I actually think jelly was on track to miss just the 1 game last year. The knock out was a freak injury and was an absolutely massive hit from mummy! Nothing to do with being injury prone. 2 years ago Fyfe missed just the 1 game with his Own concussion so maybe they both play 22 games and not starting them will look silly come the end of the year!
Jelly is in the upper echelon of scorers and the more I’m writing this message the more I think I’m gonna start him at m3 behind safe guys in Macrae and Oliver
Take a close look at Jelly scores and you'll see he has a higher variance. As an owner over many years, I've felt it. Don't get me wrong, he is elite, but Leon gets in the way. It's taken a game or two of him getting off the leash to keep that avg up over the years. Carries a bit more risk than some others because of it.
Just had a cold shiver down my spine. If Gawn gets a long term injury, does that affect Oliver's SC scoring? I currently have Gawn and Oliver and that could be a double whammy to my team, hmmm?
Take a close look at Jelly scores and you'll see he has a higher variance. As an owner over many years, I've felt it. Don't get me wrong, he is elite, but Leon gets in the way. It's taken a game or two of him getting off the leash to keep that avg up over the years. Carries a bit more risk than some others because of it.
How much of that is constantly being injured and underdone?
2017 when he played the whole season he was very low variance (low of 87). 2018 his last two games were concussion related and then one game of 82 that appears to have a bad role from the stat lines. 2019 his first few games (after no preseason) were quiet and then an 82 his only game under 100 the rest of the way. 2020 he had an 89 in round 2 then missed round 3, so probably injury related, and then a 74 when Mummy killed him, otherwise couple of 90s his only other scores under 100.
Now obviously the amount of injuries I just listed is a problem but his scoring when fit has been pretty awesome and I think if you're picking him you're hoping a freak injury last year and two preseasons is what his body needs. Still a risky pick but he's a gifted player.
How much of that is constantly being injured and underdone?
2017 when he played the whole season he was very low variance (low of 87). 2018 his last two games were concussion related and then one game of 82 that appears to have a bad role from the stat lines. 2019 his first few games (after no preseason) were quiet and then an 82 his only game under 100 the rest of the way. 2020 he had an 89 in round 2 then missed round 3, so probably injury related, and then a 74 when Mummy killed him, otherwise couple of 90s his only other scores under 100.
Now obviously the amount of injuries I just listed is a problem but his scoring when fit has been pretty awesome and I think if you're picking him you're hoping a freak injury last year and two preseasons is what his body needs. Still a risky pick but he's a gifted player.
Im not so much worried about the injury games. Potentially being underdone feeds into it. For me it's outside 2019 there is usually 1 or 2 outrageously high scores, think the Carlton when they played 17 on the park that bump his avg up that really sends the variance haywire. In my team atm...
Bit of a simple view, but if you place Bont's scores from last year onto this years fixture he has a nightmare start. Could be a cheap trade in target.
Not sure on Taranto just because of how bad his scores were at times last year.
He did average 102 two years ago and I traded him in that season, but to me he has a questionable ceiling - he kicks a lot but can't kick and doesn't win a huge amount of CP's. His good traits are his ability to find the ball and tackle, both things which make him innately more suited to DT than SC.
So now everyone knows about the Oliver off season shoulder surgery what are we thinking? I read it on their big footy forum a while back but it’s only come out in the public today through a Mitch Cleary tweet.
Like titch as long as he’s named round 1 they’re 2 of about 5 that I’m confident will play 22 games going 110+. All about being named in round 1
So now everyone knows about the Oliver off season shoulder surgery what are we thinking? I read it on their big footy forum a while back but it’s only come out in the public today through a Mitch Cleary tweet.
Like titch as long as he’s named round 1 they’re 2 of about 5 that I’m confident will play 22 games going 110+. All about being named in round 1
The worst part is the contested pigs of the world in he and titch who are the elite of elite scorers have both had injury interrupted pre seasons. Can see both still going 115+ but hate the stigma of having players who’ve had an injury interrupted pre season.
Of the mids who hasn’t had an injury at some stage This off season?
Oliver Macrae (going wing) Bont (going forward) Fyfe (going forward young bulls coming for the crown) Merrett (crap team contract year though) jelly (durability) Steele (was it a fluke) all going well
The 2 blues walsh and Cripps look good but how many blues are we gonna start
Trac copped a shoulder knock in an intro club
Neale calf problems
Titch full on shoulder re construction
Danger groin troubles all pre season
Adams hammy
M crouch missed a big chunk of ore season
Rowell (barely done any contact work or note)
Who’s safe
Who’s not
Who’s a risk
Who’s value
At the end of the day I think we’ll still pick 1/2 guys from that injury interrupted list. Most players have question marks but I’m still most confident in the guys who’ve done it season after season
Top 5 imo will still be Neale Macrae Oliver titch and Fyfe
Adams was the disappointing one for mine - was bullish on him pushing up to the 115+ mark but he'll more than likely start the season a bit slower now. The real gamble we'll all be taking is who we will be able to get for a discount in rounds 6-9 once cash cows start to mature and then again over the bye rounds.
Just don’t know about forking out 500k for a player who has played 5 games and has had a interrupted preseason. Rowell or Simpkin it will be one of them.
Not sure on Taranto just because of how bad his scores were at times last year.
He did average 102 two years ago and I traded him in that season, but to me he has a questionable ceiling - he kicks a lot but can't kick and doesn't win a huge amount of CP's. His good traits are his ability to find the ball and tackle, both things which make him innately more suited to DT than SC.
I want to be all over him, but he is a massive sook and didn't appear to have a lot of mental toughness, in that he was put off his game way too easily by a solid tag in a number of games last year.
I'd want to see him bulk up a little and get the above-the-shoulders stuff in order, as he looks like he gets pushed around a little too easily.
I want to be all over him, but he is a massive sook and didn't appear to have a lot of mental toughness, in that he was put off his game way too easily by a solid tag in a number of games last year.
I'd want to see him bulk up a little and get the above-the-shoulders stuff in order, as he looks like he gets pushed around a little too easily.
Simpkin's poor games were horrendous and I'm not sure his body is an excuse, why was he out there when they were essentially playing for nothing if he was so impeded? For me the jump he has to make is just too big to be paying that price.
Im not so much worried about the injury games. Potentially being underdone feeds into it. For me it's outside 2019 there is usually 1 or 2 outrageously high scores, think the Carlton when they played 17 on the park that bump his avg up that really sends the variance haywire. In my team atm...
I mean I look at that ability as a strong positive? Variance only really a bad thing if he throws up stinkers, Kelly's big strength has been to basically not have a bad game when fit, so basically 90+ every week with a few 150+ type games when he gets off the leash or kicks well that can rapidly boost the average.
His durability record is the only thing that stops me locking him. Also in my team though