Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

[Herbie66]

@Connoisseur

Is it time for another Big O ride ?

Would you have his stats from last season with and without Martin please ?

TIA

 

[stephen]

For Flynn to really work out and burn, I think one of Grawndy will need an injury. Similar to the Witts year. If one somehow misses their Flynn matchup, it’ll be a big swing in favour of Flynn.

Can’t possibly predict this though.

I think there are a number of ways Flynn at R2 can burn non-starters.
First is if Meek plays and is a good cash cow that you miss out on in a lean year.
Second is if def rookies are really thin and everyone's relying on Cox on field and he gets dropped, and you can avoid carnage because of your structure.
Third is if he throws up Reilly O'Brien numbers.
Fourth is if Gawn just throws in a couple of low ones for whatever reason, particularly in spots where he is majority C.

There are lots of ways it burns the other way of course. But it's a big leverage spot I think.

 

[Bomber18]

I think there are a number of ways Flynn at R2 can burn non-starters.
First is if Meek plays and is a good cash cow that you miss out on in a lean year.
Second is if def rookies are really thin and everyone's relying on Cox on field and he gets dropped, and you can avoid carnage because of your structure.
Third is if he throws up Reilly O'Brien numbers.
Fourth is if Gawn just throws in a couple of low ones for whatever reason, particularly in spots where he is majority C.

There are lots of ways it burns the other way of course. But it's a big leverage spot I think.

Darcy could easily throw Meek out of the side and then it just becomes a dead rookie spot with no R/F! I think I’d prefer Traecy in R3 to allow an easier bailout option.

My Flynn R2 side would still have Cox at D6, not sure that a premo at D6 is the right play.

No.3, would want to see a bit more from him to suggest this. Only played Hickey and to the naked eye, it didn’t look like a 95-100 game.

4, could happen but the opposite could happen too easily with Gawn games against Freo, GWS, Cats, Hawks, Tigers early

 

[stephen]

Darcy could easily throw Meek out of the side and then it just becomes a dead rookie spot with no R/F! I think I’d prefer Traecy in R3 to allow an easier bailout option.

My Flynn R2 side would still have Cox at D6, not sure that a premo at D6 is the right play.

No.3, would want to see a bit more from him to suggest this. Only played Hickey and to the naked eye, it didn’t look like a 95-100 game.

4, could happen but the opposite could happen too easily with Gawn games against Freo, GWS, Cats, Hawks, Tigers early

Yes, would definitely want to see some sort of confirmation that Meek is ahead of Darcy, or that Darcy is a month or so off, before factoring him in as a positive to the move. But to me he is a big supplementary factor to the Flynn play that has to be taken notice of.

Maybe should have just framed it around the simpler proposition that a way Flynn burns is if he is 20+ points worth of value better than the on field rookie that he is replacing. I do think D6 is becoming another interesting leverage spot though. Maybe we just have to back Cox in. But one of the reasons people shy away from the gamble at R2 is that it's very hard to fix if it goes wrong. It's possible the same will be true for D6 this year. If it really is only Cox and Koschitzke as playing rookies then there's a very short step to some pretty difficult restructures in the same way there are if Flynn got dropped. I don't love the premo at D6 either but I see a lot of dodgy picks being used to fill out the def line and it's starting to appeal as a spot to target with a different strategy.

I don't know really. Certainly not predicting it. But we've seen it happen a few times now and don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility. That upside has to be part of the appeal of the pick.

Definitely agree. Big high upside/downside gamble which is part of the fun.

 

[Herbie66]

Flynn , Meek / Treacy

opens up all sorts of possibilities

D: 4 premiums + McEVOY & Cox

M: Neale , Oliver , Jelly , Danger , Life , Cripps + Dow & Campbell

F: Heeney , LOBB + ZDIC

 

[Deeman1]

Flynn , Meek / Treacy

opens up all sorts of possibilities

D: 4 premiums + McEVOY & Cox

M: Neale , Oliver , Jelly , Danger , Life , Cripps + Dow & Campbell

F: Heeney , LOBB + ZDIC

I think that spells 'disaster' @Herbie66

 

[Herbie66]

Gawn + Grundy = $ 1,399,600.00

Combined Average Last Season = 260.6

Neale + Steele = $ 1,369,800.00

Combined Average Last Season = 256.8

Maybe Gawn/Steele or Grundy/Neale is closer to Gawn/Grundy than people think

 

[Zagbag]

Gawn + Grundy = $ 1,399,600.00

Combined Average Last Season = 260.6

Neale + Steele = $ 1,369,800.00

Combined Average Last Season = 256.8

Maybe Gawn/Steele or Grundy/Neale is closer to Gawn/Grundy than people think

Scarcity of resources Herbie. How did the next two Mids compare to the next two Rucks?

 

[Herbie66]

I think that spells 'disaster' @Herbie66

On initial reflection you and others are probably right.

But humour me ( and we will use what ifs , hypotheticals and maybes)

Imagine if both Flynn & Meek are their sides #1 ruck for 4-6 rounds , what other $ 123,900.00 rookies are going to score just as much ?

If it completely looks doomed correct it in Round 3 via the Lobb-Treacy swing or trade out Meek to a rookie defender via McEvoy (maybe Gould or McLennan has actually debuted)

Still got 4 premium defenders & 6 ultra premium mids (Cripps @ M6) + Heeney

Think it is worth considering personally

 

[Deeman1]

On initial reflection you and others are probably right.

But humour me ( and we will use what ifs , hypotheticals and maybes)

Imagine if both Flynn & Meek are their sides #1 ruck for 4-6 rounds , what other $ 123,900.00 rookies are going to score just as much ?

If it completely looks doomed correct it in Round 3 via the Lobb-Treacy swing or trade out Meek to a rookie defender via McEvoy (maybe Gould or McLennan has actually debuted)

Still got 4 premium defenders & 6 ultra premium mids (Cripps @ M6) + Heeney

Think it is worth considering personally

I agree, but its a massive 'if'. If they were that good, where have they been unitl now?

If Grundy and Gawn go 1/2 by some margin again, even with good rookies i might prove very difficult to get them both in, its much easier to get a fallen premium to fill M8 than it is to get in 2 of the best scoring rucks.

I'm not saying wont work and it may be worth trying, just my opinion.

 

[Herbie66]

Scarcity of resources Herbie. How did the next two Mids compare to the next two Rucks?

Would you need to go that far down though if R2 is Flynn.

Wouldn't he just be taking the spot of say a similar priced midfield rookie onfield.

So

Gawn + rookie mid v Neale + Flynn

or

Grundy + rookie mid v Steele + Flynn

I guess what I am trying to figure out does Flynn outscore a onfield rookie mid same price.

And if so can you start Neale instead of Gawn or Steele instead of Grundy for similar price and output.

 

[Herbie66]

I agree, but its a massive 'if'. If they were that good, where have they been unitl now?

If Grundy and Gawn go 1/2 by some margin again, even with good rookies i might prove very difficult to get them both in, its much easier to get a fallen premium to fill M8 than it is to get in 2 of the best scoring rucks.

I'm not saying wont work and it may be worth trying, just my opinion.

Who ?

Cockatoo , Collier-Dawkins , Mead , E Smith , Stephens , Valente etc etc

Been in the system awhile maybe still awaiting opportunities , injured , not good enough etc

or do you mean Gould & McLennan ?

Understand all that about Gawn & Grundy.

I guess at the end of the day no one would have the Top 8 averaging mids in their sides in any case so certainly a lot more options available.

You already have 6 ultra premium mids though + 4 premium defenders so possibly upgrading to Gawn & Grundy is easier.

Lobb & McEvoy both get to $ 450-500k mark they might be only 1 rookie upgrade each away ($ 150k) possibly similar to using a Taranto type to get to a Neale , Steele , Oliver etc

 

[stephen]

On initial reflection you and others are probably right.

But humour me ( and we will use what ifs , hypotheticals and maybes)

Imagine if both Flynn & Meek are their sides #1 ruck for 4-6 rounds , what other $ 123,900.00 rookies are going to score just as much ?

If it completely looks doomed correct it in Round 3 via the Lobb-Treacy swing or trade out Meek to a rookie defender via McEvoy (maybe Gould or McLennan has actually debuted)

Still got 4 premium defenders & 6 ultra premium mids (Cripps @ M6) + Heeney

Think it is worth considering personally

If you're playing to win it's gotta be worth considering. For mine Grundy is the first picked, being the only player who I think ticks the three boxes of being fairly or underpriced, a good C option and a good contender to be top of their line. So I would need a very good reason to avoid. If you did it I reckon you have to go without parachutes. It's an all or nothing play and I think McEvoy and Lobb take away the all option. If you really think they can stand as premo picks on their own two feet then that's another thing, but I don't like either of them in that regard. I think your bet has to be that rookies fail completely in DEF and maybe also somewhere else, so you want to pack with genuine premos and value elsewhere that means you get maximum advantage if those rookies do fail. Given people are betting on those forward rookies coming through I would be packing that line and hope they score badly. Something like:



I guess you're making four bets:

That Meek and Flynn both play and score 70+
Both Gawn and Grundy don't fire (ie both sub 120ave)
DEF rookies completely fail and most teams are stuck with overpriced slow burning cash cows or even get donuts on field early
All cheap FWD rookies underscore (say sub50s) and most teams are stuck with at least one on field

Lot needs to go right and you're more likely to end up 100,000 than 1, but if you want to win the 50k it's definitely one path to glory.

edit: crouch should probably be danger actually

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366879667597111296

 

[Herbie66]

If you're playing to win it's gotta be worth considering. For mine Grundy is the first picked, being the only player who I think ticks the three boxes of being fairly or underpriced, a good C option and a good contender to be top of their line. So I would need a very good reason to avoid. If you did it I reckon you have to go without parachutes. It's an all or nothing play and I think McEvoy and Lobb take away the all option. If you really think they can stand as premo picks on their own two feet then that's another thing, but I don't like either of them in that regard. I think your bet has to be that rookies fail completely in DEF and maybe also somewhere else, so you want to pack with genuine premos and value elsewhere that means you get maximum advantage if those rookies do fail. Given people are betting on those forward rookies coming through I would be packing that line and hope they score badly. Something like:

View attachment 26646

I guess you're making four bets:

That Meek and Flynn both play and score 70+
Both Gawn and Grundy don't fire (ie both sub 120ave)
DEF rookies completely fail and most teams are stuck with overpriced slow burning cash cows or even get donuts on field early
All cheap FWD rookies underscore (say sub50s) and most teams are stuck with at least one on field

Lot needs to go right and you're more likely to end up 100,000 than 1, but if you want to win the 50k it's definitely one path to glory.

edit: crouch should probably be danger actually

Darcy looks like he could be playing Round 1 anyway so the Meek option could be gone already.

I do like looking at the possibilities.

My thoughts on McEvoy are that he could be the # 1 ruck again and has proven history in that role.

Similarly priced to Duggan & Williams.

Duggan plays mids until Yeo returns , Williams has had durability concerns all his career.

None of the $ 200-300k D5 options look terrific , would rather take a punt on S Martin at similar price.

Current D6-D8 is Butts , Cox , Ling all with questionable JS.

Koschitzke & Madden both doubtful.

Poor rookie D6 and people are thinking of a deliberate donut at D8 , spells trouble.

Fyfe idea works if you start Laird as a mid.

No Marshall , so looked at Lobb as the easiest swingset with Treacy , probably a 75-80 player which is not good enough (may need $ 200k to be upgraded)

I always finish closer to 100,000 than 1 anyway so nothing different their 😀

Like that team you posted very much and your explanation.

Essentially you have 4 onfield rookies to upgrade by your 7 bench players then ZDID during the Byes.

Then possibly luxury trades.

No guarantee the parachute works if you jump out of the plane in any case (probably just eases the mind that you are actually wearing one)

Everything changes with Community Series anyway.

Darcy back probably discounts Meek but definitely worth considering.

Certainly will be interesting to see how Flynn , McEvoy & Meek go.

Still think in simple terms you need to compare what Flynn & Meek could score against a comparable priced player then be able to get a similar option for Gawn and/or Grundy.

Grundy , Flynn / Treacy 🤔

just need the right D5 & D6 to get the edge over others.

Thanks again for such a detailed response , very much appreciated.

 

[Pieman17]

I think the Flynn argument is (for me anyway) a X v Y scenario.

Flynn and Neale V Gawn and mid rookie

In that scenario I think Neale can match Gawn quite easily, and I see Flynn considerably out scoring my 2nd best mid rookie on field.

Solo rucks score ridiculous points almost regardless of their talent. Although Flynn hasn’t played a game yet he is a few years in the system and is a decent size to play the role.

I think it all comes down to how well you see Gawn doing, how well you see Flynn doing and the number of good rookies we have on other lines.

 

[Herbie66]

I think the Flynn argument is (for me anyway) a X v Y scenario.

Flynn and Neale V Gawn and mid rookie

In that scenario I think Neale can match Gawn quite easily, and I see Flynn considerably out scoring my 2nd best mid rookie on field.

Solo rucks score ridiculous points almost regardless of their talent. Although Flynn hasn’t played a game yet he is a few years in the system and is a decent size to play the role.

I think it all comes down to how well you see Gawn doing, how well you see Flynn doing and the number of good rookies we have on other lines.

That explanation perfectly explains how I am/was trying to think.

Gawn & $ 123,900.00 mid

v

Neale & Flynn

 

[Chumpion]

I think the Flynn argument is (for me anyway) a X v Y scenario.

Flynn and Neale V Gawn and mid rookie

In that scenario I think Neale can match Gawn quite easily, and I see Flynn considerably out scoring my 2nd best mid rookie on field.

Solo rucks score ridiculous points almost regardless of their talent. Although Flynn hasn’t played a game yet he is a few years in the system and is a decent size to play the role.

I think it all comes down to how well you see Gawn doing, how well you see Flynn doing and the number of good rookies we have on other lines.

I agree from a starting team perspective, but I guess the "endgame" question is, what do you do with Flynn vs what do you do with that mid rookie?

There will often be a fallen mid premium that is much more "gettable" whether due to injury or form, where as turning Flynn into a viable ruck premium that won't bleed points to Gawn would be tricky (turning Flynn into Gawn feels pretty much impossible barring a disastrous run of injury/form).

There is also an argument to say the difference between Neale and the mid premium you end up with will be less than the difference between Gawn and the ruck premium you end up with.

Not to say it's not a viable option, just think you need to have an exit strategy for Flynn mapped out.

 

[Pieman17]

I agree from a starting team perspective, but I guess the "endgame" question is, what do you do with Flynn vs what do you do with that mid rookie?

There will often be a fallen mid premium that is much more "gettable" whether due to injury or form, where as turning Flynn into a viable ruck premium that won't bleed points to Gawn would be tricky (turning Flynn into Gawn feels pretty much impossible barring a disastrous run of injury/form).

There is also an argument to say the difference between Neale and the mid premium you end up with will be less than the difference between Gawn and the ruck premium you end up with.

Not to say it's not a viable option, just think you need to have an exit strategy for Flynn mapped out.

I disagree with the point that getting Gawn is ‘pretty much impossible’. I think any player is gettable as long as you plan for it and have the suitable cash cows.

 

[stephen]

I agree from a starting team perspective, but I guess the "endgame" question is, what do you do with Flynn vs what do you do with that mid rookie?

There will often be a fallen mid premium that is much more "gettable" whether due to injury or form, where as turning Flynn into a viable ruck premium that won't bleed points to Gawn would be tricky (turning Flynn into Gawn feels pretty much impossible barring a disastrous run of injury/form).

There is also an argument to say the difference between Neale and the mid premium you end up with will be less than the difference between Gawn and the ruck premium you end up with.

Not to say it's not a viable option, just think you need to have an exit strategy for Flynn mapped out.

Time warp post from the Rd 9 trade thread:
Ziebell ($412,600) + Flynn ($362,000)
For
Cockatoo ($123,900) + Gawn ($661,300)
(Had 10k left over from trading in Dunkley the week before after he was moved into the midfield)