Position Midfielder Discussion

[Connoisseur]

The thing I have noticed about both Kelly & Cogs is that they seem to really pummel weak teams, even more so then other premiums vs weak teams, so i think pre/post bye draws matter even more with those two, if there is a better half.

Kelly is a 115-120 mid, I don't think Cogs is that.

S Coniglio:
Wins avg since 2016: 109.37 from 41 (16/41 below 100, 14/41 120+)
2016 Wins Avg: 111.13 from 16 (4/16 below 100, 6/16 120+)
2017 Wins Avg: 90.2 from 5 (4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
2018 Wins Avg: 107.67 from 12 (6/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)
2019 Wins Avg: 120.38 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

Losses Avg since 2016: 93.59 from 22 (12/22 below 100, 4/22 120+)
2016 Losses Avg: 89.2 from 5 (4/5 below 100)
2017 Losses Avg: 94.5 from 2 (1/2 below 100)
2018 Losses Avg: 108.63 from 8 (3/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
2019 Losses Avg: 79.29 from 7 (4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)



J Kelly:
Wins Avg since 2017: 121.44 from 32 (8/32 below 100, 16/32 120+)
2017 Wins Avg: 119.31 from 13 (3/13 below 100, 6/13 120+)
2018 Wins Avg: 121.91 from 11 (4/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)
2019 Wins Avg: 124.25 from 8 (1/8 below 100, 5/8 120+)

Losses Avg since 2017: 101.5 from 16 (10/16 below 100, 1/16 120+)
2017 Losses Avg: 101.33 from 6 (2/6 below 100)
2018 Losses Avg: 91.5 from 4 (4/4 below 100)
2019 Losses Avg: 108.33 from 6 (2/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)


2020 GWS Fixture:

 

[pizza safety]

ive looked into Dunkley a little more. tossing up between him and Neale/JKelly/Treloar

ave for the year 116.45
ave post bye 130.9
ave post bye when libba didnt play 135 (7 games)
ave post bye when libba did play 123.75 (4 games) but if you remove the rd 13 game where libba gets injured and then misses the next 4 games dunkley average drops to 107...

*** note i cant remember when dunkley moved to an increase midfield time but when they did play together pre bye dunkley averaged 102 and libba averaged 93 (both from 11 games each)

attached are my calculations as i have done these only very quickly.

He moved to increased midfield time in round 7 and basically swapped roles with Libba until Libba got injured the first time.

Also in round 9 at Geelong they played Dunkley much more up forward (think 40-50%) in a bid to have a forward target against what was then the leagues best back line and whilst their forward line was struggling. He scored in the 80’s as a consequence.

 

[lipsunited]

He moved to increased midfield time in round 7 and basically swapped roles with Libba until Libba got injured the first time.

Also in round 9 at Geelong they played Dunkley much more up forward (think 40-50%) in a bid to have a forward target against what was then the leagues best back line and whilst their forward line was struggling. He scored in the 80’s as a consequence.

thanks mate. This would obviously push up his average when playing with Libba in the team with Dunkley as a main mid. I had him all last year and didn’t think twice about the selection as a fwd but as a mid u really can’t get it wrong or ur chasing ur tail

 

[Grundogging]

He moved to increased midfield time in round 7 and basically swapped roles with Libba until Libba got injured the first time.

Also in round 9 at Geelong they played Dunkley much more up forward (think 40-50%) in a bid to have a forward target against what was then the leagues best back line and whilst their forward line was struggling. He scored in the 80’s as a consequence.

I think I remember that game - it could easily have been another ton there as he didn't finish on a couple of sitters (one set shot, one ground ball close to goal) and also dropped a couple of gettable marks if I recall correctly.

I can't see the Doggies having any issues with needing to play Dunkley out of position in 2020 with their recent acquisitions, but CBA's and stoppages might be an issue with so many midfield mouths to feed.

What it does do is puts a bit of a question mark over the Bont in terms of time spent in the middle, as the their midfield is super-deep now and there's some chance Bevo might rest him forward a bit more often to keep him fresh.

 

[Misky]

Ok a bit of a left field pick but any interest in Angus Brayshaw? I know he burnt quite a few last year and is probably part of numerous never again lists but Melbourne recruited 2 wingman over the trade period so should slot back into the guts presumably? Interested to hear Melbourne supporters view on him

 

[Santoz]

Ok a bit of a left field pick but any interest in Angus Brayshaw? I know he burnt quite a few last year and is probably part of numerous never again lists but Melbourne recruited 2 wingman over the trade period so should slot back into the guts presumably? Interested to hear Melbourne supporters view on him

He crossed my mind. I don't see why not. Plenty will be jumping on the mid pricers in other lines, so he could be a nice left field choice if you're happy to take a risk in the mids as opposed to the forwards or defense. For example, plenty are jumping on Devon Smith, like me, but if he's played as a 'pressure forward' (as a measure of body management) as opposed to in the middle then Smith owners won't be getting much bang for our buck.

Will monitor Brayshaw with interest.

 

[Grundogging]

He crossed my mind. I don't see why not. Plenty will be jumping on the mid pricers in other lines, so he could be a nice left field choice if you're happy to take a risk in the mids as opposed to the forwards or defense. For example, plenty are jumping on Devon Smith, like me, but if he's played as a 'pressure forward' (as a measure of body management) as opposed to in the middle then Smith owners won't be getting much bang for our buck.

Will monitor Brayshaw with interest.

I had Brayshaw last year and watching him closely in most games - he had plenty of opportunity to still impact on stoppages in the midfield but most of the time just drifted around the periphery and wasn't getting to the right spots to impact on the contest and there wasn't much in the way of repeat efforts once the ball got past him.

Generally speaking when he did get the ball his kicking was to be honest rather ****house and he just seemed totally disinterested a lot of the time. There's a lot he needs to tidy up in order to have an impact out on the ground in general in 2020, nevermind in SC.

 

[Hazza]

What it does do is puts a bit of a question mark over the Bont in terms of time spent in the middle, as the their midfield is super-deep now and there's some chance Bevo might rest him forward a bit more often to keep him fresh.

I'm surprised we always look for a reason to question Bont every preseason, imo he's quite clearly a generational talent, he's the best and most damaging midfielder at the dogs, it is well within their interest to make sure he's playing as much midfield time as possible because he decides the outcomes of games from there not up forward, to me they went for bruce so they don't have to rest him there as often, I can see him going at 120-130 sooner rather than later, he's that good sometimes we just need to keep it simple and look at his abilities and wait for the numbers to follow rather than over-analysing what could effect him, prefer him to dunkley despite the numbers suggesting otherwise, just my 2 cents

 

[pizza safety]

Ok a bit of a left field pick but any interest in Angus Brayshaw? I know he burnt quite a few last year and is probably part of numerous never again lists but Melbourne recruited 2 wingman over the trade period so should slot back into the guts presumably? Interested to hear Melbourne supporters view on him

Where does he sit in their inside midfield pecking order? It’s probably Oliver, Viney, Harmes and then Brayshaw. So maybe if he’s not on the wing he might spend more time away from the midfield in general.

 

[Grundogging]

I'm surprised we always look for a reason to question Bont every preseason, imo he's quite clearly a generational talent, he's the best and most damaging midfielder at the dogs, it is well within their interest to make sure he's playing as much midfield time as possible because he decides the outcomes of games from there not up forward, to me they went for bruce so they don't have to rest him there as often, I can see him going at 120-130 sooner rather than later, he's that good sometimes we just need to keep it simple and look at his abilities and wait for the numbers to follow rather than over-analysing what could effect him, prefer him to dunkley despite the numbers suggesting otherwise, just my 2 cents

There's never a question about Bont himself for the record - it's always about Bevo and the scatterbrained ideas he gets in his head.

The issue regarding the number of mouths to feed in the Bulldogs midfield is, however, a real one - both with the established stars and the young kids coming through. We'll have to wait to see how it pans out and the Bevo factor is one that can't be ignored on that front.

 

[Darkie]

Some good points made above re Bont and Bevo.

Beveridge seems to make decisions that at least I can’t rationalise, which makes me more wary of starting Dogs players that have any kind of role uncertainty.

If in doubt I try to err on players from clubs that are honest, fairly open and make decisions that appear rational to me.

For what it’s worth I’ll be starting Macrae, and Bont is about my 6th or 7th favorite starting mid at the moment.

 

[Hazza]

Some good points made above re Bont and Bevo.

Beveridge seems to make decisions that at least I can’t rationalise, which makes me more wary of starting Dogs players that have any kind of role uncertainty.

If in doubt I try to err on players from clubs that are honest, fairly open and make decisions that appear rational to me.

For what it’s worth I’ll be starting Macrae, and Bont is about my 6th or 7th favorite starting mid at the moment.

I see what both you guys are saying but I really do think that the Bevo issue is a non factor we can't forget that Bont was still a young player going into last season and like a lot of great midfielders eg fyfe danger dusty he started out spending a lot of time forward and gradually turned into a full time mid and from what I witnessed last year while owning him from round 13 onwards where he averaged 117 he made the transition into a full time midfielder and was incredibly difficult to tag, very durable he had a game where he got injured and scraped 70 which is important and decided games the one against geelong comes to mind, wanted to raise this because he's my 6th choice too but should he maybe be higher? haha

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Ok a bit of a left field pick but any interest in Angus Brayshaw? I know he burnt quite a few last year and is probably part of numerous never again lists but Melbourne recruited 2 wingman over the trade period so should slot back into the guts presumably? Interested to hear Melbourne supporters view on him

Where does he sit in their inside midfield pecking order? It’s probably Oliver, Viney, Harmes and then Brayshaw. So maybe if he’s not on the wing he might spend more time away from the midfield in general.

Judging from what I read in the Melbourne BF forums, the Demons had massive issues with the ball use out of the middle and Brayshaw was a big part of that problem they think, so I don't know how Melbourne bringing in 2 wingers (not even sure that's Tomlinson's go) with average ball use fixes that problem?

Basically, unless you know how their midfield is going to function and who that exactly benefits I would be avoiding them all with the exception of Oliver and Gawn.

 

[Darkie]

I see what both you guys are saying but I really do think that the Bevo issue is a non factor we can't forget that Bont was still a young player going into last season and like a lot of great midfielders eg fyfe danger dusty he started out spending a lot of time forward and gradually turned into a full time mid and from what I witnessed last year while owning him from round 13 onwards where he averaged 117 he made the transition into a full time midfielder and was incredibly difficult to tag, very durable he had a game where he got injured and scraped 70 which is important and decided games the one against geelong comes to mind, wanted to raise this because he's my 6th choice too but should he maybe be higher? haha

Haha - there are some 2017-19 owners of guys like Mclean, Libba and Bont who might take a different view on Bevo's impact

I agree that Bont is a gun player, durable (both between and in games) and that it's a well-trodden path for quality mids to play forward early in their career. If you think his upside is 120+ then I think he's quite an appealing starter. At the moment I'm seeing him as largely a "what you see is what you get", 22 games @ 110-115 type of selection, with some downside risk if he's played out of position.

Who are you picking ahead of him at this stage?

 

[Hazza]

Haha - there are some 2017-19 owners of guys like Mclean, Libba and Bont who might take a different view on Bevo's impact

I agree that Bont is a gun player, durable (both between and in games) and that it's a well-trodden path for quality mids to play forward early in their career. If you think his upside is 120+ then I think he's quite an appealing starter. At the moment I'm seeing him as largely a "what you see is what you get", 22 games @ 110-115 type of selection, with some downside risk if he's played out of position.

Who are you picking ahead of him at this stage?

Currently Macrae Neale Cripps Fyfe and Danger and unless injury occurs Neale Macrae and Cripps aren't moving, quite like Josh Kelly Dunkley and Oliver as other premium options too

 

[Darkie]

Currently Macrae Neale Cripps Fyfe and Danger and unless injury occurs Neale Macrae and Cripps aren't moving, quite like Josh Kelly Dunkley and Oliver as other premium options too

Well I hope you're in the money then!

I have Macrae, Neale, Cripps, Danger and Oliver.

Fyfe and Kelly I'll pass on as starters given the injury risk, and Dunkley I'm reluctant to pay 117 for at this point. Any of the latter three could hurt me though.

 

[Grundogging]

Well I hope you're in the money then!

I have Macrae, Neale, Cripps, Danger and Oliver.

Fyfe and Kelly I'll pass on as starters given the injury risk, and Dunkley I'm reluctant to pay 117 for at this point. Any of the latter three could hurt me though.

Interesting that your locking in 5 mids at this early stage - none of the mid-pricers tempting you?

 

[Darkie]

Interesting that your locking in 5 mids at this early stage - none of the mid-pricers tempting you?

Danger is probably not locked for me at this stage, but the other four are close to locked.

I'm likely to go five deep in the mids because I think there are appealing mid pricers on other lines (eg Doc, Smith), and outside of Gawn and Grundy and the mids, the premiums I like are generally somewhat discounted/below top price (eg Heeney, Dusty, Sicily and maybe Laird).

My initial plan was to avoid mid pricers, but I think Doc is a gimme at his price, and I think Smith is not far behind. Looking at Steven's numbers is making me rethink leaving him out as well.

 

[Grundogging]

Danger is probably not locked for me at this stage, but the other four are close to locked.

I'm likely to go five deep in the mids because I think there are appealing mid pricers on other lines (eg Doc, Smith), and outside of Gawn and Grundy and the mids, the premiums I like are generally somewhat discounted/below top price (eg Heeney, Dusty, Sicily and maybe Laird).

My initial plan was to avoid mid pricers, but I think Doc is a gimme at his price, and I think Smith is not far behind. Looking at Steven's numbers is making me rethink leaving him out as well.

Sorry I should have been a bit clearer - I meant mid-pricers at all positions but you mentioned some of those in other positions anyway.

I've got 4 premo mids atm and not a lot of change left even without starting Grawndy.

 

[pizza safety]

Judging from what I read in the Melbourne BF forums, the Demons had massive issues with the ball use out of the middle and Brayshaw was a big part of that problem they think, so I don't know how Melbourne bringing in 2 wingers (not even sure that's Tomlinson's go) with average ball use fixes that problem?

Basically, unless you know how their midfield is going to function and who that exactly benefits I would be avoiding them all with the exception of Oliver and Gawn.

I reckon Brayshaw is probably =3rd for an inside midfield gig along with Harmes and he still has the potential to go to another level but after last season and all the potential 110+ mids we need to get into our team he'd be very very risky. He is a worse user of the ball than Harmes though so it might make sense for him to play more as a tough half-forward.