Strategy Round 5: Trades

[IDIG]

Anyone else thinking about doing something crazy with me. I have 30 trades still and my team is good but nothing too exciting sitting in 20,000th

Gawn -> ROB.

Let me explain, as it seems crazy. I can see ROB scoring 80-90. Say Gawn stays at his 110 average. We are losing 20-30 points a week and a captain option but also Gawn will be losing a slight bit of cash (10-30k) while ROB hopefully hits 350k.

The main benefit here is with the trade I have 700k+ to play with now. That means Balta to R Marshall as F5 and next week Clark to J Lloyd.

Gawn/Parker/Clark = 110, 60, 55 = 225
ROB/Marshall/Lloyd = 80, 90, 110 = 280.

A gain of 55 points per week and cash generation, there are 3 main dangers though.

1. Gawn goes 135+, increases price and proves any ROB gains basically ineffective. Very possible with matchups against Marshall and Nank to come in the next two weeks.
2. ROB/Marshall fail and revert to Z Clarke/Dunkley equivalent selections.
3. If ROB gets injured in the next week or two it’s going to be very hard to turn him into anything significant without burning another two trades.

Thoughts? Has my lack of trading all year sent me loopy?

No not crazy but definitely not for the faint hearted and could just as easily backfire if/when Gawn goes on a run like he might with that upcoming draw.

I think you summarised the pros and cons pretty well and ideallly ROB would be on field over a rookie elsewhere but I think I’d only be willling to pull the trigger if i wasn’t holding Gawndy (Goldy/English for example). Otherwise ROB at R3 seems more appropriate.

I was pretty certain I was going to trade Gawn to ROB myself but when I ran through some trade scenarios, the first thing that occurred to me was that I wasn’t confident in any of my forward upgrade targets for next week. In your scenario with Lloyd over Clark, I can see the appeal.

I still think there’s merit in the trade and if Gawn was expected to drop in value due to a recent low score, I reckon I’d feel a bit better about trading him out but as it stands, I think you’d need your ideal scenario to occur for it to be worthwhile.

FWIW I don’t think it will derail your season if you did pulll the trigger and your worst case scenarios happened. It would just mean you’ve burnt a few extra trades which you have plenty of.

 

[Adrenaline]

I want to know now! very fair though. Can't help but feel that Bines on the forward bench is running face first into an oncoming wall... but may need to do it anyway.

this is my concern as well. with tkelly heeney, parker injuried and setters missing 2 weeks i feel bringing bines into the forward line is a bit of risk. i am probably going to make the trade. is everyone trading out parker or setters to facilitate to rob trade?

 

[JMLP]

Tossing up 2 options, need to get Darling outta my side I reckon.

Option 1:

Butters -> Stack
Darling-> Lloyd

Option 2:

Butters-> O'Brien
Darling -> Boak

Thoughts?

 

[Kumamoto Ken]

this is my concern as well. with tkelly heeney, parker injuried and setters missing 2 weeks i feel bringing bines into the forward line is a bit of risk. i am probably going to make the trade. is everyone trading out parker or setters to facilitate to rob trade?

Thinking about it but have the same fears regarding an upcoming donut. Might sit tight but there are a few rookies already close to stalling...genuine rookie roulette with some of those scores, and the risk that the man that gets traded bangs out a ton. Equally then man that is kept might stink it up with another 30-40...

 

[Bermi]

If I was an owner I would not be trading Westhoff unless he dishes up these poor scores again with Marshall back in the side.
Marshall will be playing this week meaning Hoff can roam more and collect his uncontested possessions.
Westhoff has had the following scores against West Coast in recent times:
86 85 136 92
For a 100 average.

Nailed it!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1118683668325650432

I think you have to hold!

In Rd 2 Marshall played and Westhoff scored 47 pts, so as a Westhoff owner, that doesn't give me much confidence.
Also Marshall (a 198cm 20yo) was dropped after Rd2, why? I don't know, just guessing because he is not AFL ready??? So I am not confident with Marshall as he could be dropped next week or the week after.
Dixon is likely to return after the Byes, that would help, but how many League games is Westhoff going to cost me because of his low scoring?
PTA is playing a faster style game this year, so I'm not sure that Westhoff's past scoring is that relevant?
After Westhoff's 2 poor scores, I waited another week to give him a chance, so I waited a week already.
I'm not saying Westhoff won't belt out a 100 pts game this week or next, I'm saying I can't see how he can do that, unless Ryder or Lycett don't play.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/04...ort-adelaide-return-in-second-half-of-season/
Robbie Gray says Charlie Dixon is aiming to return to the Power line-up in the second half of the season.
Dixon hasn’t played since Round 21 last year due to an ankle injury.
The 28-year-old took his first step towards recovery yesterday, and Gray is positive that he can make an impact for the side later in the year.

 

[Herbie66]

@Bermi

your Westhoff conundrum is simple

keep or trade ?

5000 posts about it and you still haven't decided hahaha

once he drops under $ 400k many will be bringing him in

good luck

 

[Nathan]

In Rd 2 Marshall played and Westhoff scored 47 pts, so as a Westhoff owner, that doesn't give me much confidence.
Also Marshall (a 198cm 20yo) was dropped after Rd2, why? I don't know, just guessing because he is not AFL ready??? So I am not confident with Marshall as he could be dropped next week or the week after.
Dixon is likely to return after the Byes, that would help, but how many League games is Westhoff going to cost me because of his low scoring?
PTA is playing a faster style game this year, so I'm not sure that Westhoff's past scoring is that relevant?
After Westhoff's 2 poor scores, I waited another week to give him a chance, so I waited a week already.
I'm not saying Westhoff won't belt out a 100 pts game this week or next, I'm saying I can't see how he can do that, unless Ryder or Lycett don't play.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/04...ort-adelaide-return-in-second-half-of-season/
Robbie Gray says Charlie Dixon is aiming to return to the Power line-up in the second half of the season.
Dixon hasn’t played since Round 21 last year due to an ankle injury.
The 28-year-old took his first step towards recovery yesterday, and Gray is positive that he can make an impact for the side later in the year.

It at least gives some hope he could turn it around for those that want to hold.

You don’t, so just trade him.

 

[Bermi]

@Bermi

your Westhoff conundrum is simple

keep or trade ?

5000 posts about it and you still haven't decided hahaha

once he drops under $ 400k many will be bringing him in

good luck

It at least gives some hope he could turn it around for those that want to hold.

You don’t, so just trade him.

Westhoff is the last hope of a potential decent scoring Fwd/Ruc cover for the 2 ruckmen. If that wasn't the case, Westhoff would have been traded out long ago, actually, I never would have started with him in at all.
I hope Grundy has steel toe plated footy boots on when he plays

 

[Bomber18]

Westhoff is the last hope of a potential decent scoring Fwd/Ruc cover for the 2 ruckmen. If that wasn't the case, Westhoff would have been traded out long ago, actually, I never would have started with him in at all.
I hope Grundy has steel toe plated footy boots on when he plays

My verdict is hold... there is hope now with those KH comments. He’s too cheap now to trade, only $430k. He only needs to average 90 odd from here to have been worth the hold.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Take the red pill or the blue pill , Bermi, your choice.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Okay, worked out a way I can get both Marshall and ROB..

OUT: Moore, Butters
IN: Marshall, ROB

Only problem is that my FWD bench would be Balta and Bines with Drew and Parker on field.

Thoughts?

 

[Bomber18]

Okay, worked out a way I can get both Marshall and ROB..

OUT: Moore, Butters
IN: Marshall, ROB

Only problem is that my FWD bench would be Balta and Bines with Drew and Parker on field.

Thoughts?

You’d be filthy if Parker was a late out.... but assuming Parker is fine, I think it’s okay.

I think I would personally double downgrade to stack/rob and grab Marshall next week for $430-440k with the benefit of having seen the Gawn game. $25-35k isn’t all that much to pay for a bit more information?

 

[NT.Thunder]

Okay, worked out a way I can get both Marshall and ROB..

OUT: Moore, Butters
IN: Marshall, ROB

Only problem is that my FWD bench would be Balta and Bines with Drew and Parker on field.

Thoughts?

I'm looking at a similar trade but will keep Moore. I'll probably trade 2 of Butters/Setters/Parker and bring in ROB and Marshall. This will move Moore to F5 and Drew F6. I'm losing too many points over that F5/6 spot.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1118687058069839873

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1118348206872469504

J Westhoff:
2018 POSITION SPLITS

FORWARD: 37%

RUCK: 34%

WING: 23%

2019 POSITION SPLITS

FORWARD: 71%

RUCK: 0%

WING: 28%

DEFENCE: 1%

 

[Bermi]

Take the red pill or the blue pill , Bermi, your choice.

That's the problem, neither one is a good pill

 

[Herbie66]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1118687058069839873

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1118348206872469504

J Westhoff:
2018 POSITION SPLITS

FORWARD: 37%

RUCK: 34%

WING: 23%

2019 POSITION SPLITS

FORWARD: 71%

RUCK: 0%

WING: 28%

DEFENCE: 1%

2018 adds up to 94% yet 2019 is the full 100% ?

 

[Connoisseur]

2018 adds up to 94% yet 2019 is the full 100% ?

Copied and pasted the percentages from the article mentioned and I assume the remaining 6% would be in defence.

 

[Slacker]

In Rd 2 Marshall played and Westhoff scored 47 pts, so as a Westhoff owner, that doesn't give me much confidence.

5000 posts about it and you still haven't decided hahaha

Don't worry Bermi, it's just something them other non - Westhoff owners will just never understand . It's debilitating and distracts from all other rational and uninhibited thoughts . I too feel your suffering.

 

[Herbie66]

Copied and pasted the percentages from the article mentioned and I assume the remaining 6% would be in defence.

unless he was hiding behind Dixon and they couldn't see him ?

wonder if Kenny might try him in Watts role in defence ?

 

[Herbie66]

Don't worry Bermi, it's just something them other non - Westhoff owners will just never understand . It's debilitating and distracts from all other rational and uninhibited thoughts .

hence why I have said in the next few rounds , most people will be looking at trading him IN

Under $ 400k is too much value to ignore

but maybe that's irrational ?