General Discussion

[Schmicko]

Very interesting. Thanks Grant.
When I do the work for FTB I actually look at the averages, for and against, of the top 4 scorers for each team. This isn't the top 4 scorers for the season, but on a week by week basis. As your table suggests, Melb, GWS and GC are the worst in this analysis. But I think nearly everyone will surprised as to which team, in the last 2 seasons, has given up the lowest average top 4 scores against them. ie, when you look at every home and away game they played in the last 2 seasons, add up the top 4 scores scored against them in each game, and take an average of those 176 scores (4 players x 22 games x 2 seasons). 134 Rep points to the person, who with one guess, names that team. Double Rep points if you can name the average top 4 score this team has given up. I'll give you an error margin of +/- 2.00.

...Carlton 112pts?

 

[Schmicko]

2013 SC Weighted Team Averages
NM 1746.6
HAW 1741.5
COL 1739.9
RIC 1725.5
GEE 1724.3
SYD 1708.1
FRE 1691.7
ESS 1685.3
CAR 1679.5
ADE 1663.1
WB 1647.6
PA 1637.5
WC 1636.4
STK 1602.9
BL 1589.9
GC 1584.8
GWS 1449.2
MEL 1446.5

Or if you prefer to look at it from the perspective of who the easiest sides to play were, which is virtually 3300-team ave as you'd expect:

2013 SC Weighted Opposition Averages
MEL 1852.6
GWS 1851.5
GC 1715.6
BL 1709.6
STK 1696.7
WC 1664.0
PA 1662.3
WB 1652.2
ADE 1636.7
CAR 1621.4
ESS 1615.4
FRE 1608.3
SYD 1591.5
GEE 1575.9
RIC 1574.6
COL 1560.7
HAW 1557.9
NM 1553.6

Really pathetic for Melbourne to do worse than GWS. They were even over 70pts a game worse than in 2012! It will be interesting to see Paul Roos' SC impact next season. I'm sure they'll improve but by how much?

Would be good to see the UN-weighted scores to get a more accurate indication of where some of these teams stand?!

 

[Rowsus]

...Carlton 112pts?

Nice guess, but wrong. Carlton ranked 6th at 114.9.

 

[Rowsus]

Would be good to see the UN-weighted scores to get a more accurate indication of where some of these teams stand?!

You will see a full list of the top 4 score averages, for and against, when FTB is released in 3 or 4 weeks

 

[Grant]

Would be good to see the UN-weighted scores to get a more accurate indication of where some of these teams stand?!

The weighting is more accurate:
Five double up opponents: 1/34th per game = 1/17th weighting
Twelve opponents teams play once: 1/17th per game = 1/17th weighting
Hence the sum equals a teams weighted average.

The purpose of this is to give an accurate assessment of the difficulty of playing a particular team. If you simply consider each game with equal importance then you're including the bias from the difficulty of a sides fixture.

 

[Schmicko]

The weighting is more accurate:
Five double up opponents: 1/34th per game = 1/17th weighting
Twelve opponents teams play once: 1/17th per game = 1/17th weighting
Hence the sum equals a teams weighted average.

The purpose of this is to give an accurate assessment of the difficulty of playing a particular team. If you simply consider each game with equal importance then you're including the bias from the difficulty of a sides fixture.

sorry mate, you've misunderstood me. Great effort on your behalf of utilizing the figures we are presented with... The weighting I was referring to is that which is done by Champion Data...lol and in the process of writing this I've realized I'm actually talking about 'scaling' and not weighting. Sorry, been a while

 

[Prochard]

Btw who went to the bbq(or just meet up) jay organised last year? How was it?

 

[Impromptu]

Btw who went to the bbq(or just meet up) jay organised last year? How was it?

It was a small group at a pub in Richmond, as it was the Easter weekend (lots of people had family commitments) if I recall correctly. But we had to make it that week as the 2012 SuperCoach winner (Michael Thuen/Chewylizard) was flying to Melbourne for the Port Game in the 2nd week of Round 1 iirc

 

[I_am_aweSAM]

Very interesting. Thanks Grant.
When I do the work for FTB I actually look at the averages, for and against, of the top 4 scorers for each team. This isn't the top 4 scorers for the season, but on a week by week basis. As your table suggests, Melb, GWS and GC are the worst in this analysis. But I think nearly everyone will surprised as to which team, in the last 2 seasons, has given up the lowest average top 4 scores against them. ie, when you look at every home and away game they played in the last 2 seasons, add up the top 4 scores scored against them in each game, and take an average of those 176 scores (4 players x 22 games x 2 seasons). 134 Rep points to the person, who with one guess, names that team. Double Rep points if you can name the average top 4 score this team has given up. I'll give you an error margin of +/- 2.00.

Richmond? @109

 

[Nk29]

I'll take a stab in the dark and say Bulldogs at 110.

 

[Philzsay]

Re Rowsus guessing game.

I'm going to go with the team that Pendles described as cheating or being lazy defensively.... The Magpies @ 113.

I'm basing this guess on knowing they were in the top 4 of these teams in last years thread combined with thinking that Macaffer this year did a great job limiting some of the bigger named players this year (except for Ablett). Plus the reverse psychology that if Swan/Pendles get monster scores there cant much left from the 3300 for lots of their opponents to produce monster scores.

 

[Prochard]

Either Fremantle or port.
I will go with port at 108

 

[kakarot]

Crows at 111

 

[Rowsus]

I'll take a stab in the dark and say Bulldogs at 110.

14th at 118.8

Re Rowsus guessing game.

I'm going to go with the team that Pendles described as cheating or being lazy defensively.... The Magpies @ 113.

7th at 115.6

Either Fremantle or port.
I will go with port at 108

15th at 120.0

Crows at 111

10th at 117.3

Richmond? @109

1st at 111.9

Great job Sam. I was pretty amazed Richmond were the hardest team to score well against in SC. I thought it might be Sydney (112.3), or Freo (113.9).

 

[Nk29]

^Yeah wasn't expecting it to be the bulldogs at all just figured I'd take a super roughy

 

[Prochard]

Ok lol that was embarrassing

14th at 118.8



7th at 115.6



15th at 120.0



10th at 117.3



1st at 111.9

Great job Sam. I was pretty amazed Richmond were the hardest team to score well against in SC. I thought it might be Sydney (112.3), or Freo (113.9).

 

[Philzsay]

Well that is a surprise!

 

[Prochard]

That's sad, this is in the document rowsus sent us, clearly most of us haven't done our homework

 

[Rowsus]

That's sad, this is in the document rowsus sent us, clearly most of us haven't done our homework

That's true Pro, the answer is found in RAMP...... if you know where to look!
Have a rep for noticing!

 

[tracygrims]

I'm going to guess Richmond with 112.