Strategy Round 13: Trades

[Herbie66]

Sorry for the late reply @Herbie66. Below are the requested figures for R Gray at Adelaide Oval since 2011 (2014 was the move from West Lakes but they played at AO in 2011) and S Lycett at AO in 2019.

R Gray:
AO: 107.16 from 61 (19/61 below 100, 22/61 120+)
2011: 107 from 1
2014: 116.33 from 12
2015: 117.45 from 11
2016: 114.45 from 11
2017: 91.92 from 12
2018: 104.36 from 11
2019: 77.33 from 3 (89 from 2 excluding injury affected 54 in RD6)

AO Wins: 110.46 from 35 (10/35 below 100, 14/35 120+)
2011: 107 from 1
2014: 118.56 from 9
2015: 116.5 from 6
2016: 120 from 3
2017: 104.38 from 8
2018: 106.33 from 6
2019: 80 from 2

AO Losses: 102.73 from 26 (9/26 below 100, 8/26 120+)
2014: 109.67 from 3
2015: 118.6 from 5
2016: 112.38 from 8
2017: 67 from 4
2018: 102 from 5
2019: 72 from 1

Remaining games at AO are against Geel, WB, Adel, Bris, GWS, Syd and Freo.

S Lycett:
2019 AO Avg: 98.2 from 5 (3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
2019 AO Wins Avg: 101.33 from 3 (2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
2019 AO Losses Avg: 93.5 from 2 (1/2 below 100)
2019 Interstate Avg (excluding China): 60.75 from 4 (3/4 below 70, 4/4 below 80)

No need to apologise, continually go above and beyond here providing stats and advice

Reconfirms my thoughts on Gray, so look forward to welcoming him back to my team......expect them to beat the WB, Bris, Syd and Freo , 50/50 the other 3 games.

Lycett looks interesting too, will monitor McEvoy tonight and Darcy & Lycett tomorrow, the budget won't stretch to Grundy by the looks of things

Thanks again

 

[Connoisseur]

No need to apologise, continually go above and beyond here providing stats and advice

Reconfirms my thoughts on Gray, so look forward to welcoming him back to my team......expect them to beat the WB, Bris, Syd and Freo , 50/50 the other 3 games.

Lycett looks interesting too, will monitor McEvoy tonight and Darcy & Lycett tomorrow, the budget won't stretch to Grundy by the looks of things

Thanks again

Wouldn't bother about Lycett as he doesn't record sufficient hitouts to warrant selection in conjunction with the 167 which you'd assume will be an outlier which exaggerates his average but he has greatly improved his HTA rate this season. In regards to Gray I'd rue the non selection at his current price so I'm not missing out either way it pans out and if turns out to be a poor selection then so be it.

 

[Herbie66]

Wouldn't bother about Lycett as he doesn't record sufficient hitouts to warrant selection but has greatly improved his HTA rate in conjunction with the 167 which you'd assume will be an outlier which exaggerates his average.

Cheers for that, don't mind McEvoy so will see how he goes tonight.

 

[Herbie66]

Mumford -> Gray via Westhoff gives me $ 193,100.00 to play with

next targets will be :-

Duursma - M Crouch before this round $ 134,400.00 difference in price
Walsh to a premium ruckman Grundy will cost me $ 235,000.00 at the moment

only realistic bench options to downgrade are Answerth & Setterfield

yikes......I could end up with a very interesting team for the rest of the season

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Who do you guys reckon is more likely to hit their B/E this week?
Sicily or Boak?

Will bring one in this week and the other next, thanks!

 

[Slacker]

Need one to finish the fwd line but have been struck down with Analysis Paralysis...
Ziebell, b.e. dictates he should come in this week, but has bye next round and has a somewhat Kamikaze game style (low on trades).
Mundy, b.e dictates he should come in after 2 more rounds, is he worth the wait, quite possibly.
Marshall, going all right, but "young" and inexperienced and also quite likely to be rested later in the season (Longer, Pierce) as St Kilda's season slips further away.
Suppose I could wait and grab Heeney next round as a value option, but every man and his dog has him, and there is always the Buddy effect.

Kelly, Danger, Boak, Dunkley, Daniel and who???

For some reason the last upgrade in a line feels the most critical as there really is no easy going back from it. Like trying to find the last piece in a Jigsaw Puzzle.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Need one to finish the fwd line but have been struck down with Analysis Paralysis...
Ziebell, b.e. dictates he should come in this week, but has bye next round and has a somewhat Kamikaze game style (low on trades).
Mundy, b.e dictates he should come in after 2 more rounds, is he worth the wait, quite possibly.
Marshall, going all right, but "young" and inexperienced and also quite likely to be rested later in the season (Longer, Pierce) as St Kilda's season slips further away.
Suppose I could wait and grab Heeney next round as a value option, but every man and his dog has him, and there is always the Buddy effect.

Kelly, Danger, Boak, Dunkley, Daniel and who???

For some reason the last upgrade in a line feels the most critical as there really is no easy going back from it. Like trying to find the last piece in a Jigsaw Puzzle.

I would go Marshall

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Need one to finish the fwd line but have been struck down with Analysis Paralysis...
Ziebell, b.e. dictates he should come in this week, but has bye next round and has a somewhat Kamikaze game style (low on trades).
Mundy, b.e dictates he should come in after 2 more rounds, is he worth the wait, quite possibly.
Marshall, going all right, but "young" and inexperienced and also quite likely to be rested later in the season (Longer, Pierce) as St Kilda's season slips further away.
Suppose I could wait and grab Heeney next round as a value option, but every man and his dog has him, and there is always the Buddy effect.

Kelly, Danger, Boak, Dunkley, Daniel and who???

For some reason the last upgrade in a line feels the most critical as there really is no easy going back from it. Like trying to find the last piece in a Jigsaw Puzzle.

I'm not sure we'll see Marshall rested. His TOG has been increasing the last 4-6 weeks from memory, and from what I gather the Saints love him. Signed a new contract during the week, and the showings at the top level from Pierce and Longer have been ordinary at best.

 

[Slacker]

Who do you guys reckon is more likely to hit their B/E this week?
Sicily or Boak?

Will bring one in this week and the other next, thanks!

Shouldn't the question be, who is Sicily more likely to hit this week ?

Tough call, but my research gives them each a 43% chance of reaching their Breakevens so may have to factor in other considerations like B/E's of the trade-outs etc

 

[Grundogging]

Thanks guys, 50/50. I might read a few more posts and make a last minute decision before tonight's game.

I went the other way to Ryan - the intercept marking, high possession rate and kick ins swayed me (not to mention him being more of a POD).

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Shouldn't the question be, who is Sicily more likely to hit this week ?

Tough call, but my research gives them each a 43% chance of reaching their Breakevens so may have to factor in other considerations like B/E's of the trade-outs etc

Just feel likes Boak has a higher chance of scoring 130s as compared to Sicily and he's priced slightly higher now so even if Sicily goes up, it wouldn't be too much.

 

[BomberSam]

Looks like I really only need to trade in one of Bewley or Clarke now. It's gotta be Bewley on the bubble because I can grab Clarke next week. The question is, who for?

Atkins or Answerth? Trying to measure up point scoring capacity vs. likely cash generation. Any thoughts on this?

 

[7/11]

Looks like I really only need to trade in one of Bewley or Clarke now. It's gotta be Bewley on the bubble because I can grab Clarke next week. The question is, who for?

Atkins or Answerth? Trying to measure up point scoring capacity vs. likely cash generation. Any thoughts on this?

You'd think Answerth has another 30-50K to earn before he is ripe for the selling. It may take 2-3 weeks, but it should happen as he semi-regularly scores 60-70 with the odd sub 40 score.

Atkins on the other hand is one of those rookies who in the right role can punch out 80+ scores. However, his downside is that he plays in a very strong team where their midfield take a lot of the points (Telly, Dangerfield and Duncan).

Answerth has St Kilda next week, so potential for him to hit a decent score. Atkins I would prefer though as he has the better point scoring capacity.

 

[Lgndhen23]

Accidentally did my trades this morning thinking I could reverse them

Brought in hately and only have 15 players this week goodbye top 100 ranking

 

[Zimmer]

Call me crazy but I actually prefer Daniel/Bont, seems to be less injury prone and more consistent

I've got a situation where: 1. I'll have 4 premo Dogs, plus Gardner and: 2. this week I have no VC/C options other than Cripps and Macrae/Dunkley (Bont.) Is it worth Gray and say Fyfe or Zerrett for this week as a VC loop option. (I'm sure the answer is no... but I've got pre-game, pre trade nerves.)

 

[BomberSam]

Accidentally did my trades this morning thinking I could reverse them

Brought in hately and only have 15 players this week goodbye top 100 ranking

Oh no! Feeling for you. That is such a costly blunder especially when you are ranked so high.

 

[Zim^zuM]

I'm going to have to trade one of Hore or Rockliff. Who should go? I felt Hore was good enough to keep for now. Both miss this week. Hore will be back next week, surely rocky is too since he was a test 2 weeks ago and flew to china. I think they are just holding off travelling to Perth, hard ground blah.

At least when Hore bag is gone I have Duursma as D6. If I trade rocky then I'm still stuck with a rookie at M7 and M8. With the Hore trade then its just M8.

I will be down to 9 trades so I cant stuff around with sideways trades.

 

[Crabby Skills]

You'd think Answerth has another 30-50K to earn before he is ripe for the selling. It may take 2-3 weeks, but it should happen as he semi-regularly scores 60-70 with the odd sub 40 score.

Atkins on the other hand is one of those rookies who in the right role can punch out 80+ scores. However, his downside is that he plays in a very strong team where their midfield take a lot of the points (Telly, Dangerfield and Duncan).

Answerth has St Kilda next week, so potential for him to hit a decent score. Atkins I would prefer though as he has the better point scoring capacity.

Pondering the same. The only thing swaying me the other way is that they love Atkins at Geelong, and he'll definitely be there next week. But Brisbane just lost to Carlton and Answerth played crap, so his JS might be jeopardy...

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

I'm going to have to trade one of Hore or Rockliff. Who should go? I felt Hore was good enough to keep for now. Both miss this week. Hore will be back next week, surely rocky is too since he was a test 2 weeks ago and flew to china. I think they are just holding off travelling to Perth, hard ground blah.

At least when Hore bag is gone I have Duursma as D6. If I trade rocky then I'm still stuck with a rookie at M7 and M8. With the Hore trade then its just M8.

I will be down to 9 trades so I cant stuff around with sideways trades.

I'd be more inclined to trade Rocky out. Hore is a potential D6 which you can turn into someone like Hurn or Lloyd if need be.

 

[Juzzo]

Get rid of Scott or Answerth this week?