Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Ratzondix]

I thought it was pretty clear I wasn't serious.

It would be interesting to know how many of the top finishers pick these mid pricers to start, and how many. Fairly sure guns and rookies has a much better success rate. As another who gets tempted by these mid pricers every season, maybe I'll try that myself one season. Maybe.

I think we were lucky with GNR when Giants and Suns were churning out rookies. Last few years feels more like limited rookies rd1 who can go out of the team quickly and some great rookies that spring up during the year. Likely this season there’s a pretty limited range to chose from and they might be of the poor JS/small fwd variety. Lack of footy last year probably stunted development and chances of 2nd year rookies getting a run. Time will tell but I’d be looking at some underpriced premos and breakout candidates as a back up.

 

[Santoz]

I think we were lucky with GNR when Giants and Suns were churning out rookies. Last few years feels more like limited rookies rd1 who can go out of the team quickly and some great rookies that spring up during the year. Likely this season there’s a pretty limited range to chose from and they might be of the poor JS/small fwd variety. Lack of footy last year probably stunted development and chances of 2nd year rookies getting a run. Time will tell but I’d be looking at some underpriced premos and breakout candidates as a back up.

My thinking also.

Leaning toward structuring my side so that I only have to have 2 rookies on each line to begin with.

 

[Ratzondix]

My thinking also.

Leaning toward structuring my side so that I only have to have 2 rookies on each line to begin with.

Also limited pre season games will be even less chance of evaluating rookies.
Current structure has 4 rookies back, 5 mid rookies, 4 fwd rookies, FD ruck rookie including benches. Means I’m running some value picks. Obviously not my final team but feel fairly comfortable with how it looks as I still have some heavy hitters amongst that lot.
Edit actually 5 rookie def currently but I have quite a few on my watchlist in the underpriced/MP range that I could bring in and free up cash.

 

[Herbie66]

I thought it was pretty clear I wasn't serious.

It would be interesting to know how many of the top finishers pick these mid pricers to start, and how many. Fairly sure guns and rookies has a much better success rate. As another who gets tempted by these mid pricers every season, maybe I'll try that myself one season. Maybe.

lol

no issue here whatsoever , totally took your post how it was meant 😀

 

[Under The Dome]

Is 5 rookies on field too few? Or am I Goldilocks and found it just right?

Can swap out Rowell for Dangerfield(If fit) by cutting Cumming for someone like Cox adding another rookie on field.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Like the team. Maybe less rookies will be the way this year. Specially the cheaper rookies apart from Rowe and cockatoo there isn’t many cheapies that will play early at this stage. It’s early days and hopefully I’m wrong.

 

[Shannon]

 

[Merv Neagle]

Is 5 rookies on field too few? Or am I Goldilocks and found it just right?

Can swap out Rowell for Dangerfield(If fit) by cutting Cumming for someone like Cox adding another rookie on field.

Best side I've seen to date. Heppell to a rookie and upgrade Ziebell is the only suggestion

 

[KLo30]

Well this escalated quickly. Darcy went from fittest ever to this.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352534174385598464

Ah Ruckmen. They get injured.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I thought it was pretty clear I wasn't serious.

It would be interesting to know how many of the top finishers pick these mid pricers to start, and how many. Fairly sure guns and rookies has a much better success rate. As another who gets tempted by these mid pricers every season, maybe I'll try that myself one season. Maybe.

Totally, was laughing when I wrote my comment. I probably underused emoji's to convey the same feeling!

Every year we start GnR and the team morph's in the last 24 hours when the rookies don't drop and we end up pick midpricers who just fail.

Trying to think if there has been analysis of what you have said, think I have seen or just noticed the difference is the teams that do well focus around injured players coming back like a Heppell rather than a Milera who may play midfield between now and 2025.

The key is the mid pricer must become a permanent player, if you trade them it still in theory can be a fail, despite being a stepping stone. This is if there was an alternative who was $100-200k cheaper and would have allowed another player to be upgraded.

The analysis by Rowsus many years back showed the most likely category to be a permanent players was one who started over $400k, smaller improvement needed to get there. However, get this wrong and you are unlikely to make money compared to a $300k player.

Fine line between pleasure and pain.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Cant bring myself to select Lloyd or Gawn due to price. Also really hesitant on Neale and Oliver who are both going to lose coin but all the real lock and load mids are overpriced.

Key forwards look cheap to me. Jezza first to go from the fwds but I can't help myself dreaming of what might be with him for now.
Kinda like Gaff. He seems well priced among a sea of 110 mids who are priced at overs. Dusty's a place holder. Deserves a slot for now.
Have toyed with Hickey are R3 and think it's worthy of consideration. Young could be 75+ i reckon.

View attachment 25104

Share your feeling on Lloyd Dimma. Feels very expensive. Time will tell how much he benefited from shorter quarters vs ball in defence more as the Swans fell away during the year. Happy to have a Gawn or a Neale as they also provide capt option, although expect they both are down 10 points on 2020.

I really like the Gaff pick up, the reverse of Lloyd/Covid impact if we go back to longer quarters. With Tim Kelly an extra year at WCE, he should improve as he understands our system better, which could see him get tagged more over Gaff.

The $500k is littered with promise, Cripps, Walsh, Rowell - are you tempted by the last two? would love to hear any insights.

Heeney hasn't made my team, too reliant on a good Swans outfit and buddy playing to get to the right scoring level. If he was in the midfield it would be a different story.

Like the BB pick. Could be 30 under vs Jezza 20 under. Jezza though may just get to a sub premium level which justifies keeping him. Adelaide, Hawks and North in 1st 5 games looks promising.

Preuss the hard one. Naismith was a winner last year week 1 (which you nailed) however the 2 months break was not kind to this strategy.

 

[Vicwood]

Well this escalated quickly. Darcy went from fittest ever to this.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352534174385598464

Ah Ruckmen. They get injured.

Rory Lobb now into consideration as a FWD.?

 

[PC]

View attachment 25139

Hmmmm, my structure is starting to look a bit funky after seeing this. Couple of picks in the team I don't really like either.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Here is my latest team, gone Guns and rookies. I’m going only to premo fwds because I don’t see much value up front. Pretty happy with it, would love some honest criticism.
Defenders

Rory Laird $564,800
Lachie Whitfield $561,600
Tom Stewart $538,000
Zac Williams $458,600
Denver Grainger-Barras $184,800
Lachlan Jones $139,800
Will Gould [E] $123,900
Jacob Wehr $117,300

Midfielders

Lachie Neale [V] $721,800
Clayton Oliver $656,700
Patrick Cripps $523,700
Matt Rowell $495,100
Tim Taranto $453,700
Will Phillips $198,300
Archie Perkins $171,300
Tom Powell $153,300
Finlay Macrae [E] $126,300
Phoenix Spicer $117,300
Alex Davies $102,400

Rucks

Max Gawn $751,400
Brodie Grundy $648,200
Josh Treacy $102,400

Forwards

Steele Sidebottom $588,000
Rowan Marshall $557,200
Jack Ziebell $257,900
Sam Flanders $192,300
Will Kelly $135,400
Nakia Cockatoo $123,900
James Rowe [E] $117,300
Beau McCreery $117,300
0$ remaining in the kitty.

 

[Connoisseur]

Here is my latest team, gone Guns and rookies. I’m going only to premo fwds because I don’t see much value up front. Pretty happy with it, would love some honest criticism.
Defenders

Rory Laird $564,800
Lachie Whitfield $561,600
Tom Stewart $538,000
Zac Williams $458,600
Denver Grainger-Barras $184,800
Lachlan Jones $139,800
Will Gould [E] $123,900
Jacob Wehr $117,300

Midfielders

Lachie Neale [V] $721,800
Clayton Oliver $656,700
Patrick Cripps $523,700
Matt Rowell $495,100
Tim Taranto $453,700
Will Phillips $198,300
Archie Perkins $171,300
Tom Powell $153,300
Finlay Macrae [E] $126,300
Phoenix Spicer $117,300
Alex Davies $102,400

Rucks

Max Gawn $751,400
Brodie Grundy $648,200
Josh Treacy $102,400

Forwards

Steele Sidebottom $588,000
Rowan Marshall $557,200
Jack Ziebell $257,900
Sam Flanders $192,300
Will Kelly $135,400
Nakia Cockatoo $123,900
James Rowe [E] $117,300
Beau McCreery $117,300
0$ remaining in the kitty.

Gets the tick of approval from me, mainly due to using all available cash. Nothing to complain about in the defence and the mid structure seems fine.

Replace Sidebottom with Dunkley or Dusty. Nice to see a side with Flanders but concerned with the structure up forward if we don't receive the required amount of fwd rookies.

 

[Ratzondix]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/541676/where-s-your-club-at-injuries-time-trial-king-pre-season-star

 

[Manikato1]

Totally, was laughing when I wrote my comment. I probably underused emoji's to convey the same feeling!

Every year we start GnR and the team morph's in the last 24 hours when the rookies don't drop and we end up pick midpricers who just fail.

Trying to think if there has been analysis of what you have said, think I have seen or just noticed the difference is the teams that do well focus around injured players coming back like a Heppell rather than a Milera who may play midfield between now and 2025.

The key is the mid pricer must become a permanent player, if you trade them it still in theory can be a fail, despite being a stepping stone. This is if there was an alternative who was $100-200k cheaper and would have allowed another player to be upgraded.

The analysis by Rowsus many years back showed the most likely category to be a permanent players was one who started over $400k, smaller improvement needed to get there. However, get this wrong and you are unlikely to make money compared to a $300k player.

Fine line between pleasure and pain.

This one?

 

[Herbie66]

Yes, it is important Ironhawk (who is an amazing contributor) to sometimes think about who you are replying to.

Love that Herbie is always thinking out of the box, however, he like many of us can be seduced by the dark side, some more than others.

Stay disciplined Herbie, remember that Rowsus once did a piece on how few mid pricers deliver, it is like thinking you can beat the casino.

Very few ever get there. My best season was when I packed the team full of high price certain premiums, only had to trade when they were injured. Going for overall, I accept you have to include some value.

Always found if anyone delivered, it was a fwd who goes to midfield who played it in junior level, think Dunkley, Tim Kelly. Rarely do defenders deliver, maybe a Williams who was ok, Houston and others tested me early last year. The difference is a true premium you will preserve with, someone who is breakout is likely to be traded if they don't deliver early (BrodieSmith, Houston).

hahaha maybe I am better off not playing or just copying your starting team 😀

I still believe our starting structure depends on the number of rookies available , without them their isn't much choice not to start cheaper players/fallen premiums/midpricers (whatever we like to call them)

Unfortunately with a salary restriction $ 500,000.00 k x 22 doesn't fit.

Probably not buying too many premium mids & rucks at that price either.

So something will have to give.

Once Big Bash finishes no doubt I will spend countless hours trying to fit the puzzle together (which is fairly pointless really until Round 1 teams are announced) but fun anyway.

Preuss , all those $ 300k mids & $ 200k forwards , so much fun 😉

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Gets the tick of approval from me, mainly due to using all available cash. Nothing to complain about in the defence and the mid structure seems fine.

Replace Sidebottom with Dunkley or Dusty. Nice to see a side with Flanders but concerned with the structure up forward if we don't receive the required amount of fwd rookies.

oooooh - I like a good flat '0' in the kitty. Haven't managed it yet.

All my players are placeholders until I see some preseason game time. I am going to go now and make my initial list of players with positional and price flexibility so that I can go directly to that list in the last hours before last teams, rather than suddenly plonk Zorks or Cunnington last minute because I had a brain fade. (just examples - still considering both). Will keep it updated and have my list of ranked players at certain price points ready to consider...

At the moment, my team looks horribly cookie cutter and like this:



Pretty busy this week where I am. Schools (which is where I work) have gone back to online for an unknown period of time. Things had been developing and feeling open for some time period too. Sort of reminds me that the upcoming AFL season may still have some considerable challenges looming due to unexpected lock downs and restrictions.

lol - team just changed again, but think this is the structure I
m going to fly with...

 

[Herbie66]

Here is my latest team, gone Guns and rookies. I’m going only to premo fwds because I don’t see much value up front. Pretty happy with it, would love some honest criticism.
Defenders

Rory Laird $564,800
Lachie Whitfield $561,600
Tom Stewart $538,000
Zac Williams $458,600
Denver Grainger-Barras $184,800
Lachlan Jones $139,800
Will Gould [E] $123,900
Jacob Wehr $117,300

Midfielders

Lachie Neale [V] $721,800
Clayton Oliver $656,700
Patrick Cripps $523,700
Matt Rowell $495,100
Tim Taranto $453,700
Will Phillips $198,300
Archie Perkins $171,300
Tom Powell $153,300
Finlay Macrae [E] $126,300
Phoenix Spicer $117,300
Alex Davies $102,400

Rucks

Max Gawn $751,400
Brodie Grundy $648,200
Josh Treacy $102,400

Forwards

Steele Sidebottom $588,000
Rowan Marshall $557,200
Jack Ziebell $257,900
Sam Flanders $192,300
Will Kelly $135,400
Nakia Cockatoo $123,900
James Rowe [E] $117,300
Beau McCreery $117,300
0$ remaining in the kitty.

Phoenix Spicer , have to pick him with such a cool name.