Opinion SC 2021: Rate My Team

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ok 1st attempt at a team after autofill. I'm going without Gawn, Grundy and Neale. I don't usually pick too many Carlton players, but think, this is the year to do it. Stef Martin in the ruck or forward will get some nice ball coming his way, unless Treloar is kicking it. Still not familiar with the rookies, so don't take too much notice.

View attachment 26004
It’s different lol

Stef Martin - I don’t see how he is relevant, wouldn’t surprise me if Bevo just goes with English only & used Bruce as the backup.
 

Bomber18

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Have said it elsewhere but essentially:

Every pick is either a cash cow or a keeper, anyone in between those two things is a bad pick.

When assessing a midpricer I do, keeping it short, essentially 3 things.

1. Can they be a keeper? A yes here puts them in play no matter what. If I think they're likely to be a keeper then they're hard to go past.

2. Can they average +40 on their starting price and match a mediocre rookie? A yes above and a yes here puts them in the "why not pick them?" category. A yes only here has the question of can I get the same from a rookie? Is their JS/role that much better.

3. Can they put up massive scores that spike their price? Ben Brown was a great example of this. I don't think he's a yes on either of the above, not a firm one at least, but I do think he can score a couple of 130 type scores in a month, which has the effect of averaging significantly more. Basically it's the other way to be an effective cash cow.


Assessing on these criteria...

Ziebell - Yes, can be a keeper, ~95 average twice before in his career and if he has the role change I really like it for him. I don't think it's likely. Yes I think he can average 40+, he's priced at 48, has averaged 88+ 4 times and 84+ 3 times in the 7 seasons prior to LY, I think it's likely. I also think he's capable of big scores, especially if playing as a rebounding defender, this is also likely. So while I'd be picking him expecting a rookie, there is a glimmer at least.

Milera - Yes can be a keeper but I think it's quite unlikely. Priced at 58 I think he can do 40+ but I think it's quite unlikely. He can put up decent scores but I'm not sold on big scores. You'll notice here that 1 and 2 overlap, if he makes 40+ he'd be a keeper. Given I think it's far less likely than likely, he hasn't sniffed my teams but his position at least makes him a chance.

FWIW, Preuss I think is a solid 1. No 2. Yes 3. Yes which makes him a perfectly reasonable pick and I'm genuinely considering him at R3 at this point in time because I think he can make 200k (I like Gawn and Grundy as starting picks so it's R3, if something changes there, R2 comes into play). I don't like having a dead bench spot, you're handcuffing your cash generation, so he's in play, question is can I use that 200k elsewhere for genuine gains?

Heppell I think is a 1. Yes but very unlikely. 2 Yes 3. Yes. Again making him a reasonable pick. At his position though I think there will be enough 125k options with similar prospects that at this point he's unlikely to be in my team.

Then you have guys like Taranto who'd be a 1. Yes but unlikely, 2. No, 3. Yes but very hard to trade if he does. That puts him in play but makes him risky given I don't think I have the discipline to trade him if 3 happens before it has run out. Most of his price group fit that.

Rozee is a Y, N, Y guy as well but I'm not particularly sold on him still. Jeremy Cameron in the same boat. They're probably in the same place as Taranto, I'm not terribly convinced on the first Y and I'm not sure I have the discipline to move them if 3 happens because god I'd hate to move them and it turns out the first Y was correct!

Then of course there are guys like Franklin who is obviously a Y, Y, Y guy and yet I haven't thought about picking him to this point. That said, if he was there for round one you have to think about it.

This year I think the midprice crop is actually very thin, Preuss if he was a R/F would be a lock for me, alas, he's not. I just struggle to see many that are well balanced keeper chances that can not get there and still succeed because the vast majority are in the 75+ pricing range where it's keeper or bust and the odds of hitting in that group are just not very good. Last year on the flipside was a great year with a lot of decent options. Perhaps the preseason games will change this. Someone like Toby Greene playing midfield for example would shoot to my first picked forward.
Really like your style of thinking! Very interesting approach!

Completely agree with your approach of being very clear about the purpose of a pick i.e. are they a cash cow or a potential keeper.

The yes but unlikely to be a keeper bucket is an interesting one you have put forward. The quasi keeper types can help early on but can hurt you late. Although, I have still done pretty well with these quasi keeper types as long as they end up playing 22 games (ie in 2019, I believe I held Brouch and BSmith all year and they were still good picks for me playing all 22 games despite averaging just under a desirable average).

One thing to note on the Milera and Taranto types are that they are still young so would not have hit their established scoring pattern as yet. So they almost become “breakout” selection type picks rather than true “fallen premiums”.
 
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ok 1st attempt at a team after autofill. I'm going without Gawn, Grundy and Neale. I don't usually pick too many Carlton players, but think, this is the year to do it. Stef Martin in the ruck or forward will get some nice ball coming his way, unless Treloar is kicking it. Still not familiar with the rookies, so don't take too much notice.

View attachment 26004
I'm not a fan of the Martin pick but if you're going Martin and Preuss I think you just have to take Marshall in the FWDs for cover, at best Martin seems to be the 2nd ruck, at worst he's the reserves ruck and you've got nothing behind it.


Really like your style of thinking! Very interesting approach!

Completely agree with your approach of being very clear about the purpose of a pick i.e. are they a cash cow or a potential keeper.

The yes but unlikely to be a keeper bucket is an interesting one you have put forward. The quasi keeper types can help early on but can hurt you late. Although, I have still done pretty well with these quasi keeper types as long as they end up playing 22 games (ie in 2019, I believe I held Brouch and BSmith all year and they were still good picks for me playing all 22 games despite averaging just under a desirable average).

One thing to note on the Milera and Taranto types are that they are still young so would not have hit their established scoring pattern as yet. So they almost become “breakout” selection type picks rather than true “fallen premiums”.
The best pick remains the potential keeper who is also a cash cow but there is generally a pretty bad reason for why they'd be that cheap. The spike scoring is the saving grace for some, a month at 110 isn't that far off a season in what it does to the price.

Also agree totally the young guys always have a chance. I don't like this midprice group (really liked last years in comparison) but there will be a couple of guys who break out for sure, just the nature of the beast. While last year it was pretty easy to name Ridley, Simpkin, Smith, Brayshaw and Petracca before round 1 and only slightly more difficult to pick a bunch of them, I find it a lot harder this year. The names that stand out to me all have pretty terrible durability records, major injuries, role changes or all of the above even. Caldwell and Blakey probably the two who most stand out other than Milera and I can't say I love either of those picks, Caldwell actually arrives at a pretty strong midfield, especially in his area, and Blakey has basically had one game where he looked great, a couple more where he was ok and a lot of nothingness. It's a role I think suits him but I have nothing concrete to back it up. There's a few other shots as you move up the prices but even the Rozee or Cameron types are speculative.

Of course we get one random preseason game for each team to create some adventure :)
 
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Like it overall mate but I just can’t have a 300K player on the bench despite your justification tbh.

Hogan ... wow, gutsy play - much risk attached.

Going to sound boring but how about Impey at 212K playing as a rebounding half back instead, Tracey at R3 for the capt loophole & link to Marshall, upgrade Hollands to Heppell which would make your side look more solid overall I believe.
Haha, the Hogan pick sure is risky! Hadn't seen him mentioned at all though so figured why not bring him up. Not sure any of the bailouts are any better either!

Ultimately rookies decide those, if the forward rookies are strong I think I'm happy with Ziebell at F1 to be honest this year. I just much prefer the premiums at all other lines for my starting cash and I think that's actually my preferred structure right now.

Preuss is more an experiment, I honestly didn't feel like the 200k actually did an awful lot, a few safer picks essentially but I do think that Preuss can post a 140 type score and back it up with a couple of 110s to make close to 250k, which would make him an excellent rookie choice. The 200k is useful for sure but I reckon the 250k could be even more useful if he can pull it off. In a lot of ways that 200k actually has diminishing value returns, I end up upgrading a Walsh, who is 10 points of value, imo, to an Oliver type who is full priced.

Not a huge fan of Impey, if there aren't other rookies I'd take him, don't get me wrong, but really needs to average 80 or spike it (not something he's shown a strong tendency for) to make the 200k mark, just not sold he out performs cheaper options. That said, JS can be worth paying for sometimes, cant make any cash if they're not playing right?
 
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My latest thoughts:

Laird Stewart Doch Zwill DGB Gould (Wehr Highmore)
Neale Oliver McCluggage Cripps Walsh Heppell Phillips Powell (Facrae Valente Downie)
Grundy Pruess (Cyclone)
Marshall Heeney JCameron Ziebell Daniher Cockatoo (Rowe Durdin)

$67k remaining.

I know Cameron has a hamstring issue - will see how it goes as more match practise reports come out. Can go to Rozee or Butters if needed.
 
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Still sitting on my Top 16/Treacy rookie side :-

D: Lloyd , Laird , Stewart
M: Neale , Oliver , Cripps , Rowell , Taranto
R: Gawn , Grundy
F: Marshall , Ziebell , Daniher

If too many forward rookies present will swap Grundy with Marshall and start Ziebell at F1 😀
 
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This is my current line-up, feel as if I'm overspending on premiums here and will need to cut some costs once rookies picture becomes more clear.

Defenders - Think Laird and Stewart are locked into my line-up barring any mishaps between now and round 1. Mills is a wait and see dependent on role and same with Williams. Lloyd, Ryan and Daniel have all piqued my interest at some stage so will be interesting to see how this falls.

Midfielders - Oliver and Crouch have been the mainstays in my midfield thus far. Neale and Cripps speak for themselves but could easily find myself dumping either before round 1. Kelly is the interesting one, durability always scares me but haven't heard anything regarding his pre-season so thinking that no news is good news. Macrae, Bont, Titch, Fyfe, Walsh and Rowell all on the radar.

Rucks - Set and forget

Forwards - Both Marshall and Dunks have not left my side since day one. I can only see upside in both of them and think they both have high floors. Haven't been tempted by any of the mid-price options here but think the main changes that could happen here is downgrading premiums in other lines to try and fit in a Ziebell or Daniher or Impey.

Feedback appreciated.

1612919860348.png
 
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This is my current line-up, feel as if I'm overspending on premiums here and will need to cut some costs once rookies picture becomes more clear.

Defenders - Think Laird and Stewart are locked into my line-up barring any mishaps between now and round 1. Mills is a wait and see dependent on role and same with Williams. Lloyd, Ryan and Daniel have all piqued my interest at some stage so will be interesting to see how this falls.

Midfielders - Oliver and Crouch have been the mainstays in my midfield thus far. Neale and Cripps speak for themselves but could easily find myself dumping either before round 1. Kelly is the interesting one, durability always scares me but haven't heard anything regarding his pre-season so thinking that no news is good news. Macrae, Bont, Titch, Fyfe, Walsh and Rowell all on the radar.

Rucks - Set and forget

Forwards - Both Marshall and Dunks have not left my side since day one. I can only see upside in both of them and think they both have high floors. Haven't been tempted by any of the mid-price options here but think the main changes that could happen here is downgrading premiums in other lines to try and fit in a Ziebell or Daniher or Impey.

Feedback appreciated.

View attachment 26009
I have struggled to go as deep as you in the mids as I simply cannot see us getting many/any good fwd rookies.
 
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I have struggled to go as deep as you in the mids as I simply cannot see us getting many/any good fwd rookies.
All names at the moment but based here and on other sites RMT

Cahill , Ford , Kelly , Jones , Rowe
Fullarton
Cockatoo , Durdin , Macrae , E Smith
Chugg , Laurie

etc etc

all seem popular selections , whether that translates into Round 1 selection , JS and points is all speculation at the moment

without taking into account the high end picks from the Draft

Marshall , Ziebell , Daniher , Impey could take up 50% of available spots , so theoretically we might only need 4 to be selected
 
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I have struggled to go as deep as you in the mids as I simply cannot see us getting many/any good fwd rookies.
The fwd rookies from what I can tell that are the most likely to play are :-
Rowe
Cockatoo
F Macrae (fwd/mid)
Laurie (fwd/def)
Campbell (mid/fwd) - 189K though. Just read that in that swans intraclub game he was used in a quarterback role, swans players getting the ball to him whenever possible as his left foot kick is an absolute weapon (60 metre kicks with great accuracy) so he is someone to consider for sure.

Then you have the 200K to 260K types like Ziebell/Daniher/Impey/ who would have good job security - personally I am taking all 3 of them at this stage & Marshall.

Another option is Cahill at 170K with a role change, playing half back now.

Just weighing up myself if I take Dunkley/Martin as my 2nd fwd premium or back in the potential fwd rookies.
 
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The fwd rookies from what I can tell that are the most likely to play are :-
Rowe
Cockatoo
F Macrae (fwd/mid)
Laurie (fwd/def)
Campbell (mid/fwd) - 189K though. Just read that in that swans intraclub game he was used in a quarterback role, swans players getting the ball to him whenever possible as his left foot kick is an absolute weapon (60 metre kicks with great accuracy) so he is someone to consider for sure.

Then you have the 200K to 260K types like Ziebell/Daniher/Impey/ who would have good job security - personally I am taking all 3 of them at this stage & Marshall.

Another option is Cahill at 170K with a role change, playing half back now.

Just weighing up myself if I take Dunkley/Martin as my 2nd fwd premium or back in the potential fwd rookies.
I would add Logan McDonald as a chance of playing if the Swans remain Buddy-less.
 
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Just to see how it looks, I have made a team with just Marshall as the only fwd premium which allows a stacked midfield - Taranto at M7 :eek::LOL: :-

View attachment 26014

It would be certainly fairly unique - doubt I would have the guts to go this way though.
Seen it already quite a few times , even with Ziebell at F1 , so certainly could be popular.

Just need to follow the rookies.
 
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Just to see how it looks, I have made a team with just Marshall as the only fwd premium which allows a stacked midfield - Taranto at M7 :eek::LOL: :-

View attachment 26014

It would be certainly fairly unique - doubt I would have the guts to go this way though.
Too many M8-20 types. Would probably be 9 safe to say premos. Will be interesting to see if people do lean this way going into rd1.
 
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Just to see how it looks, I have made a team with just Marshall as the only fwd premium which allows a stacked midfield - Taranto at M7 :eek::LOL: :-
It would be certainly fairly unique - doubt I would have the guts to go this way though.
Was the projected score something ridiculous?
 
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Too many M8-20 types. Would probably be 9 safe to say premos. Will be interesting to see if people do lean this way going into rd1.
Agree - was just seeing how premiums mids I could squeeze in - far more likely to drop Taranto/ have 6 mids.

Something like this :- Screen Shot 2021-02-10 at 1.25.12 pm.png


Would love to hear more reports on how Caldwell is going - practice games are coming up in 2 weeks time so we will get a better idea of how guys like Caldwell are looking.
 
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