Understand what you are saying about more choices in other lines and agree on that point, but there is little value in trying to predict the future about who and how you trade certain players in. Gawn may go on a run of 150 scores or he may get injured for 10. All you can do is make a trading plan based on the information available at the time. If that means you don’t get Gawn (or whoever is the best available ruck) until the byes, so be it, hopefully you have nailed your other trades.
Position Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
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Possibly but not definitely. We usually know by rnd 6 or 7 who the best rucks are and how their draw opens up or closes down and starting a cheap R2 gives us a chance to have a look at this. It's hard to predict a breakout ruck because they are usually stuck in the seconds. Who saw Rowan Marshall or Stef Martin breaking out or Grundy having a second breakout?
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Maybe, but I wouldn't want to be betting against Gawn for half a season. There's currently a 16 point gap between Grundy/Gawn and the next best ruck and I don't see who is going to step up to close that down. In other positions you can afford to miss out on the top player because the next best is probably <5 points behind. But in the rucks - unless something significant happens - Gawn has to be in your plans. To me it just makes more sense to start him and see what happens rather than the alternative. But it'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.
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If there werent any rookie rucks firming for rd 1 I wouldnt be looking at Naismith as closely as i currently am. Williams, Cameron and Xerri all help to reduce the risk of having him at r2 significantly as you arent left in no mans land if he gets injured within the first month.
On top of this Gawn has had an interupted preseason and faces nic nat first up. Then vs GWS who arguably have the best midfield so who knows how many HOs to advantage he has. Also predicting them to lose their first 2 games so he gets a lower share of 3300. Then proceeds to play Marshall/Ryder who arent too bad around the ground. Rd 5 he vses Witts who if i remember correctly, there were very few rucks that got their season avg against him. After rd 5 his draw opens up significantly, wont have enough funds to go Naismith - Gawn in 1 rookie downgrade by this stage. However if Naismith makes 130k by rd 7-8 with an achievable avg of 85 and Gawn goes 115-120 he will drop to low 600s. Thats basically a swing of 200 - 250k. We will be lucky to get 5 rookies to make that much money for us this year.
On top of this Gawn has had an interupted preseason and faces nic nat first up. Then vs GWS who arguably have the best midfield so who knows how many HOs to advantage he has. Also predicting them to lose their first 2 games so he gets a lower share of 3300. Then proceeds to play Marshall/Ryder who arent too bad around the ground. Rd 5 he vses Witts who if i remember correctly, there were very few rucks that got their season avg against him. After rd 5 his draw opens up significantly, wont have enough funds to go Naismith - Gawn in 1 rookie downgrade by this stage. However if Naismith makes 130k by rd 7-8 with an achievable avg of 85 and Gawn goes 115-120 he will drop to low 600s. Thats basically a swing of 200 - 250k. We will be lucky to get 5 rookies to make that much money for us this year.
Glad you are also joining us on the dark side 
The Gawn slow start is also one of the main factors I’m banking on. Naismith simply wouldnt be as attractive without the prospect of Gawn starting slow due his greatly interrupted preseason. Going further, if Gawn drops 120-140k to 550-570k ish going at 110 ish, Naismith gets to 370k-400k ish, it’s a 200k ish upgrade.
Your standard mid upgrades usually cost around anyway 200k IIRC. Your best rookie gets to 350-400k, mid prem costs 570k ish.
The Gawn slow start is also one of the main factors I’m banking on. Naismith simply wouldnt be as attractive without the prospect of Gawn starting slow due his greatly interrupted preseason. Going further, if Gawn drops 120-140k to 550-570k ish going at 110 ish, Naismith gets to 370k-400k ish, it’s a 200k ish upgrade.
Your standard mid upgrades usually cost around anyway 200k IIRC. Your best rookie gets to 350-400k, mid prem costs 570k ish.
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Should've traded Grundy for all of GCs high draft picks .
Surely he gets a gig up forward with a 10-15% ruck chop out for Grundy based on that? I'd love to start Grundy, Naismith, Xerri with Cameron F7 but if somehow all the rookie rucks get named then...
Caution -> wind: Grundy, Comben, Cameron (E) with Xerri and Brander forward and Williams in D for max swappability. Rookie problems solved!
.Surely he gets a gig up forward with a 10-15% ruck chop out for Grundy based on that? I'd love to start Grundy, Naismith, Xerri with Cameron F7 but if somehow all the rookie rucks get named then...
Caution -> wind: Grundy, Comben, Cameron (E) with Xerri and Brander forward and Williams in D for max swappability. Rookie problems solved!
Should've traded Grundy for all of GCs high draft picks .
Surely he gets a gig up forward with a 10-15% ruck chop out for Grundy based on that? I'd love to start Grundy, Naismith, Xerri with Cameron F7 but if somehow all the rookie rucks get named then...
Caution -> wind: Grundy, Comben, Cameron (E) with Xerri and Brander forward and Williams in D for max swappability. Rookie problems solved!
.Surely he gets a gig up forward with a 10-15% ruck chop out for Grundy based on that? I'd love to start Grundy, Naismith, Xerri with Cameron F7 but if somehow all the rookie rucks get named then...
Caution -> wind: Grundy, Comben, Cameron (E) with Xerri and Brander forward and Williams in D for max swappability. Rookie problems solved!
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Lot's of potential rookie ruck options which is going to complicate some thoughts going into round 1. Been following this convo closely and can see both sides, I'll put my hand up and say that I am stubborn when it comes to parting ways with Grundy and Gawn combo but I am waivering.
Seeing all the rookie ruck potential options like Williams, Xerri, Cameron, Sweet getting pre-season games and looking okay does make a Grundy Naismith combo intriguing. For me it would be whether something like a Danger/Naismith combo nets more points than a Gawn/Serong combo early in the season. the other thing to think about is that one of the risks with starting Naismith is around the limited upgrade target you now have, let's face it, it's likely to be Gawn and only Gawn. Now the problem like a few have said that if Gawn doesn't drop and Naismith averages sub 80ppg it leaves a big hole and several trades to get to Gawn and can't be done quickly. Going the other way, you have a number of midfield options to potentially go to and a good chance out of say 4 or 5 identified players being at a price point to trade in.
Until you've been in that space it's hard to explain, but that feeling you have chasing rucks trying to find a way out ruins a season in the space of a few weeks, killed me a couple of years ago anyway.
I've looked at a structure with Naismith, Xerri R3, Cameron F8 and Williams D8 which does give plenty of ruck cover options but it's a week to week prospect at best this cover. Some might also look at a Ceglar type to further lessen any potential blow, not sure I can stomach that.
So good to have options finally on the ruck line, seems a few years since we've had this luxury at rookie prices.
Seeing all the rookie ruck potential options like Williams, Xerri, Cameron, Sweet getting pre-season games and looking okay does make a Grundy Naismith combo intriguing. For me it would be whether something like a Danger/Naismith combo nets more points than a Gawn/Serong combo early in the season. the other thing to think about is that one of the risks with starting Naismith is around the limited upgrade target you now have, let's face it, it's likely to be Gawn and only Gawn. Now the problem like a few have said that if Gawn doesn't drop and Naismith averages sub 80ppg it leaves a big hole and several trades to get to Gawn and can't be done quickly. Going the other way, you have a number of midfield options to potentially go to and a good chance out of say 4 or 5 identified players being at a price point to trade in.
Until you've been in that space it's hard to explain, but that feeling you have chasing rucks trying to find a way out ruins a season in the space of a few weeks, killed me a couple of years ago anyway.
I've looked at a structure with Naismith, Xerri R3, Cameron F8 and Williams D8 which does give plenty of ruck cover options but it's a week to week prospect at best this cover. Some might also look at a Ceglar type to further lessen any potential blow, not sure I can stomach that.
So good to have options finally on the ruck line, seems a few years since we've had this luxury at rookie prices.
I've started giving serious consideration to Cameron as R3. Since Grundy is locked as my R1 I'm thinking that if Grundy has a 1/2 week injury if Cameron was to come in as his replacement for the Pies then my SC team is covered as well and I don't have to think about shuffling the team or awkward trading to cover a donut. The other benefit for when Cameron is not in the team it means it is an easy swap for when Grundy is my C option depending on the VC score.
I think the opposite is true. If he had a further discount and was sub-200k he would be one of the first-picked rookies, the above discussion would be unnecessary and everyone's teams would be more ****genous. I agree it can sometimes be frustrating that they seem to just make these decisions subjectively but IMO they usually get it right.
EDIT that's a funny one for the swear-detector to pick up. i meant everyone's teams would be more same-same.
EDIT that's a funny one for the swear-detector to pick up. i meant everyone's teams would be more same-same.