Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions
- Thread starter Darkie
- Start date
But are they inflated ? as they still allocated 3300 points to each game , so does that mean the acts were scored higher or the scaling was higher to compensate the shorter quarters , would have been easier to reduce the 3300 points awarded.
I am still confused.
Need to find the cheap Brayshaw , Doc Petracca , Ridley , Simpkin , B/D Smith etc etc to start (but then the entire discussion on how mid pricers doesn't work will go on)
Heeney appears the only premium who should receive a injury discount plus a few speculative others.
With reduced lists and a loss of football for the majority of the 2020 Draft it certainly could be challenging.
At least we will have Gould 😀
I am still confused.
Need to find the cheap Brayshaw , Doc Petracca , Ridley , Simpkin , B/D Smith etc etc to start (but then the entire discussion on how mid pricers doesn't work will go on)
Heeney appears the only premium who should receive a injury discount plus a few speculative others.
With reduced lists and a loss of football for the majority of the 2020 Draft it certainly could be challenging.
At least we will have Gould 😀
IDK, it was just an assumption.
Were there less possessions per quarter this year due to shorter quarters but still same amount of points on offer? Less goals due to shorter quarters? Lower game scores due to shorter quarters, meaning more close games and higher value of actions scoring SC points.
As I said, I don't know and am more that likely incorrect.
Were there less possessions per quarter this year due to shorter quarters but still same amount of points on offer? Less goals due to shorter quarters? Lower game scores due to shorter quarters, meaning more close games and higher value of actions scoring SC points.
As I said, I don't know and am more that likely incorrect.
- Joined
- 17 Jun 2014
- Messages
- 9,613
- Likes
- 37,696
- AFL Club
- Essendon
I don’t know either, but one thing I will look at on a rainy day is %TOG. Have some players had what appears to be an increase in TOG but have actually played the same minutes they usually do? Shorter matches means their opportunity has been greater when expressed in % terms, meaning they are likely to see a bigger chunk of the 3,300 pie.
- Joined
- 6 Jul 2012
- Messages
- 4,890
- Likes
- 11,150
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Diabolical is correct. Players who have more endurance do well in shortened quarters.
Whilst their time comes down in 2020, it doesn't come down as much as other players our overall. the time comes down (minutes) for all players as the game is faster/more intense.
Looking at a few sample games for Lachie Neale, He seemed to be off the ground for circa 7mins per game, whereas this varied in the prior year by 7-15mins. Overall game time (which includes when the clock is stopped) came down by circa 20mins.
What surprised me is how much the other midfielders seem to come down. Given the faster pace of the game, in hindsight, maybe that shouldn't have been a surprise.
There is a chance we have overemphasised the TOG impact this year for Lloyd/Neale and maybe it is only a 5% impact, not 10-15%.
Gold probably shows mins on ave this year and last.
What I can say is I didn't even complete my team (20 premiums) yet I have a team value of $13.3m whereas normally it is $12.5-13m. Shows players are going to be expensive.
Whilst their time comes down in 2020, it doesn't come down as much as other players our overall. the time comes down (minutes) for all players as the game is faster/more intense.
Looking at a few sample games for Lachie Neale, He seemed to be off the ground for circa 7mins per game, whereas this varied in the prior year by 7-15mins. Overall game time (which includes when the clock is stopped) came down by circa 20mins.
What surprised me is how much the other midfielders seem to come down. Given the faster pace of the game, in hindsight, maybe that shouldn't have been a surprise.
There is a chance we have overemphasised the TOG impact this year for Lloyd/Neale and maybe it is only a 5% impact, not 10-15%.
Gold probably shows mins on ave this year and last.
What I can say is I didn't even complete my team (20 premiums) yet I have a team value of $13.3m whereas normally it is $12.5-13m. Shows players are going to be expensive.
Last edited:
- Joined
- 7 Sep 2020
- Messages
- 12,069
- Likes
- 42,465
THE PHANTOM
Wayne Milera (Approx price $361k)
The highly-talented Crow played just two matches in 2020, after suffering a stress fracture in his foot. An inconsistent previous season – he wasn’t alone at West Lakes – meant Milera started the year at $408k. That appeared great value, too, given he averaged 95 points per game from Round 17 onwards in 2018 – his third year in the competition – and posted scores of 82, 105, 109 and 86 in the opening month of 2019 before a shoulder injury. And those numbers alone put Milera on the watchlist, regardless of whether he plans in the midfield or across half-back.
Locked and loaded.
Wayne Milera (Approx price $361k)
The highly-talented Crow played just two matches in 2020, after suffering a stress fracture in his foot. An inconsistent previous season – he wasn’t alone at West Lakes – meant Milera started the year at $408k. That appeared great value, too, given he averaged 95 points per game from Round 17 onwards in 2018 – his third year in the competition – and posted scores of 82, 105, 109 and 86 in the opening month of 2019 before a shoulder injury. And those numbers alone put Milera on the watchlist, regardless of whether he plans in the midfield or across half-back.
Locked and loaded.
- Joined
- 7 Sep 2020
- Messages
- 12,069
- Likes
- 42,465
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...s/news-story/3c41556f6f7a6c770803ed1c81eb1a3b
*2021 price projections courtesy of Brice Mitchell.
Sam Draper (Approx price: $382k)
The young Essendon ruckman will be primed to take on the No. 1 ruck responsibilities after featuring in eight games during his debut campaign. He showed encouraging signs during those matches, although an average of two free kicks against each game hindered his KFC SuperCoach scoring. He was a great cash cow for thousands of coaches, reaching $341,800 before most moved him on. His standout game was in Round 13 when he had 13 disposals, 14 hit outs and took six marks against Richmond. The ‘set and forget’ combination of Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn will be popular again next season — for good reason — but if I need to save money I’ll consider Draper as a stepping stone to one of the big two. Especially if he’s available for about $400,000 after a full pre-season.
Liam Stocker (Approx price $200k)
Assuming he gets the regular 30 per cent discount applied to players who miss a full season, the No. 19 draft pick will be available for about $170,000 next year. He was listed as a SuperCoach defender this year and is likely to retain that position due to a lack of action in 2020 — Stocker left the Blues hub to return to Victoria in July. He played five games in 2019, averaging 49.6 with a top score of 64. Carlton is crying out for midfielders to support Patrick Cripps and if Stocker can take the next step in 2021, he shapes as a great cash cow. $170k sounds like a lot to pay, but thousands of coaches paid $20k more than that to start with Brandon Zerk-Thatcher this season. As a Blues fan, I’ll have eyes on Stocker during pre-season for two reasons — SuperCoach and Carlton’s 2021 prospects.
Nic Newman will be cheap in KFC SuperCoach after battling injury in 2020. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos
Nic Newman (Approx price: $420k)
After scores of 39 and 8 in his two games of 2020, the Blues defender will come at a significant discount on his 2020 price of $524,800. Newman injured his knee in Round 2 and was ruled out for the rest of the year after surgery. If he’s fit for Round 1 in 2021 and shows promise in the pre-season, he needs to be considered. The ex-Swan averaged 96.7 two years ago and his importance to Carlton’s defence will only grow after Kade Simpson’s retirement. With Jake Lloyd and possibly a DEF-MID Rory Laird at D1 and D2, Newman could be a value D3 selection.
Wayne Milera (Approx price $361k)
The highly-talented Crow played just two matches in 2020, after suffering a stress fracture in his foot. An inconsistent previous season – he wasn’t alone at West Lakes – meant Milera started the year at $408k. That appeared great value, too, given he averaged 95 points per game from Round 17 onwards in 2018 – his third year in the competition – and posted scores of 82, 105, 109 and 86 in the opening month of 2019 before a shoulder injury. And those numbers alone put Milera on the watchlist, regardless of whether he plans in the midfield or across half-back.
Jackson Hately (Approx price: $314k)
Adelaide is keen on Hately and if the young midfielder does make the move back home to South Australia in this year’s trade period, he’ll shoot straight to the top of KFC SuperCoach watchlists. It will mean consistent opportunity in the midfield, something he hasn’t had in his two years in the competition. Hately, who averaged 108 points at the 2018 national under-18 carnival, has played just 13 senior game since being drafted at pick No. 14 in 2018 and he was a late inclusion to the Giants side for three of them. But he still posted KFC SuperCoach scores of 95 and 85 in the opening two games of his career in 2019 and 108 in his first appearance in Round 3 this year. The smart, ball-winning midfielder wasn’t picked in Round 1, desptite a standout pre-season, which saw him average 115 points in the Marsh Series. And in 2021, he’s likely to priced at $314k.
Hunter Clark (Approx price: $441k)
Maybe I went a year too early. In his second season, Clark, who averaged 126 KFC SuperCoach points in the TAC Cup in his draft year, settled across half-back following the bye and averaed 86 points – the seventh-most of any Saint – from Round 15 onwards. The 186cm left-footer couldn’t maintain this form consistently through 2020, but there were still plenty of signs. There was dash off half-back and clean hands at ground level as Clark posted five KFC SuperCoach tons, with his 124-point performance in Round 17 his best for the season. Is 2021 his year?
Tom Green (Approx price: $355k)
If you break Champion Data’s contested possession record at the under-18 championships in your draft year and then tally 30 disposals, 20 contested possessions and 119 KFC SuperCoach points in your fifth career game, you have to be on this list. Even if 2021 will be your dreaded second-year, and you’ll be awkwardly-priced at $355k. Remember Clayton Oliver’s 2017?
*2021 price projections courtesy of Brice Mitchell.
Sam Draper (Approx price: $382k)
The young Essendon ruckman will be primed to take on the No. 1 ruck responsibilities after featuring in eight games during his debut campaign. He showed encouraging signs during those matches, although an average of two free kicks against each game hindered his KFC SuperCoach scoring. He was a great cash cow for thousands of coaches, reaching $341,800 before most moved him on. His standout game was in Round 13 when he had 13 disposals, 14 hit outs and took six marks against Richmond. The ‘set and forget’ combination of Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn will be popular again next season — for good reason — but if I need to save money I’ll consider Draper as a stepping stone to one of the big two. Especially if he’s available for about $400,000 after a full pre-season.
Liam Stocker (Approx price $200k)
Assuming he gets the regular 30 per cent discount applied to players who miss a full season, the No. 19 draft pick will be available for about $170,000 next year. He was listed as a SuperCoach defender this year and is likely to retain that position due to a lack of action in 2020 — Stocker left the Blues hub to return to Victoria in July. He played five games in 2019, averaging 49.6 with a top score of 64. Carlton is crying out for midfielders to support Patrick Cripps and if Stocker can take the next step in 2021, he shapes as a great cash cow. $170k sounds like a lot to pay, but thousands of coaches paid $20k more than that to start with Brandon Zerk-Thatcher this season. As a Blues fan, I’ll have eyes on Stocker during pre-season for two reasons — SuperCoach and Carlton’s 2021 prospects.
Nic Newman will be cheap in KFC SuperCoach after battling injury in 2020. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos
Nic Newman (Approx price: $420k)
After scores of 39 and 8 in his two games of 2020, the Blues defender will come at a significant discount on his 2020 price of $524,800. Newman injured his knee in Round 2 and was ruled out for the rest of the year after surgery. If he’s fit for Round 1 in 2021 and shows promise in the pre-season, he needs to be considered. The ex-Swan averaged 96.7 two years ago and his importance to Carlton’s defence will only grow after Kade Simpson’s retirement. With Jake Lloyd and possibly a DEF-MID Rory Laird at D1 and D2, Newman could be a value D3 selection.
Wayne Milera (Approx price $361k)
The highly-talented Crow played just two matches in 2020, after suffering a stress fracture in his foot. An inconsistent previous season – he wasn’t alone at West Lakes – meant Milera started the year at $408k. That appeared great value, too, given he averaged 95 points per game from Round 17 onwards in 2018 – his third year in the competition – and posted scores of 82, 105, 109 and 86 in the opening month of 2019 before a shoulder injury. And those numbers alone put Milera on the watchlist, regardless of whether he plans in the midfield or across half-back.
Jackson Hately (Approx price: $314k)
Adelaide is keen on Hately and if the young midfielder does make the move back home to South Australia in this year’s trade period, he’ll shoot straight to the top of KFC SuperCoach watchlists. It will mean consistent opportunity in the midfield, something he hasn’t had in his two years in the competition. Hately, who averaged 108 points at the 2018 national under-18 carnival, has played just 13 senior game since being drafted at pick No. 14 in 2018 and he was a late inclusion to the Giants side for three of them. But he still posted KFC SuperCoach scores of 95 and 85 in the opening two games of his career in 2019 and 108 in his first appearance in Round 3 this year. The smart, ball-winning midfielder wasn’t picked in Round 1, desptite a standout pre-season, which saw him average 115 points in the Marsh Series. And in 2021, he’s likely to priced at $314k.
Hunter Clark (Approx price: $441k)
Maybe I went a year too early. In his second season, Clark, who averaged 126 KFC SuperCoach points in the TAC Cup in his draft year, settled across half-back following the bye and averaed 86 points – the seventh-most of any Saint – from Round 15 onwards. The 186cm left-footer couldn’t maintain this form consistently through 2020, but there were still plenty of signs. There was dash off half-back and clean hands at ground level as Clark posted five KFC SuperCoach tons, with his 124-point performance in Round 17 his best for the season. Is 2021 his year?
Tom Green (Approx price: $355k)
If you break Champion Data’s contested possession record at the under-18 championships in your draft year and then tally 30 disposals, 20 contested possessions and 119 KFC SuperCoach points in your fifth career game, you have to be on this list. Even if 2021 will be your dreaded second-year, and you’ll be awkwardly-priced at $355k. Remember Clayton Oliver’s 2017?
- Joined
- 7 Sep 2020
- Messages
- 12,069
- Likes
- 42,465
Josh Dunkley (Approx price: $566k)
This man will be just about my first picked in 2021 in the likely event he earns FWD/MID/ (Ruck?) status. He started in my side this season with an unfortunate syndesmosis injury restricting him to 11 games. Of course there is the potential for magnet-man Luke Beveridge to play funny buggers – including his perplexing decision to play him in the ruck – but a forward with his scoring power available for less than $600,000 is a gift from the KFC SuperCoach Gods.
Zac Williams (Approx price: $464k)
Watch Zac Williams this trade period with interest, KFC SuperCoaches. The smooth-moving free agent is on the move this off-season with Carlton his likely destination. A move to the midfield beckons at a new club, having been starved of centre-square opportunities by Greater Western Sydney’s midfield logjam. Our minds cast back to his exploits as a midfielder during the later stages of 2019, registering impressive numbers and six 95-plus totals between Round 20 and the preliminary final. Should keep his DEF only status in 2021 and his price should be below $500,000 after another injury-affected campaign.
Liam Duggan (Approx price: $453k)
As the season has gone on, the passing of the baton from KFC SuperCoach stalwart Shannon Hurn to Liam Duggan has become evident. Duggan has regularly played the intercept and distributor role occupied by Hurn in previous season, benefiting from West Coast’s kick-mark style during the back-half of the season. He has even been taking more kick-ins – arguably the biggest sign of a Hurn handover. The defender’s finish to the season has been superb, amassing six scores of 95 or more in his last eight games and averaging 98 points. Poor scores to begin the season will see him present plenty of value at around the $450,000 mark.
Tim English at R2 in KFC SuperCoach next year? Picture: Michael Klein
Tim English (Approx price: $557k)
Picking a second ruckman to partner Max Gawn will be one of the toughest calls of the next KFC SuperCoach pre-season. Brodie Grundy has come back to a growing pack, with seven ruckmen averaging 100-plus to Round 17. English will be entering his fifth season off a rollercoaster year that has included a 204-point game and three scores in the 50s. Season 2021 might be the year to put in my chips on him putting up those big numbers on a consistent basis.
Adam Cerra (Approx price: $490k)
Justin Longmuir has provided a look into Fremantle’s future in the second half of the season and the former top-five draft pick has thrived on more midfield responsibility, averaging 104 since Round 11 (by comparison Patrick Cripps has averaged 102 over the same period). Cerra put up big numbers as a junior and should be ready to take the baton from the likes of David Mundy next year - but this is Fremantle we’re talking about, so buyer beware!
Jack Lukosius showed his KFC SuperCoach power in 2020. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images
Jack Lukosius (Approx price: $435k)
I will be very interested in how much of a discount the SuperCoach bankers hand the likes of Dion Prestia, Ben Cunnington and Jeremy Howe - and Buddy will be insanely cheap - but it’s more fun to look for breakout contenders, and Lukosius definitely fits that bill. The former No.2 draft pick will be entering his third season, which is early for a breakout, but a guy who can score 130-plus two weeks in a row in his second year is worth a closer look. Keep a close eye on his role - if it includes taking kick-ins and using his elite kicking out of the back half in a team likely to win a lot more games in 2021, I will be very tempted.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...s/news-story/3c41556f6f7a6c770803ed1c81eb1a3b
This man will be just about my first picked in 2021 in the likely event he earns FWD/MID/ (Ruck?) status. He started in my side this season with an unfortunate syndesmosis injury restricting him to 11 games. Of course there is the potential for magnet-man Luke Beveridge to play funny buggers – including his perplexing decision to play him in the ruck – but a forward with his scoring power available for less than $600,000 is a gift from the KFC SuperCoach Gods.
Zac Williams (Approx price: $464k)
Watch Zac Williams this trade period with interest, KFC SuperCoaches. The smooth-moving free agent is on the move this off-season with Carlton his likely destination. A move to the midfield beckons at a new club, having been starved of centre-square opportunities by Greater Western Sydney’s midfield logjam. Our minds cast back to his exploits as a midfielder during the later stages of 2019, registering impressive numbers and six 95-plus totals between Round 20 and the preliminary final. Should keep his DEF only status in 2021 and his price should be below $500,000 after another injury-affected campaign.
Liam Duggan (Approx price: $453k)
As the season has gone on, the passing of the baton from KFC SuperCoach stalwart Shannon Hurn to Liam Duggan has become evident. Duggan has regularly played the intercept and distributor role occupied by Hurn in previous season, benefiting from West Coast’s kick-mark style during the back-half of the season. He has even been taking more kick-ins – arguably the biggest sign of a Hurn handover. The defender’s finish to the season has been superb, amassing six scores of 95 or more in his last eight games and averaging 98 points. Poor scores to begin the season will see him present plenty of value at around the $450,000 mark.
Tim English at R2 in KFC SuperCoach next year? Picture: Michael Klein
Tim English (Approx price: $557k)
Picking a second ruckman to partner Max Gawn will be one of the toughest calls of the next KFC SuperCoach pre-season. Brodie Grundy has come back to a growing pack, with seven ruckmen averaging 100-plus to Round 17. English will be entering his fifth season off a rollercoaster year that has included a 204-point game and three scores in the 50s. Season 2021 might be the year to put in my chips on him putting up those big numbers on a consistent basis.
Adam Cerra (Approx price: $490k)
Justin Longmuir has provided a look into Fremantle’s future in the second half of the season and the former top-five draft pick has thrived on more midfield responsibility, averaging 104 since Round 11 (by comparison Patrick Cripps has averaged 102 over the same period). Cerra put up big numbers as a junior and should be ready to take the baton from the likes of David Mundy next year - but this is Fremantle we’re talking about, so buyer beware!
Jack Lukosius showed his KFC SuperCoach power in 2020. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images
Jack Lukosius (Approx price: $435k)
I will be very interested in how much of a discount the SuperCoach bankers hand the likes of Dion Prestia, Ben Cunnington and Jeremy Howe - and Buddy will be insanely cheap - but it’s more fun to look for breakout contenders, and Lukosius definitely fits that bill. The former No.2 draft pick will be entering his third season, which is early for a breakout, but a guy who can score 130-plus two weeks in a row in his second year is worth a closer look. Keep a close eye on his role - if it includes taking kick-ins and using his elite kicking out of the back half in a team likely to win a lot more games in 2021, I will be very tempted.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...s/news-story/3c41556f6f7a6c770803ed1c81eb1a3b
- Joined
- 7 Sep 2020
- Messages
- 12,069
- Likes
- 42,465
- Joined
- 3 Jul 2017
- Messages
- 38,960
- Likes
- 126,628
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Joined
- 3 Jul 2017
- Messages
- 38,960
- Likes
- 126,628
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Joined
- 3 Jul 2017
- Messages
- 38,960
- Likes
- 126,628
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Joined
- 18 Jan 2016
- Messages
- 735
- Likes
- 2,127
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Luko at 430 makes him a bit more intersting. Expected him to be 480, but at that price, might as well pay up for mcdonald/laird. Ceiling is there. I am not overly confident in him but there is potentially value.
Milera is an injury magnet, and he needs to play half back to score. He is a HBF but im not sure the coaches understand that, he hinted in a pressor about 5 times he has no interest playing forward yet I think he played a tad there earlier this year. 360k though, upside is there, could easily make 100k. One to watch but I think is incredibly low chance to a premo that plays 20+ games.
I'm done with Zwilliams, he has to have the record for most bandaid icons on fanfooty. Gun though. If he pops off early ill sit back and let it go the injury is invetiable. Dodgy achillies as well.
Milera is an injury magnet, and he needs to play half back to score. He is a HBF but im not sure the coaches understand that, he hinted in a pressor about 5 times he has no interest playing forward yet I think he played a tad there earlier this year. 360k though, upside is there, could easily make 100k. One to watch but I think is incredibly low chance to a premo that plays 20+ games.
I'm done with Zwilliams, he has to have the record for most bandaid icons on fanfooty. Gun though. If he pops off early ill sit back and let it go the injury is invetiable. Dodgy achillies as well.