Discussion SC 2021: Starting Structure
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I once played in a league where one kid started the year with mainly rookies, few premiums and $2-3m in the bank. Potentially could have won the comp except he started the upgrade cycle too late and fell one win short of making the finals!
would need to run an alto to work out the perfect starting combo, expect it would be around 12 upgrades, 10 premiums allowing some correctional trades or 2 for 1 upgrades.
would need to run an alto to work out the perfect starting combo, expect it would be around 12 upgrades, 10 premiums allowing some correctional trades or 2 for 1 upgrades.
I guess since it's still only January , I see little point being locked into a structure at this early stage.
Obviously (like everyone) I have the team I would like to start , ultimately though that is fully dependent on rookie priced players named Round 1.
I fully appreciate people already are taking note of training reports etc etc and know more about the rookies than I ever well , but essentially until they are selected they are just names and a dollar amount to me.
Amazing already the posts are out that so and so and such and such are and will be a gun , please at least let them debut first and see if they can play at this level.
Could very well be a frustrating season for rookies so will need backup options.
Would have been interesting back in the days of the Suns & Giants just to have started their Round 1 side and then fill in the blanks and see how that went for the season before upgrading.
Hopefully enough rookies are named Round 1 so I can get my preferred 12 premiums to start.
Certainly can see value (or are they traps) in the forward line , time will tell
Obviously (like everyone) I have the team I would like to start , ultimately though that is fully dependent on rookie priced players named Round 1.
I fully appreciate people already are taking note of training reports etc etc and know more about the rookies than I ever well , but essentially until they are selected they are just names and a dollar amount to me.
Amazing already the posts are out that so and so and such and such are and will be a gun , please at least let them debut first and see if they can play at this level.
Could very well be a frustrating season for rookies so will need backup options.
Would have been interesting back in the days of the Suns & Giants just to have started their Round 1 side and then fill in the blanks and see how that went for the season before upgrading.
Hopefully enough rookies are named Round 1 so I can get my preferred 12 premiums to start.
Certainly can see value (or are they traps) in the forward line , time will tell
Basically have Heeney in at the moment who is priced where I consider the mid-price group begins but at that high end of the range it's essentially a premium choice.
If I go against Gawn then Marshall would be where the majority of that cash went. Need one of the mid price rucks to do something special (or a rookie to appear out of nowhere) before I'm really going to bother working with that scenario though.
If I go against Gawn then Marshall would be where the majority of that cash went. Need one of the mid price rucks to do something special (or a rookie to appear out of nowhere) before I'm really going to bother working with that scenario though.
Nope. Despite popular consensus, starting a lot of midpricers can work, they can even do alright as keepers. You just need to pick the right ones, that's the problem.
Check this post in the lock and load comp as an example. A lot of mid priced players, and the team is still averaging 2000+ for the season (different scoring system too - best 16 scores only):
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/lock-and-load-comp-iii-2020.4360/page-24#post-641437
As for the five you chose, who knows if they are the right ones. I do have a new nickname for Hately now at least, gotta love auto correct...
Check this post in the lock and load comp as an example. A lot of mid priced players, and the team is still averaging 2000+ for the season (different scoring system too - best 16 scores only):
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/lock-and-load-comp-iii-2020.4360/page-24#post-641437
As for the five you chose, who knows if they are the right ones. I do have a new nickname for Hately now at least, gotta love auto correct...
I find it easier to make a case against all of them than to make the case for (Heeney excepted). I'd be interested in hearing your case for them for a contrasting view point. (to be clear, I can make a case for all of them also it just feels a bit forced).
If you can nail them all and have a strong contingency there's really no reason you can't start 22, every year you can make a zero trade team that would win the comp!
I like to follow a process with each midprice selection:
1. Keeper potential - This is probably the biggest box to tick. Can they hit the premium level at their position? If you think it's a firm yes and likely, then the rest of this doesn't really matter, you should pick them. If it's a firm no then I'd be seriously questioning the pick (not saying no!).
2. Cash generation - Next step down, if they're a keeper this actually doesn't matter because you wont realise it. If you are at doubt on the keeper status then this is pivotal, essentially you're paying a premium on rookies and you're almost certainly losing cash generation. If you still think you can make 150k though, the JS and points on the field can o***et this quickly. Guys who can score massive scores are an added bonus hear, so Ben Brown for example who can kick big bags and score 130+, I'd be very surprised if he can be a keeper but I think he can make 200k if things fall right.
3. Bailouts - This one is big, it's great if you nail every pick but midpricers are coin-flips at best most of the time. Contingency plans are vital, it's why ruck midpricers are so deadly when they fail, there are very few bailouts (rookie or sideways) and you often get left chasing trades on it. Someone like Ziebell has a few other guys around him, a guy like Milera doesn't have as many (imo) other than all the way down or finding a way up.
4. Points gain - Are you actually better off? Milera and Rozee for example come in at $690k. What do you project for them? If it's say 85 each, that's 170 on field. Say you take Laird and a rookie instead, can Laird hold 105 and the rookie gets 65? More importantly, it's the rookie you field to consider as that's who gets pushed off, so it's Laird and the next up rookie forward. In this scenario you've got two non-keepers that need upgrading, the same on field points and less cash generation.
The other thing that gets missed is that midpricers always have a pairing. Every time you take a midpricer you've either got two of them or you've got to reduce a couple of premiums/rookie options to find the cash. Is that sacrifice worth it?
For me, item 1 is the most important always. If I think a guy can be a keeper then they can be a season defining pick and that's generally going to be worth the risk. FWIW I think all but Hately can do it in your group, not that I'm sold on them but "can" is important. Basically every good midprice pick I've ever made ticked this box. This is also why I far prefer midprice forwards and, to a lesser extent, backs (in DT backs are just as viable), the premium threshold is just so much lower.
One last thing is to remember that you can live with a guy about 5ppg below the true threshold if they're coming from far enough back. Ziebell for example averaging 95 (and the top 6 holding at 100) would still be a keeper level scorer purely from the outrageous value of the pick and saved trades.
If you can nail them all and have a strong contingency there's really no reason you can't start 22, every year you can make a zero trade team that would win the comp!
I like to follow a process with each midprice selection:
1. Keeper potential - This is probably the biggest box to tick. Can they hit the premium level at their position? If you think it's a firm yes and likely, then the rest of this doesn't really matter, you should pick them. If it's a firm no then I'd be seriously questioning the pick (not saying no!).
2. Cash generation - Next step down, if they're a keeper this actually doesn't matter because you wont realise it. If you are at doubt on the keeper status then this is pivotal, essentially you're paying a premium on rookies and you're almost certainly losing cash generation. If you still think you can make 150k though, the JS and points on the field can o***et this quickly. Guys who can score massive scores are an added bonus hear, so Ben Brown for example who can kick big bags and score 130+, I'd be very surprised if he can be a keeper but I think he can make 200k if things fall right.
3. Bailouts - This one is big, it's great if you nail every pick but midpricers are coin-flips at best most of the time. Contingency plans are vital, it's why ruck midpricers are so deadly when they fail, there are very few bailouts (rookie or sideways) and you often get left chasing trades on it. Someone like Ziebell has a few other guys around him, a guy like Milera doesn't have as many (imo) other than all the way down or finding a way up.
4. Points gain - Are you actually better off? Milera and Rozee for example come in at $690k. What do you project for them? If it's say 85 each, that's 170 on field. Say you take Laird and a rookie instead, can Laird hold 105 and the rookie gets 65? More importantly, it's the rookie you field to consider as that's who gets pushed off, so it's Laird and the next up rookie forward. In this scenario you've got two non-keepers that need upgrading, the same on field points and less cash generation.
The other thing that gets missed is that midpricers always have a pairing. Every time you take a midpricer you've either got two of them or you've got to reduce a couple of premiums/rookie options to find the cash. Is that sacrifice worth it?
For me, item 1 is the most important always. If I think a guy can be a keeper then they can be a season defining pick and that's generally going to be worth the risk. FWIW I think all but Hately can do it in your group, not that I'm sold on them but "can" is important. Basically every good midprice pick I've ever made ticked this box. This is also why I far prefer midprice forwards and, to a lesser extent, backs (in DT backs are just as viable), the premium threshold is just so much lower.
One last thing is to remember that you can live with a guy about 5ppg below the true threshold if they're coming from far enough back. Ziebell for example averaging 95 (and the top 6 holding at 100) would still be a keeper level scorer purely from the outrageous value of the pick and saved trades.
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Overarching 11-7-4, with 3 premos out of position, i.e. sitting in the mids. It's just where I am at this point. I hope a glut of rookies turn up and make me change this team. I'm running all 4 of the premo rookies Brown, Ziebel, Daniher (MP) through Impey (R). It. Is. A. Mess. But atm, it feels like 11-4-7.
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Absolutely right Herbie, rookies are short in supply in last few years, leads us to greater changes in the 1st weekend of football after fiddled with our structure endlessly.
At this stage rather than pushing envelope too hard in putting cheap rookies in side, i have a lot of the $200-250k injury returning players. That alone comes with risk.
Hopefully this year I will go in with more of a plan of where my alternatives are, including if I need an extra premium.
At this stage, a rowell or walsh can be downgraded freeing up $150k if needed. Martin or dunkley would be next picked in forward line.
The challenge is always any late changes because of lack of rookies leads to a pairs trade, someone usually downgraded on one line to spend more in another line. My current risk is if a daniher, brown dont play, the lower priced option is not evident.
Cooling on a lot of the breakouts myself, thought the comments on rozee were bearish, looked at caldwell junior numbers and unimpressed.
At this stage rather than pushing envelope too hard in putting cheap rookies in side, i have a lot of the $200-250k injury returning players. That alone comes with risk.
Hopefully this year I will go in with more of a plan of where my alternatives are, including if I need an extra premium.
At this stage, a rowell or walsh can be downgraded freeing up $150k if needed. Martin or dunkley would be next picked in forward line.
The challenge is always any late changes because of lack of rookies leads to a pairs trade, someone usually downgraded on one line to spend more in another line. My current risk is if a daniher, brown dont play, the lower priced option is not evident.
Cooling on a lot of the breakouts myself, thought the comments on rozee were bearish, looked at caldwell junior numbers and unimpressed.
