Discussion Rookie Discussion

[Bomber18]

Few thoughts on rookies after looking at the Marsh CBA spreadsheet

• Brander didn't play wing in the final qtr when Hamish Brayshaw got a run (and Sheed got pushed out of the CBs). Probably why Brander faded so hard late. Will be interesting to see if he gets the role for the full game in Marsh 2
• B Williams only had that "backup ruck to NN" role for 1 out of the 4 quarters. Vardy had it for two and NN was rested in the last. Perhaps Vardy is still the preferred backup option.
• McInerney was consistently used in the wing role with most "wing attendances", quite promising but will still need to see what happens when Lloyd and Mills return and also if Dawson takes up that spot. Lewis Taylor and D Stephens were the others that consistently played on the wing.
• Bewley took the other wing role at Freo with no CBAs either. Wing could be a lucrative role at Freo this year with their more high possession style of play.
• T Brown got the wing role at the Pies topping the Wing Attendances (Daicos, Mayne and WHE the other main wingers). I presume Sidebottom usually plays wing at the Pies.
• Ash got no wing time or CBAs (so I presume he played pure HB). A.Kennedy and H.Perryman seem to be the preferred wingers at GWS. Will be interesting to see what happens when Whitfield and Haynes return (and also when Williams returns in R1-3).
• B.Ham (217k M/F) got a pure wing role for the bombers. I don't think it'll be that good a role at Essendon as I think we'll try copy the Richmond pressure style of play rather than retain possession.

 

[OnTopBar]

I am working with Rowell , Anderson , Caldwell , Serong , Green & Pickett at the moment.

Honestly can't see the point making teams with $ 117k mids who have less chance than me in playing Round 1 , just gives a "false" picture to your onfield team and will create all sorts of problems come Round 1.

Might put Bonar & Hill back at F4/F5.

I'm running with 6 on field rookies, 5 if you don't count Naismith, so I'm a bit worried about cash generation and have loaded up on the bench rookies to compensate, I'll leave a lot of points on the bench but I'm hoping that the JS and cash make up for it, plus pretty handy for the byes if those rookies are still around. Currently have Bonar, Ash and Serong on the Mid bench with Rowell, Greene and Pickett on field, so Anderson with his JS is fully on the radar.

 

[Herbie66]

I'm running with 6 on field rookies, 5 if you don't count Naismith, so I'm a bit worried about cash generation and have loaded up on the bench rookies to compensate, I'll leave a lot of points on the bench but I'm hoping that the JS and cash make up for it, plus pretty handy for the byes if those rookies are still around. Currently have Bonar, Ash and Serong on the Mid bench with Rowell, Greene and Pickett on field, so Anderson with his JS is fully on the radar.

Ok that is a interesting strategy , I have 9 onfield at the moment.

Probably makes sense to have some stronger bench rookies if you can afford them and it doesn't expose you too much with compensated mid pricer picks on field

 

[Manikato1]

I will be very interested to se how Fin Maginness goes if he is given a M2 game. Rated highly at the Hawks I believe. Could surprise.

 

[freowho]

Wing wing.
Who's there?
It's on the new spreadsheet.



I'll just see myself out thanks.

 

[OnTopBar]

Ok that is a interesting strategy , I have 9 onfield at the moment.

Probably makes sense to have some stringer bench rookies if you can afford them and it doesn't expose you too much with compensated mid pricer picks on field

Yeah, I'm becoming more comfortable with the side with Houston, Crisp, Doc, Roberton and Hill, with Dusty, Petracca, Ceglar, Lynch and Smith. Have 5 solid premos in mids plus Grundy. There's quite a bit of risk with all of those but it's not something that's hard to fix and TBH I've planned some trades for that.
What I do like is that I only have 3 rookies to concentrate on in Fwd and Def which means I 'should' be able to nail the best ones without having too many duds wasting precious spots and then trying to juggle the whole lot of them.

 

[OnTopBar]

Wing wing.
Who's there?
It's on the new spreadsheet.



I'll just see myself out thanks.

There's something Wong with you.

 

[Beg2Differ]

Year on year comparison of rookies scores (Number 1 pick and below) after first preseason game.

It is a little hard to be objective given we know how all of the names on the left turned out last year.

 

[Herbie66]

Yeah, I'm becoming more comfortable with the side with Houston, Crisp, Doc, Roberton and Hill, with Dusty, Petracca, Ceglar, Lynch and Smith. Have 5 solid premos in mids plus Grundy. There's quite a bit of risk with all of those but it's not something that's hard to fix and TBH I've planned some trades for that.
What I do like is that I only have 3 rookies to concentrate on in Fwd and Def which means I 'should' be able to nail the best ones without having too many duds wasting precious spots and then trying to juggle the whole lot of them.

Just saw your side in the RMT , confused myself by not realising you had Roberton and Hill as well.

I reckon we might have about 8 - 12 viable defender rookies named Round 1 so good luck selecting the right 3 ?

I am still not sure on Houston & Docherty personally , might have a rethink on them and just go Laird & Sicily plus the rookies.

Lynch & Smith will remain in my side , still tossing up F1.

Grundy & Gawn locked

 

[Philzsay]

Just had a real hard look at the likely R1 Rookies and the current perceived drought is real in my opinion.

Some coaches (and I've already heard them loud and clear over the past week) will stick to the mantra that 'Rookies will be named, they always will'. My question/doubt is how many will fit that 'quick cash generation' mould to help us get to full premiums as quickly as possible which has been the key prerequisite for previous winning teams. What I'm alluding to here is how many of those Rookies named for R1 will 1) play that SC friendly role or 2) has the JS to string together 5 or 6 games...? As I see it right now, most of the more desirable Rookies (outside from being pricey) are either currently injured or are playing for a 'contending' team.

I hope that Marsh 2 provide further evidence to squash my current outlook, but as it stands right now, I'm finding it difficult to find 6 Rookies that I would have complete confidence to field let alone finding another 7 cash cows to fill my benches!

Let's say that there are very few rookies for Rd1, the question I would then ask is: What is the outlook for quality rookies debuting between Rd 2 to Rd 7 that can provide the cash generation by the MBR's?

The potential different answers to this would provide different strategies. If there are quite a few that debut in this time then it may mean trading hard and fast is the way to go in order to get these guys in. It may even mean a scenario that if say 3 players debut in Rd 3 and all have great games, trading 1 into your team a week earlier than convention after one game in Rd4 thus allowing to trade the other two in for Rd 5 before there price rises.

On the other hand let's say that the drought continues for longer and the rookies don't come until later on..... well that's certainly going to create the need for some creativity or different thinking!!! Haven't thought it through yet, but maybe the rare and hard to pull off Pinch Hitter strategy may be worth a punt.

 

[OnTopBar]

Just saw your side in the RMT , confused myself by not realising you had Roberton and Hill as well.

I reckon we might have about 8 - 12 viable defender rookies named Round 1 so good luck selecting the right 3 ?

I am still not sure on Houston & Docherty personally , might have a rethink on them and just go Laird & Sicily plus the rookies.

Lynch & Smith will remain in my side , still tossing up F1.

Grundy & Gawn locked

If I'm running a 3-0-5 backline then I'll have to choose 5 viable rookies before I've even seen them play, plus bank on them all to stay around at least til round 6. If I only have to choose 3 then my chances are greatly improved. I will also have the opportunity of trading a MP or 2 and grab those rookies that look like they have JS and get them on the bubble with the added bonus of increased scoring from my MP's over those first few rounds. Same principle in the Fwd line. I'm much more confident in my ability to identify solid rookies after they've played a few games rather than taking a punt before the get go.

 

[Manikato1]

Here are the rookie debuts for the past three seasons. Rd 1 numbers been reasonably consistent. After that things can vary greatly.

 

[ScoringFreely]

Jarrod Cameron injured for the Ealges, while two rookies have been added to the list - Jermaine Jones (ex-cat) and Nicholas Reid. Doubt either will have a huge SC role but if Cameron misses for a while could be an option if one is named r1.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/381244/eagles-sign-ex-cat-wafl-goalsneak-on-rookie-deals

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1234792294907174917

 

[Bomber18]

There were bits of quite useful info from the HS articles on rookies which @Professor posted here - I have separated this info out in a more easy to digest manner. I haven't added the comments regarding NAB League and U18C leagues etc as those averages from the prospectus were posted earlier in the thread here

• Butts was drafted as a top-ager in the 2018 rookie draft and averaged 16 disposals, five intercepts and 74 points in the SANFL last season
• McAdams averaged 66 points and 1.6 goals per game in the SANFL last season
• Sam Skinner averaged 85 points per game last season in the NEAFL
• Ely Smith averaged 88 points in the NEAFL last season playing through the midfield and up forward
• Tyler Brown $123,900 MID averaged 15 touches and 74 points in the VFL in his first season on the Pies list
• Mark Keane $123,900 DEF averaged 56 points and six intercept possessions per game for Collingwood’s VFL in 2019 – his first season playing Aussie Rules.
• Mitch Hibberd averaged 128 points per game in the VFL as an inside midfielder last season
• Brandon Zerk-Thatcher $189,000 DEF averaged 78 points and 7.4 intercept possessions in the VFL
• Mosquito averaged 60 points and booted seven goals from 12 games in the VFL last season
• Sam Sturt averaged 70.2 points in his 11 non-injury affected WAFL games in 2019
• Tobe Watson averaged 82 points in the WAFL last year
• McLennan averaged a tick under 15 disposals and 62 points at NEAFL level
• Jacob Kennerley $123,900 DEF averaged 65 points from 18 VFL games in 2019
• Jake Riccardi $117,300 FWD booted 38 goals in the VFL last year and averaged 63 points
• Jackson Ross $123,900 FWD recorded a 26-point jump in average in the VFL last year, going at 71 points per game and kicking 35 goals
• Greaves averaged 58 SC in the VFL last season
• Bonar has played just six games in two seasons but has recorded season averages of 99 (2018) and 94 (2019) points in the NEAFL
• RCD finished the year with 22 touches and 109 points in the Tigers’ VFL Grand Final win; won 57.5 per cent of his possessions in a contest
• Gould excelled at SANFL level, taking the kick-ins for Glenelg and averaging 89 points per game
• D.Stephens played 13 senior SANFL games and averaging 82 points
• Cavarra had an injury-interrupted first season, playing just 12 matches and averaging 88 points in the VFL
• Anthony Treacy $112,900 FWD averaged 71 points in the WAFL last season

 

[Feerits Elf]

D.Stephens 12 (15th for GWS)

Swans brother

 

[Bomber18]

Swans brother

Thanks have fixed this now

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

I will be very interested to se how Fin Maginness goes if he is given a M2 game. Rated highly at the Hawks I believe. Could surprise.

Same problem with Greaves though, The Hawks don't traditionally blood youngsters for long periods in the AFL under Clarkson.

They usually learn their craft for the first few years in the VLF and even highly touted youngsters seem to get only sporadic appearances at AFL level.

Have been one of the poorest rookie producing teams for SC for a while now.

 

[Hondo]

Anyone up for doing an expected ins and outs for GWS from Grand Final side to R1?

 

[Hondo]

I'm running with 6 on field rookies, 5 if you don't count Naismith, so I'm a bit worried about cash generation and have loaded up on the bench rookies to compensate, I'll leave a lot of points on the bench but I'm hoping that the JS and cash make up for it, plus pretty handy for the byes if those rookies are still around. Currently have Bonar, Ash and Serong on the Mid bench with Rowell, Greene and Pickett on field, so Anderson with his JS is fully on the radar.

So not a single based priced mid rookie? Almost $600k on the bench. If you look back at the history of the expensive first year rookies you find the strike rate of averages over say 65 is not very high.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Anyone up for doing an expected ins and outs for GWS from Grand Final side to R1?

My guess:

OUT: Williams (inj), Taranto (inj), Tomlinson (trade), Mumford, Lloyd

IN: Ash, Coniglio, Green, Jacobs, Giles-Langdon