AJC Derby winners - lead up races, prior staying form.
The AJC Derby is a much better indicator of future performers. Keep in mind, we are talking about 3yo horses that are now 6months older than the VRC Derby. That's a big difference to a 3yo!
2019: Angel Of Truth - stole the race by being allowed to run so slowly in a clear lead, nothing else really had a hope from a long way out. Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, and was 5th in a poor BM78 at 1900m prior to that. That was his only staying form
2018: Levendi - Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, ran 2nd in the Gp2 Alister Clark at 2040 prior to that. That was his only staying form.
2017: Jon Snow - Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, ran 3rd in Gp1 NZ Derby at 2400m prior to that. Only one other start at 2000+m before those 2 starts.
2016: Tavago - unlucky 6th in Gp1 NZ Derby at 2400m 28 days prior, last in Waikato Guin at 2000m prior to that. That was his only staying form.
2015: Mongolian Khan - 5th in Gp1 Rosehill Guineas 16 days prior, won Gp1 NZ Derby prior to that. Won 3 2000-2100m races prior to that.
2014: Criterion - won Gp1 Rosehill Guin 14 days prior, top 4 in his only 2 other 2000+m runs prior. 2nd in Gp3 Champion, 4th in VRC Derby.
2013: It's A Dundeel - won Gp1 Rosehill Guin 14 days prior, won and placed in 2000m races prior to that.
2012: Ethiopia - 2nd Gp2 Alistair Clark Stks 29 days prior, won Derby at 4th start!
Last 8 Derby winners
The last 3 winners won the Gp2 Tulloch 7 days prior to the Derby (Quick Thinker 2020 winner), and 2 have won the Rosehill Guineas 14 days prior to the Derby (Castelvecchio 2020 winner), 2 of them ran well ie. won or unlucky, in the NZ Derby (Sherwood Forest 2020 winner), one came from nearly nowhere.
The 3 horses history suggests:
Castelvecchio placed at Gp1 in his only other 2000+m races, including a Cox Plate.
Quick Thinker ran 5th to Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio in his only other 2000m race
Sherwood Forest won and placed in 2 of his 3 only other 2000+m races.
History suggests Castelvecchio.