Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion

[dlanod]

Are there any rookie priced mids at the Lions who may now be in line for more opportunity trickling down after the shuffling that will inevitably occur with Rayner out for the season?

Is it possible that Ely Smith completely bangs down the door here?

It's definitely possible, though I'm not sure how likely it is.

Rayner has been playing as a forward/mid rotation player, though pushing into the middle a bit more this year. Ely and Dev Robertson had been training more off a wing and through the middle, so a slightly different role. However they're our most obvious candidates for "next man up" if we don't want to bring in CEY. CEY did play the role a bit last year when various people were out, but was fairly ineffective when not in the middle.

 

[blue dreamer]

Seriously considering Cripps to Walsh after Thursdays game, especially the 2nd half and Cripps visit for scans as shown on 7 news Friday.

Think I have FOMO and will whichever way I jump on this one

 

[pizza safety]

I feel good that Bont scored well, even though it means almost nothing for an established premium.

But I had him in my side before and now he's gone from 7% to 15% ownership and will probably end up at over 20%. All of that makes him probably a worse pick than he was before, although I at least feel like the majority of those climbing aboard off one game are less likely to be challenging for top spot. I prefer Macrae to Bont but keep having trouble with his price versus Bont.

 

[Pieman17]

I feel good that Bont scored well, even though it means almost nothing for an established premium.

But I had him in my side before and now he's gone from 7% to 15% ownership and will probably end up at over 20%. All of that makes him probably a worse pick than he was before, although I at least feel like the majority of those climbing aboard off one game are less likely to be challenging for top spot. I prefer Macrae to Bont but keep having trouble with his price versus Bont.

Although it’s annoying (I speak as a owner pre pre season games too), Bont being at 20% doesn’t really make him a worse pick. Ownership only really comes into play when it’s towards 50% and it becomes a thing of betting against the player.

For example not picking a Cripps/Rowell/Williams who all have high ownership can be beneficial if they do not perform as around half your competition will have underperforming premos.

 

[Socrates2]

Anyone considering Dom Tyson@ $243,000 as a mid starter ? He scored 120 on the weekend playing for North Melbourne.

 

[Hondo]

I feel good that Bont scored well, even though it means almost nothing for an established premium.

But I had him in my side before and now he's gone from 7% to 15% ownership and will probably end up at over 20%. All of that makes him probably a worse pick than he was before, although I at least feel like the majority of those climbing aboard off one game are less likely to be challenging for top spot. I prefer Macrae to Bont but keep having trouble with his price versus Bont.

20% is still a POD. If he's above 40% that's a different story.

I think we overstate the downside of picking "popular" players. If he scores how you wanted him to he can't be a bad pick. Mostly, cookie cutter is perfectly OK IMO.

A problem with a high selected player is way easier to deal with than a problem with a POD. Nothing worse than your POD underperforming or getting injured forcing a trade that most of your competition can avoid. Similary, very bad when a popular pick you've punted against does well.

 

[Ironhawk]

13.6% ownership, interested to compare to post match numbers.

Now 11.1% for Petracca.

 

[pizza safety]

20% is still a POD. If he's above 40% that's a different story.

I think we overstate the downside of picking "popular" players. If he scores how you wanted him to he can't be a bad pick. Mostly, cookie cutter is perfectly OK IMO.

A problem with a high selected player is way easier to deal with than a problem with a POD. Nothing worse than your POD underperforming or getting injured forcing a trade that most of your competition can avoid. Similary, very bad when a popular pick you've punted against does well.

I would say under 20% is pod and under 10% is a big pod. I think over 20% is a somewhat popular pick. I agree with you for the most part and I don't pick pods for the sake of it, but nailing a pod can be pivotal in differentiating yourself from others. I was picking Bont on his own merit but the small number of teams he was in was an added bonus. My point was just that last nights game is a negative rather than a positive for my side as 1 game means nothing for someone like Bont. I've always planned to start Macrae over him if I could afford Macrae, depending on structure, so nothing has actually changed for me.

It's not something you can intentionally avoid but if all your players are in over 20% of teams it is unlikely a good sign, the popular opinion just can't be that good at picking players because far too many people would be capable of being a top 5k SC player.

The other rule I apply is if I cannot at all separate two players I go for the POD. I'd rather take a risk to finish higher or lower from a pick than play it safe.

 

[pizza safety]

@Bomber18

Taranto has just slid into my side.....

 

[SuchIsLife]

Any thoughts on Bont vs Macrae?

Personally can't see Bont playing extensive minutes up forward with Naughton + Bruce + one of English/Martin resting up there. Makes no sense to play 4 talls at the same time. But at the same time, the 300% inside midfield time will need to be split between Bont/Macrae/Libba/Dunkley/Treloar (even if Smith is on a wing permanantly).

Don't see Macrae suffering too much even if he does have to play minutes on a wing at times, but it's definitely not ideal either.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Any thoughts on Bont vs Macrae?

Personally can't see Bont playing extensive minutes up forward with Naughton + Bruce + one of English/Martin resting up there. Makes no sense to play 4 talls at the same time. But at the same time, the 300% inside midfield time will need to be split between Bont/Macrae/Libba/Dunkley/Treloar (even if Smith is on a wing permanantly).

Don't see Macrae suffering too much even if he does have to play minutes on a wing at times, but it's definitely not ideal either.

As someone who owned Bont first then Macrae later on last season, I would suggest doing it the other way around this season.

History may not repeat itself but being a Bont owner without Macrae for that first part of the season was a truly horrific experience.

So Macrae now, Bont later.

 

[SuchIsLife]

As someone who owned Bont first then Macrae later on last season, I would suggest doing it the other way around this season.

History may not repeat itself but being a Bont owner without Macrae for that first part of the season was a truly horrific experience.

So Macrae now, Bont later.

That is also my preference at the moment. Do you have any idea on why Bont played so much better in the latter half of last season?

 

[Ben's Beasts]

That is also my preference at the moment. Do you have any idea on why Bont played so much better in the latter half of last season?

I didn't notice a role change or anything like that. He just came home with a wet sail.

 

[pizza safety]

As someone who owned Bont first then Macrae later on last season, I would suggest doing it the other way around this season.

History may not repeat itself but being a Bont owner without Macrae for that first part of the season was a truly horrific experience.

So Macrae now, Bont later.

I think Macrae is a slow starter as well though, he usually isn't electric in the first 5 rounds then starts to transform into an absolute pig.

That aside, I also prefer Macrae, has the more consistent scoring history, although I fear he is more likely to play more time away from the centre square than Bont, the dogs are stocked with tall forwards now and that Keeps the Bont from there, whereas Macrae can be played on a wing.

I'm starting one or the other, Macrae if I can afford him and Bont if not.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

I think Macrae is a slow starter as well though, he usually isn't electric in the first 5 rounds then starts to transform into an absolute pig.

That aside, I also prefer Macrae, has the more consistent scoring history, although I fear he is more likely to play more time away from the centre square than Bont, the dogs are stocked with tall forwards now and that Keeps the Bont from there, whereas Macrae can be played on a wing.

Yeah good point about the slow start for Macrae.

Still prefer him as a starting pick over Bont if pressed to pick one.

 

[pizza safety]

Not sure if Heppell is worth selecting as a half-back, wanted to see a bit more than what he showed in that game. I was keen to still keep the faith but have flipped today.

I reckon it's possible it might have just been a down game and he can bounce back, but at that price I want to be more confident that he can average mid 80's.

He has such a reliable scoring history that it looks like a no-brainer pick on the surface, but having not played that role after his first two years, it's not easy to know if he can do it exceptionally well, and we don't know if he's going to be permanently hampered by his foot going forward/what permanent impact, if any, it's had on him

 

[inwhiterooms]

I'm on Macrae over Bont. Endurance machines like him will be loving the return to full length quarters.

Like @Ben's Beasts I've got painful memories of being without Macrae for most of last season.

Disclaimer – I also went the entire season without Lachie Neale, so maybe ignore everything I say.

 

[jaca]

To Rowell or not? He’ll be an M5, so it’s there with Cripps M4 or jump to Zerrett M4 and do something different.

 

[BarginHunter]

Dont know which to go with if i do choose one of the Doggies, so heres my list of pros and cons that i can think of, feel free to help me pick?

Bont- Pros- Big Ceiling, heard hes going to like the rule change, Machine and should get lots of games, can be Sc friendly every now and then
Cons- Drops off in parts of the season, Gets tagged alot, The Treloar effect, can stay forward for a while

Macrae-Pros, high ceiling, pretty consistent over the years, machine, lots of games, very Sc friendly
Cons- The Treloar effect, opponents could choose this year to shut him down?

Hmmm which one of these is worth more than Neale?

 

[Shannon]

Dont know which to go with if i do choose one of the Doggies, so heres my list of pros and cons that i can think of, feel free to help me pick?

Bont- Pros- Big Ceiling, heard hes going to like the rule change, Machine and should get lots of games, can be Sc friendly every now and then
Cons- Drops off in parts of the season, Gets tagged alot, The Treloar effect, can stay forward for a while

Macrae-Pros, high ceiling, pretty consistent over the years, machine, lots of games, very Sc friendly
Cons- The Treloar effect, opponents could choose this year to shut him down?

Hmmm which one of these is worth more than Neale?

Macrae last year across the league was ranked :-

2nd for disposals
3rd for uncontested possessions
8th for inside ’50s

3rd consecutive season of averaging over 120 - 12 x 100's (6 over 130 & 3 over 160)

His only score below 90 came in the final round of 2020 - 85 v Freo.

When Hunter was out suspended last season, Macrae was the one who played more outside (he was the most affacted) & he averaged 16 points less when Hunter was out.

Here are their respective career averages :-