Opinion SC 2021: Rate My Team

[Darkie]

Throwing this out there -

Is anyone considering running some contingencies if (dare I say it) the season is once again impacted and games have shortened quarters etc? Hypothetically, how would this change your player choice and team structure?

There is an assumption that now we are in 2021, 2020 is ancient history and everything is back to normal. Well...

Good thinking.

The main things that come to mind are: spread players across teams (avoiding a repeat of Ess vs Melb), pick especially durable players (/those you think are less prone to hammy type injuries?), and perhaps use the extra trades to make mid pricers more viable, especially if you thought the season itself may be shortened (increasing the importance of points on the board/reducing the importance of an elite finished team).

The spread of players is the main actionable conclusion in my view. I think there’s a lot of merit in picking durable players anyway.

 

[wogitalia]

This question doesn’t belong in a particular thread so will just ask it here.

Who do you rate as the best two players for our starting teams priced under 320k?

I think you can rule out anyone in the mids or rucks, I think if you went pure average that probably Heppell, Hately and Preuss are the best 3 but their positions mean they're 300k rookies.

I like Ziebell, think a move back suits him and at well under 320k he's better value than the guys above him.

Milera probably 2nd for mine, in the right role and fit he can push 95 and keeper status.

Like a few others but I actually think this is one of the leanest years at that price ever.

Throwing this out there -

Is anyone considering running some contingencies if (dare I say it) the season is once again impacted and games have shortened quarters etc? Hypothetically, how would this change your player choice and team structure?

There is an assumption that now we are in 2021, 2020 is ancient history and everything is back to normal. Well...

Just no, will endure that if it happens again but realistically it just means all the starting prices are fair. Preuss probably becomes a stronger R3 candidate as the rucks were the position with the most out there scoring spikes so his cash generation ability would be heightened. Other than that will worry about it if it happens and that's about it

 

[Ben's Beasts]

I think you can rule out anyone in the mids or rucks, I think if you went pure average that probably Heppell, Hately and Preuss are the best 3 but their positions mean they're 300k rookies.

I like Ziebell, think a move back suits him and at well under 320k he's better value than the guys above him.

Milera probably 2nd for mine, in the right role and fit he can push 95 and keeper status.

Like a few others but I actually think this is one of the leanest years at that price ever.




Just no, will endure that if it happens again but realistically it just means all the starting prices are fair. Preuss probably becomes a stronger R3 candidate as the rucks were the position with the most out there scoring spikes so his cash generation ability would be heightened. Other than that will worry about it if it happens and that's about it

Interesting comment re: ruling out midpriced mids and/or rucks as they’re expensive rookies vs midpriced fwds and/or defs.

Unless you’re planning on keeping the Ziebell’s and Milera’s which would therefore mean you expect them to average 90 at an absolute minimum, then aren’t they just considered expensive rookies just as Heppell, Hately and Preuss are?

 

[Ironhawk]

This question doesn’t belong in a particular thread so will just ask it here.

Who do you rate as the best two players for our starting teams priced under 320k?

Probably not the answer you are after either, but with the 640K usually I would rather spend up to around 520K on a premium and the rest on a rookie and back that combo in.

I have seen way too many names in the sub 320K bracket through the mid price madness comp entries, they all start to blur together after a while. There seems to be plenty of good options around that 320K price, possibly a few traps too. Whenever I get a new entry, I usually think that it looks like a strong side, and at least half the names will be 200K-320K.

From my main side, I would probably be looking at forward options in this range, or possibly 1 mid as your best options. Too many good premium options on other lines. I'll say Heppell and Ziebell solely based on previous scoring history (if fully fit) if I had to choose two.

 

[Lgndhen23]

anyone else taking sier if he lines up round one and performs decent in the preseason matches?

ive got him locked in atm

 

[wogitalia]

Interesting comment re: ruling out midpriced mids and/or rucks as they’re expensive rookies vs midpriced fwds and/or defs.

Unless you’re planning on keeping the Ziebell’s and Milera’s which would therefore mean you expect them to average 90 at an absolute minimum, then aren’t they just considered expensive rookies just as Heppell, Hately and Preuss are?

Have said it elsewhere but essentially:

Every pick is either a cash cow or a keeper, anyone in between those two things is a bad pick.

When assessing a midpricer I do, keeping it short, essentially 3 things.

1. Can they be a keeper? A yes here puts them in play no matter what. If I think they're likely to be a keeper then they're hard to go past.

2. Can they average +40 on their starting price and match a mediocre rookie? A yes above and a yes here puts them in the "why not pick them?" category. A yes only here has the question of can I get the same from a rookie? Is their JS/role that much better.

3. Can they put up massive scores that spike their price? Ben Brown was a great example of this. I don't think he's a yes on either of the above, not a firm one at least, but I do think he can score a couple of 130 type scores in a month, which has the effect of averaging significantly more. Basically it's the other way to be an effective cash cow.


Assessing on these criteria...

Ziebell - Yes, can be a keeper, ~95 average twice before in his career and if he has the role change I really like it for him. I don't think it's likely. Yes I think he can average 40+, he's priced at 48, has averaged 88+ 4 times and 84+ 3 times in the 7 seasons prior to LY, I think it's likely. I also think he's capable of big scores, especially if playing as a rebounding defender, this is also likely. So while I'd be picking him expecting a rookie, there is a glimmer at least.

Milera - Yes can be a keeper but I think it's quite unlikely. Priced at 58 I think he can do 40+ but I think it's quite unlikely. He can put up decent scores but I'm not sold on big scores. You'll notice here that 1 and 2 overlap, if he makes 40+ he'd be a keeper. Given I think it's far less likely than likely, he hasn't sniffed my teams but his position at least makes him a chance.

FWIW, Preuss I think is a solid 1. No 2. Yes 3. Yes which makes him a perfectly reasonable pick and I'm genuinely considering him at R3 at this point in time because I think he can make 200k (I like Gawn and Grundy as starting picks so it's R3, if something changes there, R2 comes into play). I don't like having a dead bench spot, you're handcuffing your cash generation, so he's in play, question is can I use that 200k elsewhere for genuine gains?

Heppell I think is a 1. Yes but very unlikely. 2 Yes 3. Yes. Again making him a reasonable pick. At his position though I think there will be enough 125k options with similar prospects that at this point he's unlikely to be in my team.

Then you have guys like Taranto who'd be a 1. Yes but unlikely, 2. No, 3. Yes but very hard to trade if he does. That puts him in play but makes him risky given I don't think I have the discipline to trade him if 3 happens before it has run out. Most of his price group fit that.

Rozee is a Y, N, Y guy as well but I'm not particularly sold on him still. Jeremy Cameron in the same boat. They're probably in the same place as Taranto, I'm not terribly convinced on the first Y and I'm not sure I have the discipline to move them if 3 happens because god I'd hate to move them and it turns out the first Y was correct!

Then of course there are guys like Franklin who is obviously a Y, Y, Y guy and yet I haven't thought about picking him to this point. That said, if he was there for round one you have to think about it.

This year I think the midprice crop is actually very thin, Preuss if he was a R/F would be a lock for me, alas, he's not. I just struggle to see many that are well balanced keeper chances that can not get there and still succeed because the vast majority are in the 75+ pricing range where it's keeper or bust and the odds of hitting in that group are just not very good. Last year on the flipside was a great year with a lot of decent options. Perhaps the preseason games will change this. Someone like Toby Greene playing midfield for example would shoot to my first picked forward.

 

[wogitalia]

anyone else taking sier if he lines up round one and performs decent in the preseason matches?

ive got him locked in atm

I mean he's a chance but not at the moment. JS is a concern, role will be a concern and no proven scoring record. Prefer Heppell or Hately for those reasons at the same price, but as I said above, not a huge fan of any of them

 

[BIGB0Y]

I’ve got a player from every team in my starting 22 except the dogs. For me there all wait and see, upgrade targets if there doing good.

 

[Vicwood]

Laird Stewart and Williams, No Lloyd, because you cannot have them all. Just feel one premium short in defense, all depends on the rookies.

Parker and Gaff not popular picks, but both well priced and reliable. Cripps at 523k is a absolute lock. Hately, just like his game and with the move to the crows, well it’s a nice fit. Should see plenty of the Sherrin, expecting a push to a 90 average to his bye round.

Not messing with the rucks.

Dunkley and Marshall only ones of interest. Daniher in the Loins FWD line, yes please, I can just see him post a couple of big scores in the first 6 weeks. Zieball has the proven history to say he will push close to keeper level, half back roll would be a bonus.

Have 98k to play with when the rookies show themselves.

 

[Shannon]

Laird Stewart and Williams, No Lloyd, because you cannot have them all. Just feel one premium short in defense, all depends on the rookies.

Parker and Gaff not popular picks, but both well priced and reliable. Cripps at 523k is a absolute lock. Hately, just like his game and with the move to the crows, well it’s a nice fit. Should see plenty of the Sherrin, expecting a push to a 90 average to his bye round.

Not messing with the rucks.

Dunkley and Marshall only ones of interest. Daniher in the Loins FWD line, yes please, I can just see him post a couple of big scores in the first 6 weeks. Zieball has the proven history to say he will push close to keeper level, half back roll would be a bonus.

Have 98k to play with when the rookies show themselves.
View attachment 25990

Really like this side overall, with the 97K left you could upgrade Kelly to Impey at F5 (212K, Sam Mitchell has confirmed he will be playing as a half back/ lucrative scoring role) - young key fwds don't score well normally in SC. Alternatively you could upgrade Parker to Steele/Petracca so get another super premium in the mids - Parker has averaged 106,105 & 103 last 3 years, really need your mid premiums to average 110 so not sure if he can quite reach that level. Might just add that I do love him as a player, just a real hard nut.

 

[Under The Dome]

Laird Stewart and Williams, No Lloyd, because you cannot have them all. Just feel one premium short in defense, all depends on the rookies.

Parker and Gaff not popular picks, but both well priced and reliable. Cripps at 523k is a absolute lock. Hately, just like his game and with the move to the crows, well it’s a nice fit. Should see plenty of the Sherrin, expecting a push to a 90 average to his bye round.

Not messing with the rucks.

Dunkley and Marshall only ones of interest. Daniher in the Loins FWD line, yes please, I can just see him post a couple of big scores in the first 6 weeks. Zieball has the proven history to say he will push close to keeper level, half back roll would be a bonus.

Have 98k to play with when the rookies show themselves.
View attachment 25990

It's actually similar to mine. I have Macrae over Neale,Danger over Parker and Docherty over Williams. A few higher priced rookies over Hately though and will change when named.

 

[jel]

Here's my current side.
Need to see what rookies present for Rd1, so could drop a keeper from DEF.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Here's my current side.
Need to see what rookies present for Rd1, so could drop a keeper from DEF.

View attachment 25995

Taylor Adams injured and Mitchell question marks for round 1. Structure solid, 4 breakout players who may not be top 10 plus a pricey Hately.

Mills and Dunks have some risk, not huge though, yet combined with all the other selections the odds may be against you.

 

[wogitalia]

Laird Stewart and Williams, No Lloyd, because you cannot have them all. Just feel one premium short in defense, all depends on the rookies.

Parker and Gaff not popular picks, but both well priced and reliable. Cripps at 523k is a absolute lock. Hately, just like his game and with the move to the crows, well it’s a nice fit. Should see plenty of the Sherrin, expecting a push to a 90 average to his bye round.

Not messing with the rucks.

Dunkley and Marshall only ones of interest. Daniher in the Loins FWD line, yes please, I can just see him post a couple of big scores in the first 6 weeks. Zieball has the proven history to say he will push close to keeper level, half back roll would be a bonus.

Have 98k to play with when the rookies show themselves.
View attachment 25990

Like the team, think your PODs are solid durable types, which every POD should have unless they've got outrageous scoring potential instead!

Hately the question for mine. At 90 he's a rookie (124k) averaging 56, would want that 90 to be the lowest you think he scores to be looking there. If you think 90 is a strong outcome for him then I don't think the pick holds up. Need to looking 95 baseline and thinking 100+ is a genuine chance.

I like Hately and I don't think 90 is unreasonable, just questioning whether it's on the high end or low end of your expectations. I actually think he can go higher, my problem is I also think there's a strong story he goes a lot lower.

 

[Pieman17]

Like the team, think your PODs are solid durable types, which every POD should have unless they've got outrageous scoring potential instead!

Hately the question for mine. At 90 he's a rookie (124k) averaging 56, would want that 90 to be the lowest you think he scores to be looking there. If you think 90 is a strong outcome for him then I don't think the pick holds up. Need to looking 95 baseline and thinking 100+ is a genuine chance.

I like Hately and I don't think 90 is unreasonable, just questioning whether it's on the high end or low end of your expectations. I actually think he can go higher, my problem is I also think there's a strong story he goes a lot lower.

I’d say an average of 90 is a win. Likely makes more cash than the 5th/6th best mid rookie and gives you great of field scoring. His JS would also be considering higher than the rookies.

This could prove to be way off, just depends on the group of rookies we get this year.

 

[wogitalia]

I’d say an average of 90 is a win. Likely makes more cash than the 5th/6th best mid rookie and gives you great of field scoring. His JS would also be considering higher than the rookies.

This could prove to be way off, just depends on the group of rookies we get this year.

It depends on the rookies but 55 is low, even by last couple of rookie standards. That's Budarick level forgettable as a rookie and that's Hately's level of on-field input. He might be comparing with the last bench guy on cash generation but he's competing with the 3rd/4th rookie on field. Last year that was a solid 70 average, which is ~15 points better on field scoring than Hately gives you at 90 assuming you break even on the cash used elsewhere. That's a lot of points to lose by paying 180k more.

The rookie crop might be putrid and force the hand and his JS is nice and I do think he has price spike ability which can make his cash generation much better but I think a lot of people look way too much at a raw number and see 90 and think that's better than 70 for 180k less, it's actually 15 points worse unless you blow the money in which case it's on you, the 70 is still better value.

Think of it like this.

Hately $310,300 + Andrews (sample at right price) $469,700 vs Mead (sample) $123,900 + Oliver $656,700

Hately + Andrews, assuming Hately at 90 and Andrews is fair value, you get 177 points for the $780,000.

Mead + Oliver, assuming Mead at 55 and Oliver is fair value, you get 177 points for $780,600. (slight rounding as Oliver/Andrews not a perfect price match and haven't rounded the rookie for an identical improvement)

Now, yes, there are finite spots on the field but Hately at 90 is giving you as much on-field value as a 55 point 124k rookie, a score you'd certainly hope to beat from your best few rookie mids.

 

[wogitalia]

Had a few injuries totally derail the previous draft so went with something a bit different. Think I've quite quickly fell into a few groups of picks where I'm picking a couple of names.

Laird - Probably the 3rd lock in my team right now.
Mills - Like him as a mid to improve, really like him! When he plays defense in round one I'll melt.
Doch - Value pick, still tossing it up but I like about 20 guys here.
Rooks - Risky amount so see what happens. Need starters and depth.

Structurally risky right now but no problem finding more back premiums if forced.

Neale - Like him for ~130. That's strong enough.
Petracca - Like him to push towards 125. Like Oliver and Steele the next most but Petracca has the most genuine upside for mine.
Walsh - Risky M7 pick but he's a gun player. Need to see him inside and Williams more outside or I'll probably take Williams down back and find a use for the cash instead. Durability has been excellent which is the bonus. I also like Clug here.
Cripps - Locked for now. Picked as an M3.
Rowell - I'm not sold but this was the final pick and he's the least dangerous in that price, if he works and I have him, I'm fine, if he goes boom and I don't, trouble. Picked as M8, which for me means I'm aiming 110+.

Rookies - Pretty conservative, can convert Walsh/Rowell types to safer plays elsewhere probably.

Gawn - I think he can stay 130+, even 135 range but he's probably the one I most like to free up significant cash if needed.
Grundy - A lock for mine.
Preuss - Probably the most interesting pick. Basically seeing how the structure works out as I think he's a genuinely strong rookie choice and I hate a dead cash spot to start. Feels like I end up picking better "value" options elsewhere as the premium on other rookies which is fraught with danger but also a strong path to a big start.

Clearly still no idea here!

Dunkley - Most upside.
Marshall - Still like but this pick feels off.
Hogan - Haven't seen him mentioned, only time he played in a decent side he averaged 92. Would need to look in ripping shape in the preseason but best forward in a side I still rate is worth some discussion.
Ziebaniher - Locked for now.

Rookies - Might end up taking more, which means no Marshall/Dunkley/Hogan types.

Structurally I quite like Cameron and Rozee also as breakout contenders, ultimately Hogan has a non-keeper end game those two lack as much of, Cameron I think starts strong though as new team will look to feed him and I do like him higher up the ground. I look at those two as perhaps a pair I'd take together though if rookies are very sparse.

A few discussion points if nothing else but mostly pretty vanilla again. Seems like so many picks just kind of stand out over the others to me that I'm struggling to get variance.

 

[Professor]

ok 1st attempt at a team after autofill. I'm going without Gawn, Grundy and Neale. I don't usually pick too many Carlton players, but think, this is the year to do it. Stef Martin in the ruck or forward will get some nice ball coming his way, unless Treloar is kicking it. Still not familiar with the rookies, so don't take too much notice.

 

[Herbie66]

ok 1st attempt at a team after autofill. I'm going without Gawn, Grundy and Neale. I don't usually pick too many Carlton players, but think, this is the year to do it. Stef Martin in the ruck or forward will get some nice ball coming his way, unless Treloar is kicking it. Still not familiar with the rookies, so don't take too much notice.

View attachment 26004

surely you can fit Doc & Setterfield in as well 😀

where is your boy Jack ? or Hogan

certainly different to others

 

[Shannon]

Had a few injuries totally derail the previous draft so went with something a bit different. Think I've quite quickly fell into a few groups of picks where I'm picking a couple of names.

Laird - Probably the 3rd lock in my team right now.
Mills - Like him as a mid to improve, really like him! When he plays defense in round one I'll melt.
Doch - Value pick, still tossing it up but I like about 20 guys here.
Rooks - Risky amount so see what happens. Need starters and depth.

Structurally risky right now but no problem finding more back premiums if forced.

Neale - Like him for ~130. That's strong enough.
Petracca - Like him to push towards 125. Like Oliver and Steele the next most but Petracca has the most genuine upside for mine.
Walsh - Risky M7 pick but he's a gun player. Need to see him inside and Williams more outside or I'll probably take Williams down back and find a use for the cash instead. Durability has been excellent which is the bonus. I also like Clug here.
Cripps - Locked for now. Picked as an M3.
Rowell - I'm not sold but this was the final pick and he's the least dangerous in that price, if he works and I have him, I'm fine, if he goes boom and I don't, trouble. Picked as M8, which for me means I'm aiming 110+.

Rookies - Pretty conservative, can convert Walsh/Rowell types to safer plays elsewhere probably.

Gawn - I think he can stay 130+, even 135 range but he's probably the one I most like to free up significant cash if needed.
Grundy - A lock for mine.
Preuss - Probably the most interesting pick. Basically seeing how the structure works out as I think he's a genuinely strong rookie choice and I hate a dead cash spot to start. Feels like I end up picking better "value" options elsewhere as the premium on other rookies which is fraught with danger but also a strong path to a big start.

Clearly still no idea here!

Dunkley - Most upside.
Marshall - Still like but this pick feels off.
Hogan - Haven't seen him mentioned, only time he played in a decent side he averaged 92. Would need to look in ripping shape in the preseason but best forward in a side I still rate is worth some discussion.
Ziebaniher - Locked for now.

Rookies - Might end up taking more, which means no Marshall/Dunkley/Hogan types.

Structurally I quite like Cameron and Rozee also as breakout contenders, ultimately Hogan has a non-keeper end game those two lack as much of, Cameron I think starts strong though as new team will look to feed him and I do like him higher up the ground. I look at those two as perhaps a pair I'd take together though if rookies are very sparse.

A few discussion points if nothing else but mostly pretty vanilla again. Seems like so many picks just kind of stand out over the others to me that I'm struggling to get variance.

View attachment 26001

Like it overall mate but I just can’t have a 300K player on the bench despite your justification tbh.

Hogan ... wow, gutsy play - much risk attached.

Going to sound boring but how about Impey at 212K playing as a rebounding half back instead, Tracey at R3 for the capt loophole & link to Marshall, upgrade Hollands to Heppell which would make your side look more solid overall I believe.