Position Defender Discussion

[BigRuss]

If he average drops from 100 to 96.4 then he would still be a good pick! And you wouldn't have to use a trade to get him in before the other bye rounds.

You end up getting 23 games out of his position opposed to 22. You also get the option of seeing if he’s even worth having in your side.

Gone from a deadset lock to a no brain wait and see in my view.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

If you want a prem in your start team, ignore the byes.

This midfield okay to start with then? ?

Macrae, J Kelly, Dunkley, Mitchell, Bontempelli

 

[PC]

This midfield okay to start with then? ?

Macrae, J Kelly, Dunkley, Mitchell, Bontempelli

Yep

 

[Erek22]

This midfield okay to start with then? ?

Macrae, J Kelly, Dunkley, Mitchell, Bontempelli

R14 no prem midfielders? That would be a gutsy call.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

R14 no prem midfielders? That would be a gutsy call.

Effectively goodbye overall ranking imo.

Now back to defenders chat as I’ve derailed this defender’s thread.

No Houston for my starting team.

 

[randomcliche]

So long Houston, you are now a trade in target

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/03/afl-lock-in-new-date-and-time-for-saints-power-clash/

I hope you are all paying $550k+ for him after a spike game in round 8 #staytrue.

It's interesting that at the margin you still end up with some rookies scores inside your best 18 across the bye rounds. I'm not sure that it's as simple as an extra game missed. If you have say 21 premos around the byes 14 premos on field you are still effectively incurring 3 rookie scores from benched premos, and 1 rookie score from not being full premo, albeit it's the best 3 you can muster... So I think the point cost is on average(1- 3/22)*(avg premo-avg rookie) compared to a regular bye round player.

The added flexibility across the bye rounds is useful. I also think purchasing Boak and holding the Port/Stk rookie KPFs will give added flexibility across the byes, or at least until rnd 13....the true bye round.

TLDR; I think the point cost is about 3.5 pt/game for Houston up to round 11. The stk/port rookies will add flexibility.

 

[randomcliche]

Dan Houston in 28% of teams. Lets see where it ends.

 

[Ironhawk]

I hope you are all paying $550k+ for him after a spike game in round 8 #staytrue.

It's interesting that at the margin you still end up with some rookies scores inside your best 18 across the bye rounds. I'm not sure that it's as simple as an extra game missed. If you have say 21 premos around the byes 14 premos on field you are still effectively incurring 3 rookie scores from benched premos, and 1 rookie score from not being full premo, albeit it's the best 3 you can muster... So I think the point cost is on average(1- 3/22)*(avg premo-avg rookie) compared to a regular bye round player.

The added flexibility across the bye rounds is useful. I also think purchasing Boak and holding the Port/Stk rookie KPFs will give added flexibility across the byes, or at least until rnd 13....the true bye round.

TLDR; I think the point cost is about 3.5 pt/game for Houston up to round 11. The stk/port rookies will add flexibility.

I think this is the first mention of Boak I have seen this year. Surprised he is in basically no teams.

 

[Bomber18]

I hope you are all paying $550k+ for him after a spike game in round 8 #staytrue.

It's interesting that at the margin you still end up with some rookies scores inside your best 18 across the bye rounds. I'm not sure that it's as simple as an extra game missed. If you have say 21 premos around the byes 14 premos on field you are still effectively incurring 3 rookie scores from benched premos, and 1 rookie score from not being full premo, albeit it's the best 3 you can muster... So I think the point cost is on average(1- 3/22)*(avg premo-avg rookie) compared to a regular bye round player.

The added flexibility across the bye rounds is useful. I also think purchasing Boak and holding the Port/Stk rookie KPFs will give added flexibility across the byes, or at least until rnd 13....the true bye round.

TLDR; I think the point cost is about 3.5 pt/game for Houston up to round 11. The stk/port rookies will add flexibility.

I am more concerned about the prospect of having both Roberton and Houston definitely out, which would leave you quite close to a donut (without the advantage of Best 18). Sure you could try shift Houston to the mid bench, but you would still need someone to switch into defense (maybe a Brander or Hill type). I know people sometimes copped donuts in the the earlier GC/Port byes in previous years.

I’m also not convinced Houston would go 105+ to hit 550k.

 

[randomcliche]

I am more concerned about the prospect of having both Roberton and Houston definitely out, which would leave you quite close to a donut (without the advantage of Best 18). Sure you could try shift Houston to the mid bench, but you would still need someone to switch into defense (maybe a Brander or Hill type). I know people sometimes copped donuts in the the earlier GC/Port byes in previous years.

I’m also not convinced Houston would go 105+ to hit 550k.

Doesn't need to go 105, just score an unreasonably large amount in rnd 8! Agreed, I don't think holding the Roberton and Houston over that week is viable. I haven't had Roberton in my team....yet.

 

[randomcliche]

I think this is the first mention of Boak I have seen this year. Surprised he is in basically no teams.

If one is flush with trades and the BE looks okay I can see bringing him in Rnd 12 as a bye round stop gap. Effectively adds 35+ points compared to anyone else at that point.

Oh, it's been quite on my Boakometer but there have been a few comments some positive some skeptical but few if any considering him an ultra premo.

 

[Spots]

Doesn't need to go 105, just score an unreasonably large amount in rnd 8! Agreed, I don't think holding the Roberton and Houston over that week is viable. I haven't had Roberton in my team....yet.

Round 7 against Carlton is at home, Round 8 away against the Dees... and I'm the same, no Roberton means I'm only fielding Houston with 5 rookies to cover and most likely some loopholing options for those too

 

[Bomber18]

Yep, understood. There's 2 players that are in my team now with that round 11 bye, Houston and Roberton, I have them in for differing reasons so I'll have to look at them individually.
In Houston's case, he's in because I see him as possibly a season long keeper who should score well, is underpriced for his potential output so should make a bit of cash, not that it matters if I keep him all year, it does matter though if I have him as an upgrade target because then I am paying way more $ than I am if I have him from the start. I'm thinking he's around a D4-D6 keeper, being a DPP I'll have the opportunity of choosing 3 different bench rookies to cover that round 11 bye so the points loss is mitigated to some extent.

I don't see Roberton as a trade in target, more as a stepping stone to a premo. So he'll be upgraded to someone like a Sicily/Williams/Laird after round 14. He does represent good value and should make a bit of cash while hopefully outscoring an on field rookie. His loss of points by having a rookie cover him over round 11 should be a bit less because of his output.

I'm only a noob to this game so my views might be completely wrong, but I do understand your rationale.

Some of the responses to the tweet - for me points 1 & 3 outweigh point 2

View attachment 16099

If he average drops from 100 to 96.4 then he would still be a good pick! And you wouldn't have to use a trade to get him in before the other bye rounds.

I forgot how controversial these discussions used to be regarding early bye round premiums.

Each to their own but I don’t expect Houston’s price to get too out of hand from 480k. If he was closer to $400k, I probably would’ve taken the risk and still started him but I’m expecting that Houston will hover around $500k averaging 95-100 (rather than average 105-110 to push 550k). Good excuse to wait and see as well given he’s not a proven premium anyway.

Roberton amplifies the risk for those who believe Roberton is a lock.

I’d also be interested to hear if anyone ever copped a donut during the GC/Port early byes of old, I remember one year there was a bit of carnage when Ryder/Gray types were popular.

 

[randomcliche]

I forgot how controversial these discussions used to be regarding early bye round premiums.

Each to their own but I don’t expect Houston’s price to get too out of hand from 480k. If he was closer to $400k, I probably would’ve taken the risk and still started him but I’m expecting that Houston will hover around $500k averaging 95-100 (rather than average 105-110 to push 550k). Good excuse to wait and see as well given he’s not a proven premium anyway.

Roberton amplifies the risk for those who believe Roberton is a lock.

I’d also be interested to hear if anyone ever copped a donut during the GC/Port early byes of old, I remember one year there was a bit of carnage when Ryder/Gray types were popular.

Yeah, you and I have different views on pre-round bye players, I think the bye round flexibility is rather useful. I don't think I've taken more than one on 3 lines in any season. What still hurts is I bought Jarrad Harbrow one year pre rnd 12 bye, who then went on to miss regular bye round matches to boot!
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Jarrod&surname=Harbrow&year=2017

 

[Bomber18]

Yeah, you and I have different views on pre-round bye players. I don't think I've taken more than one on 3 lines in any season. What still hurts is I bought Jarrad Harbrow one year pre rnd 12 bye, who then went on to miss regular bye round matches to boot!
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Jarrod&surname=Harbrow&year=2017

That was just unlucky that he missed after the bye.

 

[Kidult]

Surely Roberton could just be traded before his bye? Don't think it changes the fact that Houston is a great pick.

yeh u can start houston if u got midfield dpp cover around then and offload roberton for cash/injury b4 rd11

 

[Kidult]

It still brings a rookie onto the field when you could otherwise trade around the bye.

depends how u go about it having a few def/fwds and def/mids to switch around

 

[Kidult]

FWIW, when injuries and everything kick in around the byes, you need all 3 trades for downgrades/upgrades just to field 18 each week. It might be contrary thinking but having a couple of players miss in Round 11 makes it that little bit easier to have a full 18 in the multi bye rounds.

I'd planned pretty well I thought last year for the byes but with a couple of short term injuries to keepers and a couple of non playing rookies, it was bloody hard to get 18 on each week.. pretty sure I wore at least one donut

yup i like this way but cant see any other port or saints defender/mid if u hid him there to pick up for the 3 real byes

 

[randomcliche]

That was just unlucky that he missed after the bye.

And I did the same with Toby Greene this year, bought looking to shore up some dodgy bye rounds and he missed when he should have been helping out! Unlucky, but painful.

 

[Kidult]

Trading him in at R12 would be perfect, you get a bye free player at R12 when you otherwise probably wouldn’t be trading or would be trading in a player with an upcoming bye. Not too many Port/Saints premiums you’d want so makes sense to hold off on him.

Another point is that I expect R11 will be a standard round and not Best 18. In the bye rounds, you can have the benefit of poor rookie scores droping out (if you have planned well enough to have 19-20).


Each to their own strategy though. For me, he’s not viable anymore.

i had the same thought so i went for luke ryan having the 2nd real bye and 3% ownership 34k less in the bank