Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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Personally, I think the 2 super premiums I have the most confidence in are Neale & Oliver.
Both are very durable, both can produce monster scores (last year I traded Oliver into my team the week before his 200 so I am biased lol), both will almost exclusively play in the guts (hardly play fwd/ not suited).
I am really liking Adams as my M3.
Last year in the games Adams played alongside Treloar, he averaged 102 points per game. In the nine games without him, he averaged 116. In 2019 Adams averaged 108 when Treloar didn’t play.
Adams averaged 28 disposals, 13 contested possesions, seven tackles, six clearances and six score involvements per 100 minutes, for a 109 average overall.
As the pies main mid (Pendles is still a superstar but ageing) in his prime, I can see Adams pushing for a 120 SC average this season - he has a gun ruck to help feed him, enough body of evidence re scoring with no Treloar. With so many question marks over the other mids in his price range, I feel more comfortable picking than any other option at this point.
Both are very durable, both can produce monster scores (last year I traded Oliver into my team the week before his 200 so I am biased lol), both will almost exclusively play in the guts (hardly play fwd/ not suited).
I am really liking Adams as my M3.
Last year in the games Adams played alongside Treloar, he averaged 102 points per game. In the nine games without him, he averaged 116. In 2019 Adams averaged 108 when Treloar didn’t play.
Adams averaged 28 disposals, 13 contested possesions, seven tackles, six clearances and six score involvements per 100 minutes, for a 109 average overall.
As the pies main mid (Pendles is still a superstar but ageing) in his prime, I can see Adams pushing for a 120 SC average this season - he has a gun ruck to help feed him, enough body of evidence re scoring with no Treloar. With so many question marks over the other mids in his price range, I feel more comfortable picking than any other option at this point.
Can't say I love him as a pick. He's a butcher, so always going to be starting from firmly behind the 8 ball.
Last year was a full year of NicNat in absolutely optimal circumstances, with basically no Yeo, sadly looking possible again
, limited Shuey, limited Redden and no Hutchings. Basically he was their #1 midfielder and produced a 96, finished the last 6 at 96, last 9 at 90, his best season was a 103. He's just gone through the 3 year window that is generally the prime scoring period for gun mids.
It's always possible but I honestly struggle find a compelling narrative for why he'd improve? Is he going to learn to kick? Even then, is he going to get considerably more ball? Best case I can come up with is Yeo, Shuey and Hutchings at full strength, Hutchings doing the team things, the midfield dominating for more ball but that's already looking unlikely (Hutch and Yeo injuries still going) and really if I believed that, why not just take Yeo or Shuey who are cheaper and more proven, and realistically if that happens he goes more outside to a peripheral role.
I might be missing something on him but I can't even really construct the 110+ narrative on him and that's his minimum acceptable score at that price.
Last year was a full year of NicNat in absolutely optimal circumstances, with basically no Yeo, sadly looking possible again
, limited Shuey, limited Redden and no Hutchings. Basically he was their #1 midfielder and produced a 96, finished the last 6 at 96, last 9 at 90, his best season was a 103. He's just gone through the 3 year window that is generally the prime scoring period for gun mids.It's always possible but I honestly struggle find a compelling narrative for why he'd improve? Is he going to learn to kick? Even then, is he going to get considerably more ball? Best case I can come up with is Yeo, Shuey and Hutchings at full strength, Hutchings doing the team things, the midfield dominating for more ball but that's already looking unlikely (Hutch and Yeo injuries still going) and really if I believed that, why not just take Yeo or Shuey who are cheaper and more proven, and realistically if that happens he goes more outside to a peripheral role.
I might be missing something on him but I can't even really construct the 110+ narrative on him and that's his minimum acceptable score at that price.
Spot on @wogitalia
I really like Neale. Think he can go very close to sustaining or even improve, don't think he will but he can. At that level, that's pretty outstanding.
Like Oliver, there are concerns if Truck takes the #1 role if he can sustain that level and ultimately Truck should be their #1 if things go to plan (to much extra damage with the kicking). Think he should be fine but wouldn't surprise me if he settled back to 115 and hard to argue upside.
I personally really like Steele. Mentioned why previously, that said, he's probably fairly to slightly overpriced on most likely outcomes. Crouch I think just cements Ross' spot outside the middle and if anything helps Steele but he absolutely could cause issues. Throw in the breakout and the year it happened and I can totally understand people not liking him!
Macrae I'm uncertain, which isn't good at that price range. I don't think Treloar is a positive for him going to 125+. I don't like how he finished last year when they were full strength, +Treloar. I just think the case that he falls back to 110-115 is considerably stronger than the 125+ case. His durability just makes him even better as an upgrade target in the event that happens.
I really like Petracca. Contested bull with excellent footskills, scoreboard impact and an elite ruckman behind him is pretty good combination. He's Dangerfield with footskills if it all goes to plan. If he looks to be in great shape I'm bringing him back as my boy (technically think he was my boy when FFC died anyway so really I never let go!), he's the one guy I look at and say "that's a 130+ guy if things work" (Neale obviously already here). The main thing I generally want in super premium picks is a genuine upside case and I think he has it. Just hoping he's 2015 Dangerfield and not 2012
Bont I actually quite like and if they hadn't added Treloar I dare say I'd be starting him. 135 average over his last 8 games, I also look at him and see a 130 guy, fwiw, but for some reason he's the guy Bevo always shafts for the flavour of the month and his starting history the past 3 years is pretty ordinary. If he were to have the clear #1 role he finished with last year in the preseason with the others playing, I reckon I still could start him. Concerns enough so far he hasn't scraped a draft other than the "pre-trade" effort! I think he's kind of gotten forgotten though and probably should be in more teams. That Treloar trade has cocked up so many things.
Merrett I have no clue on role, he's one of the DT guys scoring well in SC types as well that I'm fading. Love the player and he can be 120+ but personally he's a candidate for let's see what Rutten is doing, probably fairly priced and I feel safe upgrading into in the event he goes boom. Which means, don't start me. Which to everyone else should probably mean, get all over it! Loved the way he finished the year though which always piques my interest, what I don't love is the relatively poor ratio in that period, which gets me back to the DT guy!
After that it's Fyfe/Kelly/Mitchell as the "if I ignore durability" candidates. Crouch/Adams/Rockliff as the "if I'm trying for a 115+" guys who I believe in but all carry durability questions. Wines/Anderson are my if I want something uniquely stupid. And then McCluggage/Brayshaw/Walsh for my young guy breakout options.
Throw in a Coniglio/Cripps in the break back candidates and I reckon you've covered every name I'm considering in the 500k+ group.
Like Oliver, there are concerns if Truck takes the #1 role if he can sustain that level and ultimately Truck should be their #1 if things go to plan (to much extra damage with the kicking). Think he should be fine but wouldn't surprise me if he settled back to 115 and hard to argue upside.
I personally really like Steele. Mentioned why previously, that said, he's probably fairly to slightly overpriced on most likely outcomes. Crouch I think just cements Ross' spot outside the middle and if anything helps Steele but he absolutely could cause issues. Throw in the breakout and the year it happened and I can totally understand people not liking him!
Macrae I'm uncertain, which isn't good at that price range. I don't think Treloar is a positive for him going to 125+. I don't like how he finished last year when they were full strength, +Treloar. I just think the case that he falls back to 110-115 is considerably stronger than the 125+ case. His durability just makes him even better as an upgrade target in the event that happens.
I really like Petracca. Contested bull with excellent footskills, scoreboard impact and an elite ruckman behind him is pretty good combination. He's Dangerfield with footskills if it all goes to plan. If he looks to be in great shape I'm bringing him back as my boy (technically think he was my boy when FFC died anyway so really I never let go!), he's the one guy I look at and say "that's a 130+ guy if things work" (Neale obviously already here). The main thing I generally want in super premium picks is a genuine upside case and I think he has it. Just hoping he's 2015 Dangerfield and not 2012
Bont I actually quite like and if they hadn't added Treloar I dare say I'd be starting him. 135 average over his last 8 games, I also look at him and see a 130 guy, fwiw, but for some reason he's the guy Bevo always shafts for the flavour of the month and his starting history the past 3 years is pretty ordinary. If he were to have the clear #1 role he finished with last year in the preseason with the others playing, I reckon I still could start him. Concerns enough so far he hasn't scraped a draft other than the "pre-trade" effort! I think he's kind of gotten forgotten though and probably should be in more teams. That Treloar trade has cocked up so many things.
Merrett I have no clue on role, he's one of the DT guys scoring well in SC types as well that I'm fading. Love the player and he can be 120+ but personally he's a candidate for let's see what Rutten is doing, probably fairly priced and I feel safe upgrading into in the event he goes boom. Which means, don't start me. Which to everyone else should probably mean, get all over it! Loved the way he finished the year though which always piques my interest, what I don't love is the relatively poor ratio in that period, which gets me back to the DT guy!
After that it's Fyfe/Kelly/Mitchell as the "if I ignore durability" candidates. Crouch/Adams/Rockliff as the "if I'm trying for a 115+" guys who I believe in but all carry durability questions. Wines/Anderson are my if I want something uniquely stupid. And then McCluggage/Brayshaw/Walsh for my young guy breakout options.
Throw in a Coniglio/Cripps in the break back candidates and I reckon you've covered every name I'm considering in the 500k+ group.
I’m currently considering running
Neale, Steele, Oliver, Fyfe/Mitchell, Adams as a set and forget mid (premium) lineup
Rowell - I’m a little unsure what our expectations of him are. Do we expect him to avg 115+ and end up on 600k for the season? I think he’s overpriced and the question stands whether he’ll be in your final 8 midfielders at the end of the season - for me it’s a no (most likely not), with 495k only 100k off a top 8-10 midfielder
Probably will end up regretting this decision not to go with Rowell lol
Neale, Steele, Oliver, Fyfe/Mitchell, Adams as a set and forget mid (premium) lineup
Rowell - I’m a little unsure what our expectations of him are. Do we expect him to avg 115+ and end up on 600k for the season? I think he’s overpriced and the question stands whether he’ll be in your final 8 midfielders at the end of the season - for me it’s a no (most likely not), with 495k only 100k off a top 8-10 midfielder
Probably will end up regretting this decision not to go with Rowell lol
Going pretty safe this year in the middle
Oliver and Macrae at m1 and m2 definite top 3/5 mids
Starting dusty at m3 knowing he’ll be a top 6 forward and will flick him there when the cows moo
Cripps m4 and Rowell m5
Cripps is a 110 guy and will be around that mark again. Rowell I’m not expecting 110+ I think he’ll be around 102-108 and that’s fine for an m8
With Heppell at m6 it’s deep enough and allows me to have the big guns in Gawn and Grundy along with the seagull down back to start
Will be targeting neale as my first upgrade target and feel he will be gettable at 650k in the first 8 rounds especially with the lack of pre season it seems he’s having
Oliver and Macrae at m1 and m2 definite top 3/5 mids
Starting dusty at m3 knowing he’ll be a top 6 forward and will flick him there when the cows moo
Cripps m4 and Rowell m5
Cripps is a 110 guy and will be around that mark again. Rowell I’m not expecting 110+ I think he’ll be around 102-108 and that’s fine for an m8
With Heppell at m6 it’s deep enough and allows me to have the big guns in Gawn and Grundy along with the seagull down back to start
Will be targeting neale as my first upgrade target and feel he will be gettable at 650k in the first 8 rounds especially with the lack of pre season it seems he’s having
You may well be right that he falls in price but that is rarely the problem with waiting for premiums to drop. The problem is you don't know when that will happen, will you have enough cash in that one or two round window, have you just got a bunch of LTI that you need to fix urgently, how do you get that rookie that has just gone ballistic and is a must have as he is on the bubble etc. You are taking the risk that he would need to have a shocker of start or you really need him to pull a dud score around rounds 5 or 6. A 5 or 6 rd dud could have him dropping enough and your best cash cow will be ready to get the chop around that time.
Macrae started poorly last year with his commencing salary $668k. He produced in his first 6 rds 3 90's and only two scores above 130 and he lost 90k. So that is the kind of start you are thinking Neale will have? Of course anything is possible but it usually comes done to what is likely to happen and not what could happen. My understanding is that a number of Brisbane mids are being managed in the pre season including Neale, Zorko, Robinson and Berry. I do not believe they are injured per se although they may be being careful with Berry as he is coming back from an inj (shoulder?).
I’m backing Neale to be 650k after 6 weeks
He hasn’t been training for weeks and it hasn’t been reported. He’ll be great this year but I feel he’s a better upgrade target. Will go sub 100 in round 1 and have a big b.e
Oliver and Macrae will be 115+ locks over the year and the extra 70k if used correctly can be beneficial
I’m going 3 of the big 4 in Gawn lloyd and Grundy so happy to be proven wrong on Neale
Can’t have everyone with the same teams now can we, Where’s the fun in that!!
He hasn’t been training for weeks and it hasn’t been reported. He’ll be great this year but I feel he’s a better upgrade target. Will go sub 100 in round 1 and have a big b.e
Oliver and Macrae will be 115+ locks over the year and the extra 70k if used correctly can be beneficial
I’m going 3 of the big 4 in Gawn lloyd and Grundy so happy to be proven wrong on Neale
Can’t have everyone with the same teams now can we, Where’s the fun in that!!
Start Fyfe and/or Jelly , first sign they break trade them to Neale 🤔
$ 650 k after Round 6 , would need a quick rookie downgrade for $ 150k and then upgrade someone who is $ 500k
interesting concept
Maybe starting 2 x $ 350 mid pricers would get the desired result after Round 6 as well.
$ 650 k after Round 6 , would need a quick rookie downgrade for $ 150k and then upgrade someone who is $ 500k
interesting concept
Maybe starting 2 x $ 350 mid pricers would get the desired result after Round 6 as well.
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I started Fyfe and jelly last year with the hope of them of exploding early before I traded them knowing they always get injured. True to form they both started strong but typically both missed games and got injured. It’s not a bad strategy if you go in knowing you’ll have to burn trades. Last year I was happy to burn extra trades and take risks knowing we had more then 30 but this year being back at 30 I’m going with safer types.
I only had 3 guys from my initial starting 30 that I kept for the whole year that weren’t rookies
That won’t be happening in 2021
Also the 2 mid pricers in the middle is a good shout as I’ve been looking at Heppell and t green for that exact reason
Get them both to 450k with a bit of luck by round 8 and you can get a super premo and a rookie with bulk cash in hand.
All about how you value placeholders/mid pricers in the scheme of trades
I only had 3 guys from my initial starting 30 that I kept for the whole year that weren’t rookies
That won’t be happening in 2021
Also the 2 mid pricers in the middle is a good shout as I’ve been looking at Heppell and t green for that exact reason
Get them both to 450k with a bit of luck by round 8 and you can get a super premo and a rookie with bulk cash in hand.
All about how you value placeholders/mid pricers in the scheme of trades
Have been Reading the lions among every other teams training reports and Neale has been managed all pre season
Do a bit of digging on big footy from watchers and it checks out. Not sure why but hasn’t taken part in any match sim yet and has been on light duties for weeks
No mention of injury so was going to keep it quiet for everyone else to figure out but cause this community is amazing I thought I’d flag it. It’s probably nothing of note but just something I’ve picked up
Do a bit of digging on big footy from watchers and it checks out. Not sure why but hasn’t taken part in any match sim yet and has been on light duties for weeks
No mention of injury so was going to keep it quiet for everyone else to figure out but cause this community is amazing I thought I’d flag it. It’s probably nothing of note but just something I’ve picked up
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Yeah for sure
Have been monitoring teams boards looking for anything of supercoach note and have heard nothing from the lions about Neale all pre season. Just thought that was strange then read he has been on light duties getting managed the last few weeks. Maybe that’s what happens at this time of year when you’re the reigning brownlow medalist but I know as a tiger fan I’m comparing him to our A grader in dusty who is in terrific shape and looks like he is amongst everything this pre season for a change.
Have been monitoring teams boards looking for anything of supercoach note and have heard nothing from the lions about Neale all pre season. Just thought that was strange then read he has been on light duties getting managed the last few weeks. Maybe that’s what happens at this time of year when you’re the reigning brownlow medalist but I know as a tiger fan I’m comparing him to our A grader in dusty who is in terrific shape and looks like he is amongst everything this pre season for a change.
Probably about time he does a preseason after a few years off
I'll be concerned when it extends to season proper, not as concerned given Robinson and Zorko have also been the same as the senior guys there.
Still worth keeping an eye on, don't need much wrong at that price for it to become a disaster quickly.
I'll be concerned when it extends to season proper, not as concerned given Robinson and Zorko have also been the same as the senior guys there.
Still worth keeping an eye on, don't need much wrong at that price for it to become a disaster quickly.
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Dusty has a history of turning up to preseason in fantastic shape, been noted several times since 2016 when I did a search. His slow start looks to be a function of him playing more forward in the early games and his building up into a frenzy prior to finals. Dusty is a unique beast, thinks differently to the standard premium and they have tapped into what works for him mentality to deliver when it counts.
Your post about waiting until Neale dropped to $ 650k sparked my attention , given his starting price is $ 722 k my initial reaction was whether a saving of $ 72 k would even be worth it.
Maybe if he does have a slowish start.
Given the table that was posted about the majority of rookies taking until approx Round 10 to make that "magic" $ 150k I thought their is no way you could do a traditional 1 down/1 up in Round 7 to get him unless the 2 rookies were going gang busters scoring wise (and then probably would not want to be trading them out).
Given we probably use 2 correction trades in Round 3 , need 12 downgrades to fund 8 upgrades that equals 22 trades already.
So 8 "spare" so deliberately starting Fyfe/Kelly to trade them out may or may not be a good idea.
So then the 2 midpricers idea came to mind , if they both got to $ 375k each it would then be a new $ 125 k rookie + $ 625 k to buy a premium.
Which could be a Neale , or Danger , or Gawn (maybe)/Grundy or Seagull or anyone if you set your start team up with DPP.
Not sure Ziebell/Daniher combo would rise enough by Round 7 , Caldwell/Green/Hately/Heppell/Sier certainly could (and could be more beneficial than starting Rowell/Taranto/Prestia/Cunnington/LDU price type who many seem to think have to score 110+ to be a success , personally think not too many coaches would ever have all 8 of their mids scoring 110+ so think expectations need to be lowered)
Harmes/Milera combo in defence could achieve the same.
Preuss/S Martin & Preuss/Hickey both are actually cheaper than Marshall/Treacy so could be another option.
Read somewhere that Draper has a favourable 6-8 week ruck draw so he could work in a combo as well.
I guess it comes down to timing as well and what other concerns/issues we have come around Round 6 - 9.
I guess ultimately the rookies will determine how many of these mid pricers we need to take so certainly worth considering and thinking about as a way to bring in premium (s)
Maybe if he does have a slowish start.
Given the table that was posted about the majority of rookies taking until approx Round 10 to make that "magic" $ 150k I thought their is no way you could do a traditional 1 down/1 up in Round 7 to get him unless the 2 rookies were going gang busters scoring wise (and then probably would not want to be trading them out).
Given we probably use 2 correction trades in Round 3 , need 12 downgrades to fund 8 upgrades that equals 22 trades already.
So 8 "spare" so deliberately starting Fyfe/Kelly to trade them out may or may not be a good idea.
So then the 2 midpricers idea came to mind , if they both got to $ 375k each it would then be a new $ 125 k rookie + $ 625 k to buy a premium.
Which could be a Neale , or Danger , or Gawn (maybe)/Grundy or Seagull or anyone if you set your start team up with DPP.
Not sure Ziebell/Daniher combo would rise enough by Round 7 , Caldwell/Green/Hately/Heppell/Sier certainly could (and could be more beneficial than starting Rowell/Taranto/Prestia/Cunnington/LDU price type who many seem to think have to score 110+ to be a success , personally think not too many coaches would ever have all 8 of their mids scoring 110+ so think expectations need to be lowered)
Harmes/Milera combo in defence could achieve the same.
Preuss/S Martin & Preuss/Hickey both are actually cheaper than Marshall/Treacy so could be another option.
Read somewhere that Draper has a favourable 6-8 week ruck draw so he could work in a combo as well.
I guess it comes down to timing as well and what other concerns/issues we have come around Round 6 - 9.
I guess ultimately the rookies will determine how many of these mid pricers we need to take so certainly worth considering and thinking about as a way to bring in premium (s)
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