks won’t be easily outjumped.
The Part time ruck will live on and so might the complete non-ruckman (just a bit more risky for a coach to get right)
I think you are right it won’t suddenly mean two rucks. I think you might see a bit less of the 6 footer ruck (Grigg, Danger, Bont etc) who are really in there as an extra midfielder hoping there midfield will shark the tap.
I think the ability for the ruckman to just grab the ball will mean the likes of Gawn, Grundy and Goldy will just catch the ball and get the contested possession against Grigg quite regularly.
I don’t think it will change a team like the kangas and Goldy because Daw and Brown as relief Rucks won’t be easily outjumped.
The Part time ruck will live on and so might the complete non-ruckman (just a bit more risky for a coach to get right)
I don't think either Geelong or WBD uses these players in the ruck much these days right??
If anything I'm expecting the rise in importance of players such as Lobb/Cox/Preuss. From my perspective someone like Lobb could be much more important to Richmond's structure than Lynch, but that could just be my salty collingwood supporting side talking
If anything I'm expecting the rise in importance of players such as Lobb/Cox/Preuss. From my perspective someone like Lobb could be much more important to Richmond's structure than Lynch, but that could just be my salty collingwood supporting side talking
What's worth more SC point, a contested possession directly from grabbing the ball from a ruck contest or a H2A....?
Seriously though, all this does is increase the stocks of a Premier ruckman. The 'smarter' ruckman will only use this change of rule when circumstances are to their advantage for doing so. Opposing players can still target the ruckman when he goes down this path, but they still have to do so within the rules of the game, ie not give a free kick away.
To foster the notion that ruckman and/or coaches will devise a dedicated plan to take advantage of this rule change is a bit far fetch.
Seriously though, all this does is increase the stocks of a Premier ruckman. The 'smarter' ruckman will only use this change of rule when circumstances are to their advantage for doing so. Opposing players can still target the ruckman when he goes down this path, but they still have to do so within the rules of the game, ie not give a free kick away.
To foster the notion that ruckman and/or coaches will devise a dedicated plan to take advantage of this rule change is a bit far fetch.
I don't think either Geelong or WBD uses these players in the ruck much these days right??
If anything I'm expecting the rise in importance of players such as Lobb/Cox/Preuss. From my perspective someone like Lobb could be much more important to Richmond's structure than Lynch, but that could just be my salty collingwood supporting side talking
If anything I'm expecting the rise in importance of players such as Lobb/Cox/Preuss. From my perspective someone like Lobb could be much more important to Richmond's structure than Lynch, but that could just be my salty collingwood supporting side talking
Must admit I didn’t really see many Bulldogs games late in the season but Bont is just the type of rucking non-ruckman who this rule is designed to ‘get the extra midfielder out and a proper ruck in rule’
I like your thinking with Lobb at Richmond. Is it too late in the trade period to do reverse trades and start from scratch??
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The one thing about Rucks is that they tend to peak late in their careers, which is generally a bad thing for a SuperCoach player because it means that they are likely to revert back to what they have been for most of their careers (or closer to it). A midfielder seems less likely to have a season that is 10-15 points better than any other season at age 27 or older. This isn't an issue for Grundy who has already reached a super elite level at a young age and has been on an upward trajectory his whole career, but this is something of an issue for Gawn (not that he will no longer be elite but that his average will drop). The other issue is injury problems, something that has afflicted many Rucks but not Grundy. NicNat, Kreuzer, Gawn, Ryder, Sandy and Mummy have all suffered heavily from injuries in years where they've failed to back up their elite scoring. Consistent elite level scoring over more than one year is also important and this is something Gawn has over Grundy.
Other players who haven't backed it up recently include Martin (who peaked late in his career), Minson (who peaked late in his career), Maric (who peaked at 26 but also took a quantum leap in scoring from out of nowhere) Goldy (who peaked late in his career and had personal issues) and Jacobs (who is more mysterious but who did seem to suffer from the change to ruck scoring rules to HO/A).
I'll still be picking both.
Other players who haven't backed it up recently include Martin (who peaked late in his career), Minson (who peaked late in his career), Maric (who peaked at 26 but also took a quantum leap in scoring from out of nowhere) Goldy (who peaked late in his career and had personal issues) and Jacobs (who is more mysterious but who did seem to suffer from the change to ruck scoring rules to HO/A).
I'll still be picking both.
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I believe the contested possession itself is worth 2-3 points unscaled, then you have the additional points attached from handball/disposal.
A normal hitout to advantage without any form of scaling is also 2-3 points.
So, in a normal case, assuming the possession does not result in a clanger, the contested possession at least matches the HTA.
A normal hitout to advantage without any form of scaling is also 2-3 points.
So, in a normal case, assuming the possession does not result in a clanger, the contested possession at least matches the HTA.
I like this type of analysis.
Data itself is not convincing and somewhat useless if you can't understand/explan it. Agree with you in the sense that one cannot fully blame rucks' decreasing scoring tendencies on the fact that it was their 1st breakout season, but more due to their age profile and how well their bodies hold up.
This is especially why I'm extremely bullish on Grundy. In 2016, I predicted T Mitchell to have a breakout season, stating that he has the highest scoring potential and was the most likely to average 125+ out of all of Bontempelli/Cripps/Wines/Treloar/Crouch when his best previous season had an average of 104.
Now I propose the idea that Grundy will outscore Dangerfield's 136.4 average season in the next 3 years. Is it going to be 2019? I don't see why not.
Data itself is not convincing and somewhat useless if you can't understand/explan it. Agree with you in the sense that one cannot fully blame rucks' decreasing scoring tendencies on the fact that it was their 1st breakout season, but more due to their age profile and how well their bodies hold up.
This is especially why I'm extremely bullish on Grundy. In 2016, I predicted T Mitchell to have a breakout season, stating that he has the highest scoring potential and was the most likely to average 125+ out of all of Bontempelli/Cripps/Wines/Treloar/Crouch when his best previous season had an average of 104.
Now I propose the idea that Grundy will outscore Dangerfield's 136.4 average season in the next 3 years. Is it going to be 2019? I don't see why not.
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I'm planning on picking him as a small pod next year because I think he can average close to 120 for the year. He started slowly after battling injuries in the back half of 2017 and preseason and then averaged 118 from rounds 6-23. His disposal quality has improved since he averaged 34 disposals per game in 2016 and if he can combine his improved disposal quality with that amount of disposals next season he will definitely average a big number. The only worry is the new club which always produces unpredictable results. I'm probably going to avoid starting Macrae and Cripps because I see their averages dropping , although I could be wrong. If they stay at an elite level I'll be bringing them in instead. Cripps was one of my best picks last year but he was underpriced and had his first proper preseason.
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