Position Defender Discussion

[pizza safety]

Wasn't it always more ideal to trade in the Port/St Kilda rookies after their byes to maximise scoring? It doesn't make Houston a worse scorer compared to other options as long as you can field a rookie in his place (like you would for another premium defender during the byes) but you might get something out of picking other premium defenders to start off with and then bringing him in in round 12.

This does make the Houston/Roberton combo less attractive as it basically means you're picking Roberton as a stepping stone only and not as a potential keeper.

 

[TopBillings]

Wasn't it always more ideal to trade in the Port/St Kilda rookies after their byes to maximise scoring? It doesn't make Houston a worse scorer compared to other options as long as you can field a rookie in his place (like you would for another premium defender during the byes) but you might get something out of picking other premium defenders to start off with and then bringing him in in round 12.

This does make the Houston/Roberton combo less attractive as it basically means you're picking Roberton as a stepping stone only and not as a potential keeper.

A bit to consider. I might just move on Houston for Sicily if having both is a no go btw I see Houston & Roberton being keepers

 

[freowho]

That's worth considering, but you also have 30 players to choose from (unlike by weeks where it could be 20 or less) - and apart from Roberton and Houston, I can't imagine there will be many more players from Saints or Port with any meaningful ownership.

So it's about navigating your defensive line through that round. Either have 8 warm bodies / swap Houston to the mids via a Starcevich/Ash type who might have presented by then via DPP / cop the donut and treat it like a donut in any other bye round (for which you'll have 2 players playing all 3 games).

At his price and expected scoring I thought Houston was a nice pick but not a must have. I was thinking 95-100.
If he goes 105+ then I'm getting burnt.
Out of curiosity did anyone think he would be a 105+ player and would this change the opinion of those skipping him?
I'm happy to start without him. The lack of Saints and Port players on my radar also makes it nice to have a trade in target from those teams after their bye.

 

[pizza safety]

Wasn't it always more ideal to trade in the Port/St Kilda rookies after their byes to maximise scoring? It doesn't make Houston a worse scorer compared to other options as long as you can field a rookie in his place (like you would for another premium defender during the byes) but you might get something out of picking other premium defenders to start off with and then bringing him in in round 12.

This does make the Houston/Roberton combo less attractive as it basically means you're picking Roberton as a stepping stone only and not as a potential keeper.

Important to note that is only worth about 40 points if you field a rookie to cover him so only worth 2 points in average.

 

[pizza safety]

At his price and expected scoring I thought Houston was a nice pick but not a must have. I was thinking 95-100.
If he goes 105+ then I'm getting burnt.
Out of curiosity did anyone think he would be a 105+ player and would this change the opinion of those skipping him?
I'm happy to start without him. The lack of Saints and Port players on my radar also makes it nice to have a trade in target from those teams after their bye.

I can’t see the difference between picking him and another bye player as long as you have a rookie covering him - I can only see a difference between starting him and trading him in for round 12 and then it’s only worth the difference between a premium score and a rookie score.

But there is a risk that you have no playing rookies in your backline that week, which could cost you 100 points.

I don’t think Houston burns anybody but he’s an underpriced pick who looks very likely to go 95-low 100’s & nobody cheaper than him other than Doch looks as likely to do that as him.

 

[Bomber18]

That's not the case, it's not 1-2 weeks. It's 1 game - the same as other slingshot players. It's a constant, it doesn't compound.

If they had a bye round in round 4, and you traded Houston in round 5, you don't get 8 extra weeks of a premium outscoring a rookie before the rest of the byes. The rookie upgrade could have gone to anyone, and you'd get a premium outscoring a rookie for that period.

You get one 1 week advantage - his "non-bye" during the bye period.

Say you have the choice to start one of Ryan or Houston now and then upgrade to the other post their bye.

If you start Ryan, you can upgrade to Houston in R12.
If you start Houston, you would need to wait until R14 to upgrade to Ryan (to do the slingshot)
There’s 2 weeks there of extra premium over rookie scoring you can get by starting Ryan now and slingshotting to Houston in R12.

 

[Leroy]

I've moved Houston out for Roberton at D4. I don't expect premium scoring from Roberton and expect to upgrade him before his bye anyway, hopefully at around 400k (perfect sacrificial lamb for getting Gawn ).

The cash turned Lynch into Whitfield. Like.

 

[pizza safety]

Say you have the choice to start one of Ryan or Houston now and then upgrade to the other post their bye.

If you start Ryan, you can upgrade to Houston in R12.
If you start Houston, you would need to wait until R14 to upgrade to Ryan (to do the slingshot)
There’s 2 weeks there of extra premium over rookie scoring you can get by starting Ryan now and slingshotting to Houston in R12.

Houston plays 12,13,14
You get Ryan for 14

Ryan plays 11,12,14
You get Houston for weeks 12,13,14

Likely to get two extra premium scores so worth about 80 points

The issue is that bye is so bad you are very prone get a 0 with one more player having that bye.

I can’t see any other defenders with the R12 bye who might be worth starting (Rich or Stewart?)

 

[Beg2Differ]

If we work on the assumption that Houston will give us 100 and a rookie will give you 60 in round 11 costing you 40 points. All else being even doesn’t Houston make that up when he plays in the bye week that your alternative starter wouldn’t because his 100 will replace a rookie 60?

I understand you are not guaranteed to have a defensive bench rookie available in round 11 however there is also no guarantee you will have 18 available in whatever bye week that would be.

 

[aps1]

If we work on the assumption that Houston will give us 100 and a rookie will give you 60 in round 11 costing you 40 points. All else being even doesn’t Houston make that up when he plays in the bye week that your alternative starter wouldn’t because his 100 will replace a rookie 60?

I understand you are not guaranteed to have a defensive bench rookie available in round 11 however there is also no guarantee you will have 18 available in whatever bye week that would be.

The issue is, who do you trade in in Rd12 as an upgrade. If you trade in a Saint/Port player then they can play through the byes without missing a game. Anyone else is missing one game due to the byes.

 

[BigRuss]

Just like literally every other player that has a round 12 or 13 bye.

You can slingshot all of them to get the extra game - I really don't understand why people are taking him out if they previously thought he was a good pick.

For me, the early bye gives me Houston as a clear upgrade target if he’s worthy of selection and provides you a player that will play every game in the MBR’s. It lets you make a pre bye upgrade without the complications of having to worry about how they fit into your bye structure.

If you think he’s a must start then by all means stay on him. I still think he’s a good pick but there’s certainly scenarios that eventuate where he doesn’t live up to expectations. Just makes more sense as a wait and see in my eyes.

 

[Beg2Differ]

The issue is, who do you trade in in Rd12 as an upgrade. If you trade in a Saint/Port player then they can play through the byes without missing a game. Anyone else is missing one game due to the byes.

Yes I agree that the round 11 bye does open up some upgrade options for round 12 that didn’t exist previously and Houston now fits into that category.

My post wasn’t really aimed at that but more around the general trend away from picking Houston as a starter.

However I do acknowledge that if the planets align and you are able to upgrade to Houston in round 12 then you get the bye round benefits without the round 11 cost.

 

[aps1]

My post wasn’t really aimed at that but more around the general trend away from picking Houston as a starter.

It depends on what you expect Houston will average. I had him at 95-100, which is good at his starting price but not a must have. If he scores in that range, he will be around $500k at the bye, so not out of hand price wise.

The risk in round 11 of trying to manage getting a full 22, just makes it a easy choice.

If you think he scores make him a must have, then I could understand starting him.

 

[TopBillings]

So starting both Houston & Roberton with the intentions of them being keepers is a no go?

 

[aps1]

So starting both Houston & Roberton with the intentions of them being keepers is a no go?

There is a very real risk of getting a zero (rookies being so reliable and all). Guess it depends on what you expect they will average and if that outweighs the risk.

 

[TopBillings]

There is a very real risk of getting a zero (rookies being so reliable and all). Guess it depends on what you expect they will average and if that outweighs the risk.

Houston 95
Roberton 90

I don't really plan for the byes I just pick who I think is the best choice

 

[Juzzo]

We need @Rowsus to intervene here and go step by step to put some point values on the different scenarios. He is the master of this.

 

[Kidult]

Yep him, Milera, Gibbs and Smith can all divvy up the possessions!!

smith likely to be in the guts/wing this year

 

[Kidult]

I have Luke Ryan as a POD but Laird is looking almost too good to resist

laird and sicily for me easy picks dont need to worry till rd14

 

[TopBillings]

Milera/Witherden starting to interest me..

Got my doubts on Docherty just gut feels