Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Erek22]

https://www.news.com.au/sport/kfc-s...t/news-story/1a2a28e77f69b1dc3cf9bc6cc3f520e8
*was Originally published asThe Phantom’s AAMI Series SuperCoach watchlist

The AAMI Community series is here and it could be the most important round of pre-season matches in KFC SuperCoach history.

Intra-club hitouts gave KFC SuperCoaches a taste of how teams might shape up and we learnt a lot from last week’s practice games.
But this is the first – and last – official pre-season fixture before premiership points are up for grabs.
It’s the Round 1 dress rehearsal for clubs.
There will be KFC SuperCoach scores to digest, but it’s also vital to take note of who’s playing – and where – and who’s not.
Here’s what to watch for.

CARLTON v ST KILDA
Marvel Stadium, Thursday
CARLTON
B: S. Docherty 15 J. Weitering 23 L. Plowman 20
HB: Z. Williams 6 L. Jones 14 A. Saad 42
C: E. Curnow 35 P. Cripps 9 W. Setterfield 43
HF: J. Martin 21 O. McDonald 39 L. Fogarty 8
F: M. Murphy 3 H. McKay 10 Z. Fisher 25
Foll: M. Pittonet 27 P. Dow 2 S. Walsh 18
I/C: S. Petrevski-Seton 5 J. Newnes 32 J. Silvagni 1 T. Williamson 31 L. O’Brien 4 C. Moore 45 M. Gibbons 40 D. Cuningham 28
Emerg: L. Stocker 13 M. Owies 44 M. Kennedy 7 L. Parks 26

WATCHLIST
Paddy Dow ($202,400, Mid-Fwd)
After a blistering midfield performance in the practice match, all eyes will be on the former No. 3 pick. He’s been named on the ball for the Blues and if he does attend majority of centre bounces, and back-up his practice match performance, we might have to pick him at that price. Is this the year he finally delivers on his potential?
Zac Williams ($458,600, Def)
The former Giant started at the first centre bounce, alongside Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh, against the Bombers, but has been named at half-back for the clash against the Saints. And, last month, teammate Jack Martin hinted at the possible midfield-forward role he might share with Williams. Keep a close eye and where he starts – and finishes – and how much footy he can get his hands on through the midfield.
Patrick Cripps ($523,700, Mid)
After slimming down and struggling with injury last year, Cripps has added a few kilograms over summer in a bid to return to the body shape which saw him dominate the previous two seasons. And it was a sight to behold in the practice match, so just enjoy it on Thursday night. Watch for the Blues co-captain to convince you to pick him.
Lochie O’Brien ($180,500 Mid)
The No. 10 pick from the 2010 draft played 35 of a possible 44 matches in his first two seasons at the Blues but fell out of favour last year. But he’s got his run - or “weapon” as coach David Teague put it – back and, if he can win a spot, should build on his 45-point average from 2019.
Sam Walsh ($543,400, Mid)
Walsh averaged 114 KFC SuperCoach points in his final 11 matches last year after his inside game developed dramatically in the second-half of the season, on the back of more exposure in the role. And he looks set to continue on-ball after an impressive pre-season – keep an eye on his centre bounce numbers.
MISSING:Liam Stocker ($186,500 Def) has been named as emergency in another blow to the KFC SuperCoach rookie-price defender stocks and draftee Corey Durdin ($117,300 Md-Fwd) isn’t even in the squad.
PRE-AAMI SERIES EXPERT TEAMS:The Phantom | Al Paton | Tim Michell

ST KILDA
B: N. Coffield 1 D. Howard 20 J. Frawley 24
HB: H. Clark 11 C. Wilkie 44 J. Webster 29
C: J. Billings 15 J. Gresham 4 B. Hill 8
HF: J. Higgins 22 J. Battle 26 D. Butler 16
F: T. Membrey 28 M. King 12 S. McKernan 27
Foll: P. Hunter 41 J. Steele 9 J. Sinclair 35
I/C: B. Long 21 B. Crouch 5 S. Ross 6 J. Lonie 13 T. Highmore 34 D. McKenzie 36 J. Bytel 23 M. Wood 32
Emerg: L. Dunstan 7 J. Carlisle 2 D. Joyce 39 D. Kent 25
WATCHLIST
Tom Highmore ($117,300, Def)
The mature-age draftee, who’s impressed everyone at the Saints, was the No. 1 ranked player in the SANFL for intercept marks last year and posted KFC SuperCoach scores of 112, 76, 103, 163, 108 and 146 in the opening six rounds before injury. Can he do enough across half-back to ensure a Round 1 debut?

Jack Higgins ($419,600 Fwd)
Higgins booted four goals – and handed off a number of others – in a standout performance against North Melbourne in the practice matches. And he was also lively through the middle when given the chance. The former Tiger is the KFC SuperCoach junior record holder so keep an eye on how many midfield minutes he gets against the Blues.
Jack Steele ($658,000, Mid)
He was the star of last year but does the addition of Brad Crouch result in Steele’s numbers taking a hit? Probably not. But it could stop them from climbing. Watch how the pair work together on Thursday night.
Paul Hunter ($102,400 Ruck)
The newest Saint, added as an SPP signing following Rowan Marshall’s injury and a standout intra-club performance, averaged 136 KFC SuperCoach points at SANFL level last year.

Jack Bytel ($280,500 Mid)
The No. 41 pick from the 2018 draft played an impressive three games in 2020 after a horror run with injury. And he attended plenty of centre bounces in the warm-up game. Awkward price but Bytel could be a good scorer if he can squeeze in.
Jade Gresham ($438,100, Mid)
Loss of forward status, and a limited pre-season, has resulted in very little talk about Gresham in KFC SuperCoach circles. But as a centre-bounce midfielder, he can score.
Jimmy Webster ($274,000, Def)
He averaged 104 points in the opening 12 rounds of 2018 but has battled injury for most of the time since, failing to play a single game last year. But Webster is in and could push further up the ground from half-back this season.

 

[Erek22]

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/03/04/garry-lyons-six-takeaways-from-st-kilda-versus-carlton/

Garry Lyon has named his six takeaways from Thursday night’s pre-season game.

St Kilda defeated Carlton in a 125-99 shootout last night, with 34 goals kicked in total.

The former Melbourne captain has made some snap judgements on players from both teams.

Firstly, the St Kilda defender who stood out to him.

“Callum Wilkie may well be an All-Australian defender by the end of this year,” Lyon told SEN Breakfast.

“That bloke, the story is wonderful, he didn’t come through the conventional pathways, he’s now a member of their leadership group, that’s how highly regarded he is.

“He is an outstanding defender. I think he could be an All-Australian defender. He takes Dusty Martin, he took Patrick Cripps last night, he just doesn’t get beaten.”

His second takeaway also related to a St Kilda defender.

“The half-back flank, where you go when you need a lifeline, has claimed another victim and that’s Jack Sinclair,” he said.

“Sinclair’s been a bit in and out, a bit of midfield, a bit of a goal kicker, a talented kid – goes to half-back and looks like Russell Greene.

“He had 28 possessions, half-back is the place to go.”

Lyon was impressed with the effort put in by Carlton forward Jack Silvagni.

“This might sound really stupid, but I rate this. Jack Silvagni tries hard every time,” Lyon said.

“(Everyone) is supposed to (try hard every time) and they don’t. He just wills himself to contests. He’s not the best player on the team, but he tries hard.

“If you’re a coach, having a bloke that tries hard every time, he won’t die wondering. He was great last night.”

Another Carlton forward also caught Lyon’s eye.

“Zac Fisher’s got 40 goals in him, at least I reckon,” he said.

“The story emerged late last year … the penny dropped and he said ‘righto, I’ll embrace being a small forward’.

“I was just able to watch him because I didn’t have to watch the whole ground and he’s worked at his craft as a small forward, he is very hard to defend.

“Too many small forwards are easy to defend, he was constantly on the move, darting in and out, he was flipping Jimmy Webster around and turning him inside out.

“I think he’s got 40 in him.”

Lyon is also bullish on a young St Kilda midfielder who continues to get better.

“Hunter Clark is as good as everyone says he is,” Lyon said.

“It’s pretty simple. He looks like someone that’s going to go to another level.”

Lyon’s worry coming out of the game for Carlton was how easily they were to score against, in particular the team’s rebounding defenders Adam Saad and Sam Docherty.

“Saad and Docherty will get slaughtered if they were as loose as they were in the first quarter,” he said.

“Maybe that was the tempo, Saad had his tongue hanging out early and after half-time he was so much better.

“They’ve got a balancing act there. Docherty likes to play off and dictate and be that man in the hole and Saad likes to run and gun.

“The small forwards for St Kilda slaughtered them last night. Slaughtered them. They’re going to have to weigh up whether one of them has to play tighter than they would like to.”

 

[Beast_Mode]

Jordan Clark Def/Mid at $241,800 has caught my attention

He definitely has my attention now!

 

[Under The Dome]

FORGOTTEN tall Josh Jenkins is in the frame to face former side Adelaide in round one with Geelong planning to play two ruck options alongside their new Coleman Medal combination.

Jenkins joined beanpole Sam De Koning in the ruck in the Cats' AAMI Community Series win on Saturday night with Rhys Stanley (concussion) and Esava Ratugolea (leg knock) sidelined.

While Stanley will be ready to face the Crows on March 20 and assume the No.1 ruck mantle, Ratugolea's absence from both of the Cats' pre-season hitouts will put his chances in doubt.

Assistant coach Matthew Knights all but confirmed the Cats would play a third tall alongside spearheads Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron with quarters returning to full-length in 2021.

It leaves Jenkins firmly in the mix to add to his solitary game in Cats colours that came in his first season at the club last year.

"With Josh and Esava they can certainly play that forward/second ruckman," Knights said following the Cats' seven-point win over the Bombers.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/557040/remember-me-former-crow-in-mix-for-cats-ruck-role

 

[Wheedus]

I’ve seen enough now to confirm running backs who take kick-ins are even greater SC gold this year. They are clearly benefitting from two of the rule changes.

 

[Chumpion]

I’ve seen enough now to confirm running backs who take kick-ins are even greater SC gold this year. They are clearly benefitting from two of the rule changes.

The irony is, I had guys like Williams, Duggan and Hunter Clarke in my team on the appearance of them playing extra midfield time.. looks like that hurts their scoring compared to some of the backline roles!

 

[freowho]

I’ve seen enough now to confirm running backs who take kick-ins are even greater SC gold this year. They are clearly benefiting from two of the rule changes.

I assume we are looking for a player that is no.1 at their club in this role. Laird in the mids and possibly Mills means we need the 4 or 5 best for our backline and possibly someone with a role change on another line.
The combination of kick ins and running back might not be that common.
Premiums
Lloyd, Short, Ridley, Docherty........
Cash cows
HYoung, Clarke, Cahill.......
I haven't seen any action from the preseason games so please add/correct my limited observations.
It probably pushes up the expectations of our defenders. 95 at D6 might not cut it unless you paid under 400k.
Preseason kick in numbers would be handy.

 

[freowho]

The irony is, I had guys like Williams, Duggan and Hunter Clarke in my team on the appearance of them playing extra midfield time.. looks like that hurts their scoring compared to some of the backline roles!

I was thinking this too. It's becoming a game of kick to kick between the backlines. I still think the uber mids will do well but those down the pecking order probably fall just short. I was surprised how excited some were getting about Zilliams kicking goals in a preseason game.

 

[Chumpion]

I was thinking this too. It's becoming a game of kick to kick between the backlines. I still think the uber mids will do well but those down the pecking order probably fall just short. I was surprised how excited some were getting about Zilliams kicking goals in a preseason game.

Completely agree. My other worry is that the traditional midfield structures (based on the rolling mauls, etc) will be a bit different this year so while the normal extractor types will still do well in the contest, the run and spread mids will probably see a bump to their scoring vs previous seasons when the game is "in play" and opens up a bit.

 

[Vicwood]

I’ve seen enough now to confirm running backs who take kick-ins are even greater SC gold this year. They are clearly benefitting from two of the rule changes.

Who will be the best 3.

I am now thinking Lloyd Laird Daniels Ridley.?

 

[Darkie]

I’ve seen enough now to confirm running backs who take kick-ins are even greater SC gold this year. They are clearly benefitting from two of the rule changes.

I was asking the Leadership Group about this after Short’s score.

Who would we put in this category?

I’m particularly interested in those who haven’t played their last preseason game yet (a bit like establishing a hypothesis that we can test).

I had a horrific experience changing my side last minute last year to reflect a rule change, so just trying to add a bit more rigour to the process I’m using!

 

[Chumpion]

Who will be the best 3.

I am now thinking Lloyd Laird Daniels Ridley.?

I was asking the Leadership Group about this after Short’s score.

Who would we put in this category?

I’m particularly interested in those who haven’t played their last preseason game yet (a bit like establishing a hypothesis that we can test).

I had a horrific experience changing my side last minute last year to reflect a rule change, so just trying to add a bit more rigour to the process I’m using!

I think anyone who is a dedicated kick in taker is gold (bit obvious) but also would look for the guys than can stay mobile/spread and are good users of the ball. I see the scoring benefit coming from a few scenarios:

- 1/2 from kicks ins, doing a short kick then running past for the collect and getting the ball 70m+ from goal

- play on from the square and run (some players managed to run close to 25m before kicking I reckon) which gets the ball to the wing

(both of the above should result in a long effective kick at a minimum)

- being able to spread to take advantage of the "maintain possession" kicks. Given the benefits of the new rules teams will absolutely want their elite kicks being the ones that exit D50/get the ball up the ground, so I can see a player with average footskills looking to do a cheap chip to space where a better kick can lead into. Uncontested mark and then effective kick after that should result in a few points.

These are things on top of the usual scoring buffers a lot of the best defenders get (intercept marks, intercept possessions, tackles, etc).

I can definitely see the following being big beneficiaries of the rule changes:

Ridley - elite kick, good intercept mark, and will own kick ins due to his kicking skills. He won't often charge 20m before kicking but he'll almost always leave the square and get 10m or so before kicking. Based on the bombers defensive pressure that will hopefully mean a lot of points get kicked!

Daniel - an energiser bunny. He will be roaming around everywhere and they love him being the exit kick so can see the ball finding him a lot. He'll get plenty of the ball and use it well. I've moved him into my team even before his preseason game!

Short - we saw how he'll benefit the other night. 950m gained.. that's wild. He will do what Saad could never do at the bombers.. run the ball and then kick to advantage up the field (rather than dump kicks over the leading forwards...). The only question I have with Short is that richmond have a few other guys who can do a similar thing - Baker, Houli (when fit) amongst others, so where as Ridley/Daniel that will be THE man, short may occasionally share that and may not necessarily be the go to every time.

Whitfield - when finally fit he'll dominate these rules. His running ability will work wonders.. won't necessarily get kick in points but will more than make up for those around the ground.

Howe - if I was confident he could stay fit he'd be a lock. He'll score insanely well when he's out there.. good mix of all the right attributes to take advantage of the rules.. but I just can't see a world where he doesn't end up missing at least 5-6 games and with the question marks over backline rookies, that PiT60 score starts to look a bit dicey.

I would fade any defender premium that doesn't have kicking as a main strength - they can still score well off other aspects like intercept marking but can see them falling behind the guys who will get +5-10ppg capitalising off these new rules.

 

[McLovin]

I was asking the Leadership Group about this after Short’s score.

Who would we put in this category?

I’m particularly interested in those who haven’t played their last preseason game yet (a bit like establishing a hypothesis that we can test).

I had a horrific experience changing my side last minute last year to reflect a rule change, so just trying to add a bit more rigour to the process I’m using!

Last season I decided to have some fun and mostly pick players I thought were good burst scorers like De Goey and Coniglio. None of the changes worked out for me and I was lucky I gave up after the Collingwood-Bulldogs game because the season clearly wasn't going to start properly anyway. So yes, I thoroughly agree on the importance of being more rigorous. Currently somewhat tempted to go with the wait and see approach over the load up on 5 premium defenders because I'm certain x will happen approach.

I think anyone who is a dedicated kick in taker is gold (bit obvious) but also would look for the guys than can stay mobile/spread and are good users of the ball. I see the scoring benefit coming from a few scenarios:

- 1/2 from kicks ins, doing a short kick then running past for the collect and getting the ball 70m+ from goal

- play on from the square and run (some players managed to run close to 25m before kicking I reckon) which gets the ball to the wing

(both of the above should result in a long effective kick at a minimum)

- being able to spread to take advantage of the "maintain possession" kicks. Given the benefits of the new rules teams will absolutely want their elite kicks being the ones that exit D50/get the ball up the ground, so I can see a player with average footskills looking to do a cheap chip to space where a better kick can lead into. Uncontested mark and then effective kick after that should result in a few points.

These are things on top of the usual scoring buffers a lot of the best defenders get (intercept marks, intercept possessions, tackles, etc).

I can definitely see the following being big beneficiaries of the rule changes:

Ridley - elite kick, good intercept mark, and will own kick ins due to his kicking skills. He won't often charge 20m before kicking but he'll almost always leave the square and get 10m or so before kicking. Based on the bombers defensive pressure that will hopefully mean a lot of points get kicked!

Daniel - an energiser bunny. He will be roaming around everywhere and they love him being the exit kick so can see the ball finding him a lot. He'll get plenty of the ball and use it well. I've moved him into my team even before his preseason game!

Short - we saw how he'll benefit the other night. 950m gained.. that's wild. He will do what Saad could never do at the bombers.. run the ball and then kick to advantage up the field (rather than dump kicks over the leading forwards...). The only question I have with Short is that richmond have a few other guys who can do a similar thing - Baker, Houli (when fit) amongst others, so where as Ridley/Daniel that will be THE man, short may occasionally share that and may not necessarily be the go to every time.

Whitfield - when finally fit he'll dominate these rules. His running ability will work wonders.. won't necessarily get kick in points but will more than make up for those around the ground.

Howe - if I was confident he could stay fit he'd be a lock. He'll score insanely well when he's out there.. good mix of all the right attributes to take advantage of the rules.. but I just can't see a world where he doesn't end up missing at least 5-6 games and with the question marks over backline rookies, that PiT60 score starts to look a bit dicey.

I would fade any defender premium that doesn't have kicking as a main strength - they can still score well off other aspects like intercept marking but can see them falling behind the guys who will get +5-10ppg capitalising off these new rules.

The problem I see is that we're faced with an over-supply of this sort of player already and they can't possibly all see a big scoring bump. Never bet against coaches finding a way to counteract the intended effects of rule changes.

 

[Chumpion]

Last season I decided to have some fun and mostly pick players I thought were good burst scorers like De Goey and Coniglio. None of the changes worked out for me and I was lucky I gave up after the Collingwood-Bulldogs game because the season clearly wasn't going to start properly anyway. So yes, I thoroughly agree on the importance of being more rigorous. Currently somewhat tempted to go with the wait and see approach over the load up on 5 premium defenders because I'm certain x will happen approach.

The problem I see is that we're faced with an over-supply of this sort of player already and they can't possibly all see a big scoring bump. Never bet against coaches finding a way to counteract the intended effects of rule changes.

Definitely a risk that these guys start to see a tag, however I think coaches are more likely to work on a structure that sits further out from goal (bascially moving the wall back) as tagging one player won't fix the problem of how easy it is to move the ball 70-80m.

That said, I do think it means you want the guys with a few more strings to their bows.. if they are just an elite kick but don't have kick ins or intercept marking to also generate points they could be in trouble.

 

[Wheedus]

I look at the oversupply of defender premo / under-premo as a blessing. It means there are more ways to win (ie you don’t have to nail the “top six”. I’ve said it before, you don’t need the best six. You just need to pick six that perform at or above your expectation and give you those 103s.

A player like Daniel was already uber consistent, so for me the likely benefit to him makes him a lock.

Short is not going to do what he did Friday every round but he demonstrated how lucrative the role can be. He loves to play on and has a great leg on him.

As for the defenders playing mid roles, I think you’ve gotta take a couple for balance so you don’t have all your eggs in one basket. Laird is a pretty easy pick. I like Mills. If he is thrown back, he’ll benefit anyway.

It will be more interesting if a few more viable rookies pop up in DEF. Then we’ll have to make some choices. Not looking like it at this stage but there are still a few games to play, injuries to occur and Rd1 teams to be selected.

Jordan Clark is a Godsend if he maintains that role.

 

[Darkie]

Great discussion, thanks @Chumpion @McLovin.

Will keep a close eye on the scoring of the players named above, to see how they fare.

One thing that did occur to me is that a player who is already an elite kick may be getting effective kicks out of the back line already, so they don’t necessarily benefit that much from improved ability to get over the 40m threshold and qualify as effective.

A weaker kick who still gets a lot of it may now be more likely to be able to have that kick marked as effective, meaning they potentially see more upside.

I think this assumes no major change in play before the mark occurs, or in propensity of each player to try to take the exit kick out of the back half.

If teams do try to get the ball in the hands of a really strong kicker to a greater extent than previously, clearly that helps that player a lot. It seems like Short may be in this category, which could be a big plus if Richmond continue to use this approach, albeit Houli could have an impact when he returns.

One thing I’d flag is that metres gained could be a useful indicator/reflection of what is changing, but I don’t think whether (say) Ridley runs 10 or 20 out of the square changes his SC points on that play (unless he bounces incrementally). It helps his metres gained but I think SC score is unchanged. Could be more likely to see it come back his way if he just runs the 10 though, as you say!

 

[freowho]

I look at the oversupply of defender premo / under-premo as a blessing. It means there are more ways to win (ie you don’t have to nail the “top six”. I’ve said it before, you don’t need the best six. You just need to pick six that perform at or above your expectation and give you those 103s.

A player like Daniel was already uber consistent, so for me the likely benefit to him makes him a lock.

Short is not going to do what he did Friday every round but he demonstrated how lucrative the role can be. He loves to play on and has a great leg on him.

As for the defenders playing mid roles, I think you’ve gotta take a couple for balance so you don’t have all your eggs in one basket. Laird is a pretty easy pick. I like Mills. If he is thrown back, he’ll benefit anyway.

It will be more interesting if a few more viable rookies pop up in DEF. Then we’ll have to make some choices. Not looking like it at this stage but there are still a few games to play, injuries to occur and Rd1 teams to be selected.

Jordan Clark is a Godsend if he maintains that role.

I think we have to question the part timers like Williams, HClarke and Duggan. Compared to Lloyd, Ryan, Ridley, Stewart, Daniel, Short etc.
If they were under $400k and got to 95 you could carry one at D6 or loop at D7. But I don't think the ones mentioned carry enough value if the backline becomes more lucrative.
The forwards are looking like the opposite. Last year there were 5 good forwards and then Simpkin and Bailey Smith ended as decent F6's with low 90 averages.

 

[Chumpion]

Great discussion, thanks @Chumpion @McLovin.

Will keep a close eye on the scoring of the players named above, to see how they fare.

One thing that did occur to me is that a player who is already an elite kick may be getting effective kicks out of the back line already, so they don’t necessarily benefit that much from improved ability to get over the 40m threshold and qualify as effective.

A weaker kick who still gets a lot of it may now be more likely to be able to have that kick marked as effective, meaning they potentially see more upside.

I think this assumes no major change in play before the mark occurs, or in propensity of each player to try to take the exit kick out of the back half.

If teams do try to get the ball in the hands of a really strong kicker to a greater extent than previously, clearly that helps that player a lot. It seems like Short may be in this category, which could be a big plus if Richmond continue to use this approach, albeit Houli could have an impact when he returns.

One thing I’d flag is that metres gained could be a useful indicator/reflection of what is changing, but I don’t think whether (say) Ridley runs 10 or 20 out of the square changes his SC points on that play (unless he bounces incrementally). It helps his metres gained but I think SC score is unchanged. Could be more likely to see it come back his way if he just runs the 10 though, as you say!

I think you're on the money, but for mine the benefit to the elite kicks will come from a combination of teams trying to funnel the ball through them more (say 5+ possessions on normal expected averages) and the fact teams will actually lower their eyes a little and try to bite off more 25-30m passes. I think the days of "territory football" will shift a little towards more of a possession/criss cross style which will benefit the better kick as missing that pass is 0 or negative points, so they'll want to hit it!

I also think there are a fair few players in the team operating under "ruckman rules" which is basically, if you have to kick the ball.. kick it long! Would rather a turn over up the field rather than biting off a kick that just isn't in their skillset.

I'm super keen to see how it plays out.. but I can definitely see a scoring bump for a group of guys who either get increased opportunity via a bit of a quarterback role, or by a slight increase in effective kicks (albeit short ones). I don't think it'll necessarily break the game.. but wouldn't at all surprise me if we see +5-8 on a lot of expected averages which is enough to make a big difference over the season!

 

[Darkie]

I think you're on the money, but for mine the benefit to the elite kicks will come from a combination of teams trying to funnel the ball through them more (say 5+ possessions on normal expected averages) and the fact teams will actually lower their eyes a little and try to bite off more 25-30m passes. I think the days of "territory football" will shift a little towards more of a possession/criss cross style which will benefit the better kick as missing that pass is 0 or negative points, so they'll want to hit it!

I also think there are a fair few players in the team operating under "ruckman rules" which is basically, if you have to kick the ball.. kick it long! Would rather a turn over up the field rather than biting off a kick that just isn't in their skillset.

I'm super keen to see how it plays out.. but I can definitely see a scoring bump for a group of guys who either get increased opportunity via a bit of a quarterback role, or by a slight increase in effective kicks (albeit short ones). I don't think it'll necessarily break the game.. but wouldn't at all surprise me if we see +5-8 on a lot of expected averages which is enough to make a big difference over the season!

This is a good point.

If the man on the mark rule increases the (real life) value of a mark, teams should tilt towards trying to take more of them. Less about territory, more about possession (you can make up the territory on the next kick ... potentially with the ball ending up in the corridor rather than the boundary as well).

This then benefits the players taking more marks and/or seeing more SC value from the disposals that follow.

 

[Chumpion]

This is a good point.

If the man on the mark rule increases the (real life) value of a mark, teams should tilt towards trying to take more of them. Less about territory, more about possession (you can make up the territory on the next kick ... potentially with the ball ending up in the corridor rather than the boundary as well).

This then benefits the players taking more marks and/or seeing more SC value from the disposals that follow.

Yep that’s a much more eloquent way of summing up what I was trying to say!