Position Ruck Discussion

[Juzzo]

Any you guys actually work 9-5?. I get home and have to wade through a million posts on Gawn v Naismith.

 

[jobeywatto]

I think we need to look past the career best averages, especially with the low games count, otherwise we'd never pick a mid priced player. It whether you think the opportunity is there to improve and whether that is worth the risk.

With most midpricers we're either picking them because a positional/opportunity change may improve their scoring, or they have a history of scoring at a decent level but have a reduced price due to injury. Naismith doesn't really have either of those going for him. You're relying on natural progression which is always fraught with danger. He is a bit underpriced due to missing 2 years. If he was closer to 200k I think he'd be a much more enticing pick, but at 250k you really need him to do well. Not sure I can take the risk.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Witts did ok for HTAs with arguably a worse midfield. (As an aside, I think the scoring for rucks is a little broken and may over inflate their worth.)

I think we need to look past the career best averages, especially with the low games count, otherwise we'd never pick a mid priced player. It whether you think the opportunity is there to improve and whether that is worth the risk.

I wonder whether CD share this view any may take steps to correct it (downwards) this season? Pure speculation only on my part

 

[Manikato1]

Any you guys actually work 9-5?. I get home and have to wade through a million posts on Gawn v Naismith.

Long weekend in Perth

 

[NT.Thunder]

Any you guys actually work 9-5?. I get home and have to wade through a million posts on Gawn v Naismith.

Been working from home for the last 10 years or so, February & March are typically unproductive months, still get through it all, just a longer grind.

 

[Kidult]

Preuss is also out for the first part of the season.

weideman,t.mac,jackson, m. brown could take the fwd stoppages away and gawn could hobble around with strapped knee. But that is all ifs

 

[Kidult]

Right now I have Naismith at R2, Cameron at F7 and Comben at R3. Ceglar is in for insurance on Naismith but if Cameron looks like getting a go then I might not have Ceglar. Patton in Ceglars place is also an option.

i like the ceglar idea if he got injured it would force mcevoy back to ruck and hopefully he is 300k by then =)

 

[Hondo]

All eyes on Naismith next game by the sounds

 

[NT.Thunder]

weideman,t.mac,jackson, m. brown could take the fwd stoppages away and gawn could hobble around with strapped knee. But that is all ifs

I think people are starting to talk themselves into Gawn not being available or ready to hit round 1 firing and will get a rude shock in a couple of weeks.

What we know:

Left medial ligament strain 31st Jan 2020 - nearly 5 weeks ago and by round 1 will be a tad over 7 weeks.
Players can be back in 3-4 weeks, maybe a little more.
Finished all of the main pre-season sessions bar one, fitness I don't think will be a big issue
Was his left knee and not the right which he's previously had two ACL's
Darren Burgess is the strength and conditioning coach, he knows what he's doing and would've had Gawns conditioning well and truly on track.
Was back running in early February and is pencilled in to possibly play the next Marsh game, we'll see but I wouldn't be surprised if he does or concerned if he doesnt.
The guy has been appointed Captain, pretty sure he'll be leading Melbourne from the front come round 1.

I'm loving all the options being touted and that the rucks are throwing arond some variety, but I would be cautious about thinking Gawn will be anything but back to his best over the first few rounds.

Plenty of people will be nervous no doubt with Melbourne playing the last game of round 1, can't wait for the late out rumours to start circulating.

 

[THCLT]

Was back running in early February and is pencilled in to possibly play the next Marsh game, we'll see but I wouldn't be surprised if he does or concerned if he doesnt.

I would actually prefers that he rest up for another couple of weeks, spending his time instead to read up on the Rucks thread here on SCS to prepare himself for R1, that should provide him with sufficient motivation.

If anything, him missing this week will probably mean that this thread gets the most views leading up to R1 which is also a positive.

 

[jarrad_]

its more so he's start to the season which is probably putting people off starting Gawn

 

[Kidult]

I think people are starting to talk themselves into Gawn not being available or ready to hit round 1 firing and will get a rude shock in a couple of weeks.

What we know:

Left medial ligament strain 31st Jan 2020 - nearly 5 weeks ago and by round 1 will be a tad over 7 weeks.
Players can be back in 3-4 weeks, maybe a little more.
Finished all of the main pre-season sessions bar one, fitness I don't think will be a big issue
Was his left knee and not the right which he's previously had two ACL's
Darren Burgess is the strength and conditioning coach, he knows what he's doing and would've had Gawns conditioning well and truly on track.
Was back running in early February and is pencilled in to possibly play the next Marsh game, we'll see but I wouldn't be surprised if he does or concerned if he doesnt.
The guy has been appointed Captain, pretty sure he'll be leading Melbourne from the front come round 1.

I'm loving all the options being touted and that the rucks are throwing arond some variety, but I would be cautious about thinking Gawn will be anything but back to his best over the first few rounds.

Plenty of people will be nervous no doubt with Melbourne playing the last game of round 1, can't wait for the late out rumours to start circulating.

yeh i just considered pick and forgettin goldstein only has to vs grundy once rd10 and gawn in rd23

 

[NT.Thunder]

I would actually prefers that he rest up for another couple of weeks, spending his time instead to read up on the Rucks thread here on SCS to prepare himself for R1, that should provide him with sufficient motivation.

If anything, him missing this week will probably mean that this thread gets the most views leading up to R1 which is also a positive.

The rucks haven't been this exciting for a few years and will mean that the variety of teams and structures will be much larger than previous seasons.

 

[THCLT]

The rucks haven't been this exciting for a few years and will mean that the variety of teams and structures will be much larger than previous seasons.

Just give me a playing R3 and I'm happy...

 

[NT.Thunder]

Just give me a playing R3 and I'm happy...

Yeah I hear you, I've probably gone 3 or 4 years without ruck coverage, usually cheapest jabroni sits there all year taking his turn at Captain each week.

 

[IDIG]

Any you guys actually work 9-5?. I get home and have to wade through a million posts on Gawn v Naismith.

A million posts and still not any clearer

Still a long way out but barring an ultra impressive performance from Gawn in Marsh 2 (expecting low TOG) or a very poor showing from Naismith, I’ll be running with Naismith myself. I know the ruck merry-go-round can be near soul destroying but prefer the amount of rookie risk it removes elsewhere.

 

[Bermi]

Didn't realise Cameron was a R/F (thought he was R only). This makes a cheap R2 (Naismith or Cameron/Xerri) very possible!

Buckley recently said Cameron and Mason Cox will battle it out for the secondary spot in the side. Maybe Marsh 2 might be an indicator who starts in Rd1.

 

[Bermi]

Anyone got a good reason why Naismith can't be a good pick at his price?

Gawn and Grundy have proven to be a successful starting Rucks 1 & 2, even though Gawn may have a slow start, still both may end up being the 2 top Ruck scorers for the year.
Naismith worries me as being an injury prone player, too risky for me.

Sam Naismith

Friday, 30 September 2016
………..Despite suffering serious groin and hand injuries, and a bout of glandular fever early in his career, Naismith always believed he could make the senior team...……...
Sarah Black for AFL.com.au

Wednesday, 7 March 2018
Sam Naismith will miss the entire 2018 season after suffered an ACL injury which will require a knee reconstruction.
"Sam was involved in a fairly routine training drill when his knee twisted, causing a rupture of his anterior cruciate ligament," Swans football manager Tom Harley said...……..
Adam Curley for AFL.com.au

Thursday, 14 February 2019
Swans coach John Longmire says Sam Naismith ……..."He had the knee reconstruction last year and he had a minor cleanout just before Christmas ……….
Nick Bowen for AFL.com.au


Friday, 22 March 2019
Sam Naismith's long wait to return to the field is likely to be delayed again after undergoing a knee arthroscopy.
Marc McGowan for AFL.com.au

 

[Bomber18]

Gee this thread blew up today but Naismith still only has a 2.1% ownership so it's still a huge POD play.

I received my copy of the Prospectus today and found some interesting ruck stats.

In 2019, Sinclair had a Hit Out Win (HOW) % of only 37% (AFL ruck average is 44.8%) and a Hit Out to Advantage (HOTA) % of only 7.5 (AFL ruck average is 12.9%). Naismiths' career averages are 44.6% HOW% and 13.5% HOTA% (average rating for both).

For some comparison points in 2019:
Goldstein went 47.4% HOW% and 16.2% HOTA%
Bellchambers went 42.1% HOW% and 15.5% HOTA%
Nankervis went 43.9% HOW% and 11.3% HOTA%
Reily O'Brien went 43.5% HOW% and 11.2% HOTA%
Stef Martin went 43.2% HOW% and 12.4% HOTA%
Grundy went 53.9% HOW% and 15.5% HOTA%
Gawn went 57.9% HOW% and 20% HOTA%

Basically, Naismith's most important metrics as a ruck are "average" but still better than guys like ROB, Martin and Nankervis. Better HOW% than TBC but worse HOTA%. Most importantly, Naismith's HOW% and HOTA% are far better than Sinclair's!

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I wonder whether CD share this view any may take steps to correct it (downwards) this season? Pure speculation only on my part

did they correct it a few years back when they switched to HTA and sharking. there was all these articles on who would go down the least/most. Those articles really dated well.......................