Rucks Discussion

broges

100 Games Club
Joined
29 Sep 2012
Messages
633
Likes
92
AFL Club
Richmond
Thanks Jay.

I will still keep a close eye on Nic Nat, Sands and HMac. Last year I burned a lot of money on Maric whilst came out well with L'Berger. Likewise, am sure that coaches that picked Goldy from the start in 2013 would have been delighted. I am heavily swayed by Rowsus' superb article on rucks where he showed the unpredictable nature of picking the top rucks each year. Just my personal opinion but my plan for the rucks is start with value, earn some decent $$$ and then upgrade when the moment presents itself.
Hi Rowsus - very interested in your view regarding above. My thinking is that coaches tend to start with 1-1-2 rucks structure so I'm burning one more trade by selecting a value ruck player for R1 with a view to upgrading. Figure I can afford to strategically use 2 trades to upgrade R1 and R2 and use the $$$ saved to upgrade other lines such as MIDS. Completely crazy or is there some logic to the madness? Really appreciate your opinion on this strategy.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2014
Messages
6,980
Likes
11,114
AFL Club
Melbourne
Thanks Rowsus - I hear you re Kreuz's game count. Given this problem, do you like any of the following solutions:
1. Get Berger instead, or
2. Double upgrade from Sandi to Goldy and Kreuz to fallen premo (Minson, Cox ?), or
3. Start with Lobbe/Sandi and use the saved cash elsewhere ?

Thanks
Ps. Have been using the RAMP predictor today and have been loving the insights re scores and price movements across the season - it really adds an extra dimension to the planning process

Edit - just read Broges suggestion above and I think it is the same as what I am suggesting at item 3 above
 
Last edited:

Philzsay

Leadership Group
Joined
21 Mar 2012
Messages
10,459
Likes
15,013
AFL Club
Essendon
I am heavily swayed by Rowsus' superb article on rucks where he showed the unpredictable nature of picking the top rucks each year. Just my personal opinion but my plan for the rucks is start with value, earn some decent $$$ and then upgrade when the moment presents itself.
Just a bit further on that I was thinking whilst trying to go to sleep last night about the good old days of set and forget ruck strategy (As you do). It used to be so much easier as it was pick Cox and then figure out who the best other ruck would be for the year. Then add in a 200k odd 3rd ruck who was likely to play a large number of games. It was for myself more important R3 would play regular games even if only scoring 50 odd rather than be a cash cow.

Further I reckon the move from 20 to 30 trades now makes set and forget less important. As when you had 20 trades you needed to be more conservative to save as many trades as possible hence eliminating rucks from those 20 trades made life much simplier. Simple thinking but just an observation of my own ruck trading history.
 

Demolished

100 Games Club
Joined
13 Jun 2013
Messages
757
Likes
45
AFL Club
St Kilda
Hi Rowsus - very interested in your view regarding above. My thinking is that coaches tend to start with 1-1-2 rucks structure so I'm burning one more trade by selecting a value ruck player for R1 with a view to upgrading. Figure I can afford to strategically use 2 trades to upgrade R1 and R2 and use the $$$ saved to upgrade other lines such as MIDS. Completely crazy or is there some logic to the madness? Really appreciate your opinion on this strategy.
Definitely not mad to be considering this. Last year I was also burnt by Maric and Rowsus' article on the rucks only makes your idea more appealing. However, you should be prepared to waste more than 2 trades to fix your rucks throughout the season. One of HMac/Sandi could easily go down without making much cash. I would love to pick a top priced ruckman to set and forget but once bitten, twice shy. Lobbe and Sandi for me ATM.
 
Joined
28 Dec 2012
Messages
4,030
Likes
2,749
Hi Rowsus - very interested in your view regarding above. My thinking is that coaches tend to start with 1-1-2 rucks structure so I'm burning one more trade by selecting a value ruck player for R1 with a view to upgrading. Figure I can afford to strategically use 2 trades to upgrade R1 and R2 and use the $$$ saved to upgrade other lines such as MIDS. Completely crazy or is there some logic to the madness? Really appreciate your opinion on this strategy.
You would be using a minimum of
Of 3 but most likely 4 trades to
upgrade your R1 & R2. Doesn't make
it a bad strategy as long as you spend
the money on proven players not just
upgrading a rookie to a mid pricer in
another line.
 
Joined
9 Jan 2014
Messages
1,078
Likes
2,941
AFL Club
Essendon
Loving all the conflicting opinion and strategy in regards to rucks.

Alot of focus on fitness of Nic Nat and Sandi in the NAB Cup, but how much will we really know. Both will be managed so they can line up Rd 1.

We will still be taking massive risks on their fitness going into the season.

Current thinking is possibly only going with one of these two, not both. Too much risk for mine, with limited 'get out of jail cards to play' if things go pear-shaped.
 

Philzsay

Leadership Group
Joined
21 Mar 2012
Messages
10,459
Likes
15,013
AFL Club
Essendon
Loving all the conflicting opinion and strategy in regards to rucks.

Alot of focus on fitness of Nic Nat and Sandi in the NAB Cup, but how much will we really know. Both will be managed so they can line up Rd 1.

We will still be taking massive risks on their fitness going into the season.

Current thinking is possibly only going with one of these two, not both. Too much risk for mine, with limited 'get out of jail cards to play' if things go pear-shaped.
Re conflicting opinion just wait till we get into the season, the biggest conflicting opinion is between regular poster OzRulesFootball and Mick Malthouse! :)

Yes taking both NicNat and Sandi will be a risk. We won't be able to make the final call on them until after the Nab Challenge.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,684
Likes
67,996
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus - very interested in your view regarding above. My thinking is that coaches tend to start with 1-1-2 rucks structure so I'm burning one more trade by selecting a value ruck player for R1 with a view to upgrading. Figure I can afford to strategically use 2 trades to upgrade R1 and R2 and use the $$$ saved to upgrade other lines such as MIDS. Completely crazy or is there some logic to the madness? Really appreciate your opinion on this strategy.
I tend to agree with what some of the others have said, that if you come in with a "value" R1 you are probably looking at 4 trades to upgrade your R1 and R2. I think it's best if you start with 1 Ruck that has at least the potential to be a keeper, and fill the R1 or R2 position, so that you might at least potentially save yourself a trade or two.
Right now my own structure is waivering between Lobbe and Leuey, and Lobbe, Sandi and Hickey. I think anyone taking Sandi or HMac definitley needs to have cover and/or a contingency plan. I think the idea of taking both Sandi and Hmac is just too much risk. You nearly need to have cover for both, and that compromises your whole structure.
I'm interested that so many people that have suggested a R1, Sandi, back up Ruck at R3 structure have gone for Longer. In fact, I've hardly seen anyone suggest Hickey for R3, apart from myself, all the other Coaches that have gone for cover, have lumped for Longer. I'm not sure I understand this. I understand the bit about Longer being $34,200 cheaper, but the way I see it is this. St Kilda "let" McEvoy go well before they secured Longer. They would only do that, if they were satisfied the current back up (Hickey) was at a stage he could do a more than reasonable job of taking over from McEvoy. They couldn't rely on what they might be able to trade to, or draft down the track. It means to me, they have confidence in Hickey to do the job, and Longer was brought in as back up. The Coaches planning on starting Longer at R3 will most likely be forced into re-jigging their teams, if/when he is not selected in round 1.
I think it might be crazy to start two value Rucks at R1 and R2, but that comes down to what your definition of "value Rucks" is. I can see upside in both Lobbe and Leuey. Some people here will call them both value picks, some will just call the higher Midpriced selections. I'm happy with either definition.
Some might ask, why not Lobbe and Hickey then? While I am happy Hickey, is well placed and well priced, I am worried about the points I'll give up early, if I start him at R2. If I have him at R3 I will loophole him with R1 and R2 through King (Melb) leading up to the byes, then upgrade him.

Thanks Rowsus - I hear you re Kreuz's game count. Given this problem, do you like any of the following solutions:
1. Get Berger instead, or
2. Double upgrade from Sandi to Goldy and Kreuz to fallen premo (Minson, Cox ?), or
3. Start with Lobbe/Sandi and use the saved cash elsewhere ?
Yes, as you can see from above, I'm having the same dilemma.
I'm still undecided which way to jump. I think Goldy is a better pick than Minson, but I am concerned about starting too many players at top price, so I won't be going Goldy.
broges has the right idea, I think. History has shown the better Rucks tend to show themselves by rounds 7 or 8, and go on with job. Rather spend top dollar on Goldy/Minson, and risk losing $100k each on 2 side trades to the 2 Rucks that look like being the "ones" in 2014, I'd rather get a few points at value, until we can assess it properly.

Having said all of this, and responding to broges, if NicNat looks good, I'm throwing all those plans out the window, and building my Rucks around him.


Ps. Have been using the RAMP predictor today and have been loving the insights re scores and price movements across the season - it really adds an extra dimension to the planning process

Edit - just read Broges suggestion above and I think it is the same as what I am suggesting at item 3 above
I'm glad you're liking your RAMP tool. It can be a bit much to take in at first, when you start comparing expected price drops/rises, and trying to work out which players to take now, and which ones are best to take later (SJ looks like a gem of an upgrade just after mid season! ;)), but once you get used to it, it's pretty good. Of course, my opinion is very biased!
 
Last edited:
Joined
22 Feb 2013
Messages
9,669
Likes
20,537
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Anyone have any thoughts regarding Bellchamers?

(also - support your points about Hickey and Longer Rowsus)
 

broges

100 Games Club
Joined
29 Sep 2012
Messages
633
Likes
92
AFL Club
Richmond
Thank you very much Rowsus. My preference is R1 Nic Nat R2 Sands but long way to go. Will wait and see what transpires.
 
Joined
13 Apr 2012
Messages
6,029
Likes
15,788
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
The only worry I have with Leuenberger is what effect West will have on his scores, they liked to play Luey Forward last year, and inevitably when Brown goes down again I think Luey goes forward more and West does majority of the rucking.

But at the moment my Setup is basically the same as yours Rowsus Lobbe & Berger or Lobbe & Minson/Goldy.
 
Joined
24 Apr 2013
Messages
11,173
Likes
13,044
AFL Club
Carlton
Anybody taking a look at Apeness from Freo?
I wonder how many games he will play this season as I have him in my FWD line as a ruck DPP cover.
My current ruck setup is Lobbe/Grundy.
 
Joined
28 Jun 2012
Messages
5,423
Likes
3,701
AFL Club
Bulldogs
Loving all the conflicting opinion and strategy in regards to rucks.

Alot of focus on fitness of Nic Nat and Sandi in the NAB Cup, but how much will we really know. Both will be managed so they can line up Rd 1.

We will still be taking massive risks on their fitness going into the season.

Current thinking is possibly only going with one of these two, not both. Too much risk for mine, with limited 'get out of jail cards to play' if things go pear-shaped.
Is Zac Clarke going to be ready for round one now after his injury? If sandilands gets to ruck alone for a few games he may jump in value quick, with points before he gets injured
 

broges

100 Games Club
Joined
29 Sep 2012
Messages
633
Likes
92
AFL Club
Richmond
Definitely not mad to be considering this. Last year I was also burnt by Maric and Rowsus' article on the rucks only makes your idea more appealing. However, you should be prepared to waste more than 2 trades to fix your rucks throughout the season. One of HMac/Sandi could easily go down without making much cash. I would love to pick a top priced ruckman to set and forget but once bitten, twice shy. Lobbe and Sandi for me ATM.
Thanks for the feedback mate. Appreciate your confirmation regarding my interpretation of Sir Rowsus' ruck article.
 
Joined
28 Jun 2012
Messages
5,423
Likes
3,701
AFL Club
Bulldogs
I tend to agree with what some of the others have said, that if you come in with a "value" R1 you are probably looking at 4 trades to upgrade your R1 and R2. I think it's best if you start with 1 Ruck that has at least the potential to be a keeper, and fill the R1 or R2 position, so that you might at least potentially save yourself a trade or two.
Right now my own structure is waivering between Lobbe and Leuey, and Lobbe, Sandi and Hickey. I think anyone taking Sandi or HMac definitley needs to have cover and/or a contingency plan. I think the idea of taking both Sandi and Hmac is just too much risk. You nearly need to have cover for both, and that compromises your whole structure.
I'm interested that so many people that have suggested a R1, Sandi, back up Ruck at R3 structure have gone for Longer. In fact, I've hardly seen anyone suggest Hickey for R3, apart from myself, all the other Coaches that have gone for cover, have lumped for Longer. I'm not sure I understand this. I understand the bit about Longer being $34,200 cheaper, but the way I see it is this. St Kilda "let" McEvoy go well before they secured Longer. They would only do that, if they were satisfied the current back up (Hickey) was at a stage he could do a more than reasonable job of taking over from McEvoy. They couldn't rely on what they might be able to trade to, or draft down the track. It means to me, they have confidence in Hickey to do the job, and Longer was brought in as back up. The Coaches planning on starting Longer at R3 will most likely be forced into re-jigging their teams, if/when he is not selected in round 1.
I think it might be crazy to start two value Rucks at R1 and R2, but that comes down to what your definition of "value Rucks" is. I can see upside in both Lobbe and Leuey. Some people here will call them both value picks, some will just call the higher Midpriced selections. I'm happy with either definition.
Some might ask, why not Lobbe and Hickey then? While I am happy Hickey, is well placed and well priced, I am worried about the points I'll give up early, if I start him at R2. If I have him at R3 I will loophole him with R1 and R2 through King (Melb) leading up to the byes, then upgrade him.



Yes, as you can see from above, I'm having the same dilemma.
I'm still undecided which way to jump. I think Goldy is a better pick than Minson, but I am concerned about starting too many players at top price, so I won't be going Goldy.
broges has the right idea, I think. History has shown the better Rucks tend to show themselves by rounds 7 or 8, and go on with job. Rather spend top dollar on Goldy/Minson, and risk losing $100k each on 2 side trades to the 2 Rucks that look like being the "ones" in 2014, I'd rather get a few points at value, until we can assess it properly.

Having said all of this, and responding to broges, if NicNat looks good, I'm throwing all those plans out the window, and building my Rucks around him.




I'm glad you're liking your RAMP tool. It can be a bit much to take in at first, when you start comparing expected price drops/rises, and trying to work out which players to take now, and which ones are best to take later (SJ looks like a gem of an upgrade just after mid season! ;)), but once you get used to it, it's pretty good. Of course, my opinion is very biased!
How do you get this ramp tool?
 
Joined
28 Jun 2012
Messages
5,423
Likes
3,701
AFL Club
Bulldogs
Lmao historically I dont read all posts on various forums over the years. I've won heated debates on soccer forums by reading half posts lol. Plus I took a bit of a AFL fantasy break so have missed quite a bit. Only just returned this week for the FDL draft, which I had no idea about until Johno messaged me on the playstation lol. Otherwise i'd still be in hibernation.
 

Nk29

Captain
Joined
16 Sep 2012
Messages
5,595
Likes
96
AFL Club
Geelong
The only worry I have with Leuenberger is what effect West will have on his scores, they liked to play Luey Forward last year, and inevitably when Brown goes down again I think Luey goes forward more and West does majority of the rucking.

But at the moment my Setup is basically the same as yours Rowsus Lobbe & Berger or Lobbe & Minson/Goldy.
Don't worry about west. Rubbish player who won't get a game IMO. In years to come Brisbane will be kicking themselves that they let us get Jake Koladjashnij for him.
 

IDIG

Leadership Group
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
35,326
Likes
20,503
AFL Club
Essendon
My prediction...at least one of Nic Nat or Sandi will be subbed out within the first 5 rounds of the season. There, I said it.
100% agree. Was actually green vested in his first game last year and I suspect we'll see it happen again this year.

Doggies, Dees rounds 1 and 2, and GWS before their bye would be the games I'd expect him to either be vested or rested.
 
Top