Competitions SuperCoach Racing Autumn 2019
- Thread starter THCLT
- Start date
hey Chels,
I rate Gayatri higher than Carif on heavy, but also because Carif costs 275k (as opposed to 200k), helping me adjust the rest of my team’s cap with that extra 75k - I’m honestly not sold on that g2 race (the odds suggest how open it is), but am also considering swapping to Reloaded ($2 fav in a g3), potentially Grand Piano also
Best case scenario Gayatri wins, worse case, doesn’t place and finishes down the track - but a tough one
I rate Gayatri higher than Carif on heavy, but also because Carif costs 275k (as opposed to 200k), helping me adjust the rest of my team’s cap with that extra 75k - I’m honestly not sold on that g2 race (the odds suggest how open it is), but am also considering swapping to Reloaded ($2 fav in a g3), potentially Grand Piano also
Best case scenario Gayatri wins, worse case, doesn’t place and finishes down the track - but a tough one
This will sound strange, but the VRC Derby isn't really a stayers race, but more "the best horse on the day".
Let's look at recent Derby winners, how they fared in the AJC Derby, and how they went in good distance races after that.
2018: Extra Brut - DNS (Did not start AJC Derby) - Only one 2 race long prep after Derby win.
2017: Ace High - 2nd to Levendi - never placed beyond 2000m again!
2016: Prized Icon - 7th to Jon Snow - never placed beyond 2000m again!
2015: Tarzino - 4th to Tavago - never placed beyong 2000m again.
2014: Preferment - 8th to Mongolian Khan - won a 2400m BMW and a 2000m Turnbull after that.
2013: Polanski - only raced one time after VRC Derby, at 1400m
2012: Fiveandahalftstar - elected to run in BMW instead of Derby. Won that. Never placed again in 4 starts after that.
2011: Sangster - 9th to Ethiopia - won an Avandale Cup 2400m and Auckland Cup at 3200m at 4yo. Never placed beyond 2040 again.
So in the last 8 years, only 1 VRC Derby winner has placed in the AJC Derby, from 5 to start.
For the most part, the VRC Derby hasn't signalled a prosperous career at 2000m and beyond.
Let's look at recent Derby winners, how they fared in the AJC Derby, and how they went in good distance races after that.
2018: Extra Brut - DNS (Did not start AJC Derby) - Only one 2 race long prep after Derby win.
2017: Ace High - 2nd to Levendi - never placed beyond 2000m again!
2016: Prized Icon - 7th to Jon Snow - never placed beyond 2000m again!
2015: Tarzino - 4th to Tavago - never placed beyong 2000m again.
2014: Preferment - 8th to Mongolian Khan - won a 2400m BMW and a 2000m Turnbull after that.
2013: Polanski - only raced one time after VRC Derby, at 1400m
2012: Fiveandahalftstar - elected to run in BMW instead of Derby. Won that. Never placed again in 4 starts after that.
2011: Sangster - 9th to Ethiopia - won an Avandale Cup 2400m and Auckland Cup at 3200m at 4yo. Never placed beyond 2040 again.
So in the last 8 years, only 1 VRC Derby winner has placed in the AJC Derby, from 5 to start.
For the most part, the VRC Derby hasn't signalled a prosperous career at 2000m and beyond.
AJC Derby winners - lead up races, prior staying form.
The AJC Derby is a much better indicator of future performers. Keep in mind, we are talking about 3yo horses that are now 6months older than the VRC Derby. That's a big difference to a 3yo!
2019: Angel Of Truth - stole the race by being allowed to run so slowly in a clear lead, nothing else really had a hope from a long way out. Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, and was 5th in a poor BM78 at 1900m prior to that. That was his only staying form
2018: Levendi - Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, ran 2nd in the Gp2 Alister Clark at 2040 prior to that. That was his only staying form.
2017: Jon Snow - Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, ran 3rd in Gp1 NZ Derby at 2400m prior to that. Only one other start at 2000+m before those 2 starts.
2016: Tavago - unlucky 6th in Gp1 NZ Derby at 2400m 28 days prior, last in Waikato Guin at 2000m prior to that. That was his only staying form.
2015: Mongolian Khan - 5th in Gp1 Rosehill Guineas 16 days prior, won Gp1 NZ Derby prior to that. Won 3 2000-2100m races prior to that.
2014: Criterion - won Gp1 Rosehill Guin 14 days prior, top 4 in his only 2 other 2000+m runs prior. 2nd in Gp3 Champion, 4th in VRC Derby.
2013: It's A Dundeel - won Gp1 Rosehill Guin 14 days prior, won and placed in 2000m races prior to that.
2012: Ethiopia - 2nd Gp2 Alistair Clark Stks 29 days prior, won Derby at 4th start!
Last 8 Derby winners
The last 3 winners won the Gp2 Tulloch 7 days prior to the Derby (Quick Thinker 2020 winner), and 2 have won the Rosehill Guineas 14 days prior to the Derby (Castelvecchio 2020 winner), 2 of them ran well ie. won or unlucky, in the NZ Derby (Sherwood Forest 2020 winner), one came from nearly nowhere.
The 3 horses history suggests:
Castelvecchio placed at Gp1 in his only other 2000+m races, including a Cox Plate.
Quick Thinker ran 5th to Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio in his only other 2000m race
Sherwood Forest won and placed in 2 of his 3 only other 2000+m races.
History suggests Castelvecchio.
The AJC Derby is a much better indicator of future performers. Keep in mind, we are talking about 3yo horses that are now 6months older than the VRC Derby. That's a big difference to a 3yo!
2019: Angel Of Truth - stole the race by being allowed to run so slowly in a clear lead, nothing else really had a hope from a long way out. Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, and was 5th in a poor BM78 at 1900m prior to that. That was his only staying form
2018: Levendi - Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, ran 2nd in the Gp2 Alister Clark at 2040 prior to that. That was his only staying form.
2017: Jon Snow - Won the Gp2 Tulloch at 2000m 7 days prior, ran 3rd in Gp1 NZ Derby at 2400m prior to that. Only one other start at 2000+m before those 2 starts.
2016: Tavago - unlucky 6th in Gp1 NZ Derby at 2400m 28 days prior, last in Waikato Guin at 2000m prior to that. That was his only staying form.
2015: Mongolian Khan - 5th in Gp1 Rosehill Guineas 16 days prior, won Gp1 NZ Derby prior to that. Won 3 2000-2100m races prior to that.
2014: Criterion - won Gp1 Rosehill Guin 14 days prior, top 4 in his only 2 other 2000+m runs prior. 2nd in Gp3 Champion, 4th in VRC Derby.
2013: It's A Dundeel - won Gp1 Rosehill Guin 14 days prior, won and placed in 2000m races prior to that.
2012: Ethiopia - 2nd Gp2 Alistair Clark Stks 29 days prior, won Derby at 4th start!
Last 8 Derby winners
The last 3 winners won the Gp2 Tulloch 7 days prior to the Derby (Quick Thinker 2020 winner), and 2 have won the Rosehill Guineas 14 days prior to the Derby (Castelvecchio 2020 winner), 2 of them ran well ie. won or unlucky, in the NZ Derby (Sherwood Forest 2020 winner), one came from nearly nowhere.
The 3 horses history suggests:
Castelvecchio placed at Gp1 in his only other 2000+m races, including a Cox Plate.
Quick Thinker ran 5th to Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio in his only other 2000m race
Sherwood Forest won and placed in 2 of his 3 only other 2000+m races.
History suggests Castelvecchio.
