Position Defender Discussion

[pizza safety]

Maybe you have the same number of premiums in your side at any point in time but I'm trying to highlight that when they come is determines your exposure to the rookie score. If you trade in that rd 14 guys in rd 12 you solve a problem then but you have to cover them at the upcoming bye. If you assume you are going so well that your plans allow the same number of premos in the 18 come rd 14 then sure there is no difference.

But the inescapable fact remains you face more potential rookie scores by starting Houston - not so many that I'm saying you shouldn't....if there was a deadset simple swap for a player in his price range that we all agreed was a great starter I reckon this conversation ends sooner. Houston looks like a good pick (even accounting for the above) so back him in i reckon

I’m not sure if you are more exposed

If you start a r14 player instead of Houston you already have to cover that player during the byes, the composition of the team is the same whether you start Sicily and trade Houston in or start Houston and trade Sicily in at round 12, you’re covering the same number of players in each bye.

 

[OnTopBar]

Team B has less players in round 11 but otherwise the same number across the rest of the byes. They already have the “slingshot player” in Houston (you’re not slingshotting him in but you have him already) and can bring in any other player who they would have started instead of Houston in round 12 (except round 12 bye players) - so that the team is the same on paper at the start of the byes.

I'm in the camp of holding Houston, but I don't think I'll be bringing in a player in round 12 that is yet to have their bye, so with the Sicily example he won't be in til after round 14. The only players I'd bring in would be players from round 11 that I see as keeping for the rest of the year.

Essentially the cost is having a rookie on field for 1 game where all 22 scores are counted as opposed to the MBR's where 18 are counted. and in Houston's case that's a choice of 5 rookies.

 

[jaca]

I think the big one is Marshall. He's already done with Grundy and NicNat by the time his bye rolls around. Has Gawn in Rd 17 but apart from that has a great ruck draw in the second half...

Yup. I'm really keeping an eye on Naismith, as I like this idea.

Unfortunately, I'm a little concerned with Naismith's durability....

 

[pizza safety]

I'm in the camp of holding Houston, but I don't think I'll be bringing in a player in round 12 that is yet to have their bye, the only players I'd bring in would be players from round 11 that I see as keeping for the rest of the year

That’s the other thing, a r11 bye player might show up.

But if not why not bring in a R14 player in round 12 for an extra premium score across the byes?

 

[OnTopBar]

That’s the other thing, a r11 bye player might show up.

But if not why not bring in a R14 player in round 12 for an extra premium score across the byes?

Thing is that you're not getting that extra premium score over the byes, you lose one round's score, that might be 60 pts which reduces the other two scores by 30%, effectively dropping your premo score over the byes to rookie level.

*Edit.......might have stuffed up the math there. Let's assume a 100 average over the 3 byes. The round 14 player will score 200 and the rookie covering say 50? So, 250 pts in total, divide by 3 and you'll get a return of 83 pts.

 

[pizza safety]

Thing is that you're not getting that extra premium score over the byes, you lose one round's score, that might be 60 pts which reduces the other two scores by 30%, effectively dropping your premo score over the byes to rookie level.

Yeah that’s definitely a concern but it still shows you only get one less premium score than by not starting Houston, but if you trade in a r12 bye player you you’re and start Houston you have the same number of premium scores as if you didn’t start him and traded him in.

The only issue I see is the risk that you don’t have rookie cover in R11 and he makes Roberton less appealing.

 

[pizza safety]

Maybe you have the same number of premiums in your side at any point in time but I'm trying to highlight that when they come is determines your exposure to the rookie score. If you trade in that rd 14 guys in rd 12 you solve a problem then but you have to cover them at the upcoming bye. If you assume you are going so well that your plans allow the same number of premos in the 18 come rd 14 then sure there is no difference.

But the inescapable fact remains you face more potential rookie scores by starting Houston - not so many that I'm saying you shouldn't....if there was a deadset simple swap for a player in his price range that we all agreed was a great starter I reckon this conversation ends sooner. Houston looks like a good pick (even accounting for the above) so back him in i reckon

There is definitely one premium score missing if you start Houston and you run the risk of having no bench cover in round 11 - both are risks. But Id say that Houston can make up that premium score through his value and what it allows you to do with the rest of the team

 

[pizza safety]

Team B has less players in round 11 but otherwise the same number across the rest of the byes. They already have the “slingshot player” in Houston (you’re not slingshotting him in but you have him already) and can bring in any other player who they would have started instead of Houston in round 12 (except round 12 bye players) - so that the team is the same on paper at the start of the byes.

The point is just this, you miss Houston in round 11 if you start him.

But if you trade in Jake Lloyd or Laird or whoever you might have started ahead of him in round 12, then your team is the exact same for the byes as if you started that player and then traded Houston into your team in round 12.

You get one extra premium score, but not two extra premium scores by not starting Houston if you trade in a r13 or r14 bye player in round 12.

If you start Houston and then you slingshot in another Port/St Kilda player into your team in round 12 then you're on the same level of premiums from weeks 11-14 as somebody who didn't start Houston and "slingshotted him in" because now you have two premium players playing in all 3 byes as opposed to just one. Thats dependent on a Port or St Kilda premium being viable, which might well not happen. I think DBJ has the best shot.

Btw am I using this slingshot terminology the right way? I've never heard it before but have taken it to mean trading somebody in post bye?

 

[Bomber18]

Couldn't you also start Houston and trade in another port/stk player post r11? Gresham, Rozee etc Depends how bullish you are on Houston and another port/stk option presenting.

Yes I think this is where the discussion has been a bit stuck... the people that think Houston is the only keeper they would want to trade in after Round 11 out of Saints & Port are in the camp not wanting to start with Houston.... but if there were other trade in targets then the discussion is moot.

Either way I think most are saying that the value presented based on Houstons starting price probably makes it a 50/50 decision anyway

Definitely could as long as it didn’t turn into a “compromise” pick.

 

[ScoringFreely]

 

[Herbie66]

so what is the formula be if I started both Byrne-Jones & Houston ? (didn't DBJ's scores increase when Houston played mid apart from 1 low score ? )

to be honest I got confused 3 pages ago and it's not getting any clearer.

any starting premium could miss a week due to injury/suspension and you have to cover them anyway

lots of things could go wrong (or right) before the byes

 

[pizza safety]

Say you start Lloyd over Houston alongside Sic and Doc and then trade in Laird at about round 9

R 11
Lloyd, Laird, Sic, Doc

R 12 (trade in Houston)
Lloyd, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc


Say you start Houston alongside Sic and Doc and then trade in Laird at about round 9

R11
Laird, Sic, Doc

R12 (trade in Lloyd)
Lloyd, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc

The same applies if you start or trade in any other round 13 or round 14 players or start a round 12 player.*

Both backlines are the exact same by the start of the byes. You miss out one premium score in round 11 by not starting Houston. However, if there's a viable r12 premium to bring in to your team as opposed to one of these defenders, then you are have as many premiums playing from rounds 11-14 that you would if you started Houston.

 

[Bomber18]

Team B has less players in round 11 but otherwise the same number across the rest of the byes. They already have the “slingshot player” in Houston (you’re not slingshotting him in but you have him already) and can bring in any other player who they would have started instead of Houston in round 12 (except round 12 bye players) - so that the team is the same on paper at the start of the byes.

Yes, this is the case where the comparison is with a R14 bye player and Team B trades that R14 bye player in during R12 (and they could do that in R11 too or any earlier time). But if for example, the player in question was a R13 or R12 bye player, Team B would probably wait until after their bye before trading them in (i.e. R13 or R14). So there could be 2 extra premium scores for Team A in such scenario whilst Team B waits to trade that player in.

To be fair, I did say 1-2 premium scores originally (although hadn't actually done the analysis at the time). There are scenarios where it is 1 (which you've highlighted) and scenarios where its 2.

It is a good point nonetheless that Team B could trade in a player with an upcoming bye during the first multi bye (but potentially miss out on rookie cover scores in the player was a R12/R13 bye player). But that sort of debate will probably open up a bigger can of worms than what I have unexpectedly with this Houston debate.

 

[poopingHindi]

I had a pretty clear idea in my mind of what I wanted to do until I read the last 4 pages.
now

 

[Bomber18]

Each to their own strategy on Houston (taking him is completely fine too) but personally, I'm not starting Houston due to the bye round change and with Roberton being a bigger priority for me as a starting pick at his price. The main and overaching concern I had was that taking both Roberton and Houston would bring me two steps closer to a donut in R11 (which would completely change the XYs). All other considerations are probably not as important.

 

[pizza safety]

Yes, this is the case where the comparison is with a R14 bye player and Team B trades that R14 bye player in during R12 (and they could do that in R11 too or any earlier time). But if for example, the player in question was a R13 or R12 bye player, Team B would probably wait until after their bye before trading them in (i.e. R13 or R14). So there could be 2 extra premium scores for Team A in such scenario whilst Team B waits to trade that player in.

To be fair, I did say 1-2 premium scores originally (although hadn't actually done the analysis at the time). There are scenarios where it is 1 (which you've highlighted) and scenarios where its 2.

It is a good point nonetheless that Team B could trade in a player with an upcoming bye during the first multi bye (but potentially miss out on rookie cover scores in the player was a R12/R13 bye player). But that sort of debate will probably open up a bigger can of worms than what I have unexpectedly with this Houston debate.

Hahaha yeah this is very complex

I’ve just shown how it’s the same (1 extra player) if you start Lloyd who has the r13 bye and I could also show how it’s the same if you start a r12 player. Basically I can’t see any way how you can be prevented from having just 1 less premium during rounds 11-14 if you start Houston. You are trading in a r13 player in round 12 who has an upcoming bye but you nonetheless have just 1 less premium playing from rounds 11-14 and the same amount during rounds 12-14.

 

[Bomber18]

Hahaha yeah this is very complex

I’ve just shown how it’s the same (1 extra player) if you start Lloyd who has the r13 bye and I could also show how it’s the same if you start a r12 player. Basically I can’t see any way how you can be prevented from having just 1 less premium during rounds 11-14 if you start Houston. You are trading in a r13 player in round 12 who has an upcoming bye but you nonetheless have just 1 less premium playing from rounds 11-14 and the same amount during rounds 12-14.

Yes, I agree provided you are set on trading in a player in R12 with an upcoming bye. The only benefit would be Lloyd over rookie score in R11. But if it becomes Lloyd over donut in R11, the XY changes signficantly.

 

[pizza safety]

Yes, I agree provided you are set on trading in a player in R12 with an upcoming bye. The only benefit would be Lloyd over rookie score in R11. But if it becomes Lloyd over donut in R11, the XY changes signficantly.

Bringing Lloyd or Daniel or whichever round 13 or round 14 player into your side for round 11 would be preferable.

My point was just that Houston only appears to give us two extra premium scores because we're not allowing ourselves to trade in round 13 or round 14 bye players in round 12, but these are the same guys we'd be starting instead of him! so the team is the exact same and trading one of these players in is just as necessary for any Houston owners as it is for any non Houston owners to trade Houston into your team in r12. As you've highlighted if you don't trade in any round 13 or round 14 players @ round 12 then you are down two premium scores by the end of the byes.

Best case scenario and a DBJ is putting up premium numbers and we miss out on nothing (unless the non-owners bring in both a DBJ and Houston).

 

[pizza safety]

Bringing Lloyd or Daniel or whichever round 13 or round 14 player into your side for round 11 would be preferable.

My point was just that Houston only appears to give us two extra premium scores because we're not allowing ourselves to trade in round 13 or round 14 bye players in round 12, but these are the same guys we'd be starting instead of him! so the team is the exact same and trading one of these players in is just as necessary for any Houston owners as it is for any non Houston owners to trade him into your team in r12. As you've highlighted if you don't trade in any round 13 or round 14 players @ round 12 then you are down two premium scores by the end of the byes.

Best case scenario and a DBJ is putting up premium numbers and we miss out on nothing (unless the non-owners bring in both a DBJ and Houston).

You could also trade in round 13 and 14 bye players in round 11 and rounds 11, 13 and 14 bye players in round 12.

 

[Rowsus]

Btw am I using this slingshot terminology the right way? I've never heard it before but have taken it to mean trading somebody in post bye?

Slingshot is a term I created 3 or 4 seasons ago, to give a name to a previously used, but as far as I know, unnamed tactic.
Basically a slingshot is when you trade out a player who still has a bye to come, and replace him with a player who has been through his bye. This mainly refers to Prems, but could conceivably apply to other players too.
Part of the reason to do it, is to get 1 more Prem score across the byes, as opposed to a Rookie score or a donut.