Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Awesome work...

On last year's rucks, do you have stoppage numbers for those rounds as well? Would be interesting to see if they also dropped or stayed the same? Do you also happen to have the DT stats for that period, be interesting to see if it's more SC scoring or just those players losing form as Gawn notably didn't decline in that period in either format.

Edit: Just expanding on this and the discussion over in the ruck thread, what do the mark numbers look like across the same period

This is a follow up question from #10,198.
The numbers below refer to the SC scoring averages of: Gawn, Grundy, Goldy, NicNat, O'Brien, English combined. The average number of stoppages in their games. The competition average stoppages. Their individual Marks averages. The competition games average marks.

Firstly on the DT part of the question. Never been a DT man, just SC.

6 Rucks ave stoppages - competition ave stoppages - 6 Rucks ave marks (each) - Games total ave marks

Rounds 1-4 = 23/119.8 - 62.0 - 61.4 - 3.17 - 141.7
Rounds 5-8 = 24/119.1 - 54.9 - 57.1 - 3.63 - 140.1
Rounds 9-12 = 21/111.5 - 61.9 - 60.3 - 2.52 - 138.1
Rounds 13-16 = 18/103.2 - 60.1 - 58.1 - 2.78 - 142.3

 

[Erek22]

Hello Rowsus,

Were those "normal" pre-competition scores from the defenders in general? It might be a false impression but they felt higher than previous years.

 

[The Saltshaker]

Hi Mudflap.
Let's look at the numbers, keeping in mind, some of the numbers below are small sample pools (ie. the pre-season numbers.
Let's do them in chronological order.

The following are averages per game (CB = centre bounces):
2019 season proper: CB 27.16, Stoppages 49.88, Total 77.04
2020 pre-season: CB 26.94, Stoppages 45.89, Total 72.83
2020 season proper: CB 21.51, Stoppages 37.67, Total 59.18 - Let's scale that up 25% for shorter quarters
2020 season proper: CB 26.89, Stoppages 47.09, Total 73.98
2021 pre-season: CB 29.78, Stoppages 32.22, Total 62.00

As I said, it's a small sample, but I can understand your concern! In Round figures, Goals up by 3, but stoppages down by 16!!!
Net result, 13 less Ruck contests.
Will that trend continue? My guess is yes, but not to that full extent.
If a Ruck like Gawn is getting 70-75% of his SC score at, and around stoppages and CB's, and those contests drop by say 15%, it's reasonable to say that Gawn's scoring, all things being equal, will drop by 15% of 72% = 11%. The flip side is, they will now pick up slightly more scores "around the ground" to compenate for that, so you might see a net effect of say a 8% or 9% drop, if this continues to be a thing.

I have feeling/suspicion about last seasons Ruck scoring. No matter how you stack it up, it is still open to human interpretation, and therefore human error. My suspicion is something along the lines of, CD reviewed the ratings given early in the season, and found those calling/giving interpretations in Ruck contests were being too generous. CD then tightened it up a little. As I say, human interpretation of of something will always be open to some form of error.

Lets' look at: Gawn, Grundy, Goldy, ROB, English and NicNat in 4 Round blocks from last season:
Rounds 1-4 = 23/119.8
Rounds 5-8 = 24/119.1
Rounds 9-12 = 21/111.5
Rounds 13-16 = 18/103.2
That's quite a difference, and I'm not sure it is all attributal to fatique and niggles.

It feels wrong this year bud, Pies playing 3 talls, Jackson took 12 off Gawn -

Theres just not enough contests. Witts n Draper, maybe Hunter or Meek (who played a 100 game for mine.

 

[The Saltshaker]

RUCK CONTESTS ATTENDED​

M.Pittonet 77​

O.McInerney 66​

J.Witts 64​

P.Hunter 62​

L.Meek 55​

M.Gawn 53​

T.Hickey 52​

J.Ceglar 51​

K.Briggs 50​

B.Grundy 50​

 

[The Saltshaker]

HITOUTS TO ADVANTAGE​

J.Witts 15​

B.Grundy 13​

M.Gawn 11​

J.Ceglar 10​

O.McInerney 10​

M.Pittonet 10​

K.Briggs 9​

S.Draper 9​

P.Hunter 9​

S.McKernan 8​

 

[donnybuang]

It's not just the ruck contests. Gawn's possessions were down by about 5 or 6 on his last 3 seasons average. Just so hard to judge off one pre-season game though.

 

[The Saltshaker]

He will still go well but im backing Grundy Draper

 

[The Saltshaker]

i had witts and draper but i went up to Grundy, now theres no room to move pretty much, im on $2800 which is way too tight but cant chop anyone???

 

[The Saltshaker]

Hi Mudflap.
Let's look at the numbers, keeping in mind, some of the numbers below are small sample pools (ie. the pre-season numbers.
Let's do them in chronological order.

The following are averages per game (CB = centre bounces):
2019 season proper: CB 27.16, Stoppages 49.88, Total 77.04
2020 pre-season: CB 26.94, Stoppages 45.89, Total 72.83
2020 season proper: CB 21.51, Stoppages 37.67, Total 59.18 - Let's scale that up 25% for shorter quarters
2020 season proper: CB 26.89, Stoppages 47.09, Total 73.98
2021 pre-season: CB 29.78, Stoppages 32.22, Total 62.00

As I said, it's a small sample, but I can understand your concern! In Round figures, Goals up by 3, but stoppages down by 16!!!
Net result, 13 less Ruck contests.
Will that trend continue? My guess is yes, but not to that full extent.
If a Ruck like Gawn is getting 70-75% of his SC score at, and around stoppages and CB's, and those contests drop by say 15%, it's reasonable to say that Gawn's scoring, all things being equal, will drop by 15% of 72% = 11%. The flip side is, they will now pick up slightly more scores "around the ground" to compensate for that, so you might see a net effect of say a 8% or 9% drop, if this continues to be a thing.

I have feeling/suspicion about last seasons Ruck scoring. No matter how you stack it up, it is still open to human interpretation, and therefore human error. My suspicion is something along the lines of, CD reviewed the ratings given early in the season, and found those calling/giving interpretations in Ruck contests were being too generous. CD then tightened it up a little. As I say, human interpretation of of something will always be open to some form of error.

Lets' look at: Gawn, Grundy, Goldy, ROB, English and NicNat in 4 Round blocks from last season:
Rounds 1-4 = 23/119.8
Rounds 5-8 = 24/119.1
Rounds 9-12 = 21/111.5
Rounds 13-16 = 18/103.2
That's quite a difference, and I'm not sure it is all attributal to fatique and niggles.

Bloody excellent post Rowsus - im playing Moneyball with my rucks on the strength of these stats 💯👍

 

[Rowsus]

Hello Rowsus,

Were those "normal" pre-competition scores from the defenders in general? It might be a false impression but they felt higher than previous years.

Hello Erek22,
there were definitely some higher Def scores than normal. Quite a few good judges are predicting that Defs will be the biggest beneficiary of the new rules. Those that take kick outs, those willing to take the game on, and kick long, are likely to see an opportunity to score well/better this season.
I have a theory with things like this. Eventually most Coaches at AFL level will adapt, and find a way to negate this new "advantage" the Defs have. It will only take one or two Coaches to do it, and the others will follow suit. If i'm right, the better, more suited Defs might score better than expected early on in the season, but as the adaption evolves, their scoring will likely drift back towards more expected levels.

 

[Rowsus]

It feels wrong this year bud, Pies playing 3 talls, Jackson took 12 off Gawn -

Theres just not enough contests. Witts n Draper, maybe Hunter or Meek (who played a 100 game for mine.

Keep in mind, with Jackson taking 12 off Gawn, that some Clubs treated it as a full dress rehearsal, where as other Clubs used it as a last chance to try some things, and learn more about their options.

 

[The Saltshaker]

Yeah of course the great man, Swanny said, "the premo footballers cruise pre season, its the guys busting a nut that have something to prove...."

How you been genius @Rowsus?

I swear to god youre SC royalty in my opinion, you may have been born a filthy foreigner but the time and depth, and the dimension you take ****, answer thoughtfully and with excellent degree of approaching and presenting the data - check out tony heller realclimatescience you guys are brothers i swear...

you need your own Rowsus podcast, everyone else are just pretenders still the best in the game

 

[Rowsus]

Yeah of course the great man, Swanny said, "the premo footballers cruise pre season, its the guys busting a nut that have something to prove...."

How you been genius @Rowsus?

I swear to god youre SC royalty in my opinion, you may have been born a filthy foreigner but the time and depth, and the dimension you take ****, answer thoughtfully and with excellent degree of approaching and presenting the data - check out tony heller realclimatescience you guys are brothers i swear...

you need your own Rowsus podcast, everyone else are just pretenders still the best in the game

Thanks for the kind words, Salty.
I've actually only lived in Denmark 11 years. I'm a Melbourne boy, from the Beaumaris/Mentone area. I've always been interested in numbers and stats, so I was naturally drawn to SC analysis. I don't have as much time to dig as deep as I used to, or when this thread started. I was unemployed, and had nothing better to do, than dig deep into my answers here. These days the the deep digging is reserved for questions that pique my interest.

 

[The Saltshaker]

Thanks for the kind words, Salty.
I've actually only lived in Denmark 11 years. I'm a Melbourne boy, from the Beaumaris/Mentone area. I've always been interested in numbers and stats, so I was naturally drawn to SC analysis. I don't have as much time to dig as deep as used to, as when this thread started, I was unemployed, and had nothing better to do, than dig deep into my answers here. These days the the deep digging is reserved for questions that pique my interest.

No no theres gold in this thread, you should do a podcast im sure with the power of edit, you could get one of the biggest podcasts.

 

[wogitalia]

Rowsus my good man, I know we discussed the big breakout premium guys who improve +20 points and the pretty consistent decline in the following season.

Was wondering if that study ever got extended to see how they bounce back in the season next season to see if it was generally a declining consolidation becoming a launching pad or that those seasons tended to be anomalies and the return towards previous scoring was the more accurate outcome.

Love your work as always

 

[jel]

Hi Rowsus,
I've been scribbling some numbers on the back of the coaster and I'm wondering if I have things wrong.

12 starting premos
Cash cows are a mix of rookies & midpricers.
10 upgrades avg $500K = ~ $5mil to get to full premo
15 cash cows value $2.5mil so need to generate an extra $2.5m to pay for the premos

Assume 3 down / 2 up for upgrading rookies to premos means selling 15 rookies to get the 10 premos + 5 replacement rookies(~$600k).
So the 15 rookies being sold need to generate $2.5mil + $600k in value ie ~$210k each (over their starting price) to get us to a full premo side.

This seems more that the conventional thinking of rookies needing to generate $150k.
Have I made some incorrect assumptions, or is it as bad as it looks?

 

[Herbie66]

Hi Rowsus,
I've been scribbling some numbers on the back of the coaster and I'm wondering if I have things wrong.

12 starting premos
Cash cows are a mix of rookies & midpricers.
10 upgrades avg $500K = ~ $5mil to get to full premo
15 cash cows value $2.5mil so need to generate an extra $2.5m to pay for the premos

Assume 3 down / 2 up for upgrading rookies to premos means selling 15 rookies to get the 10 premos + 5 replacement rookies(~$600k).
So the 15 rookies being sold need to generate $2.5mil + $600k in value ie ~$210k each (over their starting price) to get us to a full premo side.

This seems more that the conventional thinking of rookies needing to generate $150k.
Have I made some incorrect assumptions, or is it as bad as it looks?

I am confused.

If you have 12 starting premiums , doesn't that mean you have 18 cash cows (10 onfield + 8 bench) ?

Unless you are starting 3 deliberate donuts.

Ideally you want 8 bench donuts that in a perfect world make $ 150k each = $ 1.2 million.

4 secondary bench rookie downgrades that make $ 150k each = $ 600,000.00

So basically $ 1.8 million to fund your 10 onfield upgrades (mix of starting mid pricers + rookies).

Obviously the higher they rise in value the more (better) upgrade options you will have available.

The problem is when 2-4 of your starting bench rookies generate little $$$ as they dissappears after a few games.

 

[jel]

Hi Rowsus,
I've been scribbling some numbers on the back of the coaster and I'm wondering if I have things wrong.

12 starting premos
Cash cows are a mix of rookies & midpricers.
10 upgrades avg $500K = ~ $5mil to get to full premo
15 cash cows value $2.5mil so need to generate an extra $2.5m to pay for the premos

Assume 3 down / 2 up for upgrading rookies to premos means selling 15 rookies to get the 10 premos + 5 replacement rookies(~$600k).
So the 15 rookies being sold need to generate $2.5mil + $600k in value ie ~$210k each (over their starting price) to get us to a full premo side.

This seems more that the conventional thinking of rookies needing to generate $150k.
Have I made some incorrect assumptions, or is it as bad as it looks?

On reflection, 15 trades ( ie rookies) is too ambitious.
Using 20 trades (ie 2 down / 1 up) is achievable with the $150K / rookie price rise

 

[jel]

I am confused.

If you have 12 starting premiums , doesn't that mean you have 18 cash cows (10 onfield + 8 bench) ?

Unless you are starting 3 deliberate donuts.

Ideally you want 8 bench donuts that in a perfect world make $ 150k each = $ 1.2 million.

4 secondary bench rookie downgrades that make $ 150k each = $ 600,000.00

So basically $ 1.8 million to fund your 10 onfield upgrades (mix of starting mid pricers + rookies).

Obviously the higher they rise in value the more (better) upgrade options you will have available.

The problem is when 2-4 of your starting bench rookies generate little $$$ as they dissappears after a few games.

I was looking at using 15 trades ( so only 15 of the 18 cash cows)
This is clearly not viable and a more sensible 20 trades (a mix of the original 18 + downgrades) is what's required.

 

[wogitalia]

The positive in the scenario is the teams with 12 premiums should be starting most, if not all, of the very expensive guys, if they hold their value you're going to be doing very well with them and if you've got them it allows a lot more value targeting, traditionally the back and forward upgrades will cost less than 500k if you don't need to chase Lloyd and Danger types.