Strategy Round 6: Trades

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The first part of this is a good argument for buying him.

The second part almost confirms for me you should wait a week - buying smart is going to be the key? So I would be better off missing his first big score, whilst his breakeven is 98, and seeing that he still can go big. I then would pick him up at a similar price, as he isn't going up much, and a very low breakeven.
If he fails this week, against the hapless crows as you put it, then I would likely not want him anyway? I dodge a bullet
Yeo could be a great pick once consistency is proven ie another 100+ this week would be sufficient for me to bring him in.
As Spiff pointed out he seems to be a slow starter (there are players like that as we know) but come home with a wet sail - good value now he's lower in price.
Can take the risk now or pay a little more later.
 
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- Coming into his 9th season (aged 27)
- Highest average EVER only 103 (back in 2015)
- Averaged 97 last year (relatively low ceiling)

For $566k, you'd be wanting at least a 105+ average from here on out, which is definitely possible, but doesn't necessarily seem a value option.
The inconsistent scoring this year as highlighted by @Ben's Beasts is a concern, but regarding these - the big knock on Shiel has always been his endurance. It was the reason he never cemented himself in the midfield rotation at GWS as more than a burst player. It looks like reduced quarters has provided him a one off chance for improvement because instead of being sheltered up forward or on the bench for a percentage of time, he can play through the middle for the same amount of time but overall a higher percentage of the game.
 

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Yeo could be a great pick once consistency is proven ie another 100+ this week would be sufficient for me to bring him in.
As Spiff pointed out he seems to be a slow starter (there are players like that as we know) but come home with a wet sail - good value now he's lower in price.
Can take the risk now or pay a little more later.
I remember that Adam Goodes in his prime was a leading example of this.

Would start slowly and then go BANG!

I’m likely taking the same approach with Yeo. A 110+ this week and I likely jump on next week.
 
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I remember that Adam Goodes in his prime was a leading example of this.

Would start slowly and then go BANG!

I’m likely taking the same approach with Yeo. A 110+ this week and I likely jump on next week.
Agree! That’s my plan as well with Yeo, wait a week he won’t rise much in price if he were to score 100 +
 
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- Coming into his 9th season (aged 27)
- Highest average EVER only 103 (back in 2015)
- Averaged 97 last year (relatively low ceiling)

For $566k, you'd be wanting at least a 105+ average from here on out, which is definitely possible, but doesn't necessarily seem a value option.
I’ve looked at him too. Without Heppell, he’ll go well. He plays outside.
my only concern is the sharing of midfield with McGrath and Merrett.

His Rd5 score was without Merrett
 
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I’ve looked at him too. Without Heppell, he’ll go well. He plays outside.
my only concern is the sharing of midfield with McGrath and Merrett.

His Rd5 score was without Merrett
I was wondering if Merrett was why some might be holding off this week, as that seemed the most obvious candidate.
 
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The inconsistent scoring this year as highlighted by @Ben's Beasts is a concern, but regarding these - the big knock on Shiel has always been his endurance. It was the reason he never cemented himself in the midfield rotation at GWS as more than a burst player. It looks like reduced quarters has provided him a one off chance for improvement because instead of being sheltered up forward or on the bench for a percentage of time, he can play through the middle for the same amount of time but overall a higher percentage of the game.
Also his disposal is horrendous... Has slightly improved, but he's essentially Treloar of 2 years ago... Went at 60% last round I believe?!
So if he's not being effective outside of that then that's where the points are probably dropping off?!
 
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Yeo could be a great pick once consistency is proven ie another 100+ this week would be sufficient for me to bring him in.
As Spiff pointed out he seems to be a slow starter (there are players like that as we know) but come home with a wet sail - good value now he's lower in price.
Can take the risk now or pay a little more later.
I remember that Adam Goodes in his prime was a leading example of this.

Would start slowly and then go BANG!

I’m likely taking the same approach with Yeo. A 110+ this week and I likely jump on next week.
Agree! That’s my plan as well with Yeo, wait a week he won’t raise much in price if he were to score 100 +
Has he actually started slow? Scored a ton in Rd 1, and then he (along with many Eagles) have been very average... They win, he scores well? Not sure on the correlation from past years, but I think he's a lock for me... I hear the waiting a week, but guess just got to weigh up if there's point lost by not having him?
 
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Has he actually started slow? Scored a ton in Rd 1, and then he (along with many Eagles) have been very average... They win, he scores well? Not sure on the correlation from past years, but I think he's a lock for me... I hear the waiting a week, but guess just got to weigh up if there's point lost by not having him?
Yep, when hes playing the worst team in the league, you don't hesitate, I think 110+ is coming, and the money saved over me getting Greenwood can go on an upgrade next week.
 
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https://www.afl.com.au/news/462397/in-the-mix-who-s-pushing-for-selection-in-round-six-

In the mix: Who's pushing for selection in round six?
Who's knocking on the selectors' door? Who's coming back from injury? And who's under the pump?
By Staff writers - 3 hrs ago



The Crows will have a revamped set-up in attack with Darcy Fogarty (shoulder) ruled out again and former captain Taylor Walker (knee) to miss 1-2 weeks. Tyson Stengle has served his four-game disciplinary suspension and performed well in last week's scratch match, so will be in contention for a call-up. Andrew McPherson is another chance in defence, while Riley Knight continues to build up his match conditioning. Elliott Himmelberg and Fischer McAsey, both dropped last week, remain in the mix.

Verdict: Stengle to come straight in for Lachlan Murphy, who has been suspended from last week. Himmelberg could come back to replace Walker. - Callum Twomey



Captain Dayne Zorko has recovered quicker than expected and will only need to pass training to prove he's over a calf strain. He would appear the likely replacement for Cam Ellis-Yolmen. If Zorko doesn't get up, Ely Smith could be considered for a debut. Given the five-day break, there will be several sore bodies, but Fagan has proven he's willing to back in a winning line-up. Callum Ah Chee was quiet but should be retained, while Ryan Lester and Tom Berry did enough. Alex Witherden continues to push for a recall and Mitch Hinge, Allen Christensen, Keidean Coleman and Rhys Mathieson aren't far away.

Verdict: Zorko in for Ellis-Yolmen. - Mitch Cleary



The Blues will finally regain Zac Fisher, who was set to return from a syndesmosis injury last week before being ruled out at the last minute due to a bout of gastro. Jack Silvagni should also recover from a fractured rib. Sam Philp looks set to make way, having only been a late inclusion for last week's loss to the Saints, while Jack Newnes is another who could see his spot come under the microscope after a quiet couple of weeks. Could the Blues even consider resting Eddie Betts, as they manage the veteran through the season?

Verdict: Expect Fisher and Silvagni to return from respective injury setbacks for the clash with the Dogs, with Philp and either Newnes or Betts to make way. - Riley Beveridge



The Pies will have to restructure their forward line, with Jordan De Goey set to miss Friday night's clash with the Hawks having broken the AFL's quarantine protocols while being investigated for an indecent assault charge. They could either go tall, and opt for Darcy Cameron, or small, with Josh Thomas set to put his hat in the ring for a recall. Mason Cox was quiet last week, held to just two disposals, but looks set to be given more time having only just been recalled to the senior team. Tyler Brown was also well held, with Brayden Sier in contention for his first appearance of the season should Nathan Buckley look to beef up his midfield.

Verdict: Thomas to replace De Goey, with Sier on standby for Tyler Brown. - Riley Beveridge



Zach Merrett is an automatic inclusion after serving his one-week suspension, but will the Bombers make more unforced changes after last week's win over Collingwood? Conor McKenna performed well in his first game back in last week's scrimmage with the Pies, and his inclusion as a half-forward would release Orazio Fantasia back to the forward line. Aaron Francis could also return after missing last week with back spasms. Matt Guelfi, Ned Cahill and Dylan Clarke are others in with a shot. Tom Bellchambers was managed last week but his ruck replacement Andrew Phillips should hold his spot, however the Bombers will need to cover for the injured Jake Stringer (ankle) in attack.

Verdict: Merrett, McKenna and Francis to come in with Stringer to miss and Jayden Laverde and David Zaharakis, who found only two disposals last week, left out. - Callum Twomey



The Dockers will make at least three changes for Saturday's clash with St Kilda after Reece Conca (hamstring), Jesse Hogan (calf) and Griffin Logue (toe) all suffered injuries in their first win of the season against Adelaide. Travis Colyer was a late out with a migraine and was replaced by Taylin Duman, but will be available for selection, as will Brennan Cox (hip) and superstar skipper Nat Fyfe, who has made a quick recovery from his hamstring injury. Blake Acres impressed on the wing in Sunday's reserves clash with the Crows and will put his hand up for a Freo debut.

Verdict: If passed fit, Fyfe, Acres, Cox and Colyer in for Conca, Hogan, Logue and Duman. Liam Henry to build minutes in Friday's reserves scratch match with Gold Coast. - Chris Corre



The Cats have admitted they should've been more proactive in resting Gary Ablett last year. So, off a five-day break following game 350, will this be the week? Lachie Fogarty is a like-for-like, while Sam Simpson, James Parsons and Brad Close are in the frame given Tom Atkins will miss again. Harry Taylor returned last week after being managed and, while he may not be a lock anymore, will be needed to contend with Lions talls Oscar McInerney, Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay. The Cats are desperate to get Lachie Henderson into the side but who he replaces will be a tough call as long as Jed Bews (ankle) proves his fitness. Jordan Clark continues to bang down the door, but spots are at a premium. With a number of players sore, Jack Steven might be a consideration for a rest after a limited preparation.

Verdict: Fogarty in for Ablett. - Mitch Cleary



The Suns will need to replace first-year sensation Matt Rowell as he deals with his shoulder injury from last week's loss to Geelong, but it's hard to see too many more changes given they performed solidly against the Cats on the road. Brayden Fiorini could come back in the side as Rowell's replacement, while youngsters Sam Flanders and Izak Rankine continue to press claims for a debut. If Gold Coast is keen to change its forward mix, Peter Wright and Josh Corbett will be a chance from outside last week's 22.

Verdict: Fiorini in for Rowell. - Callum Twomey



Callan Ward could come back into the Giants' midfield after being a late out last week due to soreness. But there will also be others on the club's mind despite a strong win over Hawthorn on Sunday. Jy Caldwell dominated in the Giants' practice game with four goals from the midfield, with Zac Langdon, Bobby Hill and Sam Jacobs among the other strong performers.

Verdict: Tom Sheridan seems likely to make way for Ward if the former co-captain is ready for a return to action. Brent Daniels could also be under some pressure after only six disposals and one tackle last week. - Callum Twomey
 
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Injured pair Mitch Lewis and Jack Scrimshaw are certain outs, meaning at least two spots will be up for grabs. We can safely assume Jon Patton will replace Lewis in attack but it's not as clear which direction the Hawks will go to cover Scrimshaw. They could opt for defender Harry Morrison or look to bolster another position, given they already have enough backline options. That could bring demoted forward Ollie Hanrahan back into the frame, or midfielders such as James Cousins and Finn Maginness might be considered.

Verdict: Patton and Morrison for Lewis and Scrimshaw. - Marc McGowan



The Demons went unchanged into the Richmond game but were dogged by the same problem of poor kicking inside 50. Harley Bennell won 30-plus possessions and laid six tackles in the reserves scratch match and seems certain to be recalled. Sam Weideman was prominent in attack and would provide Melbourne's senior side with a second tall option, alongside Tom McDonald. Neville Jetta and Oscar McDonald are also pushing hard but Nathan Jones (soreness) sat out the practice game. Alex Neal-Bullen put his case forward as well. Joel Smith, Jayden Hunt, Jay Lockhart, Jake Melksham and rookie Trent Rivers could be vulnerable. It would be a bold call to drop Jack Viney, even after his eight turnovers against the Tigers.

Verdict: Bennell, Jetta, McDonald and Weideman for Hunt, Lockhart, Smith and Rivers. - Marc McGowan



So much depends on injuries. The Roos have decisions to make on gun onballers Ben Cunnington (back), Shaun Higgins (knee) and Jack Ziebell (hamstring). Ziebell should return but Cunnington, in particular, seems in doubt. Tarryn Thomas (concussion) will have a full week to recover. Majak Daw is the wildcard and his return might be as a forward instead of down back, to support Ben Brown, at Tristan Xerri's expense. Bailey Scott was a strong performer again and must be getting close to a recall. Jamie Macmillan and Aaron Hall are under pressure. Sam Durdin might be a defensive option.

Verdict: Hard to know, based on who is fit but: Ziebell, Daw and Scott for Cunnington, Xerri and Macmillan. - Marc McGowan



The Power might have fallen to their first defeat of the season on Saturday night, but don't expect Ken Hinkley to change what had proved to be a winning formula. Ryan Burton was close to a return from a sprained knee last week and should play against the Giants on Sunday. Kane Farrell had been his replacement a fortnight ago and now might find himself on the outer again after a quiet couple of weeks. An undersized defence was exposed against the Lions, which could put the 195cm Jarrod Lienert back in the frame. Don't expect to see Xavier Duursma return from a hamstring injury this week.

Verdict: One change, with Burton returning for Farrell. - Riley Beveridge



Expect the Tigers to make at least five changes for Sunday's clash against Sydney at the Gabba. Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards decided against going into hub life, while Trent Cotchin (hamstring), Dion Prestia (ankle) and Toby Nankervis (ankle) all picked up injuries on the weekend. Tom Lynch is hopeful of playing despite having surgery on a broken hand, but appears doubtful. Ivan Soldo is the logical replacement for Nankervis, while Jack Graham, Marlion Pickett, Jack Ross, Shai Bolton and Sydney Stack will all be in the mix. Don't discount Pat Naish for a spot on half-back, while Thomson Dow will be considered for his debut.

Verdict: Soldo, Graham, Stack, Pickett, Ross and Bolton for Nankervis, Cotchin, Houli, Edwards, Prestia and Lynch. - Ben Sutton



After two impressive weeks, the Saints will be keen not to tinker with a winning formula off an eight-day break. Dan Hannebery will miss at least three weeks with his hamstring setback, but that opens the door for Zak Jones' return after his own hamstring tightness. Paddy Ryder was overlooked on balance last week, while Jack Sinclair, Nick Hind, Matt Parker and potential debutant Ryan Byrnes are impressing at scratch match level. Josh Battle has done little wrong and is playing the back-up ruck role, while fringe forwards Jonathon Marsh and Dean Kent performed well against the Blues.

Verdict: Jones in for Hannebery. - Mitch Cleary



The Swans have already announced top-five selection Dylan Stephens and fellow 2019 draftee Chad Warner will make their AFL debut this weekend. Kaiden Brand also seems likely to come in for fellow defender Lewis Melican, who has a groin problem. Ben Ronke (back) is another enforced out, while Sam Gray and Colin O'Riordan could again be feeling the pressure to retain their spots. Callum Sinclair (knee) is likely to miss again but Lewis Taylor and Robbie Fox – dropped last week – could force their way back in.

Verdict: Warner, Stephens and Brand for Ronke, O'Riordan and Melican. - Marc McGowan



Two spots are open with hamstring injuries to skipper Luke Shuey and forward Jamaine Jones. If the Eagles are looking for a pure midfielder to replace Shuey, and Jarrod Brander doesn't overcome a hip injury, Brayden Ainsworth could come into the frame. If they re-shuffle a defender into the midfield mix, Lewis Jetta may be considered to return after being dropped. Jack Petruccelle is the obvious replacement for Jones, however Jarrod Cameron is working to full fitness and will be in the mix. Last week's inclusions Oscar Allen and Jake Waterman impressed and it will be hard to see either falling out.

Verdict: Ainsworth and Petruccelle in for Shuey and Jones. - Mitch Cleary



Lin Jong (ankle syndesmosis), Bailey Smith (concussion) and Laitham Vandermeer (concussion) all look like forced changes for the Dogs. Lachie Hunter is available to return after his suspension and the Bulldogs have brought their full list to Queensland so they'll have plenty of other options to look at. Roarke Smith, Will Hayes, Matt Suckling and Cody Weightman would have to be in contention.

Verdict: Suckling, Hunter and R. Smith replace Jong, Vandermeer and B. Smith - Jourdan Canil
 
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Unless Brander or Noble are back, I'm still harbouring a donut in defense which could be 2 if Rivers doesn't hold his spot.

I think my trades will have to revolve around that. Due to there not being a DEF rookie putting there hand up, I'll probably have to double upgrade which might mean moving on Pitto and Rowell

Pitto > Haynes (B Williams to R3)
Rowell > Laird (Brander to F8)

Leaves my defense as:

Docherty, Haynes, Laird, Sicily, Ridley, Starc (Rivers, Noble)

Feels like such a waste having the 2 best cash cows move on in the same week, and not to what I would call "Super-premiums".
 
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Unless Brander or Noble are back, I'm still harbouring a donut in defense which could be 2 if Rivers doesn't hold his spot.

I think my trades will have to revolve around that. Due to there not being a DEF rookie putting there hand up, I'll probably have to double upgrade which might mean moving on Pitto and Rowell

Pitto > Haynes (B Williams to R3)
Rowell > Laird (Brander to F8)

Leaves my defense as:

Docherty, Haynes, Laird, Sicily, Ridley, Starc (Rivers, Noble)

Feels like such a waste having the 2 best cash cows move on in the same week, and not to what I would call "Super-premiums".
Hamill is still only $ 146 k.
 
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The first part of this is a good argument for buying him.

The second part almost confirms for me you should wait a week - buying smart is going to be the key? So I would be better off missing his first big score, whilst his breakeven is 98, and seeing that he still can go big. I then would pick him up at a similar price, as he isn't going up much, and a very low breakeven.
If he fails this week, against the hapless crows as you put it, then I would likely not want him anyway? I dodge a bullet
Here are my two cents about a few players that have been talked about (as trade in targets)

Yeo - I'm an Eagles fan, but I'm going to be honest. For someone that has scored 57, 110, 71, 59, and 121 (not even that big), trade in at your own peril. Yes he is under-priced but his scores are hugely reflected as such. Got a big kiss on the cheek last week with Nic Nat playing against Allir/no ruckman (pretty much a no contest), which ended up being a blow out. He was sharking a lot of the ball up's, and honestly, I would expect him to do so. BE of 98, you can afford to wait an extra week (unless you're certain he's going to go big this week, yes, even against Adelaide). A wait, and see if his form improves. Ask yourself this question, do you think he'll average / be in the top 10 mid's for this season from this point onwards? I could think of 5-6 others I'd place ahead of him

Shiel - For $566k, you'd there are a lot more options, Danger/Macrae/Tmitch, too many to speak. His score last week got heavily inflated by his goal in crunch time. Not surprised to see his score go up when his main competitor (Zerrett) is out due to suspension. Personally rate 4-5 mid's ahead of him for around the same price. A no from me.


Just my two cents, got one call right (and one wrong) last week with Ridley & Bont.

Personally going Rowell > Maynard, Budarick > Aarts this week


EDIT: Posting what I wrote about Ridley & Bont last week haha

I know this sounds pretty depressing but has anyone considered Bont’s 166 as a victim of circumstance?
I watched the game:
- Sydney sent Hewett (probably their best tagger) to tag Macrae from the bounce
- Bont wasn’t tagged (at least in the first half)
- Naughton got injured, so Bont had no choice but to play key forward from that point onwards. A few massive contested marks boosted his score first half (112 roughly to be exact)
- Mills sent to tag Bont second half. Damage already done - finished with about 50 points in the second half. Pretty quiet to be honest


Consider the following circumstances:
1. Sydney had actually tagged Bont from the beginning (like most teams do anyway)
2. Naughton hadn’t gotten injured


Would he have scored so highly? I would say he would have scored 100-110 - not sure if so many of you would be in a hurry to bring him in with that score (considering a few of you wanted to trade him out last week & week before)

I personally don’t think so, and I feel as if trading him in is chasing points (I don’t have him, and won’t be trading him in all season)

Edit: I’ll happily eat my words if he starts hitting 140+ a few weeks in a row
Not sure where the hype is coming from by staying away from Ridley. I’m a little confused why he is so highly touted (currently at 410k now). Off limited data is he playing that well to justify him as a keeper (or top 6 defender) - someone mentioned him as a calmer version of Sicily. If you had him from 2 rounds ago I’d say probably worth it

I personally think that there are myriad options - Houli/Laird/Sicily/Haynes/Daniel/Crisp/Hurn that aren’t that much more expensive than Ridley but almost a better guarantee (at least in my opiniin) to be a top 6 defender by the end of the year (I have Lloyd/Doch/Howe)

Each to their own I suppose but I think I’ve just provided reasoning as to why I won’t be picking Ridley this season
 
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Looks like there will be no way I will get to full premium team, given the state of my rookies so looking at:

Neale and Buderick to J Kelly and Yeo

I guess the hope is I loose 10-15 points on Neale, but again 40+ on Yeo.

I feel I might have to pull a few risky moves to get anywhere near full premium team.
I think I've changed my mind, lol

Brown to Bennell and Buderick to Whitfield now more likely.

Sit on Rowell for now and start Bennell to cover for now.

Gives me another week to assess Yeo and gets a rookie of field whist keeping Neale for now.
 

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I would say with a 98 BE, it’s definitely worth waiting one week on Yeo.

I traded in Bont last round and boy I can tell you, a week makes a massive difference. Absolutely no one lining up to trade in Bont despite a massive 166 the round prior.
 
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Interestingly Yeo is averaging 90.25 since the resumption , not sure Round 1 scores are as important this season as they were that long ago.

Out of form mid about to return home , previous seasons of 105 + , under $ 500k I know what I will be doing next week (team selections permitting).

just my 2 cents worth

not sure how he scores against Fyfe & Danger though
 
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Yeo getting more inside time next few weeks with shuey out is something to consider he seems the logical replacement/candidate to me. Plus playing the bottom side with NN hopefully sending it down his throat... If ever the stars were to align surely it's this week. I won't be trading him in however.

NB haven't checked any of his current stats to see Cba's etc etc, can just see this helping him out purely based on guesswork and observation.
 
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