Strategy Round 4: Trades
- Thread starter IDIG
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So I'm not sure if I'm the only one thinking this... but many of the proposed trades I'm seeing seem like classic examples of 'chasing last week's points...'
Eg:
Fyfe: Price 675k - Obvious gun, shorter games probably suit his game. Can probably justify bringing him in IF it can be done without compromising your team structure (and using only 1 trade).
Pittonet: 2 MASSIVE games for the club. Almost certainly not sustainable. Jumped 80k already. Are you content with 100-200k left in price rises? Could be decent for a quick cash-grab, but again, cost of a trade etc etc.
Simpkin: Already jumped 100k to 485k. If you were bullish he could average 90 for the season that means he goes at 82/game from here to maintain that? 95 for the year means 88/game from here. How far are you adjusting your initial expectations after a few good games?
He switched to more of a mid role for the last 9 games of 2019 and averaged 76 over that time. A +20 jump seems a bit of a stretch, but plausible, so are you happy with mid-80s from here as a forward keeper for basically top-dollar if that pans out?
My strategy has almost always been to look for value going the other direction. Eg Titch in a few weeks might have bottomed out, meaning likely to produce higher than his value at the time.
Thoughts?
Eg:
Fyfe: Price 675k - Obvious gun, shorter games probably suit his game. Can probably justify bringing him in IF it can be done without compromising your team structure (and using only 1 trade).
Pittonet: 2 MASSIVE games for the club. Almost certainly not sustainable. Jumped 80k already. Are you content with 100-200k left in price rises? Could be decent for a quick cash-grab, but again, cost of a trade etc etc.
Simpkin: Already jumped 100k to 485k. If you were bullish he could average 90 for the season that means he goes at 82/game from here to maintain that? 95 for the year means 88/game from here. How far are you adjusting your initial expectations after a few good games?
He switched to more of a mid role for the last 9 games of 2019 and averaged 76 over that time. A +20 jump seems a bit of a stretch, but plausible, so are you happy with mid-80s from here as a forward keeper for basically top-dollar if that pans out?
My strategy has almost always been to look for value going the other direction. Eg Titch in a few weeks might have bottomed out, meaning likely to produce higher than his value at the time.
Thoughts?
Simpkin. I’ve learnt to ignore all rules for young players breaking out. So re Simpkin, I’m of the view he could average 110 this season. Shorter games and season helps as well as he’s less lilely to tire out. He’s coming in for me and 480k still seems like value for him.
Pittonet. I think 110+ is sustainable. He scored 130+ against quality ruck opposition, Gawn and Stanley (who actually competes well against the Grundy/Gawn types). Still worth picking up this round imo.
Fyfe, I’m disappointed not to have started him but he’s a priority for me, even if he hits $700k. On my list for maybe next round if funds permit.
Pittonet. I think 110+ is sustainable. He scored 130+ against quality ruck opposition, Gawn and Stanley (who actually competes well against the Grundy/Gawn types). Still worth picking up this round imo.
Fyfe, I’m disappointed not to have started him but he’s a priority for me, even if he hits $700k. On my list for maybe next round if funds permit.
Without looking at specific players, and in normal seasons, I'd say your thinking is spot on.
We generally see Coaches chasing the hot player, paying too much for them too late, then bemoaning their return.
On specific players, I can see the potential for Simpkin to still be an OK trade in this week, but it might start to hit the questionable area after that.
Neale is an interesting one. I'm expecting him to go 150+ again this week, against Ade. HOWEVER, I'm expecting after about round 5 or 6, he might only average around 110 for the remaining games. As you alluded to, do you want to pay $750k, for a player that goes in simple terms 160, 140, 110, 110, 110, 110 etc. Yes 110 is good enough for an MID Keeper, but a 115 return on your money, is not good enough for a $760k player. At those numbers, he will very quickly be below $650k again.
I agree with your sentiment. Set reasonable expectations. Don't adjust them by large numbers, based on 2 or 3 games. Look at the return on your investment over the rest of the season. Try to look more than 1 game ahead!
We generally see Coaches chasing the hot player, paying too much for them too late, then bemoaning their return.
On specific players, I can see the potential for Simpkin to still be an OK trade in this week, but it might start to hit the questionable area after that.
Neale is an interesting one. I'm expecting him to go 150+ again this week, against Ade. HOWEVER, I'm expecting after about round 5 or 6, he might only average around 110 for the remaining games. As you alluded to, do you want to pay $750k, for a player that goes in simple terms 160, 140, 110, 110, 110, 110 etc. Yes 110 is good enough for an MID Keeper, but a 115 return on your money, is not good enough for a $760k player. At those numbers, he will very quickly be below $650k again.
I agree with your sentiment. Set reasonable expectations. Don't adjust them by large numbers, based on 2 or 3 games. Look at the return on your investment over the rest of the season. Try to look more than 1 game ahead!
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I was just looking at breakevens - is Pittonet really still -90??? and playing the bombers this week. wow I can't believe this but I am entertaining bringing him in for Grundy and going Sturt (injured) to Petracca. Pending Carlton playing this week of course.
If he doesn't play this week I will be contemplating this even more the week after! this season has officially gone coco bananas everything is out the window
EDIT: I can't see myself putting Pittonet on the bench though. If I go there I want points on field or I will spend the cash elsewhere
If he doesn't play this week I will be contemplating this even more the week after! this season has officially gone coco bananas everything is out the window
EDIT: I can't see myself putting Pittonet on the bench though. If I go there I want points on field or I will spend the cash elsewhere
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I am one who is entertaining breaking structure. I held Naismith at R3 and have Pittonet at R2 with Ceglar up fwd. Small sample size but in a year when solo ruck scoring looks very favorable I don't see why they should not sit at R1 and R2 for a considerable part of what is a short season whilst I upgrade elsewhere around them.
I don't expect them to match Grundy, Gawn or Goldy over the long term, but am also not convinced that missing these big three will be as damaging in the short term if it allows for getting rookies of the field more quickly on the other lines. Might wait a week to ensure Naismith returns and can play more than one game straight but don't think on current evidence its so clear cut as to what the best strategy for the rucks will prove to be this year.
I don't expect them to match Grundy, Gawn or Goldy over the long term, but am also not convinced that missing these big three will be as damaging in the short term if it allows for getting rookies of the field more quickly on the other lines. Might wait a week to ensure Naismith returns and can play more than one game straight but don't think on current evidence its so clear cut as to what the best strategy for the rucks will prove to be this year.
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begs the question... when he hits $760k or more is he a trade out for a fallen premo at around $550k, pocket the ~$200k especially in a year where cash generation is hard, and you are also starting upgrade season in round 5?
- To see him averaging ~120 for the year meaning from here he goes around 110 for the rest of the year (as you state)
- 115 end of year average means only 105 from here
- 125 end of year its 116 from here
- 130 end of year its 122 from here
round 4 last year he was going at 146... hit $690k. for the rest of the year from there he averaged 109........................I have owned Neale from the start and whilst I'm contemplating this the hard part will be actually trading out a guy averaging 150+!
- To see him averaging ~120 for the year meaning from here he goes around 110 for the rest of the year (as you state)
- 115 end of year average means only 105 from here
- 125 end of year its 116 from here
- 130 end of year its 122 from here
round 4 last year he was going at 146... hit $690k. for the rest of the year from there he averaged 109........................I have owned Neale from the start and whilst I'm contemplating this the hard part will be actually trading out a guy averaging 150+!
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Lots of thoughts each way on Neale. I am contemplating bringing him in and I never buy towards the top. waited last year till he came down to $580k from memory.
some issues I see
Lack of fixtures makes it hard to see when that tag is coming.
Port may tag, but let Fyfe roam free yesterday.
Shorter season, cannot play the long game as easy.
Lack of cash generation may argue against chasing a Neale in a short season.
Lack of capt scores elsewhere and other premiums really disappointing.
For someone without Gawn, think o***et cash saved on Pittonet suggests Neale can be justified.
I could chase a Simpkin/Petracca or both with a fourth trade, however, the capt option does double the value of Neale.
some issues I see
Lack of fixtures makes it hard to see when that tag is coming.
Port may tag, but let Fyfe roam free yesterday.
Shorter season, cannot play the long game as easy.
Lack of cash generation may argue against chasing a Neale in a short season.
Lack of capt scores elsewhere and other premiums really disappointing.
For someone without Gawn, think o***et cash saved on Pittonet suggests Neale can be justified.
I could chase a Simpkin/Petracca or both with a fourth trade, however, the capt option does double the value of Neale.
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Jesus I wish I had these problems... I've just searched my list for out performance, I found Fyfe and Docherty...that's it... Searching for underperformance well that was easy, two on each line pretty much :-/ Whitfield&Dusty; Grundy; Jelly&Danger; Houston&BZT&Noble the first 6 I was pretty bloody confident in...oh wells! I think this season has a wall near by... what's it say???
I can probably just afford to do:
Noble > Rookie
Bewley > Petracca/Simpkin
I don't know who I'd bring in for Noble, would need to be a defender so it probably won't work. Also think both he and Bewley have some cash still to make.
Noah Anderson has been disappointing so far. He's actually looked okay watching the games but doesn't seem to be able to get his hands on the footy. BE of 11 so still got some money to make but was hoping for something more substantial. At least his JS is solid
Noble > Rookie
Bewley > Petracca/Simpkin
I don't know who I'd bring in for Noble, would need to be a defender so it probably won't work. Also think both he and Bewley have some cash still to make.
Noah Anderson has been disappointing so far. He's actually looked okay watching the games but doesn't seem to be able to get his hands on the footy. BE of 11 so still got some money to make but was hoping for something more substantial. At least his JS is solid
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Rather desperate not to play Bomber?
The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services will be guiding the AFL.
Not sure how you conclude everyone at training would have come face to face with him for 15 minutes, would say almost no one did. Training would have been outdoors, for less than 2 hours, so would be surprised if anyone in the main session would be deemed close contact by definition.
The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services will be guiding the AFL.
Not sure how you conclude everyone at training would have come face to face with him for 15 minutes, would say almost no one did. Training would have been outdoors, for less than 2 hours, so would be surprised if anyone in the main session would be deemed close contact by definition.