Strategy Round 7: Trades

Ben's Beasts

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Interesting. Seen conflicting opinions on how Simpson‘s price will change given he already had a 6 game history with a 28 as his last (and only) score in 2018.

Be nice to know for sure as some estimates have him increasing less than Rankine (similar to Day / McPherson) if they all pump out 70’s this week.

Be nice to know for sure when weighing up which of the rookies to pass on this week but I’m not sure how.
It’s just the score projections that have affected his expected price rise. Because Simpson had previously scored poorly in games, he has a much lower projected score than Rankine who is projected to score at 111 again.

If both score 80 this week then they will almost have identical price rises. Simpson would rise marginally more due to his first score of 112 v Rankine’s 111.
 

Goodie's Guns

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Interesting. Seen conflicting opinions on how Simpson‘s price will change given he already had a 6 game history with a 28 as his last (and only) score in 2018.

Be nice to know for sure as some estimates have him increasing less than Rankine (similar to Day / McPherson) if they all pump out 70’s this week.

Be nice to know for sure when weighing up which of the rookies to pass on this week but I’m not sure how.
Here's a start, provided by Rowsus in the opening post to the thread...

Apart from Sam Simpson, who are you looking at using in trades for Round 7?

Sam Simpson - Geelong - Mid $123,900
Rnd 6 score 112 - Rnd 7 BE -64

Scenario based on his score (assuming he plays!) next week.

Scores 50 - price $174,500 (+$50,600) - BE -62
Scores 60 - price $178,900 (+$56,000) - BE -69
Scores 70 - price $183,300 (+$61,000) - BE -76
Scores 80 - price $187,700 (+$65,400) - BE -84
Scores 90 - price $192,100 (+$69,800) - BE -91


On The Chopping Block

Starcevich - now $277,700 (-$17,700), BE 92, last 2 scores: 38, 31
Taylor - now $276,000 (+$6,500), BE 45, last 2 scores 100, 15
Budarick - now $229,300 (-$4,200), BE 53, last 2 scores 28, 52
Pittonet - now $434,200 (-$1,000), BE 94, last 2 scores 83, 75

Target Prems

Dangerfield - now $585,500 (+$28,900), BE 90, season scores: 83, 101, 75, 140, 104, 146
Fyfe - now $639,000 (-$30,600), BE 215, season scores: 110, 143, 166, 71, DNP, 84
Docherty - now $571,300 (-$5,900), BE 194, season scores: 117, 93, 122, 185, 89, 49
 
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You're spot on. Basically your exact post is what I'm currently discussing with a work colleague who also has Ceglar.

It's a real tough one, can he turn it around after Gawn this week or is this what we're going to get week in, week out with Big Boy sharing the ruck duties?

I'm so torn and probably won't make up my mind until just before the trades for this round need to be completed.
I don't think I can trade Ceglar at this stage unless he is dropped for some reason as I have too many other holes to fix. I think I would rather just upgrade around him and hope he comes good.

THis week I will likely have 3 of King (Crows) Rankine (Suns) Ceglar (Dees) and Taylor (Tigers). At this point I am thinking of fielding King and Rankine and looping Taylor with Ceglar (using Sturt)
 
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You're spot on. Basically your exact post is what I'm currently discussing with a work colleague who also has Ceglar.

It's a real tough one, can he turn it around after Gawn this week or is this what we're going to get week in, week out with Big Boy sharing the ruck duties?

I'm so torn and probably won't make up my mind until just before the trades for this round need to be completed.
I don't think I can trade Ceglar at this stage unless he is dropped for some reason as I have too many other holes to fix. I think I would rather just upgrade around him and hope he comes good.

THis week I will likely have 3 of King (Crows) Rankine (Suns) Ceglar (Dees) and Taylor (Tigers). At this point I am thinking of fielding King and Rankine and looping Taylor with Ceglar (using Sturt)
Wouldn’t mind if they give him the week off (managed) to freshen up and then bring him back the following week against Sinclair/Mclean s a recharged number 1 ruck.
 
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Wouldn’t mind if they give him the week off (managed) to freshen up and then bring him back the following week against Sinclair/McClean s a recharged number 1 ruck.
I think one ruck this week against Gawn is not a bad idea, and McEvoy is clearly the form ruck. If he happens to get injured, just concede the hitouts and have an extra player around the fall of the ball.

(Not going to happen. I assume O'Brien or someone would cover).
 
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24 hours to reset and refresh

doubt I will even have 22 on the field this week so :-

Taylor - > Rankine
Starcevich - > Doedee

monitor Hurn back at home

Round 8

T Brown - > Bailey Smith

Duncan , Gaff , Parker all on the BE watchlist
 
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Have to trade Young so I can’t get Yeo this week looking at Pittonet to Rankine and Young to Daniel or Haynes, unfortunately I will have to hold Starcevich for one more week.

I’m really Hoping that Noble and/or Brander get recalled as I could go Young to Yeo this week.

Only 14k between them and I’m a bit torn, Haynes looks better lately but Daniel has a bit more history
 
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Simpson kinda obvious in right? But I'm leaning towards keeping warm bodies in play so may keep Buda and Taylor and move on Pittonet from R3 instead. Means Comben moves back to R3 and I get some cover up forward (assuming Brander still not playing).

Thinking if Starc is named I'll keep him. Seems more likely to keep getting games than Noble and that bench cover is like gold this year. So Noble - Houston probably (could be Will Day but I am SICK of this one-game bubble trainwreck). Gives me Doc, Sicily, Ridley, Mills, Houston, Doedee down back which will do for now.
 
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Looking to do 1 up / 1 down this week.
Either Whitfield or Mills/Ryan

Incomming rookie depending on which line needs the most help.

All plans are dependent on which of my current cash cows/ lame ducks are named this week.
While I've managed to avoid any donuts so far this season, a lack of bench cover has meant I've had to take some pretty rubbish scores.
 
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Simpson kinda obvious in right? But I'm leaning towards keeping warm bodies in play so may keep Buda and Taylor and move on Pittonet from R3 instead. Means Comben moves back to R3 and I get some cover up forward (assuming Brander still not playing).

Thinking if Starc is named I'll keep him. Seems more likely to keep getting games than Noble and that bench cover is like gold this year. So Noble - Houston probably (could be Will Day but I am SICK of this one-game bubble trainwreck). Gives me Doc, Sicily, Ridley, Mills, Houston, Doedee down back which will do for now.
I agree with keeping warm bodies in play, as the future is so unpredictable, that playing safe seems to be the right move.
 
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Looks good.
I'm tossing up between Day and McPherson but leaning to McPherson. You obviously prefer Day. I think the safer job security is leaning me to McPherson.
Not sold on Day yet, especially his JS. Will need to see teams drop, also there's talk of Impey coming in as well as possibly Hatley.
 
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Looks good.
I'm tossing up between Day and McPherson but leaning to McPherson. You obviously prefer Day. I think the safer job security is leaning me to McPherson.
It's just so hard, whether it's JS, injury proneness, scoring ability, all 4 main 1 game rookies have plus & minus points.
Trying to base things on just 1 game is a bit of a lottery.

I got stung by Aarts last week, maybe he comes good this week, maybe he gets dropped, who knows.

If i can, I'll try and roll with Simpson, but Rankin, Day or McPherson are all still possibilities.
 
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It's just so hard, whether it's JS, injury proneness, scoring ability, all 4 main 1 game rookies have plus & minus points.
Trying to base things on just 1 game is a bit of a lottery.

I got stung by Aarts last week, maybe he comes good this week, maybe he gets dropped, who knows.

If i can, I'll try and roll with Simpson, but Rankin, Day or McPherson are all still possibilities.
Richmond were poop last week, I expect Aarts to hold his place since Richmond only brought a small squad on AFL HQ advice.
 
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In the mix: Who's pushing for selection in round seven?
Who's knocking on the selectors' door? Who's coming back from injury? And who's under the pump?
By Staff writers - 2 hrs ago
https://www.afl.com.au/news/465313/in-the-mix-who-s-pushing-for-selection-in-round-seven-



After another dispiriting loss last week to West Coast, the winless Crows face more selection issues with captain Rory Sloane ruled out for at least a month after undergoing hand surgery. His replacement isn't obvious, although Paul Seedsman could return after being named an emergency last week. Lachie Murphy has served his one-game suspension so is available and seems likely to get a recall, while Myles Poholke will also be in contention.

Verdict: Seedsman to come back to add some experience to the Crows' midfield in lieu of Sloane, while Murphy should return, potentially at the expense of Shane McAdam or Tyson Stengle, who were both quiet last week. - Callum Twomey


With Hugh McCluggage (shoulder) and Mitch Robinson (corked quad) expected to be available, there should be no forced changes due to injury. There was plenty of players below their best against Geelong, and although Chris Fagan has proved to be incredibly loyal, a couple would be testing his patience. Stefan Martin was well down against the Cats but has a ton of runs on the board, while Grant Birchall also battled. Sam Skinner is knocking on the door if a tall is required, while Noah Answerth or Alex Witherden are next in-line for a defensive role.

Verdict: Don't expect Brisbane to make any changes after one loss. - Michael Whiting


The only concerns stemming from Sunday night's impressive victory over the Western Bulldogs were minor injuries to co-captain Patrick Cripps (shoulder) and former skipper Marc Murphy (hip). Scans will determine whether the important midfield duo will be fit to meet Port Adelaide this weekend. Zac Fisher and Jack Silvagni will be on standby should either fail to get up, with Paddy Dow and Caleb Marchbank probably another week away from returning from respective knee setbacks. However, should Cripps and Murphy both be deemed fit, expect Fisher and Silvagni to be forced to bide their time on the sidelines.

Verdict: An unchanged team following a pretty complete victory over the Dogs. - Riley Beveridge


Star forward Jordan De Goey has served his quarantine period and will likely return to the side immediately. Expect him to replace youngster Will Kelly, who has been sent for surgery on a nasty elbow injury suffered on his AFL debut in last week's victory over Hawthorn. Josh Daicos should recover from a rolled ankle to be in the frame to meet Geelong on Thursday night, but might be forced to wait for his opportunity should Jamie Elliott (shin) be deemed fit to play. John Noble will be on standby for Matt Scharenberg (ribs) in defence.

Verdict: One change, with De Goey replacing the injured Kelly. - Riley Beveridge


With Dylan Shiel missing through suspension and Conor McKenna racing time to be available because of his finger injury, the Bombers face a couple of changes this week. Mason Redman was surprisingly dropped last round, so could come back if McKenna misses, or the Bombers might consider Aaron Francis for that spot in defence. To replace Shiel the Bombers could look at Dylan Clarke, Matt Guelfi and even possible debutant Ned Cahill, who booted five goals in the Bombers' scratch match last week.

Verdict: Redman appears most likely to come into the side to fill one of the vacancies, while Francis will also be close. - Callum Twomey


The Dockers will give Sean Darcy (concussion) and Hayden Young (ankle) every chance to take on West Coast after suffering injuries in the massive comeback win against St Kilda. Brennan Cox was a late out due to his hip injury but will add some much-needed height back into the undersized defence. Taylin Duman was his replacement and impressed with a game-high nine intercepts. Superstar skipper Nat Fyfe is confident he will face the Eagles despite picking up a cork in his left leg and feeling some awareness in the right hamstring that caused him to miss a game. Travis Colyer was quiet in his return, while draftee Liam Henry impressed while playing a half in the reserves. Is this the week Connor Blakely finally returns to the line-up or will someone like Mitch Crowden be given an opportunity?

Verdict: Young to miss with his injury, with Cox to come into the side. If Darcy fails to be cleared, Rory Lobb will lead the ruck and the versatile Blakely will come in and cause a reshuffle of the magnets. - Chris Correia


Quinton Narkle has been ruled out with his hamstring and Mitch Duncan is more unlikely than likely to face the Pies. Jack Steven has been assured of a return after being managed last round, while Jordan Clark, James Parsons, Charlie Constable and Lachie Fogarty continue to press their claims after strong showings in a scratch match last week against Collingwood. If Gary Ablett wasn't rested off a five-day break, then expect him to front up off a seven-day break, especially with 11 days to rest after the clash with the Pies before facing Fremantle. Hard to see any others, including returning midfielder Sam Simpson, being dropped after a huge second half win over Brisbane.

Verdict: Steven in for Narkle. Should Duncan miss, as expected, then Clark to replace him. - Mitch Cleary


Two losses on the trot for the Suns but they've been competitive in both. Darcy Macpherson (four disposals) was well down against the Demons and has been struggling of late. Wil Powell was dropped the previous week and is the only spare midfielder in Gold Coast's Sydney hub, so Macpherson should get another match to prove his form. Josh Corbett or Peter Wright could come into consideration if Stuart Dew really wants to extend Sydney's short defence.

Verdict: No changes this week. - Michael Whiting


Tim Taranto seems likely to make his return to the top level this week and should come straight in for former co-captain Callan Ward, who will miss four-to-six weeks with a knee injury. Jye Caldwell and Zac Langdon are others who could be a chance to come in to the line-up, and it will be interesting to see how Leon Cameron changes things up after last week’s loss to Port Adelaide.

Verdict: With Daniel Lloyd suffering delayed concussion against the Power, he will need to be passed fit to take on Brisbane this week. Caldwell could jump back in the side for Lloyd with Taranto to be included for Ward. - Callum Twomey
 
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We know Jon Patton will be out and Shaun Burgoyne will come back in. Harry Jones is another likely inclusion. Beyond that, there is intrigue in what Alastair Clarkson does. The twist is Mitch Lewis (hip) could be available if he negotiates training – and looms as Patton's replacement. Lewis' status may impact on ruckman Jon Ceglar, who's had a tough season in the No.1 role. The Hawks may opt to switch Ben McEvoy into the ruck full-time again, which would release him from the defensive role he's already played less in the past fortnight. That could see Ceglar dropped and possibly open the door for ex-Bombers defender Michael Hartley to play. Jarman Impey (knee) is set to play another scratch match in his recovery. Elsewhere, Tom Scully's had a lean month and is vulnerable. They also haven't sorted out their small forward dynamic, with Paul Puopolo and Josh Morris tried last week. Could Darren Minchington or Dylan Moore be next – with Conor Nash injured – and how far away is Finn Maginness?

Verdict: Lewis, Jones, Burgoyne and Hartley in, and Patton, Scully, Morris and Ceglar out. - Marc McGowan


Simon Goodwin spoke about wanting to settle the line-up a fortnight ago but was effectively forced into change last week after a disappointing showing against Richmond. Recruit Adam Tomlinson was the highest-profile casualty of that and it'll be interesting to see whether he comes back this week. Jay Lockhart is under pressure to keep his spot, while Angus Brayshaw might be nervous if Goodwin wants to make another statement. Draftee Trent Rivers did little wrong in his stint in the seniors, while Nathan Jones missed the club's scratch match two weekends ago with soreness and is still trying to get back in. Mitch Brown is the likeliest option if Tom McDonald (eye) can't play, but Luke Jackson may also be considered.

Verdict: Not like-for-like, but Tomlinson in for Lockhart, or possibly unchanged. - Marc McGowan


Captain Jack Ziebell (hamstring) is on track to be available and Jed Anderson (quad) hopes to return after being a late withdrawal on Saturday night. Ben Cunnington (back) is unlikely, and Nick Larkey (foot) and Luke Davies-Uniacke (groin) will probably play another scratch match. Tarryn Thomas (ankle) looks set to miss some time, while Marley Williams, Tom Campbell and Paul Ahern are vulnerable. Mason Wood put his hand up with four goals, and Majak Daw is also pushing for selection. Aiden Bonar – in a new defensive role – and key backs Ben McKay and Sam Durdin continue to receive praise. Kayne Turner's not ready yet after only a couple of scratch matches post-injury.

Verdict: Ziebell, Anderson and Daw in; Thomas, Williams and Campbell out. - Marc McGowan


There will be a couple of enforced changes for Port Adelaide this weekend, with Brad Ebert's one-match suspension and Cam Sutcliffe's hamstring injury leaving Ken Hinkley with no option but to tinker with a winning formula. Xavier Duursma is set to return imminently from a hamstring setback, but could the loss of two tough midfielders put Tom Rockliff back in the frame? The experienced midfielder was sensationally axed for last weekend's victory over Greater Western Sydney due to a run of poor form. Steven Motlop could also miss the clash with Carlton due to a concussion, with Riley Bonner and Sam Mayes likely on standby.

Verdict: At least two changes, with Duursma and Rockliff to return for Sutcliffe and Ebert. Put Mayes on standby, depending on how Motlop recovers this week. - Riley Beveridge


Skipper Trent Cotchin looks likely to miss another week with his hamstring injury, but David Astbury is a sneaky chance of returning despite undergoing knee surgery just two weeks ago. Riley Collier-Dawkins will be in the frame for his debut, while Jack Ross and Sydney Stack remain on the fringe. Daniel Rioli was quiet against the Swans and Marlion Pickett again struggled to make an impact.

Verdict: Collier-Dawkins to replace Pickett and, if fit, Astbury to replace Noah Balta. - Ben Sutton


Brett Ratten forecast change in a strong post-match press conference following the collapse against Fremantle. Ben Long will miss through suspension, while Jonathon Marsh (three disposals) and Dean Kent (seven) were quiet. Josh Battle was last man in and was serviceable but could be looked at. Potential debutant Ryan Byrnes is edging closer to selection, Nick Hind and Matthew Parker are in the frame, while Jack Sinclair can't be far from his first game of 2020. Paddy Ryder has missed three matches and will be considered. Jimmy Webster or Shane Savage are the like-for-like replacements for Long.

Verdict: Ryder, Sinclair and Byrnes in for Marsh, Kent and Long. Clark to move back and Byrnes to take his midfield minutes. - Mitch Cleary


There are a lot of moving parts at the Swans, with Isaac Heeney (ankle) and Josh Kennedy (knee) ruled out for the season and the next month respectively. Experienced talls Callum Sinclair (knee) and Sam Reid (calf) could both return this week, while Tom McCartin (concussion) is edging closer. Lewis Taylor and Justin McInerney have each played four times in 2020, while swingman Aliir Aliir came out late at the weekend. Much will depend on how young Sydney wants to go. Zac Foot and Elijah Taylor (four goals in scratch match) are showing promise at the lower level. Sam Gray was quiet again and could be feeling the heat.

Verdict: Sinclair, Taylor and McInerney replace Heeney, Kennedy and Gray. - Marc McGowan


All the focus will centre on whether Luke Shuey is fit to return from his hamstring. Should that be the case, last week's inclusion Brayden Ainsworth is the likely man to fall out. Jarrod Cameron (five disposals) was quiet on his return last week, but the Eagles are expected to stick with him as he builds to full match fitness. Brendon Ah Chee (six disposals) and Jake Waterman (seven) also had little impact. Lewis Jetta can't be forgotten after two weeks out, while rookie signing Nic Reid could be a left-field option after Jack Petruccelle's hamstring injury. If Shuey doesn't get up, Hamish Brayshaw could be another midfielder considered.

Verdict: Hard to see many changes off an eight-day break following a comprehensive win. If fit, Shuey in for Ainsworth. - Mitch Cleary


Hayden Crozier has served his one-match ban and should slot straight back into the side. Louis Butler found plenty of the footy, but his ball use was a little below where he may have liked. Josh Schache needs to really show something with Aaron Naughton out, but he managed just two disposals against the Blues. Lewis Young could slot in up forward but Beveridge might give Schache another chance. Sam Lloyd is also a chance to return earlier than expected from his collarbone injury.

Verdict: Crozier replaces Butler - Jourdan Canil
 
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