Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion

[Athomas]

Dow named on ball......
hmmm
The fact that he was average in the trail games and still gets a start has me thinking his role is secure.?

Any Carlton Supporters, will he be given time to develop into the role.?

I wouldn't read too much into being named on-ball, especially as he could well be on the bench when teams are finalised tonight, instead of Curnow.

He will get the 4th highest amount of CBA's tonight (behind Cripps, Walsh, Curnow)
Williams will replace his role next week, but Dow should still remain in the Round 2 side, unless Martin is back as well and/or LOB/Fogarty impress tonight.

I don't think him having a great role means that much, when a key part of it is replacing Williams tonight.

I won't be picking him... I can live with a score of 80 tonight, knowing his JS/role/scoring potential are all shaky from Round 2 onwards.

 

[jaca]

@Chumpion

After being fairly confident a few weeks ago that Ziebell would be my F1 , I now find him at F4 behind Dunkley , Dusty & Zorko.

Looks like the rookies are falling in the forward line but hoping the better JS of Ziebell & Daniher result in better scores.

I am considering taking Ziebell out...

 

[Herbie66]

I am considering taking Ziebell out...

It's a funny situation.

On one hand their price , potential and JS is a bonus on the other hand they could be seen as a annoying price.

Seems to be plenty of forward rookies available so I guess you then have to weigh Ziebell etc up against other lines.

Forward rookies look strong

Ruck rookies strong.

Mid rookies questionable.

Even have defender rookies (albeit more expensive)

Just need to balance it all out.

I guess the big unknown with Ziebell is he is playing a completely different position for the first time in his career.

 

[Chumpion]

@Chumpion

After being fairly confident a few weeks ago that Ziebell would be my F1 , I now find him at F4 behind Dunkley , Dusty & Zorko.

Looks like the rookies are falling in the forward line but hoping the better JS of Ziebell & Daniher result in better scores.

I feel you! I've gone Ziebell F1 to aving him at F3 behind Danger and Dunkley.

Shows the upside of staying flexible.. but also having plans for each different structure so there is an easy starting point if you need to pivot. This year more than any other feels like rookies are job security vs scoring potential, so any that can be both (eg, the Ziebells and Danihers of the world) are gold!

 

[NT.Thunder]

Agree with this.

Phillips has a season averaging 90ppg behind a midfield of Pendlebury, Treloar, Sidebottom and Adams. So in comparison an injury prone JOM, an injury prone Wingard, a young gun in Worpel and a potentially underdone Titch hardly stacks up against the aforementioned.

I'm pretty confident in using that 2018 formline and assuming his best is better than 90ppg with more opportunities and also with the rule changes suiting his style of play.

He's one I'm happy to watch as I feel he can do more damage to my team starting him and him not performing over leaving him out and him scoring well. Upgrade at best and can be used as a correction trade round 3 if needed.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I wouldn't read too much into being named on-ball, especially as he could well be on the bench when teams are finalised tonight, instead of Curnow.

He will get the 4th highest amount of CBA's tonight (behind Cripps, Walsh, Curnow)
Williams will replace his role next week, but Dow should still remain in the Round 2 side, unless Martin is back as well and/or LOB/Fogarty impress tonight.

I don't think him having a great role means that much, when a key part of it is replacing Williams tonight.

I won't be picking him... I can live with a score of 80 tonight, knowing his JS/role/scoring potential are all shaky from Round 2 onwards.

4rh highest CBAs for Carlton but I suggest there will be plenty of tiger names ahead on that list also.

 

[jaca]

It's a funny situation.

On one hand their price , potential and JS is a bonus on the other hand they could be seen as a annoying price.

Seems to be plenty of forward rookies available so I guess you then have to weigh Ziebell etc up against other lines.

Forward rookies look strong

Ruck rookies strong.

Mid rookies questionable.

Even have defender rookies (albeit more expensive)

Just need to balance it all out.

I guess the big unknown with Ziebell is he is playing a completely different position for the first time in his career.

Taking on Clark in Def means I have to compromise somewhere. I don't want that to be in Mid, or Ruck, and I've shuffled my Def Premiums a bit. I ideally want 2 Fwd premiums - had Dunkley and Zorko for ages - now leaning Danger over Zorko...

 

[Herbie66]

Taking on Clark in Def means I have to compromise somewhere. I don't want that to be in Mid, or Ruck, and I've shuffled my Def Premiums a bit. I ideally want 2 Fwd premiums - had Dunkley and Zorko for ages - now leaning Danger over Zorko...

3 rookie Rucks 😀

I guess with what is starting to happen

4 - 5 - 1 - 3 or 2 appears the right starting balance

Heap of $ 225 - $ 275 k players available , think we need 4 to allow the cash elsewhere.

Rookies are their just whether people want to pick them or not.

 

[N29]

He's one I'm happy to watch as I feel he can do more damage to my team starting him and him not performing over leaving him out and him scoring well. Upgrade at best and can be used as a correction trade round 3 if needed.

Yeah hard to disagree with that, if you are going for a more guns and rookie approach that is probably the play.

 

[Herbie66]

I feel you! I've gone Ziebell F1 to aving him at F3 behind Danger and Dunkley.

Shows the upside of staying flexible.. but also having plans for each different structure so there is an easy starting point if you need to pivot. This year more than any other feels like rookies are job security vs scoring potential, so any that can be both (eg, the Ziebells and Danihers of the world) are gold!

Spot on , will keep them at F4 & F5 at the moment , if 2 forward rookies I don't have after Round 2 look must haves I can make adjustments (depending on how my 3 rookie Rucks are looking after 2 rounds).

Almost could go Daniher - > rookie , Ziebell - > must have For breakout easily enough.

Mid rookies are looking the problem atm , not sure if Campbell at M6 will work.

 

[PC]

Spot on , will keep them at F4 & F5 at the moment , if 2 forward rookies I don't have after Round 2 look must haves I can make adjustments (depending on how my 3 rookie Rucks are looking after 2 rounds).

Almost could go Daniher - > rookie , Ziebell - > must have For breakout easily enough.

Mid rookies are looking the problem atm , not sure if Campbell at M6 will work.

Campbell is at M7 for me atm

 

[Herbie66]

Campbell is at M7 for me atm

M8 for me 😀

Changed him from M9 so he had better live up to expectations.

Mind you if I decide I need Powell he could be F6.

 

[SuchIsLife]

What is the verdict on Dusty? My next premium in line, but will have to sacrifise a lot to get him.

What are people expecting him to average and how is he likely to be affected by the rule changes?

 

[Borris]

After having Daniher the entire preseason I’m now beginning to wonder why/how he is a better option than Dow or a Rookie.

His scoring history is terrible and his durability even worse... I guess I was lured by the idea he might pump out a 5 goal 120+ score and he has great JS. Nothing like questioning everything at the 11th hour

 

[NT.Thunder]

What is the verdict on Dusty? My next premium in line, but will have to sacrifise a lot to get him.

What are people expecting him to average and how is he likely to be affected by the rule changes?

I've never been really big on Dusty, don't get me wrong I reckon he's a great player but this season I just feel will be one of his best. Can't base that on anything, maturity maybe, looks happy just feel he'll push for a Brownlow this season.

 

[Dimmawit]

He's one I'm happy to watch as I feel he can do more damage to my team starting him and him not performing over leaving him out and him scoring well. Upgrade at best and can be used as a correction trade round 3 if needed.

This

 

[SuchIsLife]

I've never been really big on Dusty, don't get me wrong I reckon he's a great player but this season I just feel will be one of his best. Can't base that on anything, maturity maybe, looks happy just feel he'll push for a Brownlow this season.

Do you support this idea that Martin scores better in latter half, and may be cheaper during the season with more volatility in his scoring?

I think it makes sense in theory, but the empirical evidence hasn't been as strong.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Do you support this idea that Martin scores better in latter half, and may be cheaper during the season with more volatility in his scoring?

I think it makes sense in theory, but the empirical evidence hasn't been as strong.

There's no doubt he plays better in big games, I just think he'll get that big game feeling now given last year games were played without crowds so 50000 tonight will feel like a GF.

Or he'll drink a dozen beers before the game and spud, I'm not sure!

 

[wogitalia]

Dow named on ball......
hmmm
The fact that he was average in the trail games and still gets a start has me thinking his role is secure.?

Any Carlton Supporters, will he be given time to develop into the role.?

Average is a bit harsh. He was phenomenal in the first trial game and average in the AAMI game.

Role was relatively consistent between the two.

Williams will eat into his role tonight but he was quite clearly the guy behind Cripps, Walsh and Williams, so should still be their 4th mid.

For mine Dow is that really tough decision though. Basically if you start him and he's golden, you're so far ahead because no one else can get him, on the flipside if he fails he opens up every rookie option. From that point of view he's kind of the lowest risk rookie pick style.

Of course the flipside is you're down a trade and probably could use the 80k on something else that might actually be more beneficial!

Do you support this idea that Martin scores better in latter half, and may be cheaper during the season with more volatility in his scoring?

I think it makes sense in theory, but the empirical evidence hasn't been as strong.

He's been at least $64,600 cheaper than his starting price by round 10 in every season since 2016 with a peak of $173,900 in the 2018 season and an average of $94,960. I don't know what more empirical evidence than that you need to consider it strong to be honest.

Past performance isn't an indicator of future outcomes and I actually like Martin as the nice and safe starting pick, he's going to average 95+ barring injury, he's rarely missed games and he could well average 110 if he has a big year but he's also been consistently available for a lot less than his starting prices and all those things still make him a great upgrade target!

 

[Montyjnr]

After having Daniher the entire preseason I’m now beginning to wonder why/how he is a better option than Dow or a Rookie.

His scoring history is terrible and his durability even worse... I guess I was lured by the idea he might pump out a 5 goal 120+ score and he has great JS. Nothing like questioning everything at the 11th hour

Daniher is Tanner Bruhn... for 75k more with poor durability and no DPP

(yes I know Bruhn isn't a key forward)