Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion

[Connoisseur]

L Neale:
Avg without Fyfe since 2015: 112.59 from 29 (low of 51 and a high of 154 , 6/29 below 100, 10/29 120+)
Has only missed 1 game in the last 4 years.
Averaged 111.2 from his past 65 games (2016-2018)
In past 4 seasons has averaged 111.94 from 48 at Domain/Optus Stadium with 14 below 100 and 15 120+ and the past 3 seasons has averaged more than 110+ at home venue (2016=113.42 from 13, 2017=115.73 from 11, 2018=111.69 from 13)
Since 2015 he has averaged 113.77 from 37 wins (10/37 below 100 and 14/37 120+) and 106.28 from 50 losses (17/50 below 100 and 14/50 120+).

Pre Bye Avg since 2015: 111.8 from 50 (14/50 below 100, 20/50 120+)
Post Bye Avg since 2015: 106.3 from 37 (13/37 below 100, 8/37 120+)
2018 was the first time in his premium career (100+ avg) that he averaged less than 110+ pre bye and the 1st time that he averaged less pre bye than post bye.

Averaged 30.32 disposals in 2018.
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 31: 124.18 from 11 (low of 99 and a high of 159, 1/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 31: 99.55 from 11 (low of 74 and a high of 132, 5/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)

Also averaged 15.05 contested possessions.
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 16: 123.1 from 10 (low of 99 and a high of 151, 1/11 below 100, 6/11 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 16: 102.5 from 12 (low of 74 and a high of 159, 5/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)

Contested possession rate of 49.63% in 2018 which is the highest of his premium career and his time on ground was 80.18% in 2018.

 

[freowho]

Lol - I hope so
Just out of interest, what do you think of the Hogan trade?

I'm not sure to be honest. At his best I think it was a fair trade but there are some unanswered questions. We don't know if it was to do with his foot or his attitude or the draft picks requested or if Freo were just bluffing. I think key forwards are overvalued. How many premierships are won by a dominant KPF? Freo's ball movement under Ross has always been substandard. Even when we made the granny it was on the back of dominating stoppages and we got beaten by a coach who is the master of ball movement. We needed someone like Hogan and I'm glad we have him and I think the trades were fair but I have my fingers crossed he makes it through the year and we can get the ball down to that part of the ground!!

 

[freowho]

Handy!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1052886875600371712

Conca played as an inside mid as a junior so it would be interesting to see how he lines up for Freo especially with Neale leaving. He won't replace Neale but if he becomes a part of their mid rotations he could hold down D6.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I'm not sure to be honest. At his best I think it was a fair trade but there are some unanswered questions. We don't know if it was to do with his foot or his attitude or the draft picks requested or if Freo were just bluffing. I think key forwards are overvalued. How many premierships are won by a dominant KPF? Freo's ball movement under Ross has always been substandard. Even when we made the granny it was on the back of dominating stoppages and we got beaten by a coach who is the master of ball movement. We needed someone like Hogan and I'm glad we have him and I think the trades were fair but I have my fingers crossed he makes it through the year and we can get the ball down to that part of the ground!!

That’s a pretty fair summary. Plenty of pro’s and con’s with Hogan and only time will tell how he goes. If he recovers properly from his foot injury then I think he should be ok for you. Hopefully he can continue to improve his SC game.

 

[Manikato1]

I'm not sure to be honest. At his best I think it was a fair trade but there are some unanswered questions. We don't know if it was to do with his foot or his attitude or the draft picks requested or if Freo were just bluffing. I think key forwards are overvalued. How many premierships are won by a dominant KPF? Freo's ball movement under Ross has always been substandard. Even when we made the granny it was on the back of dominating stoppages and we got beaten by a coach who is the master of ball movement. We needed someone like Hogan and I'm glad we have him and I think the trades were fair but I have my fingers crossed he makes it through the year and we can get the ball down to that part of the ground!!

I agree on the unanswered questions. As you would expect there was a lot of talk on Perth radio (ABC/6PR) about the Hogan trade leading up to final deal and on more than one occasion the question was raised "So for a young guy averaging 2 goals a game already, why do Melbourne want to get rid of him?" The standard answer was they want a defender more than a forward but the way the answers were put I got the distinct impression there was more to it than that. One person gave the "defender" answer and then added so let's just leave it at that. It was a bit weird. Bell has said the due diligence issue that put it on hold was his foot injury but players get traded with known injuries all the time, not to mention they hate the coach or they are not getting paid enough. Those kind of reasons are always part of the trade scenario and public knowledge. Maybe I am reading way too much into it. But at the time something did not fit right. I hope it works out for him. Think Bell did well getting extra trade picks as well as the players they needed.

 

[Connoisseur]

R Sloane:
Avg of 96.58 in 2018 from 12 games.
Lowest avg since 2011 and the 1st time in the past 6 seasons he has averaged below 105 (2012=106.1, 2013=107, 2014=114.8, 2015=105.5, 2016=108.6 and 2017=110.2)

2018 was the 1st time Sloane averaged below 115 at the Adelaide Oval (2018 AO Avg- 100.43 from 7)
Avg at Adelaide Oval between 2014-2017: 119 from 43 (10/43 below 100, 23/43 120+)
2014: 115.92 from 12
2015: 119.25 from 8
2016: 119.91 from 11
2017: 121.08 from 12

Adelaide Oval Wins between 2014-2017: 124.16 from 31(7/31 below 100, 19/31 120+)
2014: 123.5 from 6
2015: 128 from 6
2016: 117.7 from 10
2017: 129.22 from 10
Has never averaged below 115 a season in AO Wins (2018 AO Wins Avg- 115.6 from 5)

Averaged 116.27 from 79 wins (25/79 below 100, 36/79 120+) and 97.02 from 43 losses (22/43 below 100, 6/43 120+) between 2012-2017.

Averaged 21.92 disposals and 13 contested possessions in 2018.
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 111.86 from 7 (low of 89 and a high of 141, 2/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 13: 112 from 6 (low of 89 and a high of 141, 2/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

Contested possession rate of 58% in 2018 which was a career high.

 

[Darkie]

Good pick-up on Sloane, he’s one of probably a dozen underpriced premium mids. One key reservation for me is that his poorer scoring seemed to coincide with Gibbs’ arrival.

 

[Connoisseur]

Good pick-up on Sloane, he’s one of probably a dozen underpriced premium mids. One key reservation for me is that his poorer scoring seemed to coincide with Gibbs’ arrival.

One of the poor scores occurred in the match he was injured and historically the majority of his scores are either below 90 or above 120. Will be very intriguing to see how he performs after recovering from the injury and playing with Gibbs when close to fully fit, signing the contract extension and if the Crows receive a favorable fixture or a return to from in 2019 as evident by the stats I provided regrading his record in wins and matches at AO it will be beneficial for him.

 

[Manikato1]

Like Sloane for next year. Excellent info.

 

[Deeman1]

Great work Con, much appreciated.

Sloane has been one of my favourite SC players for many years, both for traditional SC and leagues.

The main beauty I found with Sloane, was that although he was generally he was able to ave 105-112, which placed him generally just outside the top 10-15 on average, but due to him very really missing game, playing 21-22 games most years prior to this year meant he was regularly in the top 8-12 on aggregate.

Seems to have fallen away since Danger left getting more attention and injuries, but still a great player to watch ?

 

[Prochard]

Would find it very very difficult to consider Sloane. Just the fact that he's their #1 mid is enough for me to completely overlook this selection.

 

[pizza safety]

Would find it very very difficult to consider Sloane. Just the fact that he's their #1 mid is enough for me to completely overlook this selection.

I feel like Sloane still struggles with the tag, he was tagged in 5/12 games this year and scored 78, 89, 84, 66 and 111 in those games. That's according to fan footy though and although they are often correct they do sometimes also exaggerate or underrepresent the role of taggers.

 

[IDIG]

No for Sloane for me as well unless he gets really cheap throughout the year and has a good tag-free run. I think there's a few underpriced options with less risk attached.

 

[pizza safety]

No for Sloane for me as well unless he gets really cheap throughout the year and has a good tag-free run. I think there's a few underpriced options with less risk attached.

I agree, I think for a little bit more you can get Dusty, Crouch and Merrett, all of whom will probably outscore Sloane.

Crouch started playing well at the end of the year but he's just a bad kick of the footy and that seems to keep his scores down. I remember reading that he had improved his kicking by the 2nd half of 2017 and that would probably explain why he started scoring so well during that period, but he also got criticised in the prospectus of this year for being a bad kick overall for 2017. This year he seemed to revert back to bad kicking. With all his high disposal numbers, if he can fix that part of his game up he has a pretty high ceiling, we've seen players like Neale and Tom Mitchell significantly improve their disposal efficiency, but again I feel they were better kicks and disposers of the footy to start with. I prefer seeing a low disposal count and a high score than vice versa because I think disposal numbers are more likely to improve than are efficiency numbers. Could average 110+ with Sloane playing more games (that seems to free him up) and with improved efficiency.

With Merrett you'd be thinking he will get tagged less with Shiel in the side but I think it's still a risk given how he performed when tagged heavily in games (although he did get better at coping scoring 112 vs Hutchings, 123 vs Banfield and 114 vs Hewett). He also seemed to change his game last year to be more in and under and hand-balling, which I didn't feel completely suited him and as a consequence he seemed to lose some of his 130+ scores. I still feel he has a lot of potential but I don't know if he has the ceiling as a scorer based on his overall tendency to be more outside than inside and his propensity to be tagged. Could score 110+ and I wouldn't be surprised but I feel like he'll averaged slightly under that amount.

Dusty is the one I like the most out of these three, and although slightly more expensive, he definitely has the ceiling as a scorer. He averaged 119 one season ago but also averaged 105 and 108 in the two seasons prior. He had issues with injuries for much of the year and that held him back and he was also quite negated every time he was tagged. Still I feel his ending to the year was stellar (not including the prelim where he was tagged by Greenwood) and he does have the ceiling to go 115+ that I feel the others lack. Funnily when he was younger he represented the opposite to Crouch, averaging big numbers without incredible disposal numbers, and like Dangerfield and Pendles, that eventually translated to him becoming a super premium when those numbers went up. Currently Yeo, Bont and Heeney all have that same potential.

 

[PC]

Personally, I think Dusty's 2017 was a spike year and we won't see the 'aligning of planets' again to allow him to be an uber mid prem.

 

[pizza safety]

Personally, I think Dusty's 2017 was a spike year and we won't see the 'aligning of planets' again to allow him to be an uber mid prem.

Definitely possible but who do you think offers better value relative to their ceiling? I always thought he had the potential to play a season like he did and I wasn't surprised when it happened, I get that it stands out as an obscurity but he is also a special talent. At his price it's highly unlikely he performs below it and a 110 average could be easily achieved given his averages read 105, 108 and 119 in the three preceding seasons.

 

[Darkie]

Definitely possible but who do you think offers better value relative to their ceiling? I always thought he had the potential to play a season like he did and I wasn't surprised when it happened, I get that it stands out as an obscurity but he is also a special talent. At his price it's highly unlikely he performs below it and a 110 average would be easily achieved given his averages read 105, 108 and 119 in the three preceding seasons.

I think there's a decent argument that Danger and Fyfe are more under-priced than Dusty, and I think they're clearly more likely to score at mid premium level. I have all three pencilled in though, at M1-3 in that order.

 

[IDIG]

2016: 18 games @ 61sc
2017: 22 games @ 66
2018: 22 games @ 79

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1055012338984800259

 

[Connoisseur]

2016: 18 games @ 61sc
2017: 22 games @ 66
2018: 22 games @ 79

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1055012338984800259

J Gresham averaged 17.59 disposals in 2018.
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 18: 95.22 from 9 (low of 60 and a high of 131, 5/9 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 18: 68 from 13 (low of 36 and a high of 121, 12/13 below 100)

Averaged 10 kicks a game in 2018 which was 56.85% of his disposals.
SC avg when kicks equal/exceed 10: 90.67 from 12

39.23% Contested Possession Rate in 2018 or 6.95 contested possession average.
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 7: 89.53 from 15 (low of 53 and a high of 113, 10/15 below 100)

Averaged 94.91 when he kicked multiple goals.

TOG (Time on ground ) in 2017: 79.09%
TOG (Time on ground) in 2018: 84.91%

Averaged 85.78 post bye.

 

[pizza safety]

I think there's a decent argument that Danger and Fyfe are more under-priced than Dusty, and I think they're clearly more likely to score at mid premium level. I have all three pencilled in though, at M1-3 though in that order.

I agree that those two are both underpriced and I'll be starting Danger as well as Fyfe if Danger is a forward otherwise I'll only start Danger. Fyfe is underpriced for sure but he's almost guaranteed to miss games through injury/suspension. My current midfield is Titch, Fyfe, J Kelly, Neale, Yeo and Dusty (very tentatively), Fyfe could also take Neale's spot if Danger isn't a forward.

I also think Macrae and Cripps are going to be overpriced heading into next year and I expect both to drop off from their average (as I do with Titch but less so and I trust him more). Yeo is a guy who had a peak year but his 24 disposals a game average shows me has the capacity to become a super premium if he gets those numbers up.