Position Rucks Discussion

[Snowman]

I think if your looking for a alternative to the Grundy/Gawn combination then Goldy presents as the SAFEST choice. The fact he has the rnd 14 bye doesn’t hurt either

 

[Connoisseur]

Anyone looking at Goldy now that Preuss is gone? Finished the year very well after a slow start scoring 12 out of 14 tons with the other scores being 95 and 61.

I’m really struggling to find an R2 I like (obviously). I have Kreuzer there at the moment but not especially keen on starting him due to his lack of durability and I really don’t want to go through the R2 merry go round again like last year!

I assume if Preuss couldn’t cement a spot in the team, Campbell won’t either.

One of my favourite players in the competition and is locked in.

7 of his first 11 matches at Marvel where he has averaged 115.15 from 71 (22/71 below 100, 30/71 120+) across his premium scoring history (95+avg) and also averaged 110.64 from 11 there in 2018.

Also he has averaged 120.83 from 42 (11/42 below 100, 22/42 120+) in Marvel Wins in his premium scoring history (only 2 games against 2018 Top 8 teams from their first 7 at Marvel in 2019)

Averaged 110 from 10 post bye in 2018.

Stat averages increments from 2017
Hitouts +5
Disposals +1
Marks +0.5

Since 2013 Goldstein has only averaged more disposals, kicks, handballs and marks in 2015 in comparison to his 2018 season.
But the past 2 years his Contested possession rate is less than 50% and tackles less than 3.

Only 2 of his last 13 games in 2018 he recorded less than 10 Hitouts to Advantage compared to the 13 games prior to RD10 2018 where he recorded 8/13 less than 10 HTA. The SC averages in those games was
RD10 2018 onwards: 110.54 from 13 (2/13 below 100)
RD20 2017-RD9 2018: 85.92 from 13 (9/13 below 100)

Also had 5 20+ disposals games post bye (averaged 121.6 from those 5) which was the first time since 2015 he has recorded more than 1 20+ disposal game in a season.

 

[Philzsay]

I have come to my first conclusion and strategy for picking my team this year. That is:

"Decide on my ruck strategy first. The rest of my team will fit around my rucks, not my rucks being determined by what I'm doing elsewhere. When it gets to the pointy end as the season starts in Rd 1 and we make final adjustments on our last couple of choices when the team selections drop; let any compromises or changes be to the rest of team. No compromises on what I deem to be the best ruck strategy to take, or the rucks I choose to execute that strategy."

My gut instinct is telling me that nailing the ruck strategy this year will result in a significant higher ranking.

Now to just figure out that strategy, not so easy!!!

 

[randomcliche]

first. The rest of my team will fit around my rucks, not my rucks being determined by what I'm doing elsewhere. When it gets to the pointy end as the season starts in Rd 1 and we make final adjustments on our last couple of choices when the team selections drop; let any compromises or changes be to the rest of team. No compromises on what I deem to be the best ruck strategy to take, or the rucks I choose to execute that strategy."

I think there are 4 viable strategies, at different price points, listed in order of E(p) and cost per R2, none without risk. All start Grundy.

• 1. Gawn ($1 million, insert Dr evil voice) - price risk, preuss risk.

My expected points per game to rnd 14: 127, cash gen doesn't matter not trading his arse (yes small drop due to magic number).

• 2. Goldie ($548k) - long tooth risk: (switch rnd 14 to Gawn)

E(p/g)14: 110-115 (but there is upside) cash gen $50k

• 3. Kreuzer ($433k): significant hospital risk (switch rnd 14 to Gawn).

E(p/g)14: 100-110 cash gen $100-$150k

• 4. Mumford ($320k) + Playing rookie/Hoff: long tooth risk (switch rnd 14 to Gawn).

E(P/g)14: 100-105 cash gen $200k+
*Rich/Crows/Suns also have serviceable rucks for a round 14 switcheroo, but nah.

Pick your poison and go from there. I actually think it will come down to how many rookies you want, and therefore how much cash you wish to dump into R2. What are your thoughts?

PS. There is also the round 5 panic and purchase Mumford strategy if not doing strategy 1/4. #tradesmoke

 

[Herbie66]

I have come to my first conclusion and strategy for picking my team this year. That is:

"Decide on my ruck strategy first. The rest of my team will fit around my rucks, not my rucks being determined by what I'm doing elsewhere. When it gets to the pointy end as the season starts in Rd 1 and we make final adjustments on our last couple of choices when the team selections drop; let any compromises or changes be to the rest of team. No compromises on what I deem to be the best ruck strategy to take, or the rucks I choose to execute that strategy."

My gut instinct is telling me that nailing the ruck strategy this year will result in a significant higher ranking.

Now to just figure out that strategy, not so easy!!!

one of Rowsus most important rules , pick the rucks first ? then the rookies , then the premiums

 

[Darkie]

I think there are 4 viable strategies, at different price points, listed in order of E(p) and cost per R2, none without risk. All start Grundy.

• 1. Gawn ($1 million, insert Dr evil voice) - price risk, preuss risk.

My expected points per game to rnd 14: 127, cash gen doesn't matter not trading his arse (yes small drop due to magic number).

• 2. Goldie ($548k) - long tooth risk: (switch rnd 14 to Gawn)

E(p/g)14: 110-115 (but there is upside) cash gen $50k

• 3. Kreuzer ($433k): significant hospital risk (switch rnd 14 to Gawn).

E(p/g)14: 100-110 cash gen $100-$150k

• 4. Mumford ($320k) + Playing rookie/Hoff: long tooth risk (switch rnd 14 to Gawn).

E(P/g)14: 100-105 cash gen $200k+
*Rich/Crows/Suns also have serviceable rucks for a round 14 switcheroo, but nah.

Pick your poison and go from there. I actually think it will come down to how many rookies you want, and therefore how much cash you wish to dump into R2. What are your thoughts?

PS. There is also the round 5 panic and purchase Mumford strategy if not doing strategy 1/4. #tradesmoke

Nice post. Personally I'm not treating Grundy as a given, albeit that I am currently looking at option 4, with 2 a viable backup in my view.

 

[toxic]

Distinct lack of love for Stef

Goldy my 1st picked after Preuss became Gawns sidekick

Currently have Stef over Grundy

 

[Bermi]

………..*Rich/Crows/Suns also have serviceable rucks for a round 14 switcheroo, but nah...…..

Just out of curiosity, why don't you like Nankervis?
I see him being a centurion SC scorer in 2019, as a lot of factors point that he is on his way to achieve that.

Toby Nankervis
Age: 24yr 4mth Games: 59 Height: 199cm Weight: 102kg
Past Supercoach Average Scores
Year Games Average
2015 5 42
2016 6 74.8
2017 21 88.8
2018 21 98.2

 

[Darkie]

Just out of curiosity, why don't you like Nankervis?
I see him being a centurion SC scorer in 2019, as a lot of factors point that he is on his way to achieve that.

Toby Nankervis
Age: 24yr 4mth Games: 59 Height: 199cm Weight: 102kg
Past Supercoach Average Scores
Year Games Average

2015542.0
2016674.8
20172188.8
20182198.2​

Which factors do you have in mind, Bermi?

I must say that his trajectory and age are both more favourable than I had thought.

I was burned early on not picking him the year that seemingly everyone did, perhaps that is still having an impact!

 

[Bermi]

Which factors do you have in mind, Bermi?

I must say that his tracjectory and age are both more favourable than I had thought.

I was burned early on not picking him the year that seemingly everyone did, perhaps that is still having an impact!

His trajectory is going in the right direction and his age indicates that he is expected to improve. I like the midfield players that he will be tapping to, to score points there. He is a solo ruckman, which is good and he's not injury prone. Lots of positives to take a gamble on.

 

[Grant]

I don't think Preuss will play more than a handful of games and Gawn will be an obvious choice. I'm more concerned about Gawn getting an injury than Preuss.

Worst case scenario in my mind (injury aside) is that Gawn is the second ranked ruck but drops about 150k during the season making him a better upgrade than starting option. Would much rather this than choosing a Jacobs type like last year who cost me points nearly every week before I finally traded him.

 

[randomcliche]

Just out of curiosity, why don't you like Nankervis?

Only hit 130+ once last season. I like players in the ruck line who can conceivably avg 110+ or make a bag of cash. 110 is tricky without a bag of 130plus scores.

Oh, yeah no love for a fully priced Stef, sorry. No rnd 14 bye into Gawn.

 

[Blaze]

Early gut thoughts.....Grundy looks such a gun hard not to pick but there are very good options so not a lock

I hear north rate xerri....handcuff Goldy Xerri looks solid and a mid/Fwd bonus for Xerri.

I have always liked Kreuzer as a fantasy option and he stands out as big value to me if he has a big pre season. Will track his fitness

Gawn hard to pass up too if no Preuss Round 1.

Early days Grundy Goldy Xerri but if I need $ I won't hesitate to take one out for Gawn R1 or special K if fit R2 in the hope of turning him in to the big dog I don't have mid season

 

[Bermi]

Only hit 130+ once last season. I like players in the ruck line who can conceivably avg 110+ or make a bag of cash. 110 is tricky without a bag of 130plus scores.

Oh, yeah no love for a fully priced Stef, sorry. No rnd 14 bye into Gawn.

I really don't know if Nankervis will average 110+ in 2019, I'm just saying there are a lot of factors that say he could, so worth a gamble.
I understand that you don't want to gamble and play safe, that's wise.

Regarding Nankervis only hit 130+ once in his 4th year as a ruckman.
I noticed that Grundy highest score in his 4th year as a ruckman was only 127 SC pts.
BUT I really don't like comparing two players, as each player is physically different and circumstances/environment are so different as well.

 

[randomcliche]

I really don't know if Nankervis will average 110+ in 2019, I'm just saying there are a lot of factors that say he could, so worth a gamble.
I understand that you don't want to gamble and play safe, that's wise.

Regarding Nankervis only hit 130+ once in his 4th year as a ruckman.
I noticed that Grundy highest score in his 4th year as a ruckman was only 127 SC pts.
BUT I really don't like comparing two players, as each player is physically different and circumstances/environment are so different as well.

Bermi, you are making a solid case for Nank. I often overlook the importance of playing every game (I always start Rocky, but perhaps not this year). I'm beginning to think that Nank is a pretty low risk pick. Right age, averages going in right direction, no premiership hangover for Tiges who have an improved lineup. Perhaps even their new recruit might give him a chop out when required, allowing him to rest a kick behind occasionally and take a few more intercept marks.

 

[Darkie]

It’s a minor point, but probably worth flagging that Nank actually hasn’t had a 22 game season yet ? Has played 21 each of the last two years though, with suspension being the cause of at least one of the missed games.

He also seemed to miss few games when in the NEAFL. I use this site for checking that type of thing - unfortunately it seems they stopped updating it in 2017, but it can still be handy:

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/117695/Toby-NANKERVIS

 

[Bermi]

It’s a minor point, but probably worth flagging that Nank actually hasn’t had a 22 game season yet ? Has played 21 each of the last two years though, with suspension being the cause of at least one of the missed games.

He also seemed to miss few games when in the NEAFL. I use this site for checking that type of thing - unfortunately it seems they stopped updating it in 2017, but it can still be handy:

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/117695/Toby-NANKERVIS

I miss the "afl player ratings" site too .

I would hope Nank has matured enough now not to be suspended again?
I could say that Grundy played his first season of 22 games in his 6th season and Gawn played his first season of 22 games in his 5th season, BUT REALLY, what happened in the past, or to others, is not really relevant to what will happen in 2019.
IF Nank has a history of injuries, then that's a different matter.

I understand that you said it's only a minor point and all minor points are good to evaluate, thanks for that!

I would like to point out that Nankervis is not a lock for me at this stage, just one of my "For Consideration' players.

----------------------------------------

Friday, 8 June 2018
Ruckman Toby Nankervis is currently ranked 11th in the competition for winning the first possession from the centre bounce, with only midfielders ahead of him...…….
Jennifer Phelan for AFL.com.au

 

[Darkie]

I miss the "afl player ratings" site too .

I would hope Nank has matured enough now not to be suspended again?
I could say that Grundy played his first season of 22 games in his 6th season and Gawn played his first season of 22 games in his 5th season, BUT REALLY, what happened in the past, or to others, is not really relevant to what will happen in 2019.
IF Nank has a history of injuries, then that's a different matter.

I understand that you said it's only a minor point and all minor points are good to evaluate, thanks for that!

I would like to point out that Nankervis is not a lock for me at this stage, just one of my "For Consideration' players.

----------------------------------------

Friday, 8 June 2018
Ruckman Toby Nankervis is currently ranked 11th in the competition for winning the first possession from the centre bounce, with only midfielders ahead of him...…….
Jennifer Phelan for AFL.com.au

Fair points Bermi. I haven’t run the numbers, but my sense is that a lot of rucks would also become more durable as their bodies mature, so if Nank has started well on that front and is still relatively young, he’s probably as reliable as any other ruck in terms of getting on the park.

 

[HotShame]

Anyone have any idea how Mummy is going?? Do they genuinely believe he will be ripe in R3??

 

[Philzsay]

Anyone have any idea how Mummy is going?? Do they genuinely believe he will be ripe in R3??

I found the following the other day:

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/12/04/lighter-and-fitter-mumford-ready-for-2019/

WS Academy Director John Quinn has given an update on Shane Mumford and how he’s kept himself in a condition capable of seeing him return to AFL level.
The Giants picked up Mumford as part of the new supplemental selection period after the ruckman retired at the end of 2017.
Quinn said his boxing work among other things has seen him stay in good shape.

“He’s kept himself in really good shape with boxing, he’s been doing a bit of running and movement work,” he told SEN Breakfast.
“He’s dropped a bit of weight and looks in great shape. His strength levels are up.
“With a player of his age, we take it as a point that he doesn’t have to do as much on legs because of the wear and tear of playing at this level, so it’s really a management situation, maintaining where he’s at.
“If he’d done his knee, it’s not too dissimilar to that. He’s probably in advance to that because he’s been able to maintain his fitness and he trained a lot with the players last year whilst he was coaching.”