Position Ruck Discussion

[stephen]

$ 450 k only directly gets you a rookie mid to a premium mid though who may score 10-15 points less than Gawn , a premium forward/defender will get you a 95-100 point player.

I think fair to say that if you predict Gawn to outscore the 630k gun mids by 10-15 then you should definitely be sticking with him.

Part of picking Naismith has to be a prediction that Gawn falls off a bit, at least for first half of the season.

 

[Hondo]

$ 450 k only directly gets you a rookie mid to a premium mid though who may score 10-15 points less than Gawn , a premium forward/defender will get you a 95-100 point player.

I used the example before of Danger/Naismith v Serong/Gawn

115/85 v 125/60 ... insert your own estimates whether you think it’s really 15 points ahead.

Importantly you get the better cash cow. Plus the mid rookies look so thin relying on 3 first year expensive mid rookies.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

$ 450 k only directly gets you a rookie mid to a premium mid though who may score 10-15 points less than Gawn , a premium forward/defender will get you a 95-100 point player.

450K could turn Rankine & King into a combo of Smith/Steven/Lynch/Brayshaw/Acres/Wingard if you can pull another 50k or so from somewhere.

I think even the failed picks of this lot net you 80 ppg maybe make you 50k and use as a stepping stone, as long as they are playing.

If you can find some 60-65+ scoring rookies up forward, it's probably not worth it but if as i suspect some of these guys throw out 40's or get dropped it's well worth it imo

 

[NT.Thunder]

Not at all - Naismith looks like he'll ruck no 1 for sure. To be clear I will be watching Naismith like a hawk. I'm not at all an advocate of the set and forget religion. In 2013 I started Blicavs as a rookie at R2 and things went pretty well for me. I think successful mid price ruck picks are just about the biggest starting team advantage you can lock in if you get right.

To me Witts was a safer, cheaper and more obvious pick to succeed than Naismith is now (disclaimer I didnt pick Witts and god I was dirty about it)

Seriously - did no one even pick up on that?

In 2013 I went pretty well, you ****en won it!

 

[Hondo]

Not at all - Naismith looks like he'll ruck no 1 for sure. To be clear I will be watching Naismith like a hawk. I'm not at all an advocate of the set and forget religion. In 2013 I started Blicavs as a rookie at R2 and things went pretty well for me. I think successful mid price ruck picks are just about the biggest starting team advantage you can lock in if you get right.

To me Witts was a safer, cheaper and more obvious pick to succeed than Naismith is now (disclaimer I didnt pick Witts and god I was dirty about it)

like I’ve mentioned before I remember that Witts discussion at the time because I selected him and was arguing for the choice. The no side was telling me how ordinary a player he was and he’d never gone above 70 or so etc etc.
I think hindsight has made him seem safer than he was seen at the time.
Not bragging here because I get plenty of things wrong but Witts was a win.

 

[Herbie66]

I think fair to say that if you predict Gawn to outscore the 630k gun mids by 10-15 then you should definitely be sticking with him.

Part of picking Naismith has to be a prediction that Gawn falls off a bit, at least for first half of the season.

Hopefully Gawn comes out firing on all cylinders in Tassie then.

I am quietly confident my 5 starting mids will match/outscore Gawn from the beginning.

2 others I was looking at I can get cheaper (hopefully) then decide on my 8th mid (Touchwood).

The Rucks were supposed to be the easy part this season ? , why is it now getting so confusing.

 

[Professor]

I think if Gawn is fit and named you pick him. He's captain this year, so he has to set the example, just like Bont, he could go beast mode and take his game to another level.

 

[Dimmawit]

Witts was an enormous win - that much was clear after round 1.
Hindsight is wonderful and no doubts Witts' success as a player since makes impartial discussion on the choice then a bit harder but too be fair Witts was also a super highly rated junior, had played more games than Naismith has now and also started the year at a cheaper price + was going to a team where he was undisputed no 1. zero chance he didnt ruck out the games. Naismith, given a poor run, could be dropped.

Anyway, Im getting too deep into the no camp here. All Im saying is that all things on balance I think Witts was an easier choice.

If Naismith plays out 85% TOG next game and scores 80+ then all things said and done I reckon you pick him

 

[Manikato1]

But I see it as the same in the mids. Yes there’s more choice but sometimes you need to get the expensive choice because he’s flying rather than compromise and hope. We all probably make 1-2 upgrades like this each season. The big $300k splurge to lock in the mid you need. So if skipping Gawn takes out one future mid upgrade then your splurge trade is in the rucks.

The way I see it I could take a compromised mid choice and only be 5-7 points off the guy I want who is flying. Your second or third string ruck could be 15 or 20 points off Gawn.

 

[Herbie66]

450K could turn Rankine & King into a combo of Smith/Steven/Lynch/Brayshaw/Acres/Wingard if you can pull another 50k or so from somewhere.

I think even the failed picks of this lot net you 80 ppg maybe make you 50k and use as a stepping stone, as long as they are playing.

Already have Smith & Lynch & Rankine & King on my bench , mmm could end up with 2+4 starting forward line I guess in this case and then end up having 5 midpricers to upgrade ?......bloody hell digging a bigger hole

maybe

 

[NT.Thunder]

Hopefully Gawn comes out firing on all cylinders in Tassie then.

I am quietly confident my 5 starting mids will match/outscore Gawn from the beginning.

2 others I was looking at I can get cheaper (hopefully) then decide on my 8th mid (Touchwood).

The Rucks were supposed to be the easy part this season ? , why is it now getting so confusing.

That's still only half the battle, from there you need to make sure your R2 stays in the side and/or doesn't get injured and that any of your back-up R options form R3 to DPP options are playing and scoring well. The last few points are where I'm having some trouble building confidence around starting Naismith.

In the last 2 years only one midfielder has averaged more than Gawn and that Titch. Yes Gawn has had an interupted pre-season to some extent but I don't think it's that serious that won't see him put out decent number for the first few rounds.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Already have Smith & Lynch & Rankine & King on my bench , mmm could end up with 2+4 starting forward line I guess in this case and then end up having 5 midpricers to upgrade ?......bloody hell digging a bigger hole

maybe

You would be counting on at least 2 of your 4 being keepers, if 4 all needed an upgrade its a dead loss no two ways about it.

 

[Hondo]

The way I see it I could take a compromised mid choice and only be 5-7 points off the guy I want who is flying. Your second or third string ruck could be 15 or 20 points off Gawn.

Yes but I’m not compromising I’m going for Gawn.

Hypothetically

Serong $250k to $550k compromise mid
V
Naismith $350k to $650k Gawn

 

[OnTopBar]

Right now I have Naismith at R2, Cameron at F7 and Comben at R3. Ceglar is in for insurance on Naismith but if Cameron looks like getting a go then I might not have Ceglar. Patton in Ceglars place is also an option.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Right now I have Naismith at R2, Cameron at F7 and Comben at R3. Ceglar is in for insurance on Naismith but if Cameron looks like getting a go then I might not have Ceglar. Patton in Ceglars place is also an option.

But you could be compounding the problem there also, for me there are still question marks surrounding Ceglar.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

I don't see it as Gawn vs a Premo mid, I think that's comparing apples with apples.

I see it as Gawn vs getting your lowest scoring rookies off field by way of value up forward.

I think if all you are going to do with the Gawn money is put it all directly into one other premo mid, you just stick with Gawn.

 

[Dimmawit]

That's still only half the battle, from there you need to make sure your R2 stays in the side and/or doesn't get injured and that any of your back-up R options form R3 to DPP options are playing and scoring well. The last few points are where I'm having some trouble building confidence around starting Naismith.

In the last 2 years only one midfielder has averaged more than Gawn and that Titch. Yes Gawn has had an interupted pre-season to some extent but I don't think it's that serious that won't see him put out decent number for the first few rounds.

Thats a good point too. There weren't the stand out ruck options of a Gawn and Grundy in '17. The choice of who else to take was a different proposition

 

[Herbie66]

That's still only half the battle, from there you need to make sure your R2 stays in the side and/or doesn't get injured and that any of your back-up R options form R3 to DPP options are playing and scoring well. The last few points are where I'm having some trouble building confidence around starting Naismith.

In the last 2 years only one midfielder has averaged more than Gawn and that Titch. Yes Gawn has had an interupted pre-season to some extent but I don't think it's that serious that won't see him put out decent number for the first few rounds.

Gawn is still my R2

If he doesn't look right , I will go Goldy or ROB and then slingshot through the byes.

If Cameron & Xerri (Williams) are named Round 1 I see it as a bonus

Have the 3 woof woofs , Cripps & Jelly.

Rowell M6
Anderson/Ash/Caldwell/Stephens M7
Pickett M8

At this stage Serong & Green on the bench with McInerney/Budarick

or whoever else is named

Whitfield forward

 

[mpollock]

Lot's of potential rookie ruck options which is going to complicate some thoughts going into round 1. Been following this convo closely and can see both sides, I'll put my hand up and say that I am stubborn when it comes to parting ways with Grundy and Gawn combo but I am waivering.

Seeing all the rookie ruck potential options like Williams, Xerri, Cameron, Sweet getting pre-season games and looking okay does make a Grundy Naismith combo intriguing. For me it would be whether something like a Danger/Naismith combo nets more points than a Gawn/Serong combo early in the season. the other thing to think about is that one of the risks with starting Naismith is around the limited upgrade target you now have, let's face it, it's likely to be Gawn and only Gawn. Now the problem like a few have said that if Gawn doesn't drop and Naismith averages sub 80ppg it leaves a big hole and several trades to get to Gawn and can't be done quickly. Going the other way, you have a number of midfield options to potentially go to and a good chance out of say 4 or 5 identified players being at a price point to trade in.

Until you've been in that space it's hard to explain, but that feeling you have chasing rucks trying to find a way out ruins a season in the space of a few weeks, killed me a couple of years ago anyway.

I've looked at a structure with Naismith, Xerri R3, Cameron F8 and Williams D8 which does give plenty of ruck cover options but it's a week to week prospect at best this cover. Some might also look at a Ceglar type to further lessen any potential blow, not sure I can stomach that.

So good to have options finally on the ruck line, seems a few years since we've had this luxury at rookie prices.

Ceglar averaged about 95 the last three games with the McEvoy experiment down back. All preseason McEvoy has trained back basically. And lined up there in Marsh Rd1 before getting injured very early.

Ceglar managed 80 from 66 minutes against the saints. And was rested for their second game against the saints. At 417k and duel position this is very tempting.

If it fails not much of a leap to NicNat / Martin who may work ... can also go down to Jacobs / Richmond ruck. Even Naismith. If any of these work and Ceglar doesn’t thats a fairly easy fix (not that you would want to waste the trade).

Problem with Naismith is Sinclair is fit and played. At least with Ceglar better signs he will be the number 1 ruck now.

 

[NT.Thunder]

If it fails not much of a leap to NicNat / Martin who may work ... can also go down to Jacobs / Richmond ruck. Even Naismith. If any of these work and Ceglar doesn’t thats a fairly easy fix (not that you would want to waste the trade).

Problem with Naismith is Sinclair is fit and played. At least with Ceglar better signs he will be the number 1 ruck now.

This is my problem - I've been on that merry go round of rucks and it's an aweful feeling week in week out trying to get off.