Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion

[Connoisseur]

A trap of Liba returns from injury. Otherwise, could be a gem playing midfield!

Depends what his role is now they’ve picked up some young mids. Might have his rotations reduced now they’ve got pretty good depth.

Is Dunkley a trap or underpriced?

J Dunkley:
2018 Wins Avg: 106.38 from 8 (3/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
2018 Losses Avg: 86.91 from 11 (7/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
2018 Pre Bye Avg: 77.11 from 9 (7/9 below 100)
2018 Post Bye Avg: 111.3 from 10 (3/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)

2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 21.89
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 114.9 from 10 (low of 86 and a high of 157, 2/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 22: 73.11 from 9 (low of 40 and a high of 105, 8/9 below 100)

Contested Possessions: 8.11
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 120.25 from 8 (low of 94 and a high of 157, 1/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 9: 76.82 from 11 (9/11 below 100)

Tackles: 5.95
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 6: 104.67 from 12 (low of 60 and a high of 157, 5/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 6: 78.71 from 7 (low of 40 and a high of 116, 5/7 below 100)

Time on Ground: 81.47%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 82%: 104 from 10 (low of 42 and a high of 157, 4/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 82%: 85.22 from 9 (low of 40 and a high of 116, 6/9 below 100)

Disposal Efficiency: 70.7%
Contested Possession Rate: 37.11%

 

[pizza safety]

Depends what his role is now they’ve picked up some young mids. Might have his rotations reduced now they’ve got pretty good depth.

A trap of Liba returns from injury. Otherwise, could be a gem playing midfield!

J Dunkley:
2018 Wins Avg: 106.38 from 8 (3/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
2018 Losses Avg: 86.91 from 11 (7/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
2018 Pre Bye Avg: 77.11 from 9 (7/9 below 100)
2018 Post Bye Avg: 111.3 from 10 (3/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)

2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 21.89
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 114.9 from 10 (low of 86 and a high of 157, 2/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 22: 73.11 from 9 (low of 40 and a high of 105, 8/9 below 100)

Contested Possessions: 8.11
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 120.25 from 8 (low of 94 and a high of 157, 1/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 9: 76.82 from 11 (9/11 below 100)

Tackles: 5.95
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 6: 104.67 from 12 (low of 60 and a high of 157, 5/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 6: 78.71 from 7 (low of 40 and a high of 116, 5/7 below 100)

Time on Ground: 81.47%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 82%: 104 from 10 (low of 42 and a high of 157, 4/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 82%: 85.22 from 9 (low of 40 and a high of 116, 6/9 below 100)

Disposal Efficiency: 70.7%
Contested Possession Rate: 37.11%

I agree Libba coming back would take some time away from him but it will probably take more mid time away from Bont. Those young players will also take some time off him, but they also traded Dahlhaus who spent some time there. It's definitely a concern because of their coach and system and the fact that players will be moved all over the place from game-to-game and during games. McLean started as a good pick but faded away as Dunkley started to eat up his mid time. He did say in a post season interview that they challenged him to become a real on-baller rather than a forward when he was dropped, if they told him that and it's how they see him as a player then it's likely they will continue to utilise him in that role.

Thanks for the info Connoisseur. Dunkley averaged 115 in his last 9, but he really generated that type of average in his last 6 games where he averaged 127 and in his last 5 where he averaged 131 (he averaged 93 in the first 3 of the 9). He seemed to completely change as a player after being dropped and coming back as an inside mid but the sample is small. There are questions about role and there are questions about whether we have enough evidence of his scoring ability, somewhere between 6-9 games is not a lot of evidence. If he plays like he did at the end of the year he will almost definitely stay in the guts and will not be moved but if his form drops off then he might be moved forward or be rotated more often.

Heeney will be about 10k more expensive and while he hasn't taken that next step he also has a high ceiling as a player and is much more reliable. Interesting.

 

[nath_99]

I'm not sure if this Question has been asked before, but with the arrival of Preuss to Melb. How do we see this affecting Big Maxy?

For eg. If both are selected, does Gawn go down FWD? If so, would this affect his scoring enough to not start him or am I being silly? Haha

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I'm not sure if this Question has been asked before, but with the arrival of Preuss to Melb. How do we see this affecting Big Maxy?

For eg. If both are selected, does Gawn go down FWD? If so, would this affect his scoring enough to not start him or am I being silly? Haha

Personally, I don’t think I will be able to start Max at $700k+ if there is any chance he will be sharing the ruck with Preuss. Apparently Preuss is looking good in early training (very early stages I know) and there seems to be a feeling that Melb intend to play him in some capacity rather than just keep him at Casey as backup. Perhaps they both alternate between Ruck and Fwd in some games and perhaps Max rucks alone in others (depending on matchups) with the intention of keeping Max fit and firing all the way through to the end of the season (and hopefully well into September). I like this plan for the Dees, but I don’t like it for Max in SC.

 

[nath_99]

Personally, I don’t think I will be able to start Max at $700k+ if there is any chance he will be sharing the ruck with Preuss. Apparently Preuss is looking good in early training (very early stages I know) and there seems to be a feeling that Melb intend to play him in some capacity rather than just keep him at Casey as backup. Perhaps they both alternate between Ruck and Fwd in some games and perhaps Max rucks alone in others (depending on matchups) with the intention of keeping Max fit and firing all the way through to the end of the season (and hopefully well into September). I like this plan for the Dees, but I don’t like it for Max in SC.

Thanks mate.. certainly a bit of a ?? over starting him.. the 700k+ price tag is not too appealing haha

 

[Bontempele]

I'm not sure if this Question has been asked before, but with the arrival of Preuss to Melb. How do we see this affecting Big Maxy?

For eg. If both are selected, does Gawn go down FWD? If so, would this affect his scoring enough to not start him or am I being silly? Haha

If Preuss is playing, Gawn is a big no. However, I can't see Preuss playing a game if Gawn is fit. Melbourne barely even played Pedersen as a forward/ruck along with Gawn, so I doubt they'd play another specialist ruckman in Preuss.

 

[pizza safety]

If Preuss is playing, Gawn is a big no. However, I can't see Preuss playing a game if Gawn is fit. Melbourne barely even played Pedersen as a forward/ruck along with Gawn, so I doubt they'd play another specialist ruckman in Preuss.

I don't know about that, I think they're looking to play him because Gawn is always injured and they want to reduce his work load. By seasons end last year he was barely training due to injury and his performance declined. They probably won't play them both every game and perhaps not against teams with elite ruckmen, but it sounds like they will both play for the most part.

 

[Manikato1]

I don't know about that, I think they're looking to play him because Gawn is always injured and they want to reduce his work load. By seasons end last year he was barely training due to injury and his performance declined. They probably won't play them both every game and perhaps not against teams with elite ruckmen, but it sounds like they will both play for the most part.

Do you mean 2017 or this season just finished? He may well have played inj this year but still played 22 games and ave 127 last 5. Still I agree with you that they must be going to play Preuss. They would not have got him so he can sit on the sidelines and Preuss moved because he could not get games past Goldy. So unless there is some other unknown reason he moved I could not imagine he would up stumps so he could sit on the bench behind Max when he was already doing that at the Roos. On the other side of the argument Bontempele also makes a valid point about Pederson. The Gawnster is just too many $ for me and those $ affect options on to many other parts of the ground

This problem will be amplified if Danger is M/F and people are forced to spend the money on him in the Fwd line. If Mummy looks as though he is sound at the start of the season I will seriously be looking at using him.

 

[Bomber18]

Do you mean 2017 or this season just finished? He may well have played inj this year but still played 22 games and ave 127 last 5. Still I agree with you that they must be going to play Preuss. They would not have got him so he can sit on the sidelines and Preuss moved because he could not get games past Goldy. So unless there is some other unknown reason he moved I could not imagine he would up stumps so he could sit on the bench behind Max when he was already doing that at the Roos. On the other side of the argument Bontempele also makes a valid point about Pederson. The Gawnster is just too many $ for me and those $ affect options on to many other parts of the ground

This problem will be amplified if Danger is M/F and people are forced to spend the money on him in the Fwd line. If Mummy looks as though he is sound at the start of the season I will seriously be looking at using him.

Fwiw Mummy is suspended for the first two games.

 

[pizza safety]

Do you mean 2017 or this season just finished? He may well have played inj this year but still played 22 games and ave 127 last 5. Still I agree with you that they must be going to play Preuss. They would not have got him so he can sit on the sidelines and Preuss moved because he could not get games past Goldy. So unless there is some other unknown reason he moved I could not imagine he would up stumps so he could sit on the bench behind Max when he was already doing that at the Roos. On the other side of the argument Bontempele also makes a valid point about Pederson. The Gawnster is just too many $ for me and those $ affect options on to many other parts of the ground

This problem will be amplified if Danger is M/F and people are forced to spend the money on him in the Fwd line. If Mummy looks as though he is sound at the start of the season I will seriously be looking at using him.

Yep you're right I meant this year, I keep thinking this season gone by and saying last year. He finished up very well in the last two games of the regular season but had his worst game of the year from a performance perspective against Sydney and ended up with 82 points when he was most compromised and he averaged 115 in his last 9 including finals. Not bad at all but he was ostensibly playing with an injury. The way Preuss was saying that he moved to Melbourne because he didn't want to keep playing in the VFL tells me that they told him there's first team footy for him to play at the dees in tandem with Gawn if he's good enough to do it. I don't want to pay 700k+ for a guy who will be sharing the ruck without knowing that he can maintain an elite average whilst sharing and with his injury history. I think with the number of surgeries he's had he's always going to be somewhat compromised.

Danger is a confirmed mid/forward now so I agree with you we probably can't go berserk in the ruck line but I will probably start Grundy with Nank, I don't like the look of any of the cheaper options and mummy won't be playing til Round 3. I Was considering Goldy but I do question his upside a little bit comparative to his price. If Nank lifts his hitout stats and gets a bit fitter he's got a lot of potential, I also think the new ruck rules benefit him, Martin and Grundy the most.

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Bomber. Yes I know but if the Hoff is named as R/F then that hiccup is resolved. If Mummy can go high 90's for 7-8 games in a row he will be up within a one up one down trade for a premium ruck. Season off might be good for his body but I don't think I would not consider keeping him long term.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Do you mean 2017 or this season just finished? He may well have played inj this year but still played 22 games and ave 127 last 5. Still I agree with you that they must be going to play Preuss. They would not have got him so he can sit on the sidelines and Preuss moved because he could not get games past Goldy. So unless there is some other unknown reason he moved I could not imagine he would up stumps so he could sit on the bench behind Max when he was already doing that at the Roos. On the other side of the argument Bontempele also makes a valid point about Pederson. The Gawnster is just too many $ for me and those $ affect options on to many other parts of the ground

This problem will be amplified if Danger is M/F and people are forced to spend the money on him in the Fwd line. If Mummy looks as though he is sound at the start of the season I will seriously be looking at using him.

Gawns last 5 games of the regular season were good but he dropped off in the finals and started to look really tired. The final game against 2 Eagle rucks might have shown Melbourne a window into the future and sparked their desire to get another ruck to ease the load on Max. Preuss is also a big tough unit and I can see him fitting in really well with the current Melbourne game plan and team style of play.

 

[pizza safety]

Gawns last 5 games of the regular season were good but he dropped off in the finals and started to look really tired. The final game against 2 Eagle rucks might have shown Melbourne a window into the future and sparked their desire to get another ruck to ease the load on Max. Preuss is also a big tough unit and I can see him fitting in really well with the current Melbourne game plan and team style of play.

Their boy Oliver might be the one most worth starting even with the shoulder surgery.

 

[Bermi]

The Gawn-Preuss discussion reminds me of the Grundy-Cox discussion at the start of the 2018 season. Cox was suppose to take SC pts away from Grundy, so I didn't start with Grundy (never got the chance later to bring Grundy into my team ).
I assumed Cox and Grundy were suppose to 'share' the ruck, but it turned out that Cox was only used when Grundy needed a rest. Even with Cox playing, Grundy still scored very well.

Cox, besides relieving Grundy, had a 'specific' role to play up forward, even if it was mainly to bring the ball to ground, so the smaller Pies could capitalise on that. Is there a role for Preuss to play up forward?
I assume Melbourne will obviously try Preuss, but if he is not performing well, will they persevere with him? The Pies did with Cox.

I'm basically thinking that Preuss could help Gawn to be a better SC pts scorer, because Gawn will be able to have more rests during a game and hence have a bigger impact when contesting.

 

[KLo30]

TOP 2019 DPP PICKS

DEFENDER-MIDFIELDER

Andrew McGrath (Essendon)

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast)

Corey Ellis (Gold Coast)

DEFENDER-FORWARD

Darcy Moore (Collingwood)

Jack Silvagni (Carlton)

Ben Silvagni (Carlton)

RUCK-FORWARD

Justin Westhoff (Port Adelaide)

Rory Lobb (Fremantle)

Jordan Roughead (Collingwood)

Jonathon Patton (GWS Giants)

Jon Ceglar (Hawthorn)


MIDFIELDER-FORWARD

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

Tim Kelly (Geelong)

Isaac Heeney (Sydney)

Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide)

Devon Smith (Essendon)

Toby McLean (W.Bulldogs)

Sam Menegola (Geelong)

Michael Walters (Fremantle)

Will Setterfield (Carlton)

Jack Martin (Gold Coast)

Chad Wingard (Hawthorn)

Jack Newnes (St Kilda)

Caleb Daniel (W.Bulldogs)

KEY PLAYER WHO HAVE LOST DPP

Paul Seedsman (Adelaide): Def-Mid to Mid only

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane): Mid-Fwd to Mid only

Jordan De Goey (Collingwood): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only

Aaron Francis (Essendon): Def-Fwd to Fwd only

Pearce Hanley (Gold Coast): Def-Mid to Def only

Tim Taranto (GWS Giants): Mid-Fwd to Mid only

James Sicily (Hawthorn): Def-Fwd to Def only

Angus Brayshaw (Melbourne): Def-Mid to Mid only

Luke McDonald (Nth Melb): Def-Mid to Def only

Travis Boak (Port Adel): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only

Jack Higgins (Richmond): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only

Josh Caddy (Richmond): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only

Kane Lambert (Richmond) Mid-Fwd to Fwd only

 

[jaca]

Spending 1.4m on Rucks looks a hard ask if your Fwd line can be so "midfield heavy".

 

[KLo30]

Spending 1.4m on Rucks looks a hard ask if your Fwd line can be so "midfield heavy".

2 and 6 Midfield

 

[nath_99]

Lock in Smith, Danger, Gray and Heeney.... throw away the key...

McGrath is mighty tempting at DEF/MID... Bit annoyed to see Francis as a FWD???? @Bomber18 did you see this one coming mate?

 

[Herbie66]

Spending 1.4m on Rucks looks a hard ask if your Fwd line can be so "midfield heavy".

Greene and Daniher look questionable to start.

The value is in defence , Docherty , Williams + guys like Roberton , B Smith , Hanley (?) , Birchall (?) might mean foregoing Laird , Lloyd , Whitfield , Blakely etc.

Or look at the $ 300 k - $ 400 k mids to start in Hall , B Crouch , Hanneberry , Libba , Miles.

Fine balancing act and all dependent on Rookies for Round 1

 

[BigRuss]

Going to be hard to find value this year I think. Depending on which rookies come up from this so called super draft, there may be some merit in going in 1 premium shorter than previous years and taking a few more of the “banker” type players rather than speculative picks.

Going to be an interesting season. Will go really well for some and bloody horribly for others I’d wager.