Position Forward Discussion

[Blades]

As you said in a previous post Hondo, the forward line is a shifting space with breakout candidates and past stars. Ziebell's score last year is unlikely to cut it this year.

I mainly agree with your point about breakout candidates.. But if ziebell plays 22 games and matches the 96 points he averaged from round 6 last year (when he appeared to move from the forward line to a more midfield role) he is certainly a bankable prospect

 

[donnybuang]

Refreshing and daunting to be asked for my opinion as I thoroughly enjoy placing/researching the above as a starting point for those interested to dig further.

To be honest I hadn’t considered/had an in-depth look at Petracca until you mentioned (eventually would have in the coming days/weeks).

Numerous encouraging signs as listed above and from my quick glance CPR% and possible improvement in disposals and tackles avg if he receives sufficient midfield minutes. Quite a nuisance with the lack of available free stats issued by AFL, Champion Data,etc in comparison to other professional sports (eg NBA, NFL) regarding time spent in mid or fwd, etc (Ask Prospectus owners whether it’s listed).

Downside is if he stays around his typical scoring range of high 70’s to low 80’s but with his contested style and being a likely recipient of extended midfield minutes then it should bode well for pushing his avg from anywhere to the high 80’s to the 90’s or even low 100’s thus potentially alleviating that concern. Not a noted high possession getter nor tackler but only needs roughly 22-24 and 4.5 to 5 range to likely reach the 90’s assuming he maintains his high CPR% which is another enticing factor. Also has amassed a large amount of games between the 70-95 SC range and the next step is to turn those into 90-115 whilst limiting his scores under 70.

Waiting on his performance in the 2nd game which will hopefully coincide with Brayshaw’s return to get a better grasp of the situation and the potential pecking order for CBA’s/midfield minutes. I’ve displayed a tendency in most of my iterations to favour the mid-priced forwards and dependent on Petracca’s upcoming performance in conjunction with the reports from Melbourne supporters,etc, he potentially could pip A Brayshaw/T Lynch for the F1 spot.

From the start of his career, his R50 stats decline, so no indication of being a midfielder there. His CP and total possession count are pretty steady. So, if your taking him, you're just assuming this year is the year they shove him in the guts.

 

[Herbie66]

Leading Aggregates for Forwards 2020 based on last season

Walters 2217
Heeney 2069
Ablett 2009 / 21
Martin, D 2000 / 20
Ziebell 1999

Hawkins 1884
Darling 1859
Cameron, J 1856 / 20
MacPherson 1798 and the whole of Victoria ask who !!!
Dalhaus 1788 /21

Petracca 1788
Whitfield 1780 /16
Membrey 1768
Cameron, C 1755
Brown, B 1750

interesting 5 KPF in the Top 15

 

[Herbie66]

Petracaa Average Against Time for the first 12 rounds

61, 77 , 109 , 85, 84
68 , 86 , 71, 80 , 84
57, 81

$ 395,381.00 at his bye

obviously can't take into account increased fitness level and the possibility of more mid time

Source; TooSerious

 

[armesy]

I'm not sure that Petracca would be the first pick for those guys to start on. I think they're more likely going to go to Oliver.

Agreed, but i think they would swap if he was having anywhere near the effect he was on the weekend.

 

[armesy]

With Masten out of the team that lost to the cats in the final and Kelly in, Hutchings spot potentially at risk. He's not skillful enough to play HF and Eagles have a lot of developing small backmen. So if Brander performs over the Marsh cup rotating fwd/wing, Hutchings could be out. With Nicnat, Shuey, Yeo, Kelly I hope we take teams on h2h rather than tagging. Sheed and Redden I would assume are safe. Interesting viewing tomorrow night !

Still valid points re: trac either way. Just updating on Hutchings.

Wouldn't supercoaches around the country breathe a lot easier!!!

 

[armesy]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232782769404514304

One of the absolute best pieces of information i have gained from this forum after lurking for years was Rowsus's idea of the PIT60.
Yes Ziebell would of been 5th highest for the year if you only count his points. But that assumes you scored a 0 for every single game the other players missed. That is just not going to happen.

 

[Herbie66]

One of the absolute best pieces of information i have gained from this forum after lurking for years was Rowsus's idea of the PIT60.
Yes Ziebell would of been 5th highest for the year if you only count his points. But that assumes you scored a 0 for every single game the other players missed. That is just not going to happen.

Confused by this when you look at the table I posted of the Top 15 based on last season's points/this season's position , using a PIT of 60 (not sure too many bench forwards averaged 60) , only Whitfield would have gone past him so he would move down to 6th.

 

[armesy]

Thats a great point mate. I was speaking anecdotally. You have actually looked at the numbers. The other issue i can see with the tweet about Ziebell is that he would of only been the 5th highest points scorer based on guys who are forward eligible in 2020. In 2019 we also had Kelly, Billings, Boak, Dunkley, Danger who would push Ziebell down lower. GAJ and Dusty would come out.

 

[Dimmawit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232782769404514304

counter balance to this point - ie that there are lots of options up fwd that could average 95 - I think it needs to be considered that there might only be 3-4 that could go 105+. It won't quite be the same impact of missing out on Gawndy versus the 3rd best ruck scorer but my take is that the winner of SC this year will nail the top fwds and ride the season out with guys in there scoring that 105+ level. Obviously if you think whit and martin arent those guys don't start but I reckon its a huge risk taking a guy like Mcpherson. He might end up top 10 fwd but at the same time 15 pts behind the top.

 

[Dimmawit]

That's a bit misleading in that it combines total points and averages in one conclusion. By using total points you filter out Whitfield who, because of the 6 games he missed, only accumulated 1,780 points. However he averaged 111.3 over the games he did play.

That said, Whitfield is an outlier at the top of the averages. If you sort by 2019 averages only then JZ ranks no 8. Whitfield (16 games), Greene (16 games) and Cameron (20 games) push him down to 8th on average.

It's also worth noting that on last year's available FWDs, 90.9 is a way off Dunks, Boak, Danger and Kelly. It only looks better (8th best average) when judged against the 2020 FWDs some of whom with more mid opportunities could make 90.9 rank lower in the end than 5th. I expect JZ was more like the 12-15th best averaging FWD last year?

I feel if my F6 only got 90 that would be a slight fail so I don't totally agree with the article's conclusion.

oops got in before i read the thread I agree Hondo!

 

[rohan-97]

Im surprised Tom Lynch is only in 7% of teams. I get the whole no key fwd rule but at 388k, defs worth a punt in a shallow pool of fwd prems

 

[Manikato1]

counter balance to this point - ie that there are lots of options up fwd that could average 95 - I think it needs to be considered that there might only be 3-4 that could go 105+. It won't quite be the same impact of missing out on Gawndy versus the 3rd best ruck scorer but my take is that the winner of SC this year will nail the top fwds and ride the season out with guys in there scoring that 105+ level. Obviously if you think whit and martin arent those guys don't start but I reckon its a huge risk taking a guy like Mcpherson. He might end up top 10 fwd but at the same time 15 pts behind the top.

Okay so the query from me is the strategy on that. Do you 1) Have one of two key fwds and the rest midpricers with maybe one rookie (which will impact most likely your def structure) or do you 2) have one or two key fwds then go cheap (Hill, Bonar) and rookies and wait till the top fwds appear? Option 1 probably makes it easier to transition to the rising fwds as they appear (unless you pick them from the start!) but it might cost you down back in the meantime. Option 2 is tricky because will you have enough cash to upgrade rookies etc when those must have fwds appear.

I have struggled up front and so far have taken the sit on the fenced option with 2 key, 1 mid pricer and 3 rookies but not sure that will cut it in the end.

 

[Herbie66]

I think I have worked out the starting forward formula ?

3 x Premiums
2 x Midpricers
Bonar & Hill
3 Rookies

now just need to work out which players and how it all fits with the rest of my team

 

[frosty1]

I've gone Whitfield, 3x low mid price (incl ruck backup), 1 fallen mid price and 3 rookies

It is very very bad. When I look across my team I need 1 on field fix in the mids (as a starting point), and am happy enough with defence and ruck from a starting point of view. But the forwards, I need about 500k more to make it something workable. Smith is currently F2, and even in a mid priced heavy forward line, which I'm ok with, I still need a couple at 420k vs 320k.

 

[frosty1]

I think I have worked out the starting forward formula ?

3 x Premiums
2 x Midpricers
Bonar & Hill
3 Rookies

now just need to work out which players and how it all fits with the rest of my team

That seems to be too many? Who gets cut?

 

[Spots]

That seems to be too many? Who gets cut?

I'm still not sold on Bonar at his elevated price...

 

[Dimmawit]

Okay so the query from me is the strategy on that. Do you 1) Have one of two key fwds and the rest midpricers with maybe one rookie (which will impact most likely your def structure) or do you 2) have one or two key fwds then go cheap (Hill, Bonar) and rookies and wait till the top fwds appear? Option 1 probably makes it easier to transition to the rising fwds as they appear (unless you pick them from the start!) but it might cost you down back in the meantime. Option 2 is tricky because will you have enough cash to upgrade rookies etc when those must have fwds appear.

I have struggled up front and so far have taken the sit on the fenced option with 2 key, 1 mid pricer and 3 rookies but not sure that will cut it in the end.

Im trying to push Hill out to F6 atm but suspect a rookie will jump up and demand selection which will end with Hill at F5

 

[Herbie66]

That seems to be too many? Who gets cut?

Don't have to start them all forward though from the beginning.

 

[Dimmawit]

@Ben's Beasts what was the logic for the early Trac choice -> solely increased mid-time? what sort of disposal count are we expecting him to jump to (perhaps there's a better way to describe the 'cause' of a points jump). I dunno I'm not sold yet - to be clear not your job to sell me on him either - I'm just a bit surprised by the massive jump in ownership here.

Was he a high possession winner as a junior? (anyone please jump in here)

I'm really interested to hear what people's expectations are - are you picking him to go 100+ (that sounds like an AA year to me from a player like him)