Opinion 2020: Super Early Player Discussions

[pizza safety]

I didn’t watch a lot of the Swans this year, but I think role has been at least as big an issue for Heeney as his fitness. Buddy being out, or less than 100%, seems to lead to Heeney playing more time forward, which is very frustrating as an owner.

He can score so quickly when he’s in the play, I think he just needs more mid time to go to the next level that he’s clearly capable of. Whether Buddy is fitter/other personnel changes free up Heeney to play in the middle will be the key questions for me in deciding whether to start him.

Yeah the Buddy being out thing definitely played a role but reading how injured he was last year its difficult to say exactly why he spent so much time forward. We can't really bank on Buddy staying fit next year either given how the last two seasons have gone for him.

I also read an article saying Heeney is no longer in the leadership group with the implication that he was removed so he can focus solely on his own football after being in the wars so much this year.

 

[Professor]

Links within

So to recap - the potential breakouts outlined by 'The Phantom'

Chayce Jones
Hunter Clarke
Andrew Brayshaw
Jordan Dawson
Will Brodie

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1207922216672714753

 

[pizza safety]

Links within

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1207922216672714753

If he's mentioned Dawson at that price I'm surprised he didn't mention Byrne-Jones or Dan Houston because he brought them both up at stages last year.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Dawson pretty much broke out this year with his late season scoring, at 450k he is more in the cheap premium range of defs/fwds.

I just can't decide whether or not there is enough value there, pretty much backing him in to becoming a star in 2020 at that price, when someone like Gibbs will be 100k cheaper.

 

[Rowsus]

I've seen a few here mention Byrne-Jones.
Take this for what you will.
DBJ when Ryan Burton didn't play:
101, 115, 87, 76, 127, 110 - 6/102.7
DBJ when Ryan Burton played less than 50% TOG:
66, 130 - 2/98
DBJ when Ryan Burton played 73+% TOG:
76, 91, 79, 61, 59, 52, 92, 90, 84, 80, 117, 121, 7, 97 - 14/79.0 or 13/84.5 without the 7.

Or broken in 2:
DBJ when Burton played 0-43% TOG - 8/101.5
DBJ when not injured, and Burton played 73+% TOG - 13/84.5

 

[pizza safety]

I've seen a few here mention Byrne-Jones.
Take this for what you will.
DBJ when Ryan Burton didn't play:
101, 115, 87, 76, 127, 110 - 6/102.7
DBJ when Ryan Burton played less than 50% TOG:
66, 130 - 2/98
DBJ when Ryan Burton played 73+% TOG:
76, 91, 79, 61, 59, 52, 92, 90, 84, 80, 117, 121, 7, 97 - 14/79.0 or 13/84.5 without the 7.

Or broken in 2:
DBJ when Burton played 0-43% TOG - 8/101.5
DBJ when not injured, and Burton played 73+% TOG - 13/84.5

That’s some good information to know.

I prefer Dan Houston if he’s going to be playing midfield next season as he thrived in there a number of times last season and has the elite kicking ability the power lack through the midfield.

 

[Connoisseur]

Is it madness to start Heeney over Dusty at F2?

With Dusty it's probably a safe 100 average for the year but he can start slow and you can pick him up for cheaper later in the year. He still does have the potential to average 110 but you have to feel a high end average of about 105 is more likely at this stage in his career.

With Heeney he's a bit cheaper and I do think he still has a 110 average season in him if he gets the right role in the side and his body is right. He looked on track for this kind of average in the first half of 2018 but he got concussed and then things fell apart from there on.

Heeney has kind of been the Bont of the forward line the past two seasons as we've all expected an increase in the volume of his stats but he has failed to deliver. Heeney has averaged 20 disposals a game for 3 years in a row and despite being damaging with his possessions can't seem to get that number up, which he needs to in order to take another step.

Bont was the same for 2017 and 2018 as we waited to see if Bont could add more volume to his game and he could be a 115 avg type scorer and he finally did that this year. He did this at the exact moment everybody jumped off him and he started in just 4% of teams heading into 2019. Heeney probably doesn't have Bont's ceiling and isn't the same level of player but I can't help but feel its a question of when and not if he averages close to 110 for a season.

I still probably favour Dusty but if Heeney starts the year in less than 15% of teams I could be very tempted to pick him.

Both get niggling injuries that are annoying but come and go like the wind.

Edit: It turns out that Heeney struggled with that ankle injury all year as well as other injuries and he said it was the most "beat up" he'd ever been playing footy, so it definitely didn't go away like the wind. Not sure whether to interpret this as a good sign that he should be better if his body permits him to play good football or whether it only highlights that throughout his career he has the consistent habit of picking up minor and annoying injuries which affect his preparation and performance (see his footywire bio).

No.
Agree will all of the sentiments displayed above.


Avg since 2017: 96.26 from 61 (16/61 below 80, 33/61 below 100, 11/61 120+)



Since 2017, Heeney averages 20.44 disposals.

SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108.78 from 27 (1/27 below 80, 8/27 below 100, 7/27 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 21: 86.32 from 34 (14/34 below 80, 25/34 below 100, 4/34 120+)

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Heeney is a lock at F1 with Sydney trading in a number of small forwards and Buddy being fit.

Sydney might surprise a few this year I think.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I’m hearing a rumour that SC Gold picker might be available tomorrow at some stage... here’s hoping ?

 

[Manikato1]

I’m hearing a rumour that SC Gold picker might be available tomorrow at some stage... here’s hoping ?

I was unreliably informed some time ago that they were holding it back this year so fantasy players might get interested in BBL first and that indeed 23 rd Dec was the release date.

Never played BBL before and given how my team is going bring on AFL supercoach asap.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I was unreliably informed some time ago that they were holding it back this year so fantasy players might get interested in BBL first and that indeed 23 rd Dec was the release date.

Never played BBL before and given how my team is going bring on AFL supercoach asap.

I didn’t hear this, but the exact thought crossed my mind. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the reason for the late launch this year.

 

[IDIG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1208696568578101248

 

[Manikato1]

Time to start a new thread Bomber? - 2020 Pre Season Discussions?