Analysis BBL|10 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

[mike89]

Are they potentially averaging the two games in a DGR and taking the average if one of them drops out of the rolling average?

 

[Tails]

Are they potentially averaging the two games in a DGR and taking the average if one of them drops out of the rolling average?

I've spent hours trying literally everything I can possibly think of to make sense of it ....

- Pretty much given up now .... all I know is that they have got it wrong and stubbornly probably won't fix it ...

 

[Tails]

SC is currently showing -16. I know why we have two different numbers, but having a third well after lockout seems a bit concerning!

I saw SC with 16 and divided it by two which gave me 8 for each game if that makes sense ...

 

[Darkie]

I've spent hours trying literally everything I can possibly think of to make sense of it ....

- Pretty much given up now .... all I know is that they have got it wrong and stubbornly probably won't fix it ...

I had a pretty solid crack at this as well, couldn’t figure it out. There seems to be either an error or a random element that doesn’t seem to fit any of the semi-logical options I could think of.

I guess we just assume the Gold BEs are representative and that our cash cows will benefit from low ones/suffer from high ones? Not sure what else to do.

 

[Tails]

I had a pretty solid crack at this as well, couldn’t figure it out. There seems to be either an error or a random element that doesn’t seem to fit any of the semi-logical options I could think of.

I guess we just assume the Gold BEs are representative and that our cash cows will benefit from low ones/suffer from high ones? Not sure what else to do.

My last thought is that they have scrambled the players in their database ...

Not easy to put into words though ...

 

[Beg2Differ]

My last thought is that they have scrambled the players in their database ...

Not easy to put into words though ...

Were there discrepancies in the BEs going into round 2? If so we’re the actual price changes consistent with those BEs.

If not then I suppose after this round you will know if the publish BEs can be trusted.

 

[Tails]

Were there discrepancies in the BEs going into round 2? If so we’re the actual price changes consistent with those BEs.

If not then I suppose after this round you will know if the publish BEs can be trusted.

No issues that I saw from the first round ....

- Round 1 the prices changes were less than $1k accuracy wise .. so all good and the BE's were spot on ...

- Round 2 the prices changes were within the $1 - 3k price bracket and the BE's seemed to be right ... not great but not the end of the world as the MN is affected by additional players playing

- Round 3 / 4 the majority of ADE and MELS players BE are blatantly wrong .... if SC was a bank then a class action or royal commission would be instantly launched ...

 

[Pookus McFly]

Unfortunately one of the players I am most interested in is affected. Worrall is hard to pass up with -58 BE, but probably not worth it at 8 BE.

Makes all the difference for a DGW player with cash gen potential

 

[Tails]

Unfortunately one of the players I am most interested in is affected. Worrall is hard to pass up with -58 BE, but probably not worth it at 8 BE.

Makes all the difference for a DGW player with cash gen potential

Totally agree ....

 

[squid]

I had a pretty solid crack at this as well, couldn’t figure it out. There seems to be either an error or a random element that doesn’t seem to fit any of the semi-logical options I could think of.

Yeah i went through it too. It almost looks like they have taken the avg of the DGW scores for some players like Stoinis, while others like Maxwell looks like they have inputted game 1 and 2 the wrong way around on a DGW. Players like Salt and Wells the only possible thing i can think of is that they have taken the combined score from both games as if they only played one game as dorf has a simliar score/price/be from 1 game

Then there are the other Adl players that just dont have an explanation of how they could even make an error to get to those numbers.

 

[Darkie]

Yeah i went through it too. It almost looks like they have taken the avg of the DGW scores for some players like Stoinis, while others like Maxwell looks like they have inputted game 1 and 2 the wrong way around on a DGW. Players like Salt and Wells the only possible thing i can think of is that they have taken the combined score from both games as if they only played one game as dorf has a simliar score/price/be from 1 game

Then there are the other Adl players that just dont have an explanation of how they could even make an error to get to those numbers.

Good to get another opinion, thanks!

I’m getting Worrall because I think they still use the wrong game for DGR players, and Gold indicates he will make $30k if he scores 111 (presumably across the two games). I’d happily take that or even 2/3 of that.

 

[Tails]

Round 3 / Game 1 update (#10):

Notes:
- Fraser-McGurk can't go below $42k
- Any player that did not play will not receive the projections (greyed out)
- One X factor player was used by MELR (Hatzoglou subbed out without playing for Harvey)

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Gonna be some heavily discounted Renegades available in the lead up to their DGR.

 

[Tails]

Gonna be some heavily discounted Renegades available in the lead up to their DGR.

Yep .. think we can wait another round ... Marsh, Nabi, Finch, Webster. Richardson etc ....
- Could go early on Harper but 40 of his round 1 points came from the field ...

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Yep .. think we can wait another round ... Marsh, Nabi, Finch, Webster. Richardson etc ....
- Could go early on Harper but 40 of his round 1 points came from the feild ...

Absolutely. Aside from Noor for those who are keen, there’s no rush on any of them. Continue to wait and see how cheap they can get!

 

[Herbie66]

Gonna be some heavily discounted Renegades available in the lead up to their DGR.

Looking at their form line though , wouldn't be in a rush to field too many of them at the moment even with a DGR.

 

[7/11]

Absolutely. Aside from Noor for those who are keen, there’s no rush on any of them. Continue to wait and see how cheap they can get!

Not Roussow?

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Not Roussow?

BE of 38 and averaging 34 so neither here nor there.

 

[Johno69]

Absolutely. Aside from Noor for those who are keen, there’s no rush on any of them. Continue to wait and see how cheap they can get!

That umpire owes us Ben's Beasts for the Noor non dismissal ( it was close ). Nabi has come out of quarantine needing a gallop or two.
He looks pudgier then ever. Apart from some shocking individual performances there is something wrong with the brain's trust of the Renegades, maybe it was the absence of Finch. Your spot on about the prices but I will be a bit discerning about how many Renegades
I end up having for the DGW. Good luck with your team ( but not too much ) Ha Ha.

 

[Herbie66]

That umpire owes us Ben's Beasts for the Noor non dismissal ( it was close ). Nabi has come out of quarantine needing a gallop or two.
He looks pudgier then ever. Apart from some shocking individual performances there is something wrong with the brain's trust of the Renegades, maybe it was the absence of Finch. Your spot on about the prices but I will be a bit discerning about how many Renegades
I end up having for the DGW. Good luck with your team ( but not too much ) Ha Ha.

That's interesting because Nabi only played 1 game in the IPL.