Discussion 2021: Round 1: Teams & In Game Discussion

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Collingwood
#88
That’s a $530k premium. Should be enough in the forwards and def. Likely not enough in the mids. And if you have only one of those $400k guys then Murray and him have allowed one upgrade. What about the other 8?

I’m not saying don’t pick Murray because of this of course. Just saying that him making $150k is borderline to claim a “win” relative to Clark averaging 77. It prob means he’s on your bench all year.
Yes but I also only have 1 Murray
 
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Sydney
#91
I don't directly compare Stepping Stones with Rookies. Given their JS, and generally better scoring than all bar the top 3 or 4 Rookies, I generally consider, if they can give me a safe on field option, score decent points compared to most Rookies, and make $100k, they have fulfilled their task.
As I said though, everyone has different opinions and expectations.
Clark's best attribute is a proven ability to put up a big score, plenty of 80+ in that first season and the monster preseason game. Very capable of a price spike even if his average does end up well below what's needed.

I still don't love him as a pick though, I really rate him as a player but it's clear Scott has some serious issues with him because he's played a lot of very limited players instead of him over the past 2 years and the truth is that at his positions that he has shown ability in they're quite strong. Stewart is a stud but I would argue the rest of their back flanks are the limited guys but Tuohy, Higgins, Smith, Duncan and Menegola is a pretty serious group or wingers he has to beat out.

Clark's the textbook all or nothing, he's going to either be averaging 85 or not playing in round 4 because he's going to have to win his spot every week early in the season. Definitely capable of it but at that price I don't really like that risk factor.

But he gets to $350k which is to me more important than what he started at and what the delta is.
it takes most base priced rookies weeks and weeks to even get to $280k let alone $350k.
If Murray averages 50 he will struggle up to $250k by R9 and then what. He’s made the magical $150k but it’s a bit low to be part of an easy up and down trade.
I think at times there is too much emphasis on what they make and not enough on where they get to. It can lead to over valuing the base price rooks relative to the higher priced ones.
Disagree entirely with this theory. This would only be a good point if you lost the cash for not spending it but that's not the case. Otherwise you're better off every single time taking the 150k from Murray and just keeping the other 140k in the bank to bank to have 390k for the next player instead of 350k and if you did spend that 140k fairly you'd have more points on the field playing Murray than Clark to boot so there's just no case for Clark in this scenario outside of "no one else exists" which seems at least unlikely. Basically your theory is to put an extra 140k at risk for a reduced return.

Clark is a cash cow, plain and simple and his peers are the rookies, I'd question why anyone would be giving up cash generation and points on the field to pick him if they don't think he's going to at least match the rookies. To be fair I can totally buy a keeper narrative on Clark, I rate him that highly, and that would change the reason for picking him but I do think it's a very long shot, at his price he probably only needs 93+ though.
 
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Sydney
#94
I guess everyone reads things differently...

I see a puff piece that confirms he missed two months of the preseason and has literally no empirical evidence to support his feelings that he's fit this year. If he'd said he'd run personal bests despite it, yeah, I'm buying but that's the equivalent of someone saying "yeah I feel like it was a cold January" when there is empirical evidence available to confirm it one way or the other, you don't use feelings when you know the actual answer with facts unless the facts don't support your feelings...

Yeah, I'm hunting justification for why he's not in my side again after getting torched for a couple of years :LOL: but seriously, that's genuinely how I read an article like that, I'm a skeptic at heart and to me the things that people don't say often say a lot more than what they do.
 
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#95
I'd like him, he averaged 107.5 in the games he had 2 or less tackles in 2020. The games he had 3 or more he went at 116.8. Hopefully the shoulder would stand up for his tackling game.
He's a textbook wait and see for me. As someone who has had minor shoulder surgery before that puts you out for 6 weeks they're surprisingly hurtful to conditioning because as much as "you can still use your legs" you really can't.

His is a lot more severe than what I had done and I couldn't run or do rigourous exercise for the best part of 4 weeks and you lose a lot of strength in the process.

Throw in the rate of recurrence and that's he clearly rushing back underdone and it's a perfect storm of things I don't want in a premium pick.

He's right up there on my upgrade target list though.
 
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West Coast
#97
I guess everyone reads things differently...

I see a puff piece that confirms he missed two months of the preseason and has literally no empirical evidence to support his feelings that he's fit this year. If he'd said he'd run personal bests despite it, yeah, I'm buying but that's the equivalent of someone saying "yeah I feel like it was a cold January" when there is empirical evidence available to confirm it one way or the other, you don't use feelings when you know the actual answer with facts unless the facts don't support your feelings...

Yeah, I'm hunting justification for why he's not in my side again after getting torched for a couple of years :LOL: but seriously, that's genuinely how I read an article like that, I'm a skeptic at heart and to me the things that people don't say often say a lot more than what they do.
That's exactly what I read into it, purely a puff piece - I am happy to wait & see how he performs in the early rounds.
 
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