Strategy Round 8: Trades

[BigRuss]

Is he fit to play? I thought he was out with a broken toe?

I think you're right, have trades to burn so might just move him on, will make my team more enjoyable to look at if anything.

Was up for selection this week as far as I know, though I haven’t exactly been scouring the internet for Ceglar news to be fair.

Fair bit of value around the traps atm, moving him to just about anyone is an upgrade.

 

[Bermi]

Berni - to clarify an earlier comment, I think Houston played def in round 4 and round 5. This is looking at the heat map. System says he had 88% and 83% of possessions in the defensive half in those rounds. In round 6 it was 75% and round 7 it was 47%, however, round 6 his red heat map is between half back and wing rather than in the defence area.

Fanfooty pre loads positions in and doesn't always change them. Houston playing mids although defensive side would come up as defence still, yet the role can be different when he is in defence.

I choose him earlier in the year due to last years number where his mid games (last 4) were well above his def games.

I think Rocky out helps Houston as he becomes a more important connection player, bit like a Brodie Smith. Another player I had.

Have learnt (now) to back in fwds who go into the mids that are contested players (Greenwood, Petrock, Dunkley) rather than less contested beasts (Houston, Wingard, Smith).

Thanks for taking your time to help.
I can now see that heat maps are useful. I don't suppose there are any free sites that show players heat maps?

Good to know that I can't rely on Fanfooty listing players positions.

That makes a lot of sense, selecting contested beasts in the midfield.

I needed to get McAsey out of my starting 22 and I didn't want to replace him with another Rookie (which would have been Eggmoleese-Smith) and I liked Houston the best from the limited choice I had. I hope he continues scoring around the 100 SCpts.

 

[Bermi]

Is he fit to play? I thought he was out with a broken toe?

I think you're right, have trades to burn so might just move him on, will make my team more enjoyable to look at if anything.

Was up for selection this week as far as I know, though I haven’t exactly been scouring the internet for Ceglar news to be fair.

Fair bit of value around the traps atm, moving him to just about anyone is an upgrade.

I moved Ceglar out this round. He looked so out of form before the toe injury. Apparently Ceglar will have easier opponents in the future, but when McEvoy shared the ruck with Ceglar, it worked well. I fear that may continue in the future, so I have lost confidence in Ceglar.

 

[doc ron]

In a dilema for my 2nd trade this week. Just about set on bringing Simpson in for a much needed cash boost, however who to jettison for him is the issue. I could get rid of Serong who appears to have stagnated and has the round 10 bye. Or I get rid of Wingard who also has the same bye and is set to drop cash quickly with another ordinary performance. Wingard does have the luckless Swannies this arvo at the SCG and should see alot more of the ball you would think.

 

[THCLT]

In a dilema for my 2nd trade this week. Just about set on bringing Simpson in for a much needed cash boost, however who to jettison for him is the issue. I could get rid of Serong who appears to have stagnated and has the round 10 bye. Or I get rid of Wingard who also has the same bye and is set to drop cash quickly with another ordinary performance. Wingard does have the luckless Swannies this arvo at the SCG and should see alot more of the ball you would think.

I think you know the answer to your question, however, the question I have for you is Why is T Brown not a trade out option...?

 

[doc ron]

I think you know the answer to your question, however, the question I have for you is Why is T Brown not a trade out option...?

Honestly not sure as to the answer I'm leaning towards ditching Serong at the moment. Tyler Brown isn't doing any harm and could have been a loophole option if Buda had of put up a 85-90 score. With 3 trades next week Brown will go then to one of this weeks debutants probably.

 

[Herbie66]

Sorry Mr Worldwide but the time has come to part ways , thanks for the memories.

On a hunch I welcome Peter Ladhams to my team.

 

[Diabolical]

I have narrowed my targets for my second trade down to two, and I’m a bit torn.

Luke Ryan ~ $503k
Pros
- I avoid a donut this week
- He should average mid 90s
- A bit of a POD in 2.3% of teams
Cons
- I will have 8 players with R10 bye.
- There are other value options on the horizon if I wait

Versus

Christian Petracca ~ $543k
Pros
- He seems to have taken that next step
- I eliminate a negative POD and it will be now or never.
- Has already had his bye
Cons
- I’ll cop a defensive donut this week
- I’ll only benefit this week from the difference between his score and Rankine 56 (E) on my bench as I won’t loop Rankine if I take Trac.

So I guess I’m asking do the short term benefits of Ryan tip the scales his way or not?

 

[Darkie]

I have narrowed my targets for my second trade down to two, and I’m a bit torn.

Luke Ryan ~ $503k
Pros
- I avoid a donut this week
- He should average mid 90s
- A bit of a POD in 2.3% of teams
Cons
- I will have 8 players with R10 bye.
- There are other value options on the horizon if I wait

Versus

Christian Petracca ~ $543k
Pros
- He seems to have taken that next step
- I eliminate a negative POD and it will be now or never.
- Has already had his bye
Cons
- I’ll cop a defensive donut this week
- I’ll only benefit this week from the difference between his score and Rankine 56 (E) on my bench as I won’t loop Rankine if I take Trac.

So I guess I’m asking do the short term benefits of Ryan tip the scales his way or not?

Trac for me. Is definitely a top forward option and arguably around fair price, whereas Ryan is more like a D4 type option in my view, and Stewart etc could be cheap soon. The R10 bye squeeze provides an o***et for the donut as well.

Trac also very durable historically, and has the game in hand as discussed. Ryan is a good option, but I gather his role/scoring sometimes (not always) depends on the likes of Pearce and Hamling.

 

[Beg2Differ]

I am at a fork in the road in my trading decisions. Do I take the conventional route and trade out the maxed out rookies with good JS to maximise cash for future upgrades; or do I trade out lower value rookies who are currently not playing to maximise on-field representation in coming rounds.

I have 4 out of my 8 bench players currently not playing; McInerney, Rivers, Xerri and now SHill.

Contemplating trading out King (who is on the bench for me this week) for George even though he appears to have rolled gold JS and has been good for 50-60 points each week.

 

[Connoisseur]

I am at a fork in the road in my trading decisions. Do I take the conventional route and trade out the maxed out rookies with good JS to maximise cash for future upgrades; or do I trade out lower value rookies who are currently not playing to maximise on-field representation in coming rounds.

I have 4 out of my 8 bench players currently not playing; McInerney, Rivers, Xerri and now SHill.

Contemplating trading out King for George even though he appears to have rolled gold JS and has been good for 50-60 points each week.

Can you trade McInerney via a fwd/mid (Budarick,etc) instead of King?

 

[Beg2Differ]

Can you trade McInerney via a fwd/mid (Budarick,etc) instead of King?

Yes but that leaves me with $60k less in the bank and reduces quality of future upgrades. That is the very conundrum.

 

[Connoisseur]

Yes but that leaves me with $60k less in the bank and reduces quality of future upgrades. That is the very conundrum.

Would it be possible to post your team to further help with recommendations?

 

[aleceee]

I have narrowed my targets for my second trade down to two, and I’m a bit torn.

Luke Ryan ~ $503k
Pros
- I avoid a donut this week
- He should average mid 90s
- A bit of a POD in 2.3% of teams
Cons
- I will have 8 players with R10 bye.
- There are other value options on the horizon if I wait

Versus

Christian Petracca ~ $543k
Pros
- He seems to have taken that next step
- I eliminate a negative POD and it will be now or never.
- Has already had his bye
Cons
- I’ll cop a defensive donut this week
- I’ll only benefit this week from the difference between his score and Rankine 56 (E) on my bench as I won’t loop Rankine if I take Trac.

So I guess I’m asking do the short term benefits of Ryan tip the scales his way or not?

Saying what I've said about the value of the game in hand being overstated. I think Petracca is probably the better option, but it all depends on what you think they can average from here.

Personally I put Petracca at 105. This is probably slightly too high, but I am factoring in the game in hand that effectively adds 3-4 to his average. Bomber18 made a good point about this somewhere in the round 8 discussion. I would put Ryan around 95.

Firstly I would consider the immediate benefit of just this week.

Taking Petracca, you get Petracca (105) + Donut (0). Total=105.

Taking Ryan, you get Ryan (95) + Rankine (56). Total=151.

An estimated 46 points benefit this round. With 10 rounds to go, Petracca averaging ~10 ppg higher gives him a 100 point advantage.

This means Petracca wins my comparison by 54 points.

Obviously this is an extremely simple comparison and does not factor in many things, and also depends on what you believe each player will average from here.

Sorry for the long response, definitely could've given a one sentence answer.

 

[Diabolical]

Saying what I've said about the value of the game in hand being overstated. I think Petracca is probably the better option, but it all depends on what you think they can average from here.

Personally I put Petracca at 105. This is probably slightly too high, but I am factoring in the game in hand that effectively adds 3-4 to his average. Bomber18 made a good point about this somewhere in the round 8 discussion. I would put Ryan around 95.

Firstly I would consider the immediate benefit of just this week.

Taking Petracca, you get Petracca (105) + Donut (0). Total=105.

Taking Ryan, you get Ryan (95) + Rankine (56). Total=151.

An estimated 46 points benefit this round. With 10 rounds to go, Petracca averaging ~10 ppg higher gives him a 100 point advantage.

This means Petracca wins my comparison by 54 points.

Obviously this is an extremely simple comparison and does not factor in many things, and also depends on what you believe each player will average from here.

Sorry for the long response, definitely could've given a one sentence answer.

Thank you for taking the time for your considered response.

Your numbers a pretty close to what I have come up with.

One thing I’m battling with is how quickly things change from week to week this year, which has me looking more at immediate benefits. Could Trac get rested or get more time off the ball to keep him fresh during a period of condensed matches given Melbourne won’t get a bye? We won’t know the answer until if and when it happens.

 

[Grundogging]

Just went with Pittonet to Gawn to compliment Lynch to Rankine - probably needed another forward now that Devon is at F3 but I'm hoping that Taylor has a bit more of a prominent role today and Budarick did enough last night to not drop too far (hoping Starc can do the same).

Still have 300k+ ITB with a ridiculous number of playing rookies due to all of the sideways trades I've had to do, so hopefully the three trade rounds will help finish my team without needing to do to many double downs.

 

[Willyorwonty]

I moved Ceglar out this round. He looked so out of form before the toe injury. Apparently Ceglar will have easier opponents in the future, but when McEvoy shared the ruck with Ceglar, it worked well. I fear that may continue in the future, so I have lost confidence in Ceglar.

Ceglar scored 2 hundreds as a ruckman this season and his form tapered off badly.
Was worth a shot as a Forward given he played Ruck, but he has no historic track record to suggest he has good scoring ahead.
Sometimes you have to cut your losses guys. No excuses not to when we have extra trades. Pull the trigger and dump him, you'll feel better for it.

 

[jobeywatto]

Really regretting not just getting Rampe instead of screwing around with overpriced rookies like Egg-Smith. Oh well.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

Decided to clear more guys who aren’t getting games.
Green to Bailey Smith and McInerney to MLing (gone early as I have read good things) via DPP (Rivers).