Analysis 2021 Updating Some Old Rowsus Threads

[GrainFedBeef]

Conclusion
I still think this is a thing to be aware of. It's so easy to say "Yeah, but this player will beat it!". 90% don't, and 70% of them experience a notable drop.
The faster they climbed, the higher they got, the worse they fared. I think if you are going to try and take a player to beat this curse, I think it needs to be someone who jumped low 20's, and finished below 110, preferably, below 105.

Here are the "cursed" players for 2021.
Jack Steele 122.5 / +27.5
Jeremy Howe 120.5 / +41.0
Christian Petracca 117.5 / +36.3
Sam Menegola 107.8 / +26.4
Hugh Greenwood 105.6 / +20.3
Tom Liberatore 106.1 / +23.7
Touk Miller 105.9 / +21.1
Cameron Guthrie 103.2 / +27.0
Timothy English 102.6 / +20.0
Brayden Maynard 102.4 / +22,4
Mitchell Hinge 102.0 / +37.5

I currently have 2 of these 11 in my team!

This is why Neale has done so, never made the 20point jump, just slowly increased each year staying under the radar! Maybe the Charlie will see extra attention.

Who kicks on, maybe Maynard given smaller defenders expected to do well and in the 102-108 range, not for me though (had him last year). Howe, didn't realise he is 30, that and the 41pt jump is concerning, at least he is priced lower at 95. Interceptors were an area logically I thought would fall away this year, his preseason game on limited time was impressive.

Does give some warning to Petrock and Steele to wait and see.

Amazing work as always Rowan, I commit this info to the data bank every time.

 

[Blaze]

Great stuff - Danger will join some elite company if he manages a 110+ year in his 30s - he is the guy i am most unsure of this year. I only have him as he isn't one I'm willing to back against. Might need to rethink this though

 

[freowho]

Great stuff - Danger will join some elite company if he manages a 110+ year in his 30s - he is the guy i am most unsure of this year. I only have him as he isn't one I'm willing to back against. Might need to rethink this though

I think he gets a good start and then maybe gets rested. Or gets rested if games are done and dusted. Geelong have talked a lot about managing their players better this year. I agree he's a hard one to judge.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

I wish I hadn't seen this... Now I am second guessing Steele

 

[Rowsus]

I've spotted a couple of errors in the tables.
I'll fix them in 6 or 7 hours, when I am home.

 

[wogitalia]

I'm going to say it...

I didn't need to see this before round 1

Now I'm looking and Gawn seems like he's perched on the edge of the cliff. Neale is wading towards the waterfall on the same cliff and Dangerfield is already suspended in mid air waiting for time to begin again! Those were the safe picks in my mind.

Excellent work as always mate!

 

[Rowsus]

I've spotted a couple of errors in the tables.
I'll fix them in 6 or 7 hours, when I am home.

Errors fixed.

 

[Rowsus]

I'm going to say it...

I didn't need to see this before round 1

Now I'm looking and Gawn seems like he's perched on the edge of the cliff. Neale is wading towards the waterfall on the same cliff and Dangerfield is already suspended in mid air waiting for time to begin again! Those were the safe picks in my mind.

Excellent work as always mate!

Gawn playing his 29yo season has some history on his side. I've always said the Ruck battle is like a game within a game, when it comes to SC, and they pretty much should be treated differently to every other player. Goldy went 112, 112 at 30yo & 31yo. Cox went 122, 112 at 29yo & 30yo.
Neale about to play his 27yo season is right in the 120+ "fat zone", no problem there!
Danger coming into his 30yo season might be everyone's biggest concern, but the likes of Ablett (116), Pavlich (111), Priddis (113), Tuck (115) and West (111) did ok in their 30yo season, and Pendles just posted a 110 at 32, so it's not hopeless, but the cliff would seem to be looming for Danger!

 

[wogitalia]

Gawn playing his 29yo season has some history on his side. I've always said the Ruck battle is like a game within a game, when it comes to SC, and they pretty much should be treated differently to every other player. Gold went 112, 112 at 30yo & 31yo. Cox went 122, 112 at 29yo & 30yo.
Neale about to play his 27yo season is right in the 120+ "fat zone", no problem there!
Danger coming into his 30yo season might be everyone's biggest concern, but the likes of Ablett (116), Pavlich (111), Priddis (113), Tuck (115) and West (111) did ok in their 30yo season, and Pendles just posted a 110 at 32, so it's not hopeless, but the cliff would seem to be looming for Danger!

Speaking of cli***, way to talk me a step back at least

 

[Santoz]

Imagine Joel Bowden's scores in this day and age.

 

[Bermi]

You got me rethinking Rowsus, mainly with Steele.

I reluctantly have Dangerfield in my team, because I expect him to finish as one of the top Fwds, Geelong has a good start to the season which might result in some very high scores.
But, as mentioned, I think Dangerfield may be rested and I fear he is at the age where he may get more soft tissue injuries. I label him as a high risk/high reward player.

Howe only played 4 games last year and I think his high 4 game average would have lowered if he played a lot more games.

I'm not sure how many games a player needs in a season to determine a fair season's average, I'll leave that up to a Statitician .

 

[Rowsus]

You got me rethinking Rowsus, mainly with Steele.

I reluctantly have Dangerfield in my team, because I expect him to finish as one of the top Fwds, Geelong has a good start to the season which might result in some very high scores.
But, as mentioned, I think Dangerfield may be rested and I fear he is at the age where he may get more soft tissue injuries. I label him as a high risk/high reward player.

Howe only played 4 games last year and I think his high 4 game average would have lowered if he played a lot more games.

I'm not sure how many games a player needs in a season to determine a fair season's average, I'll leave that up to a Statitician .

Howe is not the only low count player in the list. McKenzie had a 1 game 110 season to sneak in there too. There are a few other low game counts amongst the list as well.
I thought about making it a PIT60 list of 105, or even 110, but decided to keep it "clean".
Howe is an interesting one. A few people keen on him, but he's pretty much priced to his best near complete season ever, and he's getting older. He might be a 20/100+ player this season, but I don't think I'll ever risk having him.

 

[wogitalia]

Howe is not the only low count player in the list. McKenzie had a 1 game 110 season to sneak in there too. There are a few other low game counts amongst the list as well.
I thought about making it a PIT60 list of 105, or even 110, but decided to keep it "clean".
Howe is an interesting one. A few people keen on him, but he's pretty much priced to his best near complete season ever, and he's getting older. He might be a 20/100+ player this season, but I don't think I'll ever risk having him.

Howe's best seasons always include carrying an injury, he's a 105 guy when he's fit and flying but he's never been able to sustain it, either he's underdone (this year) or gets injured (several other years).

I love him as a player but I'm not sold he's worth the risk. I'd say the Docherty narrative is stronger at a lower price.