I agree with you THCLT on everything you suggest here, except perhaps the '90-100' player. I think he is a 100 plus average player (just) from here on, even if there aren't shorter games.
I'll go back to my analysis at the start of the year on English (comparing with Grundy below). My projections (under normal SC) suggested a 102 average, which I even thought was bullish. It was based on his fitness, improved TOG, improved HTA and possessions around the ground. As suggested, his HTA have not been quite as high as expected but he has increased his disposals from 11 to 15 average despite the shorter quarters. I think English is so important to how the Bulldogs play and has such a natural aerobic capacity/fitness base that in a normal SC season he might even pip Grundy and Gawn for time on ground.
As some have also suggested, he is not just a disposal and contested/behind the play marking beast but also a contested possession beast now too. He can still work on his HTA (especially against the best rucks) but because of his disposal and marking power, even exceeding my growth projections, I now think my 102 projection for 2020 was well and truly 'unders' (I must admit it was looking dodgy for the first two rounds though)
Similarly, my projection that Goldstein would build on his form at the end of last year and close the gap with the top 2 has also so far been completely understated. I guess that's probably why I ended up taking the safe (and not a big regret) route of Gawn and Grundy this year despite my figures. Didn't even trust my own projections...
From earlier this year...
Grundy v English (Part 2)
As suggested its not just rucking that we may be able to use Grundy as a bit of guide for English. Looking at time on ground and disposals might be a guide. Although recognising Grundy's somewhat freakish abilities in this area, you have to moderate English's ceilings in these areas.
English already showed a good tank last year but has probably got almost another 5 minutes average playing time before he peaks (soon). As his body has built up we can expect more possessions from contested and uncontested marks and disposals overall. It is probably slightly optimistic but a 15 disposal average for him in 2020 may not be out of reach as he attends more ruck contests and rests in the forward line a bit more.
I'll go back to my analysis at the start of the year on English (comparing with Grundy below). My projections (under normal SC) suggested a 102 average, which I even thought was bullish. It was based on his fitness, improved TOG, improved HTA and possessions around the ground. As suggested, his HTA have not been quite as high as expected but he has increased his disposals from 11 to 15 average despite the shorter quarters. I think English is so important to how the Bulldogs play and has such a natural aerobic capacity/fitness base that in a normal SC season he might even pip Grundy and Gawn for time on ground.
As some have also suggested, he is not just a disposal and contested/behind the play marking beast but also a contested possession beast now too. He can still work on his HTA (especially against the best rucks) but because of his disposal and marking power, even exceeding my growth projections, I now think my 102 projection for 2020 was well and truly 'unders' (I must admit it was looking dodgy for the first two rounds though)
Similarly, my projection that Goldstein would build on his form at the end of last year and close the gap with the top 2 has also so far been completely understated. I guess that's probably why I ended up taking the safe (and not a big regret) route of Gawn and Grundy this year despite my figures. Didn't even trust my own projections...
From earlier this year...
Grundy v English (Part 2)
As suggested its not just rucking that we may be able to use Grundy as a bit of guide for English. Looking at time on ground and disposals might be a guide. Although recognising Grundy's somewhat freakish abilities in this area, you have to moderate English's ceilings in these areas.
English already showed a good tank last year but has probably got almost another 5 minutes average playing time before he peaks (soon). As his body has built up we can expect more possessions from contested and uncontested marks and disposals overall. It is probably slightly optimistic but a 15 disposal average for him in 2020 may not be out of reach as he attends more ruck contests and rests in the forward line a bit more.
