Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[McLovin]

Great discussion, thanks @Chumpion @McLovin.

Will keep a close eye on the scoring of the players named above, to see how they fare.

One thing that did occur to me is that a player who is already an elite kick may be getting effective kicks out of the back line already, so they don’t necessarily benefit that much from improved ability to get over the 40m threshold and qualify as effective.

A weaker kick who still gets a lot of it may now be more likely to be able to have that kick marked as effective, meaning they potentially see more upside.

I think this assumes no major change in play before the mark occurs, or in propensity of each player to try to take the exit kick out of the back half.

If teams do try to get the ball in the hands of a really strong kicker to a greater extent than previously, clearly that helps that player a lot. It seems like Short may be in this category, which could be a big plus if Richmond continue to use this approach, albeit Houli could have an impact when he returns.

One thing I’d flag is that metres gained could be a useful indicator/reflection of what is changing, but I don’t think whether (say) Ridley runs 10 or 20 out of the square changes his SC points on that play (unless he bounces incrementally). It helps his metres gained but I think SC score is unchanged. Could be more likely to see it come back his way if he just runs the 10 though, as you say!

I can certainly see Ziebell for example benefitting because he'll find it easier to run and kick long and high to a contest instead of trying to hit short kicks. The thing that interests me there is that going as long as possible from the kick in is still risky from what we've seen so far. As in the past, there's still a greater than 50% chance that the opposition is set up for it better and the ball comes back inside 50 from a central position rather than the easier to control kick to a contest near the boundary. I wonder whether teams will continue to use this option regularly in the real stuff.

The thing that strikes me with players like Short and Rich who actually play for good sides is that they were already key to their team's ball movement before the rule change and were already being fed the ball when possible. However, unlike say the Swans or Bulldogs with Lloyd and Daniel they aren't necessarily being force fed the ball and allowed to run around looking for a cheap kicks all game with no regard for defensive structures. I suppose the question is how much these players who are already up there in metres gained and kicks per game will benefit from it being easier to play on and hit inside kicks.

Obviously Lloyd and Whitfield aren't playing today, but I think there could still be something to the fact that the likes of Dawson, Ash, Cumming etc aren't exactly thriving in a higher pressure game.

 

[wogitalia]

I think the big change for the kick-in rule might be for the bad kicks, no longer having to kick over the man on the mark to hit short targets might make it a lot easier on them, lot more skill in hitting a short looped kick than just a short kick.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1368773972444123141

 

[Gruffles]

I think the big change for the kick-in rule might be for the bad kicks, no longer having to kick over the man on the mark to hit short targets might make it a lot easier on them, lot more skill in hitting a short looped kick than just a short kick.

Do you see wingers like Gaff and McCluggage benefitted in any way from the new rules thus far?
Or just mainly the run and carry backs ?

 

[wogitalia]

Do you see wingers like Gaff and McCluggage benefitted in any way from the new rules thus far?
Or just mainly the run and carry backs ?

Logically they should but so far can't say I've noticed it. It's actually be more the spread from the contest midfielders (Macrae, Kelly, Phillips, Merrett, Shuey et al) that have stood out to me, the guys who get that short kick from free kicks and the like after stoppages. Logically Neale should also be great for this.

The wings should benefit but outside the Suns/Lions and to a lesser extent Dockers/Eagles games there has definitely been a pronounced usage of the corridor which cuts the wingers out a bit.

Still think they will end up scoring well though, it's just hard for them with the sheer volume they need to get every week.

 

[Gruffles]

Logically they should but so far can't say I've noticed it. It's actually be more the spread from the contest midfielders (Macrae, Kelly, Phillips, Merrett, Shuey et al) that have stood out to me, the guys who get that short kick from free kicks and the like after stoppages. Logically Neale should also be great for this.

The wings should benefit but outside the Suns/Lions and to a lesser extent Dockers/Eagles games there has definitely been a pronounced usage of the corridor which cuts the wingers out a bit.

Still think they will end up scoring well though, it's just hard for them with the sheer volume they need to get every week.

Thanks for the insight mate.

 

[wogitalia]

Thanks for the insight mate.

Other thing worth noting is so far teams have shown very little strategy with the mark, most just manning and standing tall. I expect a lot more teams will line up inside to take away the corridor kick which would certainly force kicks towards the wings more. The Eagles/Dockers game where this was much more common than any other game had all of Gaff, Acres and Aish score pretty well. The wings against the Pies who are always a pretty solid defensive team and also protected the corridor a bit more gave up big scores to both McIntosh and Caddy on the wings for the Tigers. Wings in the Lions/Suns game also scored very well.

Going to be interesting to see just how much impact it actually has.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369035933639532547

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369043786454634500

 

[Ben's Beasts]

The two players I'm struggling with the most are Jordan Clark and Jye Caldwell.

Clark was excellent in the Cats game against Essendon but is clearly fringe best 22 so 240k is a lot to fork out for a guy with iffy JS.

Caldwell was impressive against the Cats and looks to have a good role as a mid but he is so awkwardly priced at 350k that you almost want to be picking him with the idea that he's a season long keeper which I'm just not sure he will be.

Trying to decide whether to pick one, pick both or start with neither and instead pick a premium defender and cheap rookie.

 

[Hondo]

Other thing worth noting is so far teams have shown very little strategy with the mark, most just manning and standing tall. I expect a lot more teams will line up inside to take away the corridor kick which would certainly force kicks towards the wings more. The Eagles/Dockers game where this was much more common than any other game had all of Gaff, Acres and Aish score pretty well. The wings against the Pies who are always a pretty solid defensive team and also protected the corridor a bit more gave up big scores to both McIntosh and Caddy on the wings for the Tigers. Wings in the Lions/Suns game also scored very well.

Going to be interesting to see just how much impact it actually has.

I reckon there is a real risk that us fantasy players over estimate the impact based off the few pre-season games we have been able to see.

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

The two players I'm struggling with the most are Jordan Clark and Jye Caldwell.

Clark was excellent in the Cats game against Essendon but is clearly fringe best 22 so 240k is a lot to fork out for a guy with iffy JS.

Caldwell was impressive against the Cats and looks to have a good role as a mid but he is so awkwardly priced at 350k that you almost want to be picking him with the idea that he's a season long keeper which I'm just not sure he will be.

Trying to decide whether to pick one, pick both or start with neither and instead pick a premium defender and cheap rookie.

As a Cats supporter, I'm not starting Clark. Duncan, Menegola and I Smith are all ahead for wing positions, and we already have a plethora of half backs, of which Atkins is now also playing that role. I can see him cementing himself in the side, I can't see him averaging 80 or more though..75 is probably best case scenario - which at the price is not really worth it. Agree with your concerns on Caldwell too, I'd be going prem/rookie over those two.

 

[PC]

The two players I'm struggling with the most are Jordan Clark and Jye Caldwell.

Clark was excellent in the Cats game against Essendon but is clearly fringe best 22 so 240k is a lot to fork out for a guy with iffy JS.

Caldwell was impressive against the Cats and looks to have a good role as a mid but he is so awkwardly priced at 350k that you almost want to be picking him with the idea that he's a season long keeper which I'm just not sure he will be.

Trying to decide whether to pick one, pick both or start with neither and instead pick a premium defender and cheap rookie.

Got both at the moment but Caldwell will be the first cut if I need coin. Crossing the fingers with Clark and hoping he did enough the other night to hold his place.

 

[Erek22]

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7158375/jason-johannisen-sweats-on-dogs-reprieve/?cs=9465
Norm Smith medallist Jason Johannisen has a fight on his hands to play in the Western Bulldogs' AFL season-opener after being dropped to the reserves.
The premiership defender was axed from the Bulldogs' final pre-season match against Melbourne on Monday.

But Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge has failed to guarantee a return to the team's best 22 for Johannisen when the club plays Collingwood at the MCG on March 19.
"'JJ' hasn't been out of the team since I've coached the club (starting in 2015) and we had a conversation about that," Beveridge told reporters.

"When he doesn't play so well we really hone in on what he can contribute because of his speed and his skills.
"We need a couple of things in his game to come to the fore and he'll earn his spot back at some point."
Beveridge said Johannisen would have been unlikely to face the Magpies at the MCG, but a shoulder injury to fellow defender Hayden Crozier means he could be offered a reprieve.
Crozier suffered a suspected AC joint injury in the 39-point victory over the Demons and is unlikely to be fit in 10 days time.
"I watched the (VFL) game and (Johannisen) had a reasonable performance ... but no guarantees yet," Beveridge said.
The Bulldogs are blessed with depth as they search for another premiership to add to the drought-breaking flag they won in 2016.
Joining Johannisen in the reserves was defender Taylor Duryea and No.1 draft pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
Star recruit Adam Treloar also ran around at the Whitten Oval, but the Bulldogs are carefully managing the former Collingwood midfielder after he experienced calf tightness during the pre-season.
Treloar's strong performance puts him firmly in contention to make his Bulldogs debut against his old club.

 

[Bermi]

I'm a bit behind on reading all the info here, not sure if it has been discussed? Doesn't sound good for underdone fitness players, but good for good endurance players.

https://twitter.com/JordsSupercoach

Interesting comments from Jack Riewoldt on AFL 360 - Said having less interchanges is like playing another quarter, and it will have a bigger impact than the man on the mark rule #supercoach

8:10 PM · Mar 9, 2021·Twitter Web App

 

[Erek22]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/d24048ee1d005dbc2d043eeaf83c14f5
(I generally prefer it when they don't name a player from their past team)

WHO IS YOUR BREAKOUT AFL PLAYER FOR 2021?

Dermott Brereton: “I don’t know if he’s a breakout player but Shai Bolton.”

Jonathan Brown: “Hunter Clark. He would have gained some good experience last year, gotten stronger over the summer and he looks like he has time and space. I like his progression.”

Nick Dal Santo: “Hunter Clark. He was really good last year but I think he has another level in him and will get more on-ball time.”

Ben Dixon: “I reckon Mitch McGovern. From all reports he’s had a pretty decent pre-season and I reckon this is the year that he can break out, I really do. Athletically, they reckon he’s one of the best. With Charlie Curnow out for a while with injury, McGovern could be a beauty.”

Jason Dunstall: “Harry McKay – he’s only averaged 12 games a year in the first four years. We keep hearing big things about him and he showed glimpses last year. If he can have a full season I think he can become the player I think a lot of us hoped he would become in the last few years.”

Brad Johnson: “Nakia Cockatoo from Brisbane. Change of scenery, healthy and he’s an absolute jet. Given a run he will be one to breakout.”

David King: “Jy Simpkin. More midfield opportunity and the extra pre-season under his belt. He’s gone from a young kid to a man, assumed more leadership presence in the group and going to be a centre bounce hit-to player more than not. And given they’ve moved Ziebell back it is time for this guy to shine.”

Jordan Lewis: “Luke Davies-Uniacke. Another year in the system will help him. New coach came in and he had some good experience last year. He will have more confidence this time around.”

Garry Lyon: “Sam Draper. They say that he’s tearing it to shreds at Essendon.”

Cameron Mooney: “Adam Cerra. He’s 21 and has already played nearly 60 games – they’ve pumped a lot of games into him – I reckon he could turn into something pretty special. With those games and that talent, this is where you explode.”

Mark Ricciuto: “Let’s go with Braeden Campbell. I’m hearing good things about the Academy prospect. I’d tip him to finish second to Matt Rowell (in the Rising Star).”

Nick Riewoldt: “Hunter Clark. He will get more time through the midfield. Some of the breakout moments occurred last year, I just think he will do it more consistently. And he’s on the radar now.”

 

[SuchIsLife]

Hey so does aynone know if we are continuing the 2-round price change from last year, or reverting back to the previous 3-round format?

 

[SuchIsLife]

The two players I'm struggling with the most are Jordan Clark and Jye Caldwell.

Clark was excellent in the Cats game against Essendon but is clearly fringe best 22 so 240k is a lot to fork out for a guy with iffy JS.

Caldwell was impressive against the Cats and looks to have a good role as a mid but he is so awkwardly priced at 350k that you almost want to be picking him with the idea that he's a season long keeper which I'm just not sure he will be.

Trying to decide whether to pick one, pick both or start with neither and instead pick a premium defender and cheap rookie.

Don't like either, there are enough rookies to sustain a GnR strategy

 

[Shannon]

Hey so does aynone know if we are continuing the 2-round price change from last year, or reverting back to the previous 3-round format?

3 rounds :-

In order for player values to change, a player must have played at least 3 games. Therefore you will see the first player price changes after the first 3 rounds of play and weekly thereafter.

 

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369497283218214916