Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion

[Herbie66]

Crazy stat of the day - Jack Darling finished 10th in overall points last season for current forwards at 17/80.9. Papley 11th at 17/79.8.

And Wingard is/was 8th on aggregate 😀

 

[wogitalia]

The problem I see is that I recall his best scoring years were playing mainly as a defender.

In the past couple of years he has had injury problems and aside from the occasional spike game his scoring as a FWD has been terrible

Had one really good year as a forward also but that was as the 2nd forward, has struggled mightily as the first forward. In a weird way the injuries that give him opportunity are also the reason why I'm not considering him.

 

[Bontempele]

"Josh Dunkley looks set to continue playing as a forward who pinch-hits in the midfield after Adam Treloar’s arrival. He’s averaged 95 over the past two years when playing forward, which would be a disappointing return given he’s priced at 104."

"There is, however, a small chance he’s the value pick of the bunch if he returns to the midfield, where he averaged 128 in the last 16 games of 2020."

Terrible take.

Why is that?!

 

[Dimmawit]

Doesn't look like a guy who is touch and go for round 1 does he?

Strange article from the AFL website less than a fortnight ago suggesting he was in doubt for the season opener.

Back in the frame for my starting team.

What do you see him averaging. When he makes it into my team I always think Taranto will average more over the year, has the better role and in a better side.

You can take both but I don't have a lot of room for x2 450k guys. It relies on a rookie shuffle but I can't justify Heeney over TT

 

[Ben's Beasts]

What do you see him averaging. When he makes it into my team I always think Taranto will average more over the year, has the better role and in a better side.

You can take both but I don't have a lot of room for x2 450k guys. It relies on a rookie shuffle but I can't justify Heeney over TT

95-100 for Heeney I reckon and he’s priced at 85.

It’s so hard to get a reading on Taranto. Certainly think he’ll average more than last season but can see him going anywhere between 90-110.

I think that Heeney is a much better bet at being a top 12 forward than Taranto being a top 16 mid.

Both have been in and out of my team.

 

[Dimmawit]

In furious agreement BUT

If Heeney goes 100 and plays 22 games, he in the AA just about. Some injury concern
If TT plays 22 games as a mid and GWS aren't bottom four, surely he goes 95+ min. Played games last year full PS

The second option just seems so much more likely to me but Heeney has way more love as a value pick it seems

 

[Ben's Beasts]

In furious agreement BUT

If Heeney goes 100 and plays 22 games, he in the AA just about. Some injury concern
If TT plays 22 games as a mid and GWS aren't bottom four, surely he goes 95+ min. Played games last year full PS

The second option just seems so much more likely to me but Heeney has way more love as a value pick it seems

Yeah, I think it comes down to what is acceptable as an average on their respective lines.

Let’s just say a 95 average for Heeney and a 100 average for Taranto. Even though Heeney averages 5 points less, he’s perfectly fine with that average as a forward while Taranto’s 100 average isn’t acceptable as a mid.

I guess it’s all about what we predict them to average though and it’s really guesswork at this stage.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

95-100 for Heeney I reckon and he’s priced at 85.

It’s so hard to get a reading on Taranto. Certainly think he’ll average more than last season but can see him going anywhere between 90-110.

I think that Heeney is a much better bet at being a top 12 forward than Taranto being a top 16 mid.

Both have been in and out of my team.

In furious agreement BUT

If Heeney goes 100 and plays 22 games, he in the AA just about. Some injury concern
If TT plays 22 games as a mid and GWS aren't bottom four, surely he goes 95+ min. Played games last year full PS

The second option just seems so much more likely to me but Heeney has way more love as a value pick it seems

Priced at 82.5 and has a history of 94-97 over 4 years. Will cost $454k and if he goes at his average he will cost around $500k by mid year without a spike score. I avoided him last year due to volatility in his scoring being a forward. Swans look to be a weaker side and he achieved 97 when Buddy was copping 1-2 defenders. 4 out of 6 scores were poor last year, 86 or below.

Absolutely gun player who is forced to play forwards due to the lack of attack options for the Swans. No different to Mills previously in the back line, difference is they have recruited more for the back line and any half forward like Blakely is getting trialled in the midfield.

Needs to be a rotating mid to get interested for me.

 

[Dimmawit]

Yeah, I think it comes down to what is acceptable as an average on their respective lines.

Let’s just say a 95 average for Heeney and a 100 average for Taranto. Even though Heeney averages 5 points less, he’s perfectly fine with that average as a forward while Taranto’s 100 average isn’t acceptable as a mid.

I guess it’s all about what we predict them to average though and it’s really guesswork at this stage.

True true, can't argue with the logic. FWIW if I started TT I'd be doing it with the plan he becomes a fallen pick from Neale/Oliver/Macrae/Steele well before the bye.

Also I reckon Heeney is pushing to be a top 6 fwd.

Sidey, Dunkley, Martin, Zorko, Danger, Marshall all ahead of him simply due to role and teams they play in ***subject to fitness.

But don't get me wrong the difference is Heeney starts at 450k unlike that mob

 

[Vicwood]

I just don't see how a HBFer role for a bloke with a career kicking efficiency of 57.5% is going to work out.

sounds odd to me, just cannot see Zieball in that roll off half back, and now talk of stevo with mid time.?? What's going on at North.

 

[Eagling]

What do you see him averaging. When he makes it into my team I always think Taranto will average more over the year, has the better role and in a better side.

You can take both but I don't have a lot of room for x2 450k guys. It relies on a rookie shuffle but I can't justify Heeney over TT

You can easily justify Heeney over TT.

If Heeney averages 90-95 which is in his wheelhouse, he could easily be a good F6.

If Taranto averages 100-105 he's a compromised M8.

 

[Dimmawit]

You can easily justify Heeney over TT.

If Heeney averages 90-95 which is in his wheelhouse, he could easily be a good F6.

If Taranto averages 100-105 he's a compromised M8.

Not arguing that point don't get me wrong but I think TT is a stepping stone for me

 

[wogitalia]

In furious agreement BUT

If Heeney goes 100 and plays 22 games, he in the AA just about. Some injury concern
If TT plays 22 games as a mid and GWS aren't bottom four, surely he goes 95+ min. Played games last year full PS

The second option just seems so much more likely to me but Heeney has way more love as a value pick it seems

Positional value is the big difference. Taranto is value but will cost trades barring a big jump from his previous best. Heeney just needs to match his 4 season average and the premiums turn out like most expect (dropping a bit) and he's a discounted premium. Taranto offers very little value if he can't give 110 a real good crack.

The other concern is Taranto played 11 games last year and just wasn't very good and with a lot of other midfielders and his lack of damage with the ball it makes sense to prioritise them over him if you're the Giants. Kelly, Hopper and Coniglio are the first group. Green should be leading the second group. De Boer tagging is effectively a full time midfielder. Throw in Whitfield and Perryman on the outside and most of the prime spots are eaten up. Taranto also the best other than Coniglio in that group of playing a more peripheral forward role. Also have Greene, who is probably their best midfielder and Ward floating around that could get in the way.

Heeney has been a 95 guy in the role he'll most likely play and given how poor that role is there is only upside on role changes, if he goes back he's proven he's better, if he goes midfield he's proven he's considerably better. Durability is really the big question on him.

Taranto absolutely could be an amazing pick, if he gets back the glory role and learns to do damage and not rely so heavily on cheap fluff stats like he did in 2019 resulting in a ratio fix he could easily push past 110 but I think there's enough doubts about all of that being possible and/or happening to make him a very hard starting pick given that's what has to happen for him to make any sense as a pick.

Heeney needs to average what he did last year, with an injury impacted game in there and he's probably going to do the job. Taranto needs to be better than he's ever been.

sounds odd to me, just cannot see Zieball in that roll off half back, and now talk of stevo with mid time.?? What's going on at North.

Stevo in the midfield makes a lot of sense, total lack of development at the Pies (which is probably at least partly on him) but with his speed he should be in more damaging spots and I'd have thought long term you'd be wanting him to target a Dangerfield type role.

Ziebell I think a lot of people are both underrating and forgetting how good a mark he is and over focusing on a contested midfielder having a low DE% that isn't actually low compared to his peers in that kind of role anyway. His kicking is mechanically fine, he'll have a ton more time to execute and he should be very good in the air.

I actually think the HB role suits him to a tee. Always been a player who needs to have his run checked or he marks the ball. Kangas really lack that player and I'd think he's a very strong intercept mark player and we all know how golden those are in SC. He's bigger than Sicily who has starred in that role for comparison.

 

[Juzzo]

Ziebell height very deceiving:
Ziebell: 188cm (I would've guessed around 180cm)
Sicily: 186cm

Interesting.

 

[wogitalia]

Ziebell height very deceiving:
Ziebell: 188cm (I would've guessed around 180cm)
Sicily: 186cm

Interesting.

Not that surprising given how often he floats across packs for big marks, definitely one of the best marking midfielders in recent memory, especially in pack situations. Genuinely think that element of the role is the standout positive and reason to put him in the role.

Not a strength of Tarrant, McDonald, Corr or really any of their other defenders with the exception of Walker who'd you probably be hoping isn't best 22 next year.

Speaking of North defenders, Flynn Perez would be incredibly high on my radar if he's good to go round 1. 193k defender but loved what I saw from his couple of games last year.

 

[Eagling]

Not arguing that point don't get me wrong but I think TT is a stepping stone for me

Oh that's a bold move, but you definitely can't discount any idea from a former overall winner

 

[Vicwood]

Positional value is the big difference. Taranto is value but will cost trades barring a big jump from his previous best. Heeney just needs to match his 4 season average and the premiums turn out like most expect (dropping a bit) and he's a discounted premium. Taranto offers very little value if he can't give 110 a real good crack.

The other concern is Taranto played 11 games last year and just wasn't very good and with a lot of other midfielders and his lack of damage with the ball it makes sense to prioritise them over him if you're the Giants. Kelly, Hopper and Coniglio are the first group. Green should be leading the second group. De Boer tagging is effectively a full time midfielder. Throw in Whitfield and Perryman on the outside and most of the prime spots are eaten up. Taranto also the best other than Coniglio in that group of playing a more peripheral forward role. Also have Greene, who is probably their best midfielder and Ward floating around that could get in the way.

Heeney has been a 95 guy in the role he'll most likely play and given how poor that role is there is only upside on role changes, if he goes back he's proven he's better, if he goes midfield he's proven he's considerably better. Durability is really the big question on him.

Taranto absolutely could be an amazing pick, if he gets back the glory role and learns to do damage and not rely so heavily on cheap fluff stats like he did in 2019 resulting in a ratio fix he could easily push past 110 but I think there's enough doubts about all of that being possible and/or happening to make him a very hard starting pick given that's what has to happen for him to make any sense as a pick.

Heeney needs to average what he did last year, with an injury impacted game in there and he's probably going to do the job. Taranto needs to be better than he's ever been.



Stevo in the midfield makes a lot of sense, total lack of development at the Pies (which is probably at least partly on him) but with his speed he should be in more damaging spots and I'd have thought long term you'd be wanting him to target a Dangerfield type role.

Ziebell I think a lot of people are both underrating and forgetting how good a mark he is and over focusing on a contested midfielder having a low DE% that isn't actually low compared to his peers in that kind of role anyway. His kicking is mechanically fine, he'll have a ton more time to execute and he should be very good in the air.

I actually think the HB role suits him to a tee. Always been a player who needs to have his run checked or he marks the ball. Kangas really lack that player and I'd think he's a very strong intercept mark player and we all know how golden those are in SC. He's bigger than Sicily who has starred in that role for comparison.

Stevo has many in front of him at North and is next to no chance of getting any midfield time this year. Last year couldn't pick up a lose ball with no pressure, had a season to forget. Hope he can turn it around.

Zieball, i think it is bold move to an unfamiliar roll.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Stevo has many in front of him at North and is next to no chance of getting any midfield time this year. Last year couldn't pick up a lose ball with no pressure, had a season to forget. Hope he can turn it around.

Zieball, i think it is bold move to an unfamiliar roll.

Did you see Noble’s presser yesterday ? Literally said Stephenson would play majority midfield this year. That’s a massive call to make that he is no chance to get any midfield time at all, purely based on what Noble said, and where he’s played in their intra club / match sims.

I neither agree nor disagree at this stage as to what his best position is, whether it be forward or mid, or a decent mix of both. But that statement just seems extremely closed off in comparison to what his coach said barely a day or so ago.

 

[McLovin]

Did you see Noble’s presser yesterday ? Literally said Stephenson would play majority midfield this year. That’s a massive call to make that he is no chance to get any midfield time at all, purely based on what Noble said, and where he’s played in their intra club / match sims.

I neither agree nor disagree at this stage as to what his best position is, whether it be forward or mid, or a decent mix of both. But that statement just seems extremely closed off in comparison to what his coach said barely a day or so ago.

I wonder what midfield means in this case. Stephenson roamed a bit at the Pies and often worked all the way up to half back, so I assume he has a decent running capacity. It would be perfectly logical to have him playing more wing/hff, he's great at finding space. But unless he's made some massive changes in his game and put on some muscle I have a really hard time seeing Stephenson getting more time in a position he'd encounter more contests in. Even putting his "efforts" last season aside he's never had much of an appetite for the contest.

 

[Dimmawit]

Positional value is the big difference. Taranto is value but will cost trades barring a big jump from his previous best. Heeney just needs to match his 4 season average and the premiums turn out like most expect (dropping a bit) and he's a discounted premium. Taranto offers very little value if he can't give 110 a real good crack.

The other concern is Taranto played 11 games last year and just wasn't very good and with a lot of other midfielders and his lack of damage with the ball it makes sense to prioritise them over him if you're the Giants. Kelly, Hopper and Coniglio are the first group. Green should be leading the second group. De Boer tagging is effectively a full time midfielder. Throw in Whitfield and Perryman on the outside and most of the prime spots are eaten up. Taranto also the best other than Coniglio in that group of playing a more peripheral forward role. Also have Greene, who is probably their best midfielder and Ward floating around that could get in the way.

Heeney has been a 95 guy in the role he'll most likely play and given how poor that role is there is only upside on role changes, if he goes back he's proven he's better, if he goes midfield he's proven he's considerably better. Durability is really the big question on him.

Taranto absolutely could be an amazing pick, if he gets back the glory role and learns to do damage and not rely so heavily on cheap fluff stats like he did in 2019 resulting in a ratio fix he could easily push past 110 but I think there's enough doubts about all of that being possible and/or happening to make him a very hard starting pick given that's what has to happen for him to make any sense as a pick.

Heeney needs to average what he did last year, with an injury impacted game in there and he's probably going to do the job. Taranto needs to be better than he's ever been.



Stevo in the midfield makes a lot of sense, total lack of development at the Pies (which is probably at least partly on him) but with his speed he should be in more damaging spots and I'd have thought long term you'd be wanting him to target a Dangerfield type role.

Ziebell I think a lot of people are both underrating and forgetting how good a mark he is and over focusing on a contested midfielder having a low DE% that isn't actually low compared to his peers in that kind of role anyway. His kicking is mechanically fine, he'll have a ton more time to execute and he should be very good in the air.

I actually think the HB role suits him to a tee. Always been a player who needs to have his run checked or he marks the ball. Kangas really lack that player and I'd think he's a very strong intercept mark player and we all know how golden those are in SC. He's bigger than Sicily who has starred in that role for comparison.

Like I said elsewhere I think the 'theory' around Heeney is OK to pick as a fwd but cause TT is in the mids then they aren't really comparable is 'good in theory' but just isn't how anyone's season will work out. Once you factor in DPP trades and the unknowns about what premos might become available at bargain prices can blow this out of the water before round 6.

To me I wanna max the salary cap for value and points and let it unfold. Again, we can run numbers about how many traders you need to complete a team and then classify trades as being right or wrong but the best trades, which impact rankings the most, aren't standard up and downs. Usually they are the ones which are a bit of roll of the dice which if they were posted here as ideas many would say "i wouldn't but hey good luck"