Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion

[freowho]

Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Simpson, Whitfield, Docherty.
Docherty with a discount is probably a lock. Lloyd at his price and talk of him moving up the ground is a possible upgrade and Simpson at his age is an upgrade. Whitfield looks like a solid pick. Is anyone starting Laird or Sicily? Maybe I have the purple glasses on but I'd like to give Blakely a starting spot. Docherty, Whitfield, Blakely and 5 rookies if they show up. Probably Sicily and 4 rookies.
T McDonald, Ryan, Andrews, Witherden, Milera, Mills, Williams and all the other speculative picks look like missing out on a starting spot in my team.

 

[freowho]

Going to be hard to find value this year I think. Depending on which rookies come up from this so called super draft, there may be some merit in going in 1 premium shorter than previous years and taking a few more of the “banker” type players rather than speculative picks.

Going to be an interesting season. Will go really well for some and bloody horribly for others I’d wager.

I just posted my backline thoughts along similar lines. I love a speculative pick much to my disadvantage but at the moment my team is looking very guns and rookies. Lots of mature age rookies in bottom teams also looks appealing.

 

[Bontempele]

Going to be hard to find value this year I think. Depending on which rookies come up from this so called super draft, there may be some merit in going in 1 premium shorter than previous years and taking a few more of the “banker” type players rather than speculative picks.

Going to be an interesting season. Will go really well for some and bloody horribly for others I’d wager.

What makes it really difficult is that Gawn and Grundy are so easily the best rucks, so you really have to pick them or risk being stuck with someone a lot worse for all 23 rounds. eg. If we were to pick someone like Goldy, it would be hard to trade, as we usually don't have the luxury of trading out premiums when other problems arise.

Basically with Gawn being 200k more than he was last year, we might have to pick one more rookie than usual, instead of a mid-pricer, or a mid-pricer instead of a premium.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Here's an interesting thought - has there ever been a player starting at $700k+ where starting them has been the right decision? Off the top of my head, I don't think it has ever ended well (but I'm happy to be corrected)

 

[pizza safety]

What makes it really difficult is that Gawn and Grundy are so easily the best rucks, so you really have to pick them or risk being stuck with someone a lot worse for all 23 rounds. eg. If we were to pick someone like Goldy, it would be hard to trade, as we usually don't have the luxury of trading out premiums when other problems arise.

Basically with Gawn being 200k more than he was last year, we might have to pick one more rookie than usual, instead of a mid-pricer, or a mid-pricer instead of a premium.

They are the best rucks if they keep it up, but Gawn just had his best year by 9 points at age 27 and I don't reckon he will keep it up, especially if he is sharing ruck duties on certain weeks. Gawn is also a bit of an injury risk and always will be. I was originally agreeing with you on this and wanted to start both until I saw that he was likely to be sharing the workload and started to think of the other reasons why he wouldn't be able to back it up. My guess is that he averages about 115-120 but that he might get injured, I think other players like Nank (who I like the most), Martin and Goldy have the potential to average about 110 and they are significantly cheaper. I also feel like I can probably upgrade to him as a luxury trade towards the end of the year if I need to.

 

[pizza safety]

Here's an interesting thought - has there ever been a player starting at $700k+ where starting them has been the right decision? Off the top of my head, I don't think it has ever ended well (but I'm happy to be corrected)

Arguably Dangerfield in 2017, he did drop some cash but made it back, and it would have been very hard to trade him in whilst he dropped because it happened pretty early in the season. Was Ablett over 700k the year he followed up a 128 average with a 136?

 

[BigRuss]

What makes it really difficult is that Gawn and Grundy are so easily the best rucks, so you really have to pick them or risk being stuck with someone a lot worse for all 23 rounds. eg. If we were to pick someone like Goldy, it would be hard to trade, as we usually don't have the luxury of trading out premiums when other problems arise.

Basically with Gawn being 200k more than he was last year, we might have to pick one more rookie than usual, instead of a mid-pricer, or a mid-pricer instead of a premium.

We had a few players at a discount this year too in Cogs, Smith and Sicily off the top of my head. There were a few sides that had 16 non rookies on field without compromising quality by the first price change as a result. Think we’ll be lucky to get to 14 this year.

If 2017 taught me anything it’s that rucks are the best place to look for value and there is limited scope for that this season. Goldy, Stef and Ryder probably too old to deliver the required output and Nank not quite experienced enough. Almost pigeon holed into the Grundy/Gawn combo at this point.

Plenty of water to go under the bridge still but at this stage I think I start the two big boys and build the side around them.

 

[Drew]

Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Simpson, Whitfield, Docherty.
Docherty with a discount is probably a lock. Lloyd at his price and talk of him moving up the ground is a possible upgrade and Simpson at his age is an upgrade. Whitfield looks like a solid pick. Is anyone starting Laird or Sicily? Maybe I have the purple glasses on but I'd like to give Blakely a starting spot. Docherty, Whitfield, Blakely and 5 rookies if they show up. Probably Sicily and 4 rookies.
T McDonald, Ryan, Andrews, Witherden, Milera, Mills, Williams and all the other speculative picks look like missing out on a starting spot in my team.

Laird would be my first picked in defence. 93+ in the last four seasons, will be arguably over priced next year coming off 108 average but if you don’t start him you'll be wanting to get him in sooner or than later, can’t see him not being a top six defender again and if you don’t have him you’ll be bleeding points.

 

[Tex]

I personally think you can have strong Def and Fwds with a 3/3/5 midfield next year.
That will be my aim.

 

[Herbie66]

I personally think you can have strong Def and Fwds with a 3/3/5 midfield next year.
That will be my aim.

Just curious as to what price range or players you are actually looking at in that middle 3 ?

A lot will depend on how cheap Docherty & Williams are in defence and whether people take a punt on Daniher/Greene up forward and if they find that cheaper alternative R2.

Some interesting months coming up.

 

[aps1]

Here's an interesting thought - has there ever been a player starting at $700k+ where starting them has been the right decision? Off the top of my head, I don't think it has ever ended well (but I'm happy to be corrected)

Depends on what criteria you use to define the “right decision”.

Fairly certain a few winners started Ablett in his prime.

 

[freowho]

Just curious as to what price range or players you are actually looking at in that middle 3 ?

A lot will depend on how cheap Docherty & Williams are in defence and whether people take a punt on Daniher/Greene up forward and if they find that cheaper alternative R2.

Some interesting months coming up.

I'm not convinced with Williams. He was an ok D6 for one year but no proof that he is anything more than that and I don't know how he gets more opportunity at GWS with Taranto and Hopper looking for more points as well.

 

[Manikato1]

I personally think you can have strong Def and Fwds with a 3/3/5 midfield next year.
That will be m

Just curious as to what price range or players you are actually looking at in that middle 3 ?

A lot will depend on how cheap Docherty & Williams are in defence and whether people take a punt on Daniher/Greene up forward and if they find that cheaper alternative R2.

Some interesting months coming up.

I am currently looking at a set up like

Def 5 Keepers 3 Rookies
Mid 3 Keepers 1 Midpricer 7 Rookies
Ruck 1 keeper 1 Midpricer 1 Rookies (No Gawn/Grundy)
Fwd 5 Keepers 3 Rookies

 

[Tex]

That looks about right mate.
Mine will depend a few mid pricers starting price but could drop down to rookies if there are good options playing Round 1.

 

[Bermi]

2019 SuperCoach AFL – Rookie Bible

http://supercoachtalk.com/2019-rookie-bible/

 

[Johno9911]

Quick question for the forum, does anyone have any idea when we can expect Supercoach to open for 2019?

 

[freowho]

2019 SuperCoach AFL – Rookie Bible

http://supercoachtalk.com/2019-rookie-bible/

No mention of Corbett or Burgess at the Gold Coast.

 

[jaca]

Copied from Dr SC's facebook:

MORE POSITIONS REVEALED

DEFENDERS
Lachie Whitfield (GWS): Mid to Def

Connor Blakely (Frem): Mid to Def

Mark Blicavs (Geel): Mid to Def

Stephen Hill (Frem): Mid to Def

Hunter Clark (StK) Mid to Def

Zak Jones (Syd): Mid to Def

Hayden Crozier (WB): Fwd to Def

Nic Newman (Carl): Mid to Def

Harrison Wigg (GC): Mid to Def

Jordan Lewis (Melb): Mid to Def

MIDFIELDERS
Elliot Yeo (WCE): Def to Mid

Chris Mayne (Coll): Fwd to Mid

Reece Conca (Frem): Def to Mid

Brett Deledio (GWS): Fwd to Mid

Bayley Fritsch (Melb): Fwd to Mid

Sam Lloyd (WB): Fwd to Mid

Harley Bennell (Frem): Fwd to Mid

FORWARDS
Jack Ziebell (NM): Mid to Fwd

Nick Holman (GC): Mid to Fwd

Alex Sexton (GC) Def to Fwd

Will Hoskin-Elliott (GWS): Mid to Fwd

Adam Cerra (Frem): Mid to Fwd

TOP 20 DRAFTEES
Sam Walsh (Carl) Mid

Jack Lukosius (GC) Fwd

Izak Rankine (GC) Fwd

Max King (StK) Fwd

Connor Rozee (PtA) Def-Fwd

Ben King (GC) Fwd

Bailey Smith (WB) Mid

Tarryn Thomas (NM) Mid

Chayce Jones (Adel) Mid

Nick Blakey (Syd) Fwd

Jye Caldwell (GWS) Mid

Zak Butters (PtA) Mid

Isaac Quaynor (Coll) Def

Jackson Hately (GWS) Mid

Jordan Clark (Geel) Def

Ned McHenry (Adel) Mid-Fwd

Sam Sturt (Frem) Fwd

Xavier Duursma (PtA) Def-Mid

Liam Stocker (Carl) Mid

Riley Collier-Dawkins (Rich) Mid

OTHER NOTABLE CASH COWS
Shane McAdam (Adel) Fwd

Ely Smith (BL) Mid

Irving Mosquito (Ess) Mid-Fwd

Luke Valente (Frem) Mid

Brett Bewley (Frem) Mid

Nathan Kreuger (Geel) Fwd

Darcy Fort (Geel) Ruck

Sam Collins (GC) Def

Josh Corbett (GC) Fwd

Jacob Koschitzke (Haw) Def-Fwd

Marty Hore (Melb) Def

Nick Hind (StK) Mid

Rhylee West (WB) Mid

 

[freowho]

Danger and Heeney are the only two I would be confident of being forward keepers but their could be a dozen others jockeying for the other 4 spots. Menegola, D Smith, Dunkley, Wingard, T Kelly, T Lynch, Hawkins, Franklin, Gunston, De Goey will all be close or could fill a role if they drop in price. I'm not as bullish on Robbie Gray as others. He averaged 88 after the bye and doesn't have a guaranteed spot in the midfield rotations.
There are also a heap of mature age rookies in the forward line and Daniher, Fasolo and Setterfield if they are cheap. At this point I'm unlikely to load up on too many forward premiums and maybe start Danger in the midfield so as not to paint myself into a corner. Still can't see a spot for any speculative picks but if I was going to take one it would probably be Tom Lynch because of his ceiling and the rnd 14 bye.
Danger (F,M) in the mids, D Smith(F,M), Heeney(F,M), T Lynch and 5 rookies would give some nice early flexibility.

 

[blue dreamer]

Any chance Zac Clarke is R/F