Opinion SC 2021: Rate My Team

[Herbie66]

Just to see how it looks, I have made a team with just Marshall as the only fwd premium which allows a stacked midfield - Taranto at M7 :-

View attachment 26014

It would be certainly fairly unique - doubt I would have the guts to go this way though.

Swap Gaff & Jones to Campbell & Docherty (eg) and it gets even more exciting 😀

 

[GrainFedBeef]

changed up the structure a little bit

going with 3-5-2-3 now

rowan marshall not in the team is the major difference
View attachment 26006

one of the best 13 premium teams I have seen. genuine players, not hopeful keepers.

feels like you are running though with unlikely rookie depth.

 

[Woodsey]

Change in structure going against the grain with no Gawn.
Feel like at worst Pruess will be making 150-200k and with a low score Gawns price (could) drop by Rd 6.
Also gone quite mid-price in the fwd line.
I feel like every year I start off with a few bolters and then my team will become more cookie cutter post NAB series when the rookies show themselves.

 

[Connoisseur]

Current side:


Witherden vying with Lukosius and Docherty for the D4 spot.
Very happy with the current structure until preseason matches.

 

[Herbie66]

yay got my $ 0.00 remaining side completely by accident

12 possible keepers
4 mid pricers
and realistic rookie prices 😀

Laird * , Daniel , Stewart , Crisp , Grainger-Barass , Jones / Gould , Laurie *

Neale , Oliver , Cripps , Rowell , Taranto , Heppell , Phillips , Campbell * / Macrae * , Cockatoo * , Durdin *

Gawn , Grundy / Fullarton *

Marshall * , Ziebell , Daniher , Impey , Cahill , Kelly / Jones , Rowe

 

[Professor]

Some interesting discussion, thought I'd post here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359003749352579072

 

[Ratzondix]

Some interesting discussion, thought I'd post here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359003749352579072

This relies on absolutes a bit. Some rookies will probably make more than 150k and you usually get a few players coming off a bad patch or an injury game at a discount. Closer to the end of the season you can bring in DPP donuts for 102k as well. Probably harder to bring in a Gawn or Neale if they don’t drop much in price but this has given me a bit to think about regarding starting selections.

 

[Leroy]

I had a 13 keeper side that looked nice, but safe with very few risks. And who doesn't want to live on the edge a bit?

I've canned the two high-priced rookies for now (Phillips and DGB) to see what a team can look like without them and here it is. Rise of the young guns, 20k in reserve.

 

[wogitalia]

This relies on absolutes a bit. Some rookies will probably make more than 150k and you usually get a few players coming off a bad patch or an injury game at a discount. Closer to the end of the season you can bring in DPP donuts for 102k as well. Probably harder to bring in a Gawn or Neale if they don’t drop much in price but this has given me a bit to think about regarding starting selections.

My numbers say it's 2.4 trades per upgrade at $550k target price needing 177k cash generation per rookie if you need 10 upgrades and keeping 6 trades for LTI/Corrections. I think generally you'd hope to get the majority of your upgrades for less than 550k, drops to 155k a rookie if you go to 500k which is achievable. It certainly drops rapidly if you can start 13 or 14 premiums though. 14 drops it to 140k and 3 trades per upgrade. It does highlight what starting value can do, of course if you go for 14 and end up with 10 you're in big trouble!

 

[Mudflap]

Take 3. Still holding strong on my plan of going light in the rucks. Not sure I will be able to hold my nerve on that call.

 

[wogitalia]

Going for something I hadn't done as yet, looking past the premiums down back and finding some value picks instead...

Laird - Lock.
Williams - At worst I think he's fairly priced but I've always liked him as a player and don't think 100 is beyond him at all.
Duggan - Under the radar for sure. Like Williams, like the player and like the role change he's likely going to get. Think he would go 85+ barring injury but has 100 potential also.
Lukosius - Really like him, think he's a 90 guy on natural improvement, role improvement (intercept) and he's a 100+ guy.

Basically I'm trying to value hunt for the D4-6 picks. Would leave me watching for Whitfield, Mills, Doch, Lloyd et al for the last couple of spots. Would rather one of these in the forwards but I don't see the player.

Neale - Flirted with ditching him but didn't really get me anywhere to be honest as I just don't like the guys between Crouch and Petracca.
Steele - Just like him.
Petracca - Ditto.
Crouch - I think the best value, has sustained 120 type scoring for a half season twice now, just needs to be fit and focused, both have been problems.
Walsh - Aiming for a M8 out of him, ~110.
Cripps - See him as a M4+ type.

Will mix up the rucks when I see a reason, Preuss out in this side meant an extra mid premium, so was worth it.

Marshall - Have to go him for ruck cover in this team. Still don't love him as a starting pick outside of that really.
5 Rookies - Basically. Could manufacture for Impey here also but basically Daniher, Ziebell are only durability risks, they play if fit in good roles and are good value. Rookies just need 5, with Impey an option if hand is forced. Knowing my luck there will be 6 good back rookies and no forwards, forcing me to pick a whole heap of guys I really don't want (on a positive, would make a real interesting season with so much variability up forward).

This is definitely a structure that I like. There's always the option to ditch Gawn and push at least a couple of the back rookies up as well.

 

[wogitalia]

Take 3. Still holding strong on my plan of going light in the rucks. Not sure I will be able to hold my nerve on that call.

View attachment 26035

Holy midprice batman!

I think there are too many of them and it always pains me to say that. Sholl, Cumming, Coniglio, Cripps, Simpkin, Draper, Preuss, Greene, Heeney and Phillips is an awful lot of ifs. I'd question what you see from Draper, see very little way that you're not better off starting Marshall in the rucks over him and just picking another forward rookie instead and then using that cash to maybe bump up some of the midprice stuff, just can't see the 105+ season from him.

I mean I don't mind the mids but Duncan and Coniglio have never hit higher than a passable M8 level and have had some role issues over the past couple of seasons (and durability). Cripps and Mitchell also have durability issues and Simpkin has never hit the level (I like him a lot as a player though!). It kind of feels like you've picked 3 starting M8s and two risky M4+ types, leaving just two upgrade slots.

Greene and Heeney is an awful lot of durability and role concerns comboed into Phillips whose best season is a 90 and who is a butcher that seems unlikely to ever have a positive ratio and thus is going to need to hit a really high level, a level no winger has gotten close to at Hawthorn, to be a passing grade. I really like Phillips as a DT pick though!

 

[Shannon]

Going for something I hadn't done as yet, looking past the premiums down back and finding some value picks instead...

Laird - Lock.
Williams - At worst I think he's fairly priced but I've always liked him as a player and don't think 100 is beyond him at all.
Duggan - Under the radar for sure. Like Williams, like the player and like the role change he's likely going to get. Think he would go 85+ barring injury but has 100 potential also.
Lukosius - Really like him, think he's a 90 guy on natural improvement, role improvement (intercept) and he's a 100+ guy.

Basically I'm trying to value hunt for the D4-6 picks. Would leave me watching for Whitfield, Mills, Doch, Lloyd et al for the last couple of spots. Would rather one of these in the forwards but I don't see the player.

Neale - Flirted with ditching him but didn't really get me anywhere to be honest as I just don't like the guys between Crouch and Petracca.
Steele - Just like him.
Petracca - Ditto.
Crouch - I think the best value, has sustained 120 type scoring for a half season twice now, just needs to be fit and focused, both have been problems.
Walsh - Aiming for a M8 out of him, ~110.
Cripps - See him as a M4+ type.

Will mix up the rucks when I see a reason, Preuss out in this side meant an extra mid premium, so was worth it.

Marshall - Have to go him for ruck cover in this team. Still don't love him as a starting pick outside of that really.
5 Rookies - Basically. Could manufacture for Impey here also but basically Daniher, Ziebell are only durability risks, they play if fit in good roles and are good value. Rookies just need 5, with Impey an option if hand is forced. Knowing my luck there will be 6 good back rookies and no forwards, forcing me to pick a whole heap of guys I really don't want (on a positive, would make a real interesting season with so much variability up forward).

This is definitely a structure that I like. There's always the option to ditch Gawn and push at least a couple of the back rookies up as well.

View attachment 26034

Really like it Wogi, couple of guys I am not sold on but certainly see the appeal - 1 fwd premium setup looks a winner lol.

Can you give us some insight on Campbell- that left foot is a real weapon! Read he was used in a quarterback role in the swans practice game which sounds very enticing.
How do you rate his prospects for this year?

 

[Ironhawk]

Going for something I hadn't done as yet, looking past the premiums down back and finding some value picks instead...

Laird - Lock.
Williams - At worst I think he's fairly priced but I've always liked him as a player and don't think 100 is beyond him at all.
Duggan - Under the radar for sure. Like Williams, like the player and like the role change he's likely going to get. Think he would go 85+ barring injury but has 100 potential also.
Lukosius - Really like him, think he's a 90 guy on natural improvement, role improvement (intercept) and he's a 100+ guy.

Basically I'm trying to value hunt for the D4-6 picks. Would leave me watching for Whitfield, Mills, Doch, Lloyd et al for the last couple of spots. Would rather one of these in the forwards but I don't see the player.

Neale - Flirted with ditching him but didn't really get me anywhere to be honest as I just don't like the guys between Crouch and Petracca.
Steele - Just like him.
Petracca - Ditto.
Crouch - I think the best value, has sustained 120 type scoring for a half season twice now, just needs to be fit and focused, both have been problems.
Walsh - Aiming for a M8 out of him, ~110.
Cripps - See him as a M4+ type.

Will mix up the rucks when I see a reason, Preuss out in this side meant an extra mid premium, so was worth it.

Marshall - Have to go him for ruck cover in this team. Still don't love him as a starting pick outside of that really.
5 Rookies - Basically. Could manufacture for Impey here also but basically Daniher, Ziebell are only durability risks, they play if fit in good roles and are good value. Rookies just need 5, with Impey an option if hand is forced. Knowing my luck there will be 6 good back rookies and no forwards, forcing me to pick a whole heap of guys I really don't want (on a positive, would make a real interesting season with so much variability up forward).

This is definitely a structure that I like. There's always the option to ditch Gawn and push at least a couple of the back rookies up as well.

View attachment 26034

I don't mind this side, but to me, it's pretty risky. Just 1 premium def and fwd, plus 3 near premium defenders who could get there. Cripps is a reasonable fallen premium to pick and Walsh should step up, but there's some risk you will be losing a few points there too. I guess you know what you're doing more so than me based on your past results, and I nearly guarantee my starting side will be far riskier, so I'm not the best one to judge.

Roberton on the bench - didn't he retire? Guess it gives you a guaranteed donut, but do you need another one with Treacy? Possibly a few other rookies will need changing too, but plenty of time to sort that out - a few basement priced rookies and not much cash is something to keep an eye on though.

 

[Professor]

Been tinkering again, looking at possible role changes, Harmes will probably play mid/forward, injuries to Brown and Weeds guarantees switching between Trac and Harmes. Oleg recruited by GC to replace Hanley, hopefully gets to string a few games and will be given the opportunity as a rebounding defender. Brought in Higgins, replaces Ablett, will play a variety of positions, namely half forward, mid and wing. Has competition from Smith and Menegola. 53% have Rowell, let's see how good the kid is. Brought Marshall in as recommended and Cahill, does he play half back?

 

[wogitalia]

Really like it Wogi, couple of guys I am not sold on but certainly see the appeal - 1 fwd premium setup looks a winner lol.

Can you give us some insight on Campbell- that left foot is a real weapon! Read he was used in a quarterback role in the swans practice game which sounds very enticing.
How do you rate his prospects for this year?

Campbell I really like the look and sound of. Playing half back I think he'd be worth the premium, playing as a small forward I think it would only be JS that would be behind the pick, will struggle to generate a lot of cash.

Being an elite kick is always helpful though, if he settles to the speed then he instantly becomes a guy you give the ball to.

From what I know I'd say Billings is a pretty comparable player type, Rich would probably be the comparable role but he was considerably more physically developed but Swans style does suit the HBF. Reckon Billings probably presents a high end result if he played forward, which was ~60, think anything over 65 playing forward would be a pretty big success for him. Down back I think he could push that Heppell/Rich which was mid 80s but realistically I think 75, neither of them had Lloyd to contend with, if he gets kick ins that 85 becomes a far more achievable target.

Ultimately think his role will say a lot but expect him to play a fair bit of footy barring injury. Priced at 35 you'd ideally be hoping for a 75 range average/spike. I think off half back and with kick-ins that would be likely, without kick-ins I'd say 50/50 and up forward I'd say unlikely.

Basically I think he's a 65-80 type off HB and a 55-65 type up forward. Kind of rookie you take if there aren't 123k options

I don't mind this side, but to me, it's pretty risky. Just 1 premium def and fwd, plus 3 near premium defenders who could get there. Cripps is a reasonable fallen premium to pick and Walsh should step up, but there's some risk you will be losing a few points there too. I guess you know what you're doing more so than me based on your past results, and I nearly guarantee my starting side will be far riskier, so I'm not the best one to judge.

Roberton on the bench - didn't he retire? Guess it gives you a guaranteed donut, but do you need another one with Treacy? Possibly a few other rookies will need changing too, but plenty of time to sort that out - a few basement priced rookies and not much cash is something to keep an eye on though.

You can safely ignore the rookies! I just try and get an average in the 140k range for them so that I can afford the more expensive if I need them or they demand it and free up cash if the cheapies come along.

Everytime you target value there is risk The defenders are certainly a vulnerable area but I keep leaning towards the defenders with risk when I spend more also, Mills is the main one who I think can be 110+ in the mids but would actually expect more like 90 and potentially even less from if he plays HB again, I'd actually say he's a riskier pick than the 3 I have all things considered. Was different with Whitfield who for me was a safe 105 bet with 110+ potential. I like the rest of the backs but for the most part I like them to hold their starting points, which means I expect to pay the same or less for them later so if I can close the gap with 2/3 picks I should hopefully still make something on the other and I'm obviously playing for all 3!

It's funny but Crouch, Gawn, Neale and Marshall are the 4 picks who I feel the most risk picking in this side and yet I keep ending up with them in my team!

 

[wogitalia]

Been tinkering again, looking at possible role changes, Harmes will probably play mid/forward, injuries to Brown and Weeds guarantees switching between Trac and Harmes. Oleg recruited by GC to replace Hanley, hopefully gets to string a few games and will be given the opportunity as a rebounding defender. Brought in Higgins, replaces Ablett, will play a variety of positions, namely half forward, mid and wing. Has competition from Smith and Menegola. 53% have Rowell, let's see how good the kid is. Brought Marshall in as recommended and Cahill, does he play half back?

View attachment 26037

Really don't like Higgins. Durability is poor, scoring history has never been at a premium level even when the #1 midfielder and at 33 I just don't see what possible upside there is. Would be one of the most amazing 110+ seasons ever if he pulled it off.

Don't like Martin. Just don't like it. What are you hoping? Another who at 34 I'm just not buying an athleticism based ruck to bounce back and he's looking for 90+ to beat a rookie elsewhere.

If Markov was 50k cheaper, would love it. Dangerously no man's land at that price though. Do like him though.

I don't get the Hunter pick, absolute anomaly of a season last year that really stands out as a symptom of the shortened quarter adjustments to scoring, same player. Throw in Treloar chaos ball and I just don't see the positive in starting him, do you really think he can push towards 125, like is it on the cards? It should be at least highly possible at that starting price.

Saad similarly has an awful lot of risk for little reward. Best case just seems that he bumps a few points and you get a keeper for 12k less than Stewart, who has done it before. Worst case he regresses towards his mean which is low 80s and you're the only one riding him down.

Structurally I also really don't like the mids having 7 keepers already. Assuming Neale stays anywhere close to his starting point you have to get him and finish your mids. Leaving you with no room for Macrae, Bont, Petracca or any other breakout player that you've missed. Given that realistically M8 seems like a good outcome for Walsh and Rowell and an amazing outcome for Higgins as well as probably a strong outcome for Hunter given his total lack of scoring history, you're basically picking 4 M8s and cutting your team off at the knees.

Quite like a lot of the other picks but this team has a hell of a lot of high risk guys and I don't think very many of them offer high reward, there's a couple I'm not sure offer any reward!

 

[Professor]

Really don't like Higgins. Durability is poor, scoring history has never been at a premium level even when the #1 midfielder and at 33 I just don't see what possible upside there is. Would be one of the most amazing 110+ seasons ever if he pulled it off.

Don't like Martin. Just don't like it. What are you hoping? Another who at 34 I'm just not buying an athleticism based ruck to bounce back and he's looking for 90+ to beat a rookie elsewhere.

If Markov was 50k cheaper, would love it. Dangerously no man's land at that price though. Do like him though.

I don't get the Hunter pick, absolute anomaly of a season last year that really stands out as a symptom of the shortened quarter adjustments to scoring, same player. Throw in Treloar chaos ball and I just don't see the positive in starting him, do you really think he can push towards 125, like is it on the cards? It should be at least highly possible at that starting price.

Saad similarly has an awful lot of risk for little reward. Best case just seems that he bumps a few points and you get a keeper for 12k less than Stewart, who has done it before. Worst case he regresses towards his mean which is low 80s and you're the only one riding him down.

Structurally I also really don't like the mids having 7 keepers already. Assuming Neale stays anywhere close to his starting point you have to get him and finish your mids. Leaving you with no room for Macrae, Bont, Petracca or any other breakout player that you've missed. Given that realistically M8 seems like a good outcome for Walsh and Rowell and an amazing outcome for Higgins as well as probably a strong outcome for Hunter given his total lack of scoring history, you're basically picking 4 M8s and cutting your team off at the knees.

Quite like a lot of the other picks but this team has a hell of a lot of high risk guys and I don't think very many of them offer high reward, there's a couple I'm not sure offer any reward!

Thanks for the feedback, some food for thought.

 

[Manikato1]

One thing I have noticed about many teams being posted is the shortage of premo's in Rd 12 regarding the byes. Sometimes only 2 premo's not playing rd 12 and then 6 or even 7 not playing rd 13. If this was the case for your rookie set up as you get to the byes that is probably okay. A heap play rd 12 the trade then out to pick up some premo's for rd 13 but I would rather have a 5-5-5 spread if possible for premo's. So far the best I can work in my team is 3 premo's out for rd 12.

A 2-7-4 premo bye structure could limit your choices for pre bye upgrades as you would not want to add a Bris, Carl, Ess, Rich, WC or WB to the Rd 13 pain you already have.

 

[Under The Dome]

One thing I have noticed about many teams being posted is the shortage of premo's in Rd 12 regarding the byes. Sometimes only 2 premo's not playing rd 12 and then 6 or even 7 not playing rd 13. If this was the case for your rookie set up as you get to the byes that is probably okay. A heap play rd 12 the trade then out to pick up some premo's for rd 13 but I would rather have a 5-5-5 spread if possible for premo's. So far the best I can work in my team is 3 premo's out for rd 12.

A 2-7-4 premo bye structure could limit your choices for pre bye upgrades as you would not want to add a Bris, Carl, Ess, Rich, WC or WB to the Rd 13 pain you already have.

Only liking 4 potentially from the first team byes in my final side. Mitchell,Danger,Stewart and Whitfield with three of them already suffering in preseason.