Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Beg2Differ]

I’m not sure if we can know any of that for sure, even though it’s possible. Why do you think his size means he’ll be broken down? JPK, Bont, Fyfe and Danger are also huge. His physical style probably isn’t the best for his body but physical big bodied players don’t usually start declining early. I think smaller inside mids have bigger issues with longevity

Don’t think I was saying any of that would happen for sure, just offering a theory based on what I observe. Also not saying he will necessarily break down either but I don’t believe he is as a naturally agile as those you mention (with the possible exception of JPK) and worry that will reduce his effectiveness over time.

Actually JPK is probably the most similar to Cripps and I agree, as you say, he has been able to maintain his effectiveness in that type of role.

 

[Connoisseur]

Nic Newman (Approx price: $420k)
After scores of 39 and 8 in his two games of 2020, the Blues defender will come at a significant discount on his 2020 price of $524,800. Newman injured his knee in Round 2 and was ruled out for the rest of the year after surgery. If he’s fit for Round 1 in 2021 and shows promise in the pre-season, he needs to be considered. The ex-Swan averaged 96.7 two years ago and his importance to Carlton’s defence will only grow after Kade Simpson’s retirement. With Jake Lloyd and possibly a DEF-MID Rory Laird at D1 and D2, Newman could be a value D3 selection.

N Newman:
Career Disposals Avg: 19.9 from 50
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 20: 101.88 from 25 (2/25 below 80, 14/25 below 100, 4/25 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 20: 65.88 from 25 (16/25 below 80, 25/25 below 100)

 

[blue dreamer]

I think he’s just going to be so underpriced based on what he can produce that I see him as far too good to pass up as a starting pick. It might not work and he might be cooked for a while longer but I reckon it’s worth a shot. It would probably take an awful preseason for me to do otherwise.

He’s also someone who has historically had a really high time on ground and not been as elite for points per minute as some other players and I reckon the shorter quarters hurt his scoring.

I’m also thinking I’ll start Sam Walsh as a pick I reckon will go 110+

I feel (without stats to back this up), that he grinds out quarters and has been effected negatively by the shorter quarters.

An increase even to 18 minute quarters would therefore be to his benefit.

Plus he has always been a handballing non goal kicking midfielder (maybe he should look to make the all australian team as a forward next year)

 

[Leroy]

Don’t think I was saying any of that would happen for sure, just offering a theory based on what I observe. Also not saying he will necessarily break down either but I don’t believe he is as a naturally agile as those you mention (with the possible exception of JPK) and worry that will reduce his effectiveness over time.

Actually JPK is probably the most similar to Cripps and I agree, as you say, he has been able to maintain his effectiveness in that type of role.

I was thinking about JPK as I looked through players. I actually think he is quite different to Cripps in style (smarter maybe in terms of longevity?): he gets a lot of his inside possessions as first touch at the foot of the rucks - feet planted, using his frame and core to protect his arms and then handballing away while standing, often in a tackle. Cripps seems much more battering-ram style: trying to clear the area with disposal while moving or starting to move.

JPK could keep doing his thing for years; Cripps is going to be smashed to bits.

 

[pizza safety]

Don’t think I was saying any of that would happen for sure, just offering a theory based on what I observe. Also not saying he will necessarily break down either but I don’t believe he is as a naturally agile as those you mention (with the possible exception of JPK) and worry that will reduce his effectiveness over time.

Actually JPK is probably the most similar to Cripps and I agree, as you say, he has been able to maintain his effectiveness in that type of role.

Ok I got you, didn’t mean to sound like I was being critical. I also wouldn’t be totally surprised if Cripps never gets to the same level either if he ends up cooked from playing in that style.

I think he’s more agile than people think, he has a good shimmy step in tight spaces for such a big guy, can get around a few players. But yeah he’s less agile than those other players except JPK. Jobe Watson is also a similar comp and was good til he was about 30, I think he’s said he modeled his game on those two the most when he was developing

 

[pizza safety]

I was thinking about JPK as I looked through players. I actually think he is quite different to Cripps in style (smarter maybe in terms of longevity?): he gets a lot of his inside possessions as first touch at the foot of the rucks - feet planted, using his frame and core to protect his arms and then handballing away while standing, often in a tackle. Cripps seems much more battering-ram style: trying to clear the area with disposal while moving or starting to move.

JPK could keep doing his thing for years; Cripps is going to be smashed to bits.

I think the main reason Cripps moves more at stoppages is because he’s got the agility to get around one or two players in confined spaces, whereas JPK doesn’t.

I agree it’s more likely to be worse for his longevity but he’s not the only mid who does that

 

[Snowman]

Pretty simple decision for me. 1st player picked when SC resumes for 2021

 

[freowho]

How much do the smart people think Buddy will cost?

 

[pizza safety]

I feel (without stats to back this up), that he grinds out quarters and has been effected negatively by the shorter quarters.

An increase even to 18 minute quarters would therefore be to his benefit.

Plus he has always been a handballing non goal kicking midfielder (maybe he should look to make the all australian team as a forward next year)

Shorter quarters has definitely had a negative impact on him.

In 2019 he was 22nd for points per minute of all players to play at least 10 games, but 7th for SC average.

In 2018 he was 14th for points per minute of all players to play at least 10 games, but 6th for SC average.

Time on ground the last 3 years: 2018 89.5%, 2019 89.9%, 2020 85.1%. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I990704/Cripps-Patrick

So his time on ground was down 4.5-5% this year with shorter games that already hurt his low points per minute / average ratio.

This makes him more or less the no.1 lock for me next year besides Grundy if quarters are increased back to at least 18 minutes. However, if they do go back to 18, rather than 20, he will find it harder to recapture his 2018/2019 scoring output

 

[pizza safety]

some guys who could make some money as mid priced forwards next season:

Jeremy Cameron
Luke Dahlhaus
Josh Caddy
Darcy Macpherson
Jack Ziebell
Ben Brown

Most of these would probably not work out, but good to keep an eye out to see if someone looks promising in preseason. Ziebell is probably the standout pick with a 48 average for the year, but he's a long way off looking viable.

 

[Bontempele]

Wouldn't be going anywhere near Ziebs, he looks shot!

some guys who could make some money as mid priced forwards next season:

Jeremy Cameron
Luke Dahlhaus
Josh Caddy
Darcy Macpherson
Jack Ziebell
Ben Brown

Most of these would probably not work out, but good to keep an eye out to see if someone looks promising in preseason. Ziebell is probably the standout pick with a 48 average for the year, but he's a long way off looking viable.

 

[pizza safety]

Wouldn't be going anywhere near Ziebs, he looks shot!

haha yeah it seems like it!

But if he looks like his body has somewhat recovered in preseason next year and he looks generally less cooked he'll only be 261k based on this year's pricing.

 

[Bomber18]

How much do the smart people think Buddy will cost?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307647335145435136

 

[Bontempele]

haha yeah it seems like it!

But if he looks like his body has somewhat recovered in preseason next year and he looks generally less cooked he'll only be 261k based on this year's pricing.

Reminds me of Roberton...

 

[Connoisseur]

E Yeo:
2020 Avg: 89.9 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 5/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
2017-2019 Avg: 105.89 from 64 (7/64 below 80, 27/64 below 100, 17/64 120+)

 

[scarfaceclaw]

I'm really undecided on Cripps. He is going to be massively underpriced but shoulder reconstructions are trouble. Recently Wines and Rockliff massively underperformed after shoulder surgery. It's hard to be a bull with a bung shoulder. I think i'm leaning to no risk.

 

[pizza safety]

Reminds me of Roberton...

how come?

 

[Bomber18]

E Yeo:
2020 Avg: 89.9 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 5/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
2017-2019 Avg: 105.89 from 64 (7/64 below 80, 27/64 below 100, 17/64 120+)

Approx 490k price I think.

Would fit in with the general theory to prioritise value!

 

[Connoisseur]

Approx 490k price I think.

Would fit in with the general theory to prioritise value!

M2 to M5- T Mitchell, J Dunkley, P Cripps and E Yeo

 

[Bomber18]

M2 to M5- T Mitchell, J Dunkley, P Cripps and E Yeo

Heppell M6

What could go wrong?