Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion

[GrainFedBeef]

That's nothing compared to some of the posts I have read from Wogi over the years regarding Horse.

For what it is worth, I believe he is bang on - you don't realise the ineptitude of Horse's coaching until you start watching the swans play more closely. He literally is a hinderance in the way he wants them to play, taking away the natural talents/abilities of his best players - not utilising their skills at all. Mills is a classic example, this kid has the tools to be an absolute star if Horse could release the shackles/ play him in the middle & let him become an offensive weapon.

you don't buy the three injuries they had in the back line when they were last going to push Mills to the forward line.

I see JPK form time to time, as positive as I can be about the kids coming through, could see in his eyes they are in a rebuild phase. Sydney is not about winning, Sydney market just don't want to see them get thrashed. Horse coaching to his support base and being commercial.

 

[wogitalia]

@wogitalia , What's your thoughts on John Longmire as a coach?

Big fan, why do you ask

That's nothing compared to some of the posts I have read from Wogi over the years regarding Horse.

For what it is worth, I believe he is bang on - you don't realise the ineptitude of Horse's coaching until you start watching the swans play more closely. He literally is a hinderance in the way he wants them to play, taking away the natural talents/abilities of his best players - not utilising their skills at all. Mills is a classic example, this kid has the tools to be an absolute star if Horse could release the shackles/ play him in the middle & let him become an offensive weapon.

This! The logic on keeping Mills in the defense despite being ready to play midfield a couple of years ago pretty much sums him up. Instead of putting a priority on winning the ball and moving it into the attacking half his priority is on having defensive structures in place and setting up from defense. Just watch how the Swans set up to lose stoppages, genuinely is designed to force the ball into the parts of the defense we've set up an outnumber at (which the way he floods is 3/4 of the backline). The result is that we lose more often than we win (we've been in the top half of the league in clearances once since 2013) and when we do win we get super low quality clearances that lead to nothing.

What he did to Buddy is even more unfathomable to me. What's Buddy's one standout weakness... pack marking. So Horse designed a structure where Buddy lives in a 3 on 1 situation with the main kick type being long on his head. Reckon that beating he took is a huge reason for his body falling to pieces the last couple of years as well.

He actually had a brilliant first couple of years, the slingshot was genuinely a revolutionary coaching adjustment that he deserves a lot of credit for but it was mostly solved from that point on and he just hasn't adapted, if anything he's doubled down on the win the ball in defense and stripped away all the actual attacking elements that were involved.

 

[wogitalia]

you don't buy the three injuries they had in the back line when they were last going to push Mills to the forward line.

I see JPK form time to time, as positive as I can be about the kids coming through, could see in his eyes they are in a rebuild phase. Sydney is not about winning, Sydney market just don't want to see them get thrashed. Horse coaching to his support base and being commercial.

Three injuries in the backline means you call up 3 guys to play there. You don't take the guy who has your most special skillset as a midfielder and use him to plug up the backline. Reminds me of that incredible failure when Pendles played in defense for the Pies, that one lasted for a month, not 3 years!

Turns out Harry Cunningham was actually alright in defense last year, that's a guy who played midfield for 3 years so Mills could play in defense. Throw in Hewett, Taylor, Clark, Gray, Florent, Rowbottom and a whole bunch of guys who are solid, you just don't prioritise any of those guys over a Mills.

Mills is a very good defender but he's not on another planet to say Dawson in the same role. As a midfielder he's shown he could easily be our best, which given Parker is a pretty damn good player is saying something.

 

[Broar]

The horse hate is a bit much, he's won a flag and taken them to two other grandfinals, they've been rebuilding the last couple of years and haven't hit the lows that most other clubs do (Plus they've had a shocking injury run as well).

It's not his job to make us supercoach players happy. Yes Heeney and Mills probably are capable of playing in the midfield fulltime and maybe that will be their future but at this stage there is no rush, why anyone would want to run these players into the ground like Carlton did with Cripps I'll never know.

I wouldn't back many other coaches going round at the moment over Horse and the success he's had. Further judgements should be made in five years time to see where their rebuild has ended up.

 

[wogitalia]

The horse hate is a bit much, he's won a flag and taken them to two other grandfinals, they've been rebuilding the last couple of years and haven't hit the lows that most other clubs do (Plus they've had a shocking injury run as well).

It's not his job to make us supercoach players happy. Yes Heeney and Mills probably are capable of playing in the midfield fulltime and maybe that will be their future but at this stage there is no rush, why anyone would want to run these players into the ground like Carlton did with Cripps I'll never know.

I wouldn't back many other coaches going round at the moment over Horse and the success he's had. Further judgements should be made in five years time to see where their rebuild has ended up.

He deserves credit for the flag and I gave it to him but the Swans had the best list and consistently fell short to Hawthorn because Horse got outcoached when it mattered over a 4 year period. 2 GF losses where you had the better side, by a considerable amount in the 2nd one, is ultimately on the coach. A large reason for that rebuild is because the two most talented midfielders in the team haven't played midfield over the last couple of years and the guy who should have been the fourth best was forced out of the side because Horse kept playing him in a forward pocket, his mismanagement of Buddy, Tippett and Hanners leading to injuries (among others) is also a big issue.

Now it's not entirely his fault but he certainly has responsibility on Nank, Mitchell and Newman who were all given away for cents on the dollar, all after being played completely out of position by Horse (or not at all). He's pushed out the two best rucks we've had in Mumford and Nank.

The salary cap issues aren't on him and the trade ban is a bit much to blame on him entirely but he hasn't helped and definitely didn't put up any public front that he wasn't meekly accepting of it all.

Tactically he has also been very ordinary since the flag, no adaption, no innovation. Pure reliance on having the best team in the league and setting up to not lose and hoping that ultimately the talent wins an arm wrestle in the last.

 

[Herbie66]

Looks like at this stage THERE is a common 10-12 forward rookies.

Add Marshall , Ziebell , Daniher & Impey not a lot of room left.

 

[Harmonic Nine]

Marshall finishes top 6 for me, but I reckon I could get him cheaper whilst Ryder stays in the team.

Running Gawndy, I can’t field a team without the treacy/Marshall combo. A 1-2 week injury with no backup is a nightmare. Plus, the fact that there are a few question marks on other fwd premiums I’ll probably just take him.

Would be a big call to leave him out. I saw someone flirt with the idea of Preuss at R3 which could be an alternative idea to the Gawndy without Marshall.

I know this crosses over to the ruck conversation but I’m mainly referencing Marshall as a forward.

 

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359625561425891330

 

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359626690679369728

 

[Vicwood]

you don't buy the three injuries they had in the back line when they were last going to push Mills to the forward line.

I see JPK form time to time, as positive as I can be about the kids coming through, could see in his eyes they are in a rebuild phase. Sydney is not about winning, Sydney market just don't want to see them get thrashed. Horse coaching to his support base and being commercial.

That's what I see when I watch the Swans Play.

 

[froffershanners]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359626690679369728

Another interesting option around that $350k mark along with Caldwell.

Both getting to new clubs with new roles.

Stephenson averaged 80 in his second season playing predominantly forward.

Can a move to the midfield allow for a return to that scoring plus 15-20% more?

 

[manyproblems]

Looks like at this stage THERE is a common 10-12 forward rookies.

Add Marshall , Ziebell , Daniher & Impey not a lot of room left.

This could be the greatest thing for SC if we get these fwd rookies. We can chuck the mid/fwds in the midfield, and then run 4-5 fwd rookies + 1-2 of the 200k guys. Dont need to take a risk on a breakout fwd, let it figure itself out.

Up forward we may get Dev, Cahil, E.Smith, Cockatoo, Rowe, Macrae, Jones, Brockman,. Chugg, Durdin, Jeka, Laurie, Worrell. The latter on this list are more off chances. Maybe some others pop up, but if we get half of these guys I'd be very pleased.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

This good be the greatest thing for SC if we get these fwd rookies. We can chuck the mid/fwds in the midfield, and then run 4-5 fwd rookies + 1-2 of the 200k guys. Dont need to take a risk on a breakout fwd, let it figure itself out.

Up forward we may get Dev, Cahil, E.Smith, Cockatoo, Rowe, Macrae, Jones, Brockman,. Chugg, Durdin, Jeka, Laurie, Worrell. The latter on this list are more off chances. Maybe some others pop up, but if we get half of these guys I'd be very pleased.

I reckon we are extremely lucky if we can nab five of them, the next issue though is what sort of scoring they produce. From your list I think Cahill, Cockatoo, Rowe and Macrae are maybe slightly better than 50-50’s to play round one. With Laurie and Jones the next two most likely.

We still have a while until the AAMI series and round one, we just have to hope a few of these guys put in good match sim, intra club, and practice match performances over the next couple of weeks to get themselves in the frame for the AAMI series match.

 

[Herbie66]

This good be the greatest thing for SC if we get these fwd rookies. We can chuck the mid/fwds in the midfield, and then run 4-5 fwd rookies + 1-2 of the 200k guys. Dont need to take a risk on a breakout fwd, let it figure itself out.

Up forward we may get Dev, Cahil, E.Smith, Cockatoo, Rowe, Macrae, Jones, Brockman,. Chugg, Durdin, Jeka, Laurie, Worrell. The latter on this list are more off chances. Maybe some others pop up, but if we get half of these guys I'd be very pleased.

Certainly plenty of names at this stage so hopefully plenty of options to choose from.

Suspect the Ziebell at F1 will become even more popular starting structure.

Like you said then just wait for the premium forwards to drop in value then pounce.

Danger , Dunkley , Dusty , Heeney , Marshall , Sidey , Son Son , Zorko I suspect will still feature prominently by season's end.

Load up the rookies forward & back , could easily go 6 premiums mids to start + Gawn & Grundy.

 

[PC]

Certainly plenty of names at this stage so hopefully plenty of options to choose from.

Suspect the Ziebell at F1 will become even more popular starting structure.

Like you said then just wait for the premium forwards to drop in value then pounce.

Danger , Dunkley , Dusty , Heeney , Marshall , Sidey , Son Son , Zorko I suspect will still feature prominently by season's end.

Load up the rookies forward & back , could easily go 6 premiums mids to start + Gawn & Grundy.

Who are the 6 prem mids to start is the challenge Herbie.

 

[Herbie66]

Who are the 6 prem mids to start is the challenge Herbie.

I am sure @wogitalia will advise us all 😀

Bazlenka , BBQ , Bont , Dunkley , Hunter , Libba , Macrae would be the easiest 7 and might stop 1,000,000 posts about Mr Magnets 😀

Neale , Oliver , Cripps seem the 3 obvious ones to me.

Fyfe & Jelly normally break.

Titch with concerns.

Who backs up/can equal last season's output (even if they were over scored) is the million dollar question.

Rowell , Taranto , Cunnington , LDU etc price types seemed frowned upon.

Maybe a "escape" option is to start Dusty & Laird as mids then move them around at upgrade time (seems to be a heap of cheap F/M that could play Round 1 to swing Dusty around each round)

 

[Backbone]

Who are the 6 prem mids to start is the challenge Herbie.

If I was picking 6 that I think would score the most points in 2021
it would be Neale Macrae Oliver petracca titch and Bont
feel very strongly those 6 are the safest and will be top 8 mids over the season

other like Fyfe and jelly may average more but won’t play every game where as those other ones will.

Of course you can’t start all 6 of them which is the issue and where the dpp laird/Dusty types help as well as the value in guys like Cripps/walsh/Rowell/telly who all present decent starting prices come into play

 

[Seymour Skinner]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359625561425891330

I just don't see how a HBFer role for a bloke with a career kicking efficiency of 57.5% is going to work out.

 

[Shannon]

I just don't see how a HBFer role for a bloke with a career kicking efficiency of 57.5% is going to work out.

Same was said when Bevo moved Matthew Boyd to half back, most were very skeptical (myself included). However he went from a kicking efficiency of in the 60s to almost 80% after being moved :-

From defence Matthew Boyd is still averaging 28 touches a game - not quite the 33 of his midfield pomp, but still a mighty number. His disposal efficiency is touching 80 per cent, a big jump from the 60s of his All-Australian years. The relative time and space of the two positions renders this a logical improvement; he smiles at the "if I only knew then what I know now" nature of his new role.
"Maybe I should have been a backman earlier, and understood that when you do turn the ball over in the midfield the backs get hurt. I probably didn't have that appreciation early in my career. It might have helped."

 

[Herbie66]

Who are the 6 prem mids to start is the challenge Herbie.

If I go 6 mids it would be Neale , Oliver , Laird * , Martin * , Cripps , Rowell (could be right , could be wrong)

Ideally I am trying to get a 11-4-7 starting lineup , with the rookie lineup being 2-3-0-2 (contradictory to above) which then living in my dream world would be 7 downgrades for 7 upgrades (never works like that).

My 4 midpricers I like (at this stage) are JZ , Joey , Harmes & Milera.

Heeney & Zac Attack I count as fallen premiums.

Rowell is just Wowell and I don't think should be compared to anyone past or previous.

I am finding the ruck discussion this season especially fascinating , seems people who are going Preuss then must have Marshall automatically as cover. Why ?

Preuss & Martin , Preuss & Hickey are both cheaper alternatives than Marshall & Treacy.

Maybe Fullarton is named Round 1.

Suspect the WB got Martin for a reason and to "free up" English from the ruck contests , I really hope Bevo plays him as a extra mid/winger Richo style. (but that's me thinking about how the actual game should be played)

I guess though our starting structures are determined by how and where the rookies are named Round 1 (theoretically the more we start , the more hope we should have in picking the higher averaging ones) , so maybe we do get 6-8 defender & forward rookies , all conjecture and speculation at this stage.