Hey guys, interested in views on Phillips vs Caldwell vs Cameron.
- Phillips: Role but to me is the least impressive 'actual' player of these guys. 400k has to be a keeper really
- Caldwell: Hasn't been on my radar but I thought he looked like an 'actual' bloody good player. Can only improve. Could he av same as Phillips for 50k less? (SC ratio is positive)
- Cameron: I can't get this one out of my head. Geelongs draw to the bye looks delicious for a lead up fwd (as well as the new rules) and a 10 goal thrashing of the Crows rd 1 is on the cards
Low risk, lowest reward imo: Phillips > Caldwell > Cameron
High risk, highest reward imo: Cameron > Caldwell > Phillips
thoughts?
I think Phillips has the highest upside. Best role, best durability, least competition for the role. His negative is disposal and it's a big one but he's capable of 95+ in DT and can go 1:1 if he's a bit more contested, which he was a lot more contested through the preseason. Think he can go 95+, probably needs to be 90+ to be a keeper.
Caldwell is utterly unproven and his disposal has been an issue prior to the o***eason (he looked great on the weekend and might be a better inside than outside guy), role is uncertain but looked good but will they go with Shiel, McGrath, Parish, Langford and obviously Merrett when there are points on the line or stick with Caldwell? Caldwell for mine could average as high as 100 or as low as 70 depending on his role. Realistically I think at 90+ he works as a pick for sure, I'm personally expecting a drop to 95 for the F4-6 this year so even 85+ could be plausible if that happened.
Cameron I think is actually the lowest upside of the group. Playing as the main forward target on an elite team he has maxed out at 93. Now he's at best option 1b for a strong side and most likely option 2. It generally takes a while for a forward to learn a new system, especially when comparing teams like GWS and Geelong who play very differently.
Tom Lynch is probably the most comparable and his average has actually dropped the two seasons since joining a much better side. Josh Bruce isn't the same calibre of player but he also dropped a pretty significant amount last year moving to a better side. Buddy probably the exception but he went from being a share option in a team phasing him out to the main option and to a side that was at least as strong and even then he couldn't get near where he was as the main option in the 3 years prior.
Throw in the hamstring issues, his durability record and non-existent pre-season and to me Cameron is an incredibly speculative pick. Do I think it's possible that it works? Absolutely. But if you put a gun to my head I think he does something similar to Lynch in his first year at Richmond as someone Lynch has suckered in many times, I don't love it.
If I told you Cameron was leading the coleman by 10 goals come round 11 what would you assume he's averaging?
Probably high 80s to low 90s, he won a Coleman and averaged 93. Just think Geelong flick it around too much and Hawkins eats too much of the pie though.
What’s the gripe with Warner? Very impressive game on the weekend I thought. Comfortably lined up at F6 for mine.
Job security and role concerns would be fair gripes. He's definitely in the last couple picked if named and his role was, imo, unrealistic on the weekend. Can't see him getting genuine midfield minutes or playing wing when he's not. Imagine he ends up in a similar role to last year.
I really like him though and I'm mostly playing devils advocate with that, think he can do well.
Toby Greene and Caldwell v Dunkley and Dow??
2nd for mine. One is going to be a keeper and the other should make cash. Greene's durability is awful and Caldwell is utterly unproven. That's not to say I don't like them and if that's the only real risks you're taking, go for it but the 2nd option is definitely safer.