Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

[Chumpion]

I disagree with the point that getting Gawn is ‘pretty much impossible’. I think any player is gettable as long as you plan for it and have the suitable cash cows.

Maybe not impossible but bloody hard.

Flynn to Gawn will likely require 3 trades minimum (2 down, then Flynn to Gawn). It also requires the timing to line up to the plan - what if Gawn drops in price but you don't have the cash cows that have made the cash? What if Gawn doesn't drop in price until later in the season? Would you carry Flynn (potentially -50 points vs Gawn) or would you look for a stepping stone ruck (which now makes it 4 trades to get Gawn). What does this mean for the rest of your team.. are you missing other key upgrades or the chance to get poorer scoring rookies off the field in the pursuit of Gawn?

I think Flynn as R2 only works if you are convinced that Gawn isn't going to have a good year (be it injury, form, covid, whatever) and so you are taking the risk on him. If you believe Gawn will score 130+ or is someone you want in your final team, then I can't see a viable way that you can get him mid season without heavily compromising the trading and upgrading strategy for the rest of your team.

 

[Chumpion]

Time warp post from the Rd 9 trade thread:
Ziebell ($412,600) + Flynn ($362,000)
For
Cockatoo ($123,900) + Gawn ($661,300)
(Had 10k left over from trading in Dunkley the week before after he was moved into the midfield)

God I wish I had a crystal ball like that! But no it's a fair point re: viability - I'm not an expert on scoring/price rises but what do Ziebell, Flynn and Gawn need to average for those round 9 prices to happen?

 

[stephen]

God I wish I had a crystal ball like that! But no it's a fair point re: viability - I'm not an expert on scoring/price rises but what do Ziebell, Flynn and Gawn need to average for those round 9 prices to happen?

Imprecise but about 85 for ziebell, 75 for Flynn and 130 for gawn, on assumption you went in Rd 9 because it matched up ok with a lower game from gawn.

 

[Ironhawk]

Time warp post from the Rd 9 trade thread:
Ziebell ($412,600) + Flynn ($362,000)
For
Cockatoo ($123,900) + Gawn ($661,300)
(Had 10k left over from trading in Dunkley the week before after he was moved into the midfield)

Cockatoo still $123K in Rd 9? I definitely wouldn't be bringing him in at that point.

Liking all this discussion by the way.

 

[stephen]

Cockatoo still $123K in Rd 9? I definitely wouldn't be bringing him in at that point.

Liking all this discussion by the way.

Didn't play till Rd 7. He's on the bubble after a couple of 70s

 

[Juzzo]

Meek looked really good in the highlight package.

 

[Chumpion]

Imprecise but about 85 for ziebell, 75 for Flynn and 130 for gawn, on assumption you went in Rd 9 because it matched up ok with a lower game from gawn.

That definitely isn't outside the realms of possibility. My first thought from reading this though was:

Ziebell ($412,600) + Flynn ($362,000) + Another rookie ($340,000)

Can become

Cockatoo (123k) + 2x fallen premiums at ~500k
vs
Cockatoo ($123,900) + Gawn ($661,300) + left over cash cow...

Definitely a danger of falling down the rabbit hole, but I guess this is something that will depend on the flow on impacts of multiple decisions rather than one isolated set of trades. And how good the remaining rookies end up being - if cash is an issue you might not be able to afford to burn the best two and still fill the team with good options.

 

[Zagbag]

If you're playing to win it's gotta be worth considering. For mine Grundy is the first picked, being the only player who I think ticks the three boxes of being fairly or underpriced, a good C option and a good contender to be top of their line. So I would need a very good reason to avoid. If you did it I reckon you have to go without parachutes. It's an all or nothing play and I think McEvoy and Lobb take away the all option. If you really think they can stand as premo picks on their own two feet then that's another thing, but I don't like either of them in that regard. I think your bet has to be that rookies fail completely in DEF and maybe also somewhere else, so you want to pack with genuine premos and value elsewhere that means you get maximum advantage if those rookies do fail. Given people are betting on those forward rookies coming through I would be packing that line and hope they score badly. Something like:

View attachment 26646

I guess you're making four bets:

That Meek and Flynn both play and score 70+
Both Gawn and Grundy don't fire (ie both sub 120ave)
DEF rookies completely fail and most teams are stuck with overpriced slow burning cash cows or even get donuts on field early
All cheap FWD rookies underscore (say sub50s) and most teams are stuck with at least one on field

Lot needs to go right and you're more likely to end up 100,000 than 1, but if you want to win the 50k it's definitely one path to glory.

edit: crouch should probably be danger actually

Have you considered Grundy, Flynn (Treacy) in the rucks with Bailey Williams F7? That at least gives you two safety nets (Treacy and Williams) if Flynn goes down.... could be tempting if all named.

 

[stephen]

Have you considered Grundy, Flynn (Treacy) in the rucks with Bailey Williams F7? That at least gives you two safety nets (Treacy and Williams) if Flynn goes down.... could be tempting if all named.

I have. I don't mind it, although if Williams is only good for F7 then it probably undermines it too much. If I thought he could be on field as a 70 then we'd be off to the races.

I am not seriously considering Flynn, Meek (Treacy), just enjoy the exercise.

If Meek plays though then the possible extra cash of Flynn (Meek) makes it very appealing to me. I doubt I'd be able to pass it up.

 

[Zagbag]

I have. I don't mind it, although if Williams is only good for F7 then it probably undermines it too much. If I thought he could be on field as a 70 then we'd be off to the races.

I am not seriously considering Flynn, Meek (Treacy), just enjoy the exercise.

If Meek plays though then the possible extra cash of Flynn (Meek) makes it very appealing to me. I doubt I'd be able to pass it up.

If NicNat comes back to a more reasonable TOG% as expected, and Williams is the clear second ruck, I think he can comfortably go 65-75

 

[Shannon]

Have you considered Grundy, Flynn (Treacy) in the rucks with Bailey Williams F7? That at least gives you two safety nets (Treacy and Williams) if Flynn goes down.... could be tempting if all named.

Just on Williams, he has an ankle injury & is very doubtful for round 1.

 

[Herbie66]

Have you considered Grundy, Flynn (Treacy) in the rucks with Bailey Williams F7? That at least gives you two safety nets (Treacy and Williams) if Flynn goes down.... could be tempting if all named.

Taberner likely to play the Community Series game according to reports might mean Treacy doesn't play.

 

[inwhiterooms]

I have. I don't mind it, although if Williams is only good for F7 then it probably undermines it too much. If I thought he could be on field as a 70 then we'd be off to the races.

I am not seriously considering Flynn, Meek (Treacy), just enjoy the exercise.

If Meek plays though then the possible extra cash of Flynn (Meek) makes it very appealing to me. I doubt I'd be able to pass it up.

I'm seeing this situation very similar to yourself.

Flynn and Meek are the two players I'm most looking forward to seeing this weekend.

The one thing that I don't love about the rookie R2 situation is that I feel it then becomes super important that we nail our defensive premium options.

Doesn't feel amazing paying top dollar for every defensive premium that isn't named Zac Williams.

 

[inwhiterooms]

For my team the x vs y becomes (with some loose projections):

Mills (105) / H. Young (80) / Oliver (120) / Flynn (75) @ 380pts
vs
Cox (65) / L. Jones (65) / Simpkin (110) / Gawn (130) @ 370pts

 

[Pieman17]

I'm seeing this situation very similar to yourself.

Flynn and Meek are the two players I'm most looking forward to seeing this weekend.

The one thing that I don't love about the rookie R2 situation is that I feel it then becomes super important that we nail our defensive premium options.

Doesn't feel amazing paying top dollar for every defensive premium that isn't named Zac Williams.

Yeah if you the money isn’t used well than going without Gawn/Grundy is pointless.

 

[stephen]

For my team the x vs y becomes (with some loose projections):

Mills (105) / H. Young (80) / Oliver (120) / Flynn (75) @ 380pts
vs
Cox (65) / L. Jones (65) / Simpkin (110) / Gawn (130) @ 370pts

Yeah I reckon if Cox and Jones are both playing and looking like 65aves it just about takes the juice out of the Flynn pick. Factoring in the captaincy advantage and lower risk I would definitely take option B with those projections.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Yeah if you the money isn’t used well than going without Gawn/Grundy is pointless.

Absolutely. I've got some loose projections above, but I'm sure some won't agree with them. Subjective predictions.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Yeah I reckon if Cox and Jones are both playing and looking like 65aves it just about takes the juice out of the Flynn pick. Factoring in the captaincy advantage and lower risk I would definitely take option B with those projections.

Yeah for sure. Wouldn't be too difficult to imagine a world where Cox and Jones are ~60 guys and Flynn possibly goes closer to 80.

Are you worried about paying top dollar for extra defensive premiums? Traditionally we've been able to pick up guys a little cheaper in this position, but a lot of the time it's through uncontrollables like an injury effected game etc.

 

[stephen]

Yeah for sure. Wouldn't be too difficult to imagine a world where Cox and Jones are ~60 guys and Flynn possibly goes closer to 80.

Are you worried about paying top dollar for extra defensive premiums? Traditionally we've been able to pick up guys a little cheaper in this position, but a lot of the time it's through uncontrollables like an injury effected game etc.

I'd be comfortable at 4 deep. I think Laird, Docherty and Williams are good value and Stewart a very solid safe pick which I always want a few of anyway. Most of my current versions end up with Mills as well. Would be perfect wait and see option usually but I don't want to risk being locked out from him if he goes ballistic and I can't target him because I don't have room. Not ideal but I prefer that than an h young type. When I go 6 deep it has to include Lloyd so it really kills the value. Will only do if betting against Cox looks really appealing.

 

[Leroy]

Yeah I reckon if Cox and Jones are both playing and looking like 65aves it just about takes the juice out of the Flynn pick. Factoring in the captaincy advantage and lower risk I would definitely take option B with those projections.

I think this is more key than I realised before.
If I forgoe Gawn to setup something like Grundy, Flynn (Meek) (if Meek plays that is) then I'm removing rookies off field elsewhere - effectively betting that being deeper with premiums on that line is a winning strategy.

As people have noted, that is harder than it looks. All it takes is for Nik Cox to take some big marks and post an 85 from D6 and all my 'saved' cash from Gawn to go up to an extra premium in DEF is suddenly not as valuable.

Sure, Flynn might be premium rookie, but since you're dropping a premium premium from the field to play him, he better be a whole lot better than the rookie he pushes out.