Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

Under The Dome

Under The Dome

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#461
Under The Dome said:
Still don't know who will be top mids and Rowell is 445k for a M5 so that is ok if I am going to pay 730k for Neale, 664k for Oliver and 616k for Mitchell. Mitchell also had shoulder surgery but he plays different to Cripps who also gets thrown forward at times. Only want to carry 2 having surgery. Going to load up with probably 4 premo defenders in Ryan or Laird (If remains a mid), Whitfield, Stewart and Daniel. I'll pay up for Gawn aswell. Willing to back in Rowell who had his surgery in July so has extra recovery time to build up the strength.
4 back , 4 mids (maybe 5 with rowell) 2 Rucks and 3 fwds is 13-14 starters.
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Roughly 7.8m for those and leaves 137.5k avg for the last 16 (Probably won't have that many lower priced rookies with alot of them playing throughout the year.)
Only around 50-55 predicted to be taken at the draft with the first rounders more likely to be regulars varying 120-208k. Seem to be a fair amount of talls at the front of the draft.
 
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Darkie

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#462
Under The Dome said:
The AFL are reportedly set to return to traditional 20-minute quarters in 2021.
The Age reporter Peter Ryan writes that, after playing 16-minute quarters during the COVID-19 impacted 2020 season, sources have suggested the league is keen to return to how the game was pre-pandemic in as many aspects as possible, including quarter length.

The report notes it is “most likely” the AFL executive recommends a return to 20-minute quarters in the 2021 season, with the league in the final stages of discussions with broadcasters and other key stakeholders.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/cc862e112baa4d6be858ea1362e3f0f8

Should bring those boosted fake premos back to the pack in prices pretty quickly.
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Who do you have in mind as fake premos/ones to avoid?
 
Under The Dome

Under The Dome

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#463
Darkie said:
Who do you have in mind as fake premos/ones to avoid?
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Hard to pick from but 3 Bulldogs players Macrae,Bont and Hunter averaged 115+ now have Treloar in the mix. One or two could end up wingmen/fwds but hard to pick who. Also with Libba and Smith about aswell. Petracca averaged 117.5 (638k for 2021), Steele avg 122.2 (665k for 2021) don't know if I can trust them yet. I can't trust J.Kelly or Fyfe with injuries so that is how I planned my choices at this stage. Lloyd is a set and forget but I just can't justify paying 663k for a backman who probably had a 12-14 boost on avg in shortened games(If I pay 100k overs for someone it'll be Neale and Gawn)
 
Darkie

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#464
Under The Dome said:
Hard to pick from but 3 Bulldogs players Macrae,Bont and Hunter averaged 115+ now have Treloar in the mix. One or two could end up wingmen/fwds but hard to pick who. Also with Libba and Smith about aswell. Petracca averaged 117.5 (638k for 2021), Steele avg 122.2 (665k for 2021) don't know if I can trust them yet. I can't trust J.Kelly or Fyfe with injuries so that is how I planned my choices at this stage. Lloyd is a set and forget but I just can't justify paying 663k for a backman who probably had a 12-14 boost on avg in shortened games(If I pay 100k overs for someone it'll be Neale and Gawn)
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Hard to disagree with any of this. I feel Macrae is a level above the other Dogs mids (and almost everyone else) from an SC perspective, so I would be disappointed not to be able to start him, but the Dogs already had too many mids to pay overs for anyone, before Treloar showed up!

I usually wait a year on guys like Trac and Steele anyway, I guess there’s just an extra incentive to do so this year ... and I’ll start Lloyd one day, but probably not in 2021!
 
Bontempele

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#465
Under The Dome said:
The AFL are reportedly set to return to traditional 20-minute quarters in 2021.
The Age reporter Peter Ryan writes that, after playing 16-minute quarters during the COVID-19 impacted 2020 season, sources have suggested the league is keen to return to how the game was pre-pandemic in as many aspects as possible, including quarter length.

The report notes it is “most likely” the AFL executive recommends a return to 20-minute quarters in the 2021 season, with the league in the final stages of discussions with broadcasters and other key stakeholders.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/cc862e112baa4d6be858ea1362e3f0f8

Should bring those boosted fake premos back to the pack in prices pretty quickly.
Click to expand...
I might be missing something, but why would longer quarters make fake premos score worse? My guess is that everyone will be slightly more consistent by game, since in-game scaling is slightly lower. But across the course of a season, I think that should even out and not make any difference to players' averages.
 
Under The Dome

Under The Dome

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#466
Bontempele said:
I might be missing something, but why would longer quarters make fake premos score worse? My guess is that everyone will be slightly more consistent by game, since in-game scaling is slightly lower. But across the course of a season, I think that should even out and not make any difference to players' averages.
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I probably should have said fake premo prices. Said to myself players like Steele and Petracca, can I see them being 122 and 117 average players by end of next season and are they worth the 650k+ price tag or are they more the 500-550k players around the 100-105 average?
Oliver with proven history has had 111, 114, 109 in the 3 years before his 122 average this year. He is worthy of being a starter with his price inflated without probably his output this year on his stats.
 
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Bontempele

Bontempele

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#467
Under The Dome said:
I probably should have said fake premo prices. Said to myself players like Steele and Petracca, can I see them being 122 and 117 average players by end of next season and are they worth the 650k+ price tag or are they more the 500-550k players around the 100-105 average?
Oliver with proven history has had 111, 114, 109 in the 3 years before his 122 average this year. He is worthy of being a starter with his price inflated without probably his output this year on his stats.
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For sure, Oliver and Titch look like very nice reliable and reasonably priced options. I guess I was just wondering why the 20min quarters would have any impact?
 
Under The Dome

Under The Dome

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#470
Bontempele said:
For sure, Oliver and Titch look like very nice reliable and reasonably priced options. I guess I was just wondering why the 20min quarters would have any impact?
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This is my conspiracy theory with the 3,300 points allocation in longer vs shorter games.
Alot of rookies got chances this year and whilst alot had pretty productive years there were alot of pretty miserable efforts that didn't produce many stats to take away from the 3300 points.
For example in the final round this year Dogs vs Fremantle, there was a point comparison of 1761(Bulldogs) vs 1541 (Fremantle). There ended up being 12 players with a combined total of 447 points. Liberatore had a pretty good day but a 196 game? He had a similar stat effort the week before for 133 points (-6 x 1% acts).
In week 17 the Bulldogs also had 9 other players ton up with more stats spread about, but in week 18 there was only 3 other Bulldogs to ton up. I think with the extra game time to played out, there will be extra time for all other players to hit the stat sheet taking points away from the total 3300 pool.
It should in theory then just give points for the actual stats without as much scaling as we saw this year. Seen alot score jumps at quarter time this year.
 
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Bontempele

Bontempele

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Collingwood could provide some gold when it comes to breakout mids with Treloar gone. I wouldn't mind a look at Cal Brown as a M/F if he lines up in the midfield in round 1 - he has shades of Jy Simpkin.
 
Under The Dome

Under The Dome

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#477
Bontempele said:
Collingwood could provide some gold when it comes to breakout mids with Treloar gone. I wouldn't mind a look at Cal Brown as a M/F if he lines up in the midfield in round 1 - he has shades of Jy Simpkin.
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Yeh not a bad thing just went through their list and there isn't much of a "midfield" there. Going to need some big improvement from everyone who isn't Pendles,Adams and Sidebottom. Might see someone like Crisp end up playing there alot more.
 
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